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First post of the season. Unfortunately, life has gotten into the way and I haven't had time to play or post. Finishing up on baseball season where I had a large future on the Yankees winning the division, and later the number one seed that cashed.
So my write-ups this season may be short, and the picks not well thought out. We'll see how it goes. Last week I picked 4 games just randomly, and unofficially went 0-3-1. Hopefully this week goes better.
I put these in already, but I'll only list my strong as plays. Gave them a tiny bit of thought. Also an FYI, that I'll probably be putting tiny plays in on all the primetime games for fun. Primetime games are not my specialty, and I usually do bad with them, so you've been warned.
Plays:
Seattle -6 (L1) vs. NY Giants (L1). Very surprised that Malik Nabers has made such an impact so early on in his career. The guy is a stud, and may even keep the Giants competitive this season. Unfortunately for him, he suffered a concussion late last game and didn’t practice yet today. This makes me think he doesn’t play.
Normally I would play the team missing the star player, so the pick scares me a bit, but I’m going with it. I feel a little bit better that Seattle played in primetime on Monday and couldn’t stop anything Detroit was doing offensively. Hopefully the Giants revert back to the team they were before Nabers came aboard.
I expect a 28-6 or a 28-14 game if the Giants get a late garbage TD.
Edit: Nabers confirmed out.
Miami +1 (L3) at New England (L3). Two struggling teams. I've bet New England every time they've played Miami for the last couple of years, and they always keep it close, but fall short by the end. Line moved to Miami -1 now, with their third string QB, after an embarrassing Monday night performance at home against the Titans. Like Miami to save their season here. An 0-5 start would be hard to overcome, even if they were the Kansas City Chiefs.
Bills (U1) /Texans (U3) UNDER 47.5. I like this play less now that Khalil Shakir is out. He was the #1 receiver for Buffalo. I just see a 23-20 type game here.
Cleveland (U3) / Washington (O2) UNDER 44.5. Most Washington hype I've heard in 13 years since RG3's rookie year. I just think this level is unsustainable for Daniels, and I expect Baltimore to be big favorites against Washington next week and for them to get the backdoor cover. I see one team in the 20s and the other in the teens. Daniels hasn't played a real defense yet other than the Giants who kept him in check.
Raiders (U1) /Broncos (U3) UNDER 36.5. I just saw these two teams and thought MESS. Raiders have Davante Adams asking for a trade, and their coach being accused of taking recruits to the strip club at his last job. And the Broncos are just a mess offensively. One, or both of these teams is going to look really bad this game, and I think that's enough to keep it under.
Saints (O1) / Chiefs (U2) UNDER 43.5. I kinda like the Saints to cover, and if they do, I imagine they'll have to keep the Chiefs offense in check to do it. I don't expect another 44-19 type game like when the Saints played Dallas.
Green Bay -3 (L1) at LA Rams (L1). Maybe a little square with how poorly the Rams have played this season. But it's a fair line with Green Bay favored on the road and missing arguably their two top wide receivers (Watson - Ankle, Doubs - Suspension personal).
I put all of these in on Tuesday. Looks like the line has moved in my favor on all of them.
Leans:
JAX (U1) /INDY (O1) OVER 45. I thought about this play, but ultimately passed. Last 3 meetings have all hit 50+ and gone way over the total. So the over is a bit square of a play based on that. However, Jacksonville has looked terrible for most of the year, and I don't really trust Indy to stop anyone ever. Joe Flacco is 6-1 o/u the last 7 games he's played in.
Dallas / Pittsburgh SNF. Had a really hard time picking this game. Let it be known that I'm picking Washington to win the division this year. Philly has major issues, and I saw the line for Dallas making the playoffs after the Saints game. They were pickem, which is shocking for a team that won the division last year, won 12 games the last 3 seasons and is running it back with a similar team with the Eagles struggling, and the other 2 teams in their way are the Giants with Daniel Jones and Washington who had the #2 pick in the draft.
I wanted to take the Steelers, but I backed off. I ended up playing a prop, which doesn't really count as a play, so I put it in as a lean.
Pittsburgh Steelers score first -125. I think they kick a FG to take the lead early.
Also curious to know what the o/u win total was for Washington before the season started. I wanted to take the over on that but forgot to. I assume it was in the 6.5 to 7.5 range. Edit: It was 6.5. Missed the boat on that one. It's 8.5 heavy juice, 9.5 plus juice right now.
System Plays:
No system plays yet this season through 5 weeks.
2023
39-39-2 Plays, 26-25 Leans, System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-4)
Playoffs 6-4 Plays, 4-1 Leans
2022
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
Playoffs 8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2021
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans; Playoffs 3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans
2020
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans; Playoffs 6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
So my write-ups this season may be short, and the picks not well thought out. We'll see how it goes. Last week I picked 4 games just randomly, and unofficially went 0-3-1. Hopefully this week goes better.
I put these in already, but I'll only list my strong as plays. Gave them a tiny bit of thought. Also an FYI, that I'll probably be putting tiny plays in on all the primetime games for fun. Primetime games are not my specialty, and I usually do bad with them, so you've been warned.
Plays:
Seattle -6 (L1) vs. NY Giants (L1). Very surprised that Malik Nabers has made such an impact so early on in his career. The guy is a stud, and may even keep the Giants competitive this season. Unfortunately for him, he suffered a concussion late last game and didn’t practice yet today. This makes me think he doesn’t play.
Normally I would play the team missing the star player, so the pick scares me a bit, but I’m going with it. I feel a little bit better that Seattle played in primetime on Monday and couldn’t stop anything Detroit was doing offensively. Hopefully the Giants revert back to the team they were before Nabers came aboard.
I expect a 28-6 or a 28-14 game if the Giants get a late garbage TD.
Edit: Nabers confirmed out.
Miami +1 (L3) at New England (L3). Two struggling teams. I've bet New England every time they've played Miami for the last couple of years, and they always keep it close, but fall short by the end. Line moved to Miami -1 now, with their third string QB, after an embarrassing Monday night performance at home against the Titans. Like Miami to save their season here. An 0-5 start would be hard to overcome, even if they were the Kansas City Chiefs.
Bills (U1) /Texans (U3) UNDER 47.5. I like this play less now that Khalil Shakir is out. He was the #1 receiver for Buffalo. I just see a 23-20 type game here.
Cleveland (U3) / Washington (O2) UNDER 44.5. Most Washington hype I've heard in 13 years since RG3's rookie year. I just think this level is unsustainable for Daniels, and I expect Baltimore to be big favorites against Washington next week and for them to get the backdoor cover. I see one team in the 20s and the other in the teens. Daniels hasn't played a real defense yet other than the Giants who kept him in check.
Raiders (U1) /Broncos (U3) UNDER 36.5. I just saw these two teams and thought MESS. Raiders have Davante Adams asking for a trade, and their coach being accused of taking recruits to the strip club at his last job. And the Broncos are just a mess offensively. One, or both of these teams is going to look really bad this game, and I think that's enough to keep it under.
Saints (O1) / Chiefs (U2) UNDER 43.5. I kinda like the Saints to cover, and if they do, I imagine they'll have to keep the Chiefs offense in check to do it. I don't expect another 44-19 type game like when the Saints played Dallas.
Green Bay -3 (L1) at LA Rams (L1). Maybe a little square with how poorly the Rams have played this season. But it's a fair line with Green Bay favored on the road and missing arguably their two top wide receivers (Watson - Ankle, Doubs - Suspension personal).
I put all of these in on Tuesday. Looks like the line has moved in my favor on all of them.
Leans:
JAX (U1) /INDY (O1) OVER 45. I thought about this play, but ultimately passed. Last 3 meetings have all hit 50+ and gone way over the total. So the over is a bit square of a play based on that. However, Jacksonville has looked terrible for most of the year, and I don't really trust Indy to stop anyone ever. Joe Flacco is 6-1 o/u the last 7 games he's played in.
Dallas / Pittsburgh SNF. Had a really hard time picking this game. Let it be known that I'm picking Washington to win the division this year. Philly has major issues, and I saw the line for Dallas making the playoffs after the Saints game. They were pickem, which is shocking for a team that won the division last year, won 12 games the last 3 seasons and is running it back with a similar team with the Eagles struggling, and the other 2 teams in their way are the Giants with Daniel Jones and Washington who had the #2 pick in the draft.
I wanted to take the Steelers, but I backed off. I ended up playing a prop, which doesn't really count as a play, so I put it in as a lean.
Pittsburgh Steelers score first -125. I think they kick a FG to take the lead early.
Also curious to know what the o/u win total was for Washington before the season started. I wanted to take the over on that but forgot to. I assume it was in the 6.5 to 7.5 range. Edit: It was 6.5. Missed the boat on that one. It's 8.5 heavy juice, 9.5 plus juice right now.
System Plays:
No system plays yet this season through 5 weeks.
2023
39-39-2 Plays, 26-25 Leans, System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-4)
Playoffs 6-4 Plays, 4-1 Leans
2022
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
Playoffs 8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2021
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans; Playoffs 3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans
2020
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans; Playoffs 6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs