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Back on track in the championship round with the 2-0, 2-0 sweep with picks and leans.
Been giving this pick a lot of thought during the past week or so. This is a rematch of Mahomes first super bowl where Kansas City won 31-21.
San Francisco had the lead late in that game 20-17 with only 5 minutes to go. KC had a clutch TD on third down with 2:44 left to take the lead. 24-20. San Francisco was actually up 10 at one point.
San Francisco was driving at the 50 yard line, but ultimately came up short. Damian Williams added a garbage 38 yard TD when he could have just fallen down and they could have iced the game 24-20. That still wasn't enough though, as the 51 points came in under the total of 52.5.
San Francisco has lost 3 in a row ATS with a blown 20-7 lead in week 18, and going down 21-14 to the Packers and 24-7 to Detroit. Previous to that, San Fran was only up 13-10 at the half against a 4 win Washington team as 14 point favorite with much to play for. So that's like a month of bad football.
Do people think it's a good thing that the Niners have come back and won the past 2 games, after not trailing to inferior opponents? The question that I pose is why were they down in the first place. They were a TD favorite in all those games.
I have much respect for Kyle Shanahan. I think he's one of the best, if not the best coach in the league. But he's already come up short twice in the Super Bowl. Blowing that 28-3 lead as the Falcon's Offensive Coordinator, and blowing the 3 point lead late in the last super bowl meeting between these 2. Is he a coach that's very good, but comes up short when it matters the most? Patrick Mahomes is no Joe Montana or Tom Brady either. KC got pummeled by Tampa Bay 3 years ago 31-9.
Kansas City has played 6 overs and 14 unders this season.
I think Kyle Shanahan lives up to his reputation as the guy that can't win the big one, and KC slips away with another Super Bowl. The narrative is too strong with Taylor Swift in attendance. There's rumors that Kelce is planning what the ring would look like in a proposal already, but it's not going to happen at the Super Bowl yet after 6 months.
I was initially leaning San Fran in this one, as the Chiefs are a big public bet for this game. However, I felt like I needed to stick with my system, which has done well in the past 10 years or so. I typically pick the team with more playoff experience that's been here before. Yes, they just played in the SB 4 years ago, but most of that team has turned over. No Jimmy G, no Mostert or Tevin Coleman, and that team had no wide receivers except a young Deebo Samuel.
I actually had the under as my stronger play earlier in the week, and I will stick with it. The under in the super bowl had won 4 years in a row until last season.
This sounds after that whole write up, but I'm going to go with:
Under 47.5 PLAY
Kansas City +2 LEAN
Subject to change in the next couple of days.
Let me also add the San Francisco -2 and San Francisco ML cost almost exactly the same, so the books are not expecting the line to matter. If San Fran wins, it'll be by at least 3. Buying KC to +3 is pretty expensive. That extra point wll cost you -158.
2023 Playoffs
5-4 plays, 3-1 leans, 0-0 System Plays
2023 Regular Season
39-39-2 Plays, 26-25 Leans
2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
Been giving this pick a lot of thought during the past week or so. This is a rematch of Mahomes first super bowl where Kansas City won 31-21.
San Francisco had the lead late in that game 20-17 with only 5 minutes to go. KC had a clutch TD on third down with 2:44 left to take the lead. 24-20. San Francisco was actually up 10 at one point.
San Francisco was driving at the 50 yard line, but ultimately came up short. Damian Williams added a garbage 38 yard TD when he could have just fallen down and they could have iced the game 24-20. That still wasn't enough though, as the 51 points came in under the total of 52.5.
San Francisco has lost 3 in a row ATS with a blown 20-7 lead in week 18, and going down 21-14 to the Packers and 24-7 to Detroit. Previous to that, San Fran was only up 13-10 at the half against a 4 win Washington team as 14 point favorite with much to play for. So that's like a month of bad football.
Do people think it's a good thing that the Niners have come back and won the past 2 games, after not trailing to inferior opponents? The question that I pose is why were they down in the first place. They were a TD favorite in all those games.
I have much respect for Kyle Shanahan. I think he's one of the best, if not the best coach in the league. But he's already come up short twice in the Super Bowl. Blowing that 28-3 lead as the Falcon's Offensive Coordinator, and blowing the 3 point lead late in the last super bowl meeting between these 2. Is he a coach that's very good, but comes up short when it matters the most? Patrick Mahomes is no Joe Montana or Tom Brady either. KC got pummeled by Tampa Bay 3 years ago 31-9.
Kansas City has played 6 overs and 14 unders this season.
I think Kyle Shanahan lives up to his reputation as the guy that can't win the big one, and KC slips away with another Super Bowl. The narrative is too strong with Taylor Swift in attendance. There's rumors that Kelce is planning what the ring would look like in a proposal already, but it's not going to happen at the Super Bowl yet after 6 months.
I was initially leaning San Fran in this one, as the Chiefs are a big public bet for this game. However, I felt like I needed to stick with my system, which has done well in the past 10 years or so. I typically pick the team with more playoff experience that's been here before. Yes, they just played in the SB 4 years ago, but most of that team has turned over. No Jimmy G, no Mostert or Tevin Coleman, and that team had no wide receivers except a young Deebo Samuel.
I actually had the under as my stronger play earlier in the week, and I will stick with it. The under in the super bowl had won 4 years in a row until last season.
This sounds after that whole write up, but I'm going to go with:
Under 47.5 PLAY
Kansas City +2 LEAN
Subject to change in the next couple of days.
Let me also add the San Francisco -2 and San Francisco ML cost almost exactly the same, so the books are not expecting the line to matter. If San Fran wins, it'll be by at least 3. Buying KC to +3 is pretty expensive. That extra point wll cost you -158.
2023 Playoffs
5-4 plays, 3-1 leans, 0-0 System Plays
2023 Regular Season
39-39-2 Plays, 26-25 Leans
2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
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