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I've been really cold lately. And I haven't been reconciling my picks, so what i bet has been different than what I posted multiple times. I didn't come back to make Kansas City an official play last week, but I did play it, so I'm going to count it as a play.
2-2 Plays last week, 0-0 Leans.
Kansas City (O1) / Baltimore (O1) UNDER 44.5. This is probably my strongest play of the weekend. Both their games went over last week. I don't really see this as a shootout type game like the Chiefs had last week, or the last 4 meetings in the Mahomes era where the total has hit around 60. I think Lamar doesn't put in a great performance this week on an individual basis, but their defense has been playing well, and they've always got the run game going.
Play on KC/BAL UNDER 44.5
Small nod to the chiefs, so I'll make that a lean for now.
Detroit (O1) / San Francisco (U1) OVER 51.5. That was a miracle over by Detroit last week, but it's the type of game we've seen from many occasions this season. Their defense can either step up big, or it's a shootout in the 30s for each team. Deebo Samuel will be back for San Francisco. He has no injury designation, but I think that may be in name only. They just don't to admit it's bothering him. But I've seen players play exceptionally well with bad shoulders. And I've seen them go down in pain like Jordan Reed.
Either way, I expect San Francisco to get back on track this week offensively. The question for me is if I expect Detroit to keep up within 7.5. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt for now as a lean.
Play on DET/SF OVER 51.5
Lean Detroit +7.5 for now.
2023 Playoffs
3-4 plays, 1-1 leans, 0-0 System Plays
2023 Regular Season
39-39-2 Plays, 26-25 Leans
2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
2-2 Plays last week, 0-0 Leans.
Kansas City (O1) / Baltimore (O1) UNDER 44.5. This is probably my strongest play of the weekend. Both their games went over last week. I don't really see this as a shootout type game like the Chiefs had last week, or the last 4 meetings in the Mahomes era where the total has hit around 60. I think Lamar doesn't put in a great performance this week on an individual basis, but their defense has been playing well, and they've always got the run game going.
Play on KC/BAL UNDER 44.5
Small nod to the chiefs, so I'll make that a lean for now.
Detroit (O1) / San Francisco (U1) OVER 51.5. That was a miracle over by Detroit last week, but it's the type of game we've seen from many occasions this season. Their defense can either step up big, or it's a shootout in the 30s for each team. Deebo Samuel will be back for San Francisco. He has no injury designation, but I think that may be in name only. They just don't to admit it's bothering him. But I've seen players play exceptionally well with bad shoulders. And I've seen them go down in pain like Jordan Reed.
Either way, I expect San Francisco to get back on track this week offensively. The question for me is if I expect Detroit to keep up within 7.5. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt for now as a lean.
Play on DET/SF OVER 51.5
Lean Detroit +7.5 for now.
2023 Playoffs
3-4 plays, 1-1 leans, 0-0 System Plays
2023 Regular Season
39-39-2 Plays, 26-25 Leans
2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
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