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Early post this week cuz I'm looking at some playoff scenarios and I wanted to jot stuff down. How about them Cardinals with the SU win vs. Philly keeping Dallas alive for the division? Definitely looking into scenarios where that happens.
Last week 2-3 Plays. 1-1 Leans.
Some playoff scenario notes I wanted to leave here:
Pittsburgh makes the playoffs if: With a win + Miami Beats Buffalo OR Houston/Indy end in a tie. (Baltimore has clinched the #1 overall seed)
Buffalo makes the playoffs with: A Win, or a loss from Jacksonville (-3.5 at Tenn) or a loss from Pittsburgh (-3.5 at Baltimore)
New Orleans makes the playoffs with: A win vs. Atlanta (-3.5 at home), AND a Tampa Bay Loss (-6 at Carolina). OR A Win vs. Atlanta, a Tampa Bay Win at Carolina, Seattle Loss (-3 at Arizona), Green Bay Loss (-3 at home vs. Bears) (ALL).
Atlanta makes the playoffs with a win vs. New Orleans (+3.5 at New Orleans), and a Tampa Bay Loss (-6 at Carolina).
Tampa Bay makes the playoffs with: A win vs. New Orleans. OR a Seattle Loss (-3 at Arizona), Green Bay Loss (-3 at home vs. Bears) (ALL).
Minnesota makes the playoffs (2.8% chance) with win vs. Detroit, AND a Seattle Loss + Green Bay Loss, AND Atlanta or Tampa Bay Loss.
Dallas wins the division with a win at Washington (-13.5), or a Philly Loss (-5.5 at Giants). So Dallas essentially locked up the division on Sunday. Nothing really to play there. Philly could lose to the Giants, and Dallas is not losing a 13.5 pt favorite at Washington.
The winner of Buffalo / Miami wins the division and a home playoff game.
The winner of the Houston / Indy game clinches a playoff birth.The season is over for the loser.
Green Bay Clinches a playoff birth with a win (-3 at home vs. Chicago)
At 8-8, Cincinnati has been eliminated from the playoffs.
I might not list them all, just the ones on games I'd like to play.
Plays:
Tampa Bay -4 (L1) at Carolina (L1). Rematch of when Carolina covered as a 3.5 pt dog in Tampa. Line adjusted because of what Tampa has on the line. I mentioned that it would come down to this game, and it did. Usually when a team has to clinch against a really bad one in the last week, it's close but that team pulls away at the end. I like Tampa to win and cover here to clinch the playoff birth. It still leaves the winner of New Orleans and Atlanta alive. Feeling a 20-13 or a 23-13 score.
This line is all the way down to 4 now, but I'm betting on Carolina to do what they've done most of the season. They keep it close enough so that they have the ability to backdoor a cover on the last drive, but their weak offense is unable to score. Hence why they are 4-10-2 ATS this season. I've used the whole "Carolina wants to win because they're giving up their #1 pick this season, so no reason to tank" theory before, but they're still 2-14, and the #1 overall pick was locked up last week. So they no longer have anything to play for either.
Atlanta +3.5 (L1) at New Orleans (W1). Atlanta has covered 4 of 5 vs. New Orleans who isn't a good home team. Rematch they played earlier this year and Atlanta won 24-15 as a 1 pt favorite at home. Atlanta just has a knack for covering against New Orleans and I like them to do it here. Atlanta is still alive in the playoffs, and would make it with a win and a Tampa Bay Loss. But I don't think that's happening.
New England -1.5 (W4) vs. NY Jets (L3). New England has beaten the Jets at least 10 times in a row and covered the last 6, and that's post Brady. New
England currently holds the #3 overall pick, and Belichick will likely be gone after this season. Bill could try and lose and set the franchise up for the future with a QB, but he's all about winning. And he's still chasing Don Shula's all time wins record. I think I read New England could drop all the way to 7th depending how it all goes. But after the top 2 QBs, you really have hit and miss QBs that weren't good until they transferred to better teams. I don't think New England cares about that, even if they need a QB. I think New England gets the win here. Ugly, close game, but they get the win.
Dallas (U4) / Washington (U1) OVER 46.5. Dallas just needs a win here to lock up the division. Washington currently holds the #2 overall pick in the draft, and I don't see that changing. Philly and Dallas both play at 4:25 so there shouldn't be resting of starters at least in the beginning. I went big on the over in the first game. In that game, basically Washington would move the ball pretty well but bleeding the clock badly while doing it and kept stalling out right around field goal range. The game only had a chance of going over because Dallas scored 3 TDs on drives that lasted around 3 minutes. The over was almost dead until Howell threw a pick 6 close to the end of the game.
This is also a rematch of Howell's first start in week 18 last year, where Dallas did not come to play and lost 26-6. Howell didn't have a good game in that one either, but was adequate because Dak Prescott was terrible.
Dallas won last week, but left a ton of points on the field. I think they want to clean that up this week. Don't want to be stumbling into the playoffs again. Sam Howell is really fighting for his job right now. Earlier this season I thought he was a lock to be the franchise QB, but he has been awful for several games. I think Dallas plays better this week, and they'll have to because I Howell wants to stake claim that he can be the starter and force the front office not to draft Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels. My prediction is that Washington will trade back and let someone else have Drake Maye. Maybe pick up Bo Nix or Daniels later on, but Washington's MO has been to pass on QBs and take best player available. That team desperately needs offensive lineman and more defense.
Miami +3 (L1) vs. Buffalo (L2). Tua got hurt in the last game, so that's something to monitor this week. Buffalo is a road favorite here because they need to win to get in (for now). If Pittsburgh or Jacksonville lose earlier in the day, this game is just for the division and home game. Not sure the motivation for that. I think I'm going to drop this to a lean or a no play. Other than the Dallas game, Miami has struggled against teams with winning records. I don't see them bucking the trend in a game that doesn't matter that much to them.
This game is making back into the play column for me. After Buffalo's struggles this season, and Tyreek Hill in a fire and supposedly in a walking boot, I think it could be somewhat of a setup to take Buffalo, and the line is creeping away from the key number at the moment. At some books you can grab Buffalo at -2.5 with a little heavy juice. I don't see the Bills winning the division after that stretch of games they had. It wouldn't be right, I see them playing on the road in the playoffs.
Indy +1.5 (W1) vs. Houston (W1). The winner of this game is in the playoffs, and the loser is eliminated. So this is basically a playoff game for both. Rematch Indy won as a 1 pt home dog 31-20 in the first meeting with a total of 40.5. Anthony Richardson started that game, but Minshew closed it out. It was in week 2 before anyone really knew how good either of these teams were. In the past, I woulda leaned Houston because I think the NFL prefers to see CJ Stroud in the playoffs. But Indy has been slowly chugging along all season winning games where the spreads have been low. I've been assuming that they'd get into the playoffs for like a month now. Don't see that changing. Houston finishes the season at 9-8, which is an absolute success for this season in Stroud's rookie year. (SATURDAY LOSER)
Leans:
Baltimore +3.5 (W3) vs. Pittsburgh (W2). Baltimore has the 1 seed locked up, and we'll see Tyler Huntley at QB I believe. I've really liked that guy in the past. Baltimore is showing explosion on offense as of late, but I think this is a low scoring game in a heated rivalry. Mason Rudolph has had a great last two games. Which is an outlier for his whole career. He's been a mid range game manager depending on the defense to keep the game lose. Taking the 3 and the hook in a rivalry game like this is the way to go I think. Also looking hard at the under. (SATURDAY LOSER)
Tenn +3.5 (L3) vs Jacksonville (W1). Rematch, Jacksonvile won 34-14 at home as a 6.5 pt favorite in the first meeting. With Pittsburgh's win yesterday, I'm beginning to think they are a destined team for the playoffs. Jacksonville is in a WIN OR GO HOME scenario with this game.
I see Pittsburgh and Buffalo both getting into the playoffs, and Miami winning the division. Buffalo only gets in the playoffs after a loss to Miami, if Jacksonville loses. Pittsburgh only gets into the playoffs if Miami beats Buffalo.
No Plays:
Minnesota +3.5 (L2, P, P, L1) at Detroit (W3). Minnesota's feel good season is about to end. Josh Dobbs was a great story for about a month. Detroit is a heavy public play because Dan Campbell insists he's gonna play his starters. In a meaningless game for them, I doubt he really does though. I may flip this pick later on, but I don't think Detroit's starters play most of the 4th qtr.
Nick Mullens makes his return as the starter after Jaren Hall stunk it up on Sunday Night. Backdoor may be open with capable Nick Mullens in.
Betting against the top seeds with nothing to play for is a crapshoot for the most part. Some just crumble, but Detroit is a disciplined, well coached team that wants to keep winning. So instead of hoping for a backdoor I'm gonna pass or even maybe take Detroit. Minnesota was in the playoff hunt for a while, and they're technically still alive I think. So that's probably all she wrote for the vikings this season. Losing Cousins and Jefferson for an extended period of time doomed their season.
This is game is a complete no play for me, and I'm leaning towards Detroit right now.
System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-4):
Nothin. Very light on the system plays this year.
2023
37-35-2 Plays, 25-24 Leans
2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
Last week 2-3 Plays. 1-1 Leans.
Some playoff scenario notes I wanted to leave here:
Pittsburgh makes the playoffs if: With a win + Miami Beats Buffalo OR Houston/Indy end in a tie. (Baltimore has clinched the #1 overall seed)
Buffalo makes the playoffs with: A Win, or a loss from Jacksonville (-3.5 at Tenn) or a loss from Pittsburgh (-3.5 at Baltimore)
New Orleans makes the playoffs with: A win vs. Atlanta (-3.5 at home), AND a Tampa Bay Loss (-6 at Carolina). OR A Win vs. Atlanta, a Tampa Bay Win at Carolina, Seattle Loss (-3 at Arizona), Green Bay Loss (-3 at home vs. Bears) (ALL).
Atlanta makes the playoffs with a win vs. New Orleans (+3.5 at New Orleans), and a Tampa Bay Loss (-6 at Carolina).
Tampa Bay makes the playoffs with: A win vs. New Orleans. OR a Seattle Loss (-3 at Arizona), Green Bay Loss (-3 at home vs. Bears) (ALL).
Minnesota makes the playoffs (2.8% chance) with win vs. Detroit, AND a Seattle Loss + Green Bay Loss, AND Atlanta or Tampa Bay Loss.
Dallas wins the division with a win at Washington (-13.5), or a Philly Loss (-5.5 at Giants). So Dallas essentially locked up the division on Sunday. Nothing really to play there. Philly could lose to the Giants, and Dallas is not losing a 13.5 pt favorite at Washington.
The winner of Buffalo / Miami wins the division and a home playoff game.
The winner of the Houston / Indy game clinches a playoff birth.The season is over for the loser.
Green Bay Clinches a playoff birth with a win (-3 at home vs. Chicago)
At 8-8, Cincinnati has been eliminated from the playoffs.
I might not list them all, just the ones on games I'd like to play.
Plays:
Tampa Bay -4 (L1) at Carolina (L1). Rematch of when Carolina covered as a 3.5 pt dog in Tampa. Line adjusted because of what Tampa has on the line. I mentioned that it would come down to this game, and it did. Usually when a team has to clinch against a really bad one in the last week, it's close but that team pulls away at the end. I like Tampa to win and cover here to clinch the playoff birth. It still leaves the winner of New Orleans and Atlanta alive. Feeling a 20-13 or a 23-13 score.
This line is all the way down to 4 now, but I'm betting on Carolina to do what they've done most of the season. They keep it close enough so that they have the ability to backdoor a cover on the last drive, but their weak offense is unable to score. Hence why they are 4-10-2 ATS this season. I've used the whole "Carolina wants to win because they're giving up their #1 pick this season, so no reason to tank" theory before, but they're still 2-14, and the #1 overall pick was locked up last week. So they no longer have anything to play for either.
Atlanta +3.5 (L1) at New Orleans (W1). Atlanta has covered 4 of 5 vs. New Orleans who isn't a good home team. Rematch they played earlier this year and Atlanta won 24-15 as a 1 pt favorite at home. Atlanta just has a knack for covering against New Orleans and I like them to do it here. Atlanta is still alive in the playoffs, and would make it with a win and a Tampa Bay Loss. But I don't think that's happening.
New England -1.5 (W4) vs. NY Jets (L3). New England has beaten the Jets at least 10 times in a row and covered the last 6, and that's post Brady. New
England currently holds the #3 overall pick, and Belichick will likely be gone after this season. Bill could try and lose and set the franchise up for the future with a QB, but he's all about winning. And he's still chasing Don Shula's all time wins record. I think I read New England could drop all the way to 7th depending how it all goes. But after the top 2 QBs, you really have hit and miss QBs that weren't good until they transferred to better teams. I don't think New England cares about that, even if they need a QB. I think New England gets the win here. Ugly, close game, but they get the win.
Dallas (U4) / Washington (U1) OVER 46.5. Dallas just needs a win here to lock up the division. Washington currently holds the #2 overall pick in the draft, and I don't see that changing. Philly and Dallas both play at 4:25 so there shouldn't be resting of starters at least in the beginning. I went big on the over in the first game. In that game, basically Washington would move the ball pretty well but bleeding the clock badly while doing it and kept stalling out right around field goal range. The game only had a chance of going over because Dallas scored 3 TDs on drives that lasted around 3 minutes. The over was almost dead until Howell threw a pick 6 close to the end of the game.
This is also a rematch of Howell's first start in week 18 last year, where Dallas did not come to play and lost 26-6. Howell didn't have a good game in that one either, but was adequate because Dak Prescott was terrible.
Dallas won last week, but left a ton of points on the field. I think they want to clean that up this week. Don't want to be stumbling into the playoffs again. Sam Howell is really fighting for his job right now. Earlier this season I thought he was a lock to be the franchise QB, but he has been awful for several games. I think Dallas plays better this week, and they'll have to because I Howell wants to stake claim that he can be the starter and force the front office not to draft Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels. My prediction is that Washington will trade back and let someone else have Drake Maye. Maybe pick up Bo Nix or Daniels later on, but Washington's MO has been to pass on QBs and take best player available. That team desperately needs offensive lineman and more defense.
Miami +3 (L1) vs. Buffalo (L2). Tua got hurt in the last game, so that's something to monitor this week. Buffalo is a road favorite here because they need to win to get in (for now). If Pittsburgh or Jacksonville lose earlier in the day, this game is just for the division and home game. Not sure the motivation for that. I think I'm going to drop this to a lean or a no play. Other than the Dallas game, Miami has struggled against teams with winning records. I don't see them bucking the trend in a game that doesn't matter that much to them.
This game is making back into the play column for me. After Buffalo's struggles this season, and Tyreek Hill in a fire and supposedly in a walking boot, I think it could be somewhat of a setup to take Buffalo, and the line is creeping away from the key number at the moment. At some books you can grab Buffalo at -2.5 with a little heavy juice. I don't see the Bills winning the division after that stretch of games they had. It wouldn't be right, I see them playing on the road in the playoffs.
Indy +1.5 (W1) vs. Houston (W1). The winner of this game is in the playoffs, and the loser is eliminated. So this is basically a playoff game for both. Rematch Indy won as a 1 pt home dog 31-20 in the first meeting with a total of 40.5. Anthony Richardson started that game, but Minshew closed it out. It was in week 2 before anyone really knew how good either of these teams were. In the past, I woulda leaned Houston because I think the NFL prefers to see CJ Stroud in the playoffs. But Indy has been slowly chugging along all season winning games where the spreads have been low. I've been assuming that they'd get into the playoffs for like a month now. Don't see that changing. Houston finishes the season at 9-8, which is an absolute success for this season in Stroud's rookie year. (SATURDAY LOSER)
Leans:
Baltimore +3.5 (W3) vs. Pittsburgh (W2). Baltimore has the 1 seed locked up, and we'll see Tyler Huntley at QB I believe. I've really liked that guy in the past. Baltimore is showing explosion on offense as of late, but I think this is a low scoring game in a heated rivalry. Mason Rudolph has had a great last two games. Which is an outlier for his whole career. He's been a mid range game manager depending on the defense to keep the game lose. Taking the 3 and the hook in a rivalry game like this is the way to go I think. Also looking hard at the under. (SATURDAY LOSER)
Tenn +3.5 (L3) vs Jacksonville (W1). Rematch, Jacksonvile won 34-14 at home as a 6.5 pt favorite in the first meeting. With Pittsburgh's win yesterday, I'm beginning to think they are a destined team for the playoffs. Jacksonville is in a WIN OR GO HOME scenario with this game.
I see Pittsburgh and Buffalo both getting into the playoffs, and Miami winning the division. Buffalo only gets in the playoffs after a loss to Miami, if Jacksonville loses. Pittsburgh only gets into the playoffs if Miami beats Buffalo.
No Plays:
Minnesota +3.5 (L2, P, P, L1) at Detroit (W3). Minnesota's feel good season is about to end. Josh Dobbs was a great story for about a month. Detroit is a heavy public play because Dan Campbell insists he's gonna play his starters. In a meaningless game for them, I doubt he really does though. I may flip this pick later on, but I don't think Detroit's starters play most of the 4th qtr.
Nick Mullens makes his return as the starter after Jaren Hall stunk it up on Sunday Night. Backdoor may be open with capable Nick Mullens in.
Betting against the top seeds with nothing to play for is a crapshoot for the most part. Some just crumble, but Detroit is a disciplined, well coached team that wants to keep winning. So instead of hoping for a backdoor I'm gonna pass or even maybe take Detroit. Minnesota was in the playoff hunt for a while, and they're technically still alive I think. So that's probably all she wrote for the vikings this season. Losing Cousins and Jefferson for an extended period of time doomed their season.
This is game is a complete no play for me, and I'm leaning towards Detroit right now.
System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-4):
Nothin. Very light on the system plays this year.
2023
37-35-2 Plays, 25-24 Leans
2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
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