NFL 2024

[RBD]

Back with some picks and reasons when I get a chance.
For now, I love betting against teams with divisions in the locker room. I'll explain next time in.

T Bay -3, -118

[RBD]

During the preseason I made an early buy in a homepage column, taking Denver for half a unit, wanted to see who was QB for Seattle before I bet the second half.
Just put the second half in, Denver +6.

Will have at least one or two more plays posted here later today.

Good luck everybody!

[RBD]

Record; 1-0

Review: Stories about in-fighting taking place in the Redskin's locker room was reason enough for me to buy TB, regardless of any stats for either team.
And the Bucs won by 17, covering by 13.
NEVER underestimate the necessity of total focus on the task at hand required to win at the NFL level. Any distractions have to be a part of your 'capping on a game.

Sorry I didn't make it back in with any additional picks last week as stated.
Have an early buy to share today - Zeke Ov 39' yards from our sponsor Bovada.

Elliot led the 'Boys in carries last week, and I expect it to be the same this week.
Last week he ran for 40 yds on 10 carries against a tough Cleveland run D (#1 rush D in the NFL last year.)
This week he should find the sledding a little easier facing the Saints.
The 39' might be an overreaction to NO giving up just 52 yards to Carolina last week but down 17-0 at the end of Q1 and 30-0 at halftime the Panthers had no choice but to abandon the run game.

I think 39' is a bad number. Ten or more carries with one decent breakout of 12 or more yards and and an avg of 3 per carry should should get this number over what I need.

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 1-1

Review: Lost with the Zeke prop, not even close.

One of these days I'm going to learn to not play for revenge.
Today is not that day.

Sunday morning added play:
J Williams Ov 51', -120 rec yds
Highest total on the board, expect lots of passing and Williams to get his share.
He's had 79 and 121 in his first two games for an average of 100. I don't think the books have adjusted properly with a number like 51'.

Plays:
J Williams Ov 51', -120 rec yds
Elliot Under 32' rushing yards, -114

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1
Record: 2-2
Review: Got a little revenge with the Zak prop, lost with Williams.

If you think tonight's Sea/Det game will NOT be a blowout by the Hawk's I have a pop bet for you.
Geno Smith Rush Yds Ov

G. Smith's 2024 game log looks like this:
4 rushes for 30 yds Den
5 for 8 yds NE
2 for -2 yds Mia

Only one of those (vs Den) surpasses tonight's #; 9'
But 5 attempts like he had with NE will usually see more then 10 yds.
And toss out the Miami game. Seattle was up by 17 in the first quarter and Mia didn't score again. With the game secure Geno didn't HAVE to run.
Tonight I don't expect a cake-walk for Seattle like they had vs the Fish.
I expect a close game where Smith will be doing a fair bit of running/scrambling to get away from Hutchinson and the boys.

Opposing QB's rush #'s vs Det:
Den 4 for 30
TB 5 for 35
Az 5/45
All > 9'.
I'm pretty sure former Wash and current Sea O coordinator Ryan Grubb knows those #'s.
Yes - Geno is NOT Nix, Mayfield, or Murray, but I'm banking on Grubb putting in at least one designed play call for his QB.
What this bet is looking for is at least one designed QB run, a close game in the second half, a play with the Detroit D having Smith-Njigba and Metcalf well covered,
and Geno scrambling around before finally tucking the ball in and finding some open space for a rush that's good enough to get us Ov this #.

And if you're into historical stuff, there's this:
G. Smith @ Det 2022: 3 rushes for 20 yds
G. Smith @ Det 2023: 7 rushes for 49 yds
Both > 9'.


Buy Recommendation:
You can get this at 10', -120 or 9' -122. For the extra two cents take the 9' (but that's just my two cents.)

Update: Just went to put in my bet my and it's now Ov 8' -124. I'll use 9' since that's the common #, easy to find.

Today's play:
G.Smith Ov 9', -122

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 3-2
Review: I didn't want to jinx the post when I entered it so I left out the line, "I used to make odds in Vegas. I know a bad line when I see one."
They hung a 9' on Geno.
I know a bad line when I see one.
He had scrambles of 12 yards, 11, and 11.
Each of those three plays alone topped the books 9'.
He finished with 38, four X the book's number.

Too bad I can't see more of those.

In the homepage, I mentioned there's three asterisk picks this week. Here is the record for this play:
NFL 0-5
WNBA 3-6
College football 5-8
A combined 8-19, 70% Fade.

Three teams qualify, Tenn, Car, NYJ.

I used Atlanta for my homepage pic, Fading Carolina.
In the column I mentioned I'd post the other ones here in case anyone was looking for angles on the games.
I may buy one of the other two later today, if I do I'll post it here. In the meantime I'm off to look for some props.

Good luck with your bets today.

[RBD]

Record: 3-2

As noted in my homepage column for this week, here are the Fade teams derived from the methods I use to determine Wrong Favs.

WF1: Seattle, Det, LV, Az.
WF1 record: Hm 1-7, Rd 7-12.

WF2: NO, Cle, NYG, Pit, TB, Az.
WF2 record: Hm 5-15, Rd 1-1

Info purposes only, if I buy any I'll posted as a recommended play here.

Here's the top of the NFL page in my notebook for this week.
IMG_20241017_104133.jpg

[RBD]

IMG_20241024_094842.jpg <- Here's today's page from my logbook.

Here's an update on a play I have, the ASTERISK play ("When WF2 (sky blue ink) says the wrong team is favored and, WF1 says the correct team is the Fav, and WF1s point spread differential ( see 12 in orange ink) is a TD or more than WF2s, take the WF1 team.")

NFL 0-8, 100% Fade

WNBA 2-6, 75% Fade (corrected record)

College football 5-9, 64% Fade

NBA 1-2, 67% Fade

A combined 8-25, 75% Fade.

Look at the picture again.
THAT is my play for tonight.

Update: Forgot to give the #, waiting, will do a final update before kickoff.

Update: -2'

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Forum record: 3-3

Update on lines for picks from this week's two NFL articles.

Waiting to buy was the right move on the Chargers as the hook came off.
Waiting didn't help with the Detroit line, quarterback Jordan Love still listed as questionable but likely to play, no effect on the line yet, early Sunday morning.
I bought both games at the current price.

Had a choice on Detroit +3 with extra juice or -2' laying extra juice. Opted for covering myself in case it's a FG win, best price at our sponsor Bookmaker - 115.

Weather reports out of Green Bay say it's raining and will continue to do so throughout the day. This should favor the running game which in turn favors Detroit with the better offensive line (ranked number one by Pro Football Network) blocking for Montgomery and Gibbs.




LAC -1, -107
Det -2', -115

[RBD]

It's been a bad week for football so far, not just picks but for "seeing."

For picks, I missed with my one college play on Saturday. This morning I had Minnesota, who held the Jags to just seven points and I still couldn't get the cover.

Making it worse I had a bad buy on the game, something I don't usually do. It opened at -4, was -5 midweek but by the time I spotted the play it was -6'. That's what I mean by not doing a good job of seeing things clearly or soon enough.

For another example, I had two NP Unders with a 7-point differential on Saturday, 19-11 record 63%, my best college total play and my best and my most profitable play over the last four years.
I didn't see the first one and it won.

I saw the second one but posted that I'm not playing it because North Texas is 0-1 in that spot this season.
They combined with Army for 17 points. 17!!!
Missed out on two winners.

And looking at my charts for what I have left to use today I have one play left from a web page article, the Detroit game.
I have a nice profit from college basketball for the week but it'd be nice to win tonight's game to cut back on the 0-2 football. And I'm still not seeing things clearly - I'll post a picture of my chart showing tonight's play.
Notice the little symbol to the right of Detroit.
Didn't see it when I did my write-up/analysis on the game.
Like I said, not a good week for seeing things.

IMG_20241110_144008~2.jpg