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Starting this week early due to scheduling. May have to put my stuff in really early this week. Again, will be playing a lot of primetime games this season, which isn't my specialty. Primetime games will almost always be small plays unless otherwise noted.
Last week 4-3 plays, 1-1 leans. I'll count the prop as a loss, but man that stunk. I lost 4 actual minutes into the game with 1 first down and a 55 yard field goal in the pouring rain
. Then Pittsburgh scores on the very next possession.
San Fran -3 (L1) at Seattle (L2). Not an easy one to pick as both teams stunk it up last week against inferior teams. San Fran just stunk in the second half. Seattle stunk the whole game until the last 5-6 mins. San Fran has won the last 5 meetings by at least 8 or more. I think it's a fair line with the Niners giving 3 on the road at a division rival losing 3 out of 4. San Fran is always overpriced, but it's a decent spot to take them.
Washington +6.5 (W4) at. Baltimore (W3). I was one Washington stop away from hitting that under with Deshaun Watson on 4th and 7 and of course he throws the TD pass
. I think Baltimore has the cover for most of the game, but Washington backdoors it. Just feels like one of those games.
Green Bay -5 (W1) vs. Arizona (W1). Maybe I'm living too much off last season, but I'm big on Green Bay this year. The offense was not clicking last week, but the defense has been under the radar this season. Romeo Doubs should be back I assume. Watson likely still out, but he's always hurt anyways. Fading the 13 point second half comeback from Arizona against San Fran.
LA Chargers -3 (L2) at Denver (W3). Also big on the Chargers this season. Denver off a blowout win, and Chargers off 2 losses. Harbaugh off a bye sounds good to me with another week to rest up Herbert's ankle, and the return of Quentin Johnston.
New Orleans +3.5 (L3) vs. Tampa Bay (L1). Surprised this line is even up with the Carr injury. I'll chance it early in the week. New Orleans has a good defense, and that backup didn't look too bad either. Just KC was sending blitzes at him at the end of the game. Will also look at an under here, but just Saints for now.
Edit: Carr expected to miss multiple weeks. Will roll with the backup at home in this one. And surprisingly, it's not the guy that played at the end of Monday night. It's Spencer Rattler.
Leans:
Chicago -2 (W2) vs. Jax (W1) (Neutral). First look at the Bears this season. I'm kind of a Caleb Williams hater, but I like the Bears first glance. Could change tomorrow.
CIN/NYG. Tough game as I was thinking that I'd take the Giants to win a few a row with that defense of theirs. Cincy's season is very much on the line here, and I could see the public pounding that angle. But others have every right to justify the Giants defense shutting them down. Thinking I'll cop out and just take Giants team total UNDER 23.5 which seems awfully high for the Giants.
Team totals weren't available when I put it in, so I put in Cincy first to 20 pts -135. Seems like a sucker bet, but it was small.
Edit: Malik Nabers is out again following the concussion.Makes the line even more shady now. I would not touch the side anymore, but I already have a tiny play on Cincy first to 20 pts. Will leave it a lean here.
BUF -2.5 (L2) at NY Jets (L2). Another very tough game. Rodgers showed his age last week, got hurt, and his O-Line couldn't give him any time to throw. Buffalo put up another stinker two weeks in a row after being anointed the best team in the league following their beatdown of Jacksonville. Buffalo had a lot more question marks this season. Rodgers was coming off an injury, but he doesn't run, and I believe everyone assumed with that defense and Garrett Wilson, the Jets could be on their way to a division title.
Will lean Buffalo here.
No Play:
New England +6.5 (L4) vs. Houston (W2). Nico Collins is suppose to be out multiple weeks. This is me betting against the injured player team again, which messed me up last week. New England is just pathetic on offense though. Losing Nico is a huge deal even if Houston still has Diggs and other weapons. Leave it a lean for now. Don't really want to put any money on New England any time soon.
Edit: Drake Maye in now, and the line goes up to +7 with Nico Collins out. That's suspect. Moving this to a no play.
System Plays:
Half System Play: Arizona +5.5.
I already have Green Bay as a play, but the system tracking is for record keeping purposes.
2024
4-3 Plays, 1-1 Leans
2023
39-39-2 Plays, 26-25 Leans, System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-4)
Playoffs 6-4 Plays, 4-1 Leans
2022
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
Playoffs 8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2021
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans; Playoffs 3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans
2020
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans; Playoffs 6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
Last week 4-3 plays, 1-1 leans. I'll count the prop as a loss, but man that stunk. I lost 4 actual minutes into the game with 1 first down and a 55 yard field goal in the pouring rain
. Then Pittsburgh scores on the very next possession.San Fran -3 (L1) at Seattle (L2). Not an easy one to pick as both teams stunk it up last week against inferior teams. San Fran just stunk in the second half. Seattle stunk the whole game until the last 5-6 mins. San Fran has won the last 5 meetings by at least 8 or more. I think it's a fair line with the Niners giving 3 on the road at a division rival losing 3 out of 4. San Fran is always overpriced, but it's a decent spot to take them.
Washington +6.5 (W4) at. Baltimore (W3). I was one Washington stop away from hitting that under with Deshaun Watson on 4th and 7 and of course he throws the TD pass
. I think Baltimore has the cover for most of the game, but Washington backdoors it. Just feels like one of those games.Green Bay -5 (W1) vs. Arizona (W1). Maybe I'm living too much off last season, but I'm big on Green Bay this year. The offense was not clicking last week, but the defense has been under the radar this season. Romeo Doubs should be back I assume. Watson likely still out, but he's always hurt anyways. Fading the 13 point second half comeback from Arizona against San Fran.
LA Chargers -3 (L2) at Denver (W3). Also big on the Chargers this season. Denver off a blowout win, and Chargers off 2 losses. Harbaugh off a bye sounds good to me with another week to rest up Herbert's ankle, and the return of Quentin Johnston.
New Orleans +3.5 (L3) vs. Tampa Bay (L1). Surprised this line is even up with the Carr injury. I'll chance it early in the week. New Orleans has a good defense, and that backup didn't look too bad either. Just KC was sending blitzes at him at the end of the game. Will also look at an under here, but just Saints for now.
Edit: Carr expected to miss multiple weeks. Will roll with the backup at home in this one. And surprisingly, it's not the guy that played at the end of Monday night. It's Spencer Rattler.
Leans:
Chicago -2 (W2) vs. Jax (W1) (Neutral). First look at the Bears this season. I'm kind of a Caleb Williams hater, but I like the Bears first glance. Could change tomorrow.
CIN/NYG. Tough game as I was thinking that I'd take the Giants to win a few a row with that defense of theirs. Cincy's season is very much on the line here, and I could see the public pounding that angle. But others have every right to justify the Giants defense shutting them down. Thinking I'll cop out and just take Giants team total UNDER 23.5 which seems awfully high for the Giants.
Team totals weren't available when I put it in, so I put in Cincy first to 20 pts -135. Seems like a sucker bet, but it was small.
Edit: Malik Nabers is out again following the concussion.Makes the line even more shady now. I would not touch the side anymore, but I already have a tiny play on Cincy first to 20 pts. Will leave it a lean here.
BUF -2.5 (L2) at NY Jets (L2). Another very tough game. Rodgers showed his age last week, got hurt, and his O-Line couldn't give him any time to throw. Buffalo put up another stinker two weeks in a row after being anointed the best team in the league following their beatdown of Jacksonville. Buffalo had a lot more question marks this season. Rodgers was coming off an injury, but he doesn't run, and I believe everyone assumed with that defense and Garrett Wilson, the Jets could be on their way to a division title.
Will lean Buffalo here.
No Play:
New England +6.5 (L4) vs. Houston (W2). Nico Collins is suppose to be out multiple weeks. This is me betting against the injured player team again, which messed me up last week. New England is just pathetic on offense though. Losing Nico is a huge deal even if Houston still has Diggs and other weapons. Leave it a lean for now. Don't really want to put any money on New England any time soon.
Edit: Drake Maye in now, and the line goes up to +7 with Nico Collins out. That's suspect. Moving this to a no play.
System Plays:
Half System Play: Arizona +5.5.
I already have Green Bay as a play, but the system tracking is for record keeping purposes.
2024
4-3 Plays, 1-1 Leans
2023
39-39-2 Plays, 26-25 Leans, System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-4)
Playoffs 6-4 Plays, 4-1 Leans
2022
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
Playoffs 8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2021
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans; Playoffs 3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans
2020
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans; Playoffs 6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs