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Doing this early again and it might become the norm. Sucks, cuz I put Patriots in last week, then changed my mind afterwards, but these are small plays so I'll live. Last week 3-2 plays, 2-0 leans.
Note I saw an online book mention that Week 6 was the worst losing week in the history of the company because every favorite covered except 1. Public killed it. Guess it evened out from the first couple of weeks where dogs were covering everything.
Plays:
New Orleans +1.5 (L4) vs. Denver (L1). Pretty crappy matchup, even for a Thursday game. Lean the dog for probability mainly. We never know which Denver is gonna show up, and we don't know who the QB for New Orleans will be yet as of this moment. Derek Carr very likely to be out again, and the choice is between the backups. Both QBs looked bad last game.
Minnesota -2 (W5) vs. Detroit (W3). Big matchup early on in the season. Detroit just looked better spectacular last week, so I've gotta fade that for now. Minnesota is 5-0, but I could see some people calling them frauds. Sam Darnold looked terrible in the second half last week. Almost blew a 17-0 lead.
NY Giants +3.5 (L1) vs. Philly (W1). If Nabers isn't back by this game, something is seriously wrong. If Washington is going to win the division this year as I suspect, Philly and Dallas will have to keep treading water. I'll take the Giants here. Might have to do it pretty often this season, and it's gonna be gross.
San Fran -1 (W1) vs. KC (W3). Andy Reid off a bye against the C-MACless Niners that are a good, but not great team. Feel like the Chiefs will get getting a lot of love this week, and it's probably the primetime 4 PM game. Will take a shot on the Niners. Slipping to 3-4 wouldn't be the end of the world for the Niners in a division with Seattle, LA Rams, and Arizona, but they really need to stay above water.
NY Jets -1.5 (L3) at Pittsburgh (W1). I wonder how much Rodgers inflation there is here. It's a pickem matchup, but the Steelers should be the ones giving points here. Will roll with the Jets here.
Baltimore (O2) / TB (O3) UNDER 48. I expected this total to be in the 50s with the way both of these offenses look. Not a game you should take early as I see this total only going up from here. Tampa Bay's defense steps up on Monday Nights.
LA Chargers ML (W1) at Arizona (L1). The late night MNF game is usually where you take the underdog, but as I said last week, I'm big on the Chargers this season. Bo Nix had 2 rushing TDs last week, so you would think that Kyler Murray would have similar success. However, Arizona's offense really depends on both Murray and Conner being successful and the Chargers haven't really let RBs beat them too much lately. I think this one is worth taking the ML as opposed to giving up less than a FG. Feels like the points could matter here.
Leans:
Cleveland +5 (W1) vs. Cincy (W1). Not ready to pull the trigger yet on this one, but looking.
System Plays: (0-0), Half System Plays (0-1)
TBD
NCAA Football Notepad:
Western Kentucky +2.5
Marshall -10
OK St. +10
Lou/MIA OVER 61
Michigan -3
Charlotte +17
Georgia/Texas Over 56
SMU Stanford OVER 54.5
Utah -4.5
2024
7-5 Plays, 2-1 Leans
2023
39-39-2 Plays, 26-25 Leans, System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-4)
Playoffs 6-4 Plays, 4-1 Leans
2022
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
Playoffs 8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2021
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans; Playoffs 3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans
2020
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans; Playoffs 6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
Note I saw an online book mention that Week 6 was the worst losing week in the history of the company because every favorite covered except 1. Public killed it. Guess it evened out from the first couple of weeks where dogs were covering everything.
Plays:
New Orleans +1.5 (L4) vs. Denver (L1). Pretty crappy matchup, even for a Thursday game. Lean the dog for probability mainly. We never know which Denver is gonna show up, and we don't know who the QB for New Orleans will be yet as of this moment. Derek Carr very likely to be out again, and the choice is between the backups. Both QBs looked bad last game.
Minnesota -2 (W5) vs. Detroit (W3). Big matchup early on in the season. Detroit just looked better spectacular last week, so I've gotta fade that for now. Minnesota is 5-0, but I could see some people calling them frauds. Sam Darnold looked terrible in the second half last week. Almost blew a 17-0 lead.
NY Giants +3.5 (L1) vs. Philly (W1). If Nabers isn't back by this game, something is seriously wrong. If Washington is going to win the division this year as I suspect, Philly and Dallas will have to keep treading water. I'll take the Giants here. Might have to do it pretty often this season, and it's gonna be gross.
San Fran -1 (W1) vs. KC (W3). Andy Reid off a bye against the C-MACless Niners that are a good, but not great team. Feel like the Chiefs will get getting a lot of love this week, and it's probably the primetime 4 PM game. Will take a shot on the Niners. Slipping to 3-4 wouldn't be the end of the world for the Niners in a division with Seattle, LA Rams, and Arizona, but they really need to stay above water.
NY Jets -1.5 (L3) at Pittsburgh (W1). I wonder how much Rodgers inflation there is here. It's a pickem matchup, but the Steelers should be the ones giving points here. Will roll with the Jets here.
Baltimore (O2) / TB (O3) UNDER 48. I expected this total to be in the 50s with the way both of these offenses look. Not a game you should take early as I see this total only going up from here. Tampa Bay's defense steps up on Monday Nights.
LA Chargers ML (W1) at Arizona (L1). The late night MNF game is usually where you take the underdog, but as I said last week, I'm big on the Chargers this season. Bo Nix had 2 rushing TDs last week, so you would think that Kyler Murray would have similar success. However, Arizona's offense really depends on both Murray and Conner being successful and the Chargers haven't really let RBs beat them too much lately. I think this one is worth taking the ML as opposed to giving up less than a FG. Feels like the points could matter here.
Leans:
Cleveland +5 (W1) vs. Cincy (W1). Not ready to pull the trigger yet on this one, but looking.
System Plays: (0-0), Half System Plays (0-1)
TBD
NCAA Football Notepad:
Western Kentucky +2.5
Marshall -10
OK St. +10
Lou/MIA OVER 61
Michigan -3
Charlotte +17
Georgia/Texas Over 56
SMU Stanford OVER 54.5
Utah -4.5
2024
7-5 Plays, 2-1 Leans
2023
39-39-2 Plays, 26-25 Leans, System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-4)
Playoffs 6-4 Plays, 4-1 Leans
2022
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
Playoffs 8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2021
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans; Playoffs 3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans
2020
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans; Playoffs 6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
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