Week 17 Notes

**recovering77** · 12-30-2023, 04:26 AM

I goofed and forgot to come back and change my play to a lean on the under after finding out Amari Cooper was out. I try not to take unders when the star players aren't playing. But that's on me. I'll take the L. Try to even it out with other picks.

Saturday Play:

Dallas -4.5 (L2) vs. Detroit (W2). Really not sure there's a path to a division title with Dallas anymore. A friend of mine said Philly controls the tiebreaks. But the new NFC East Champion trend is like 10 years plus strong, so I'm still gonna find a way. Detroit and Dallas both have locked up playoff births; Dallas as a wild card and Detroit as a Division Champion. Detroit still has a path to the #1 overall seed a bye, but they've guaranteed themselves at least a home game. Detroit played a couple of Saturdays ago and absolutely punished Denver. After losing two in a row, I think Dallas gets back on track this week. They've been pretty good about avoiding long losing streaks since Dak took over.

**recovering77** · 12-30-2023, 04:57 AM

Sunday:

I'm on a horrid losing streak today (Saturday), but when I lose 5 in a row it's not uncommon for me to reel off 5 wins in a row to balance it out.

Plays:

New Orleans +2.5 (L1) at Tampa Bay (W3). Love the spot, but having flashbacks to last year when Brady orchestrated that comeback and killed my money line on a huge play so I will take the points here and not the money line. Tampa Bay is hot, winning 4 in a row, and covering 7 of their last 8. Like the spot with New Orleans coming off a blowout against the Rams where they garbaged it up to look better than it was. Rematch, Tampa Bay won 26-9 in New Orleans as 4.5 pt dog. Now they're giving less than a field goal.

Tampa Bay has been red hot, has a better record, and already beat New Orleans down this season. So I don't see why they aren't giving at least a full 3 at home in this situation. See below in my Atlanta lean for more info regarding this play.

Miami +3.5 (W2) at Baltimore (W2). Both with huge wins last week, so both due for a letdown. I know I've called Miami's defense swiss cheese for like 2 years, but they're actually better than I've given them credit for. They're opportunistic, and there's been a lot of unders because of it. On Monday Baltimore won because Purdy threw 4 interceptions. Then Sam Darnold came in and almost threw 2 TD passes on Baltimore's defense that was leaking like a sieve at the end of the game. Yes, Tua has been prone to turn the ball over lately as well, but perhaps the big win over Dallas allows him to shed his can't beat good teams Stigma. He has an excellent run game as a Mcdaniel is a Shanahan disciple. Tua is turnover prone, but he hasn't thrown more than 2 picks in a game this season except against both the New York teams. P.S. He won both of those games as well by at least 2 TDs.

I like Miami to cover, and possibly get the outright win against the newly crowned best team in the NFL. Lamar Jackson also became the odds on favorite for MVP last week.

Also forgot that Jaylen Waddle is out. So Miami is one ankle re-aggravation from Tyreek Hill from losing both their top wideouts. Risky, and I love the 3.5 here in probably a low scoring game that's controlled on the ground. Thinking 22-20, 21-19 type game.

Denver -3.5 (L2) vs. LA Chargers (W1). Had to look pretty hard to find the backup QB for Denver. It's Jarrett Stidham, who I made a large wager with last year when he started against San Francisco and made it a very competitive game. Easton Stick played just OK last week, but it was pretty much the defense that carried him to victory. I don't see that happening even though Denver's defense hasn't showed up lately.

The benching of Russell Wilson will be blamed on his contract, but I think Sean Payton sees something in Stidham. Dude has a lot of potential and has shown it on multiple teams. This is the same coach that won a ton of games with a Tight End as his starting QB. If the Chargers don't get those turnovers last week, they're not putting up that many points. That's why I say Stick played OK, not well, not bad.

Leans:

Arizona +12.5 (L2) at Philly (L4, P1). Trying to find ways to get Dallas that division title. Arizona beat Dallas on the road, and they have the talent to do it here, I officially have zero trust in Philly's defense against anyone with a semblance of a passing game. Philly is awful. They allowed a cold Tyrod Taylor to come in and put up 22 points in the second half of that game. With that said, Arizona has pretty bad defense as well. I take back my previous comment about a shootout. Arizona is missing Hollywood Brown again. I think both teams will want to run the ball all the way down the field, and both are going to have a ton of success doing it. But drives stall, turnovers happen. And Murray tends to start hot then turn cold as the game goes on. So I'm not looking at an over here.

Atlanta +3 (W1) at Chicago (W1). This is actually a continuation of my New Orleans write-up. So I had a very difficult time picking between Atlanta and New Orleans (who always seems to F me every time I bet them). The two games are very similar with spreads and everything else. I said earlier in the season that Chicago would not win more than 6 games this season, and here they are with 6 and two games to go.

The deciding factor to me was that I picture Carolina being in a position to play spoiler next week against Tampa Bay. Not saying they will, but I picture Carolina standing in the way. Atlanta and New Orleans are both still alive for the playoffs, and in fact they play each other next week. But it becomes a moot point if Tampa Bay clinches the division and a playoff spot with a win against New Orleans. I picture this division going into the last game, and that common thing between these two games is that both teams need Tampa Bay to lose. I'll still take the points anyways because this division in general has a bad habit of making lines of 2.5 or less matter.

No Plays:
Cincinnati +6.5 (L1) at Kansas City (L4). I've been waiting for the return of the Kansas City Nevercovers. They started the year off great, but slumping now. I'll take Cincinnati to cover, but not win.

I actually take that back. Kansas City has covered every game that they've won except against New England. But I'd still take Cincy here for a bounceback.

I changed my mind about this game. KC lines are inflated, but Cincy's defense is allowing a ton of points every game lately. I would still take Cincy if I had to, but not worth a play or a lean this week.

I did throw them in a Sunday parlay earlier tonight, but I'm regretting it. Prob shoulda thrown in the over on Washington and Texas instead. I think that game could hit 80s.

**recovering77** · 12-31-2023, 03:27 AM

Sunday Night Play:

Minnesota -1 (L1, P, P, L1) vs. Green Bay (L3). The more I look at this game the more I like Minnesota. Jordan Love has been playing great lately. Minnesota is starting Jaren Hall this week, who we've seen but didn't look particularly good I don't think. I'm going to trust Kevin O'Connell here who was a Coach of the Year candidate until the emergence of Flacco. You've got Josh Dobbs who has won you games, and Nick Mullens who is mistake prone but shown that he can play in this league, yet you go with the unproven rookie with the season on the line. I think he surprises and gets the win. Green bay getting points and possibly plus juice on the money line seems kinda like a sucker bet here.

Revision: No play on the game at all.

Minnesota is usually a game I'd love to take them in this spot, but I always say Minnesota is always right there for a playoff spot. 2 games left and they're still right there, but it usually doesn't carry into the last week of the season. They're usually eliminated before. After seeing that Minnesota took the first meeting by 2 TDs, I think they may continue to split the season series.

So even though I like the matchup and the spot, just historically I don't like Minnesota to win here anymore.

Though I do have a slight lean to the under now.

Week 17 Notes

Week 17 Notes

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