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Very late start this week. I called them picks cuz there probably won't be too many notes. No time and just going on gut for now.
Last week 2-1-1 plays, 2-1 leans.
Plays:
Washington +6.5 (L3) at LA Rams (W3). This is the only pick I need this week. LA Rams defense has not been good this year. I really feel like today is a great day to take Washington to get out of their funk. Most of Washington's losses have come against good or opportunistic defenses. Other games Washington can go drive for drive with anyone.
I was basing this off a fantasy football decision really. I was debating on starting the Rams defense as Washington's offense is giving up the 3rd most fantasy pts to defenses., but saw the total is very high. And why wouldn't it be?
Rams have 0 defensive touchdowns this season. They have 7 forced interceptions in 13 games. They have just 4 fumble recoveries in 13 games. They only get about 2 sacks a game, which is what most teams get against elite QBs. 0 blocked kicks. They are the second worst defense in fantasy football (Washington is dead last). This is not a defense to be scared of whatsoever. And I expect Washington to take advantage.
Cleveland -2.5 (W1) vs. Chicago (W3). I made the prediction that Chicago would not win more than 5-6 or so games this season. They're at 5 now, and I see two winnable games after this (Arizona, Atlanta). Good spot to fade Chicago after a statement win against Detroit, who dismantled the Broncos last night. For the record though, two of those wins came with Tyler Bagent as the QB. My prediction was based on Justin Fields starting close to every game. Cleveland is gonna be the ugliest playoff team this year.
Arizona (U1) / SF (U1) OVER 48.5. Arizona' defense has really shown no ability to stop anyone this year other than Kenny Pickett. I expect San Fran to have no problem putting up around 31-35ish points this game. The question is if Arizona can score 2 TDs or more. San Francisco has a good defense, but they can be scored on. Arizona has scored 14 pts in every game since Murray came back, and San Fran is giving up around 16ish the last 4. I'll take a shot on the over.
NY Jets +8.5 (W1) at Miami (L1). Major line adjustment from the blowout from the first meeting. Wilson in instead of Boyle. Let that be the last time I ever say that name again hopefully. Tyreek Hill game time decision. Last game Miami won by 21, but keep in mind 7 of those points were on a pick 6 hail mary to end the half. Another 7 points was from a Mostert breakaway rushing TD with 3:35 left while Miami was running the clock out. Had that QB had any ounce of talent, the Jets probably would have covered the first meeting.
Leans:
Buffalo -2.5 (W1) vs. Dallas (W1). Buffalo still in must win mode, and Dallas fresh off a statement win blowout of Philly. The NFC east always has a new division winner every season, it looks to be Dallas this year. I'm just now looking at the remaining schedules though, and Dallas has a tough schedule with Buffalo, Miami, Detroit next 3 weeks, then finishing up at division rival Washington.
Philly plays at Seattle, Giants twice, and home against Arizona. That looks like 3-1 or 4-0 there. Dallas has a one game lead on Philly, but they split the season series. Both have one division loss against each other.
This is actually very tough. I'd say the only way Philly doesn't win the division is if they lose at Seattle tonight as a 3.5 pt road favorite. So I guess I'll couple those together for now. Philly is -10.5 at home against the Giants next week, and Dallas is -1.5 at Miami next week.
Seattle +3.5 (W2) vs. Philly (L2). Would be the same reason listed above about Buffalo. This is the likely only way Dallas wins the division.
Looks like in the hour since I wrote this, many of the lines have changed, and all the changes were against me. These are the lines I got though. Even if I had to buy them back for a higher price.
System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-3):
I think there may have been a half system play on Denver +4.5 last night, which lost. So in the interest of keeping a fair system and integrity, I will list it as a half system play loss and update next week.
2023
29-29-2 Plays, 20-20 Leans
2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
Last week 2-1-1 plays, 2-1 leans.
Plays:
Washington +6.5 (L3) at LA Rams (W3). This is the only pick I need this week. LA Rams defense has not been good this year. I really feel like today is a great day to take Washington to get out of their funk. Most of Washington's losses have come against good or opportunistic defenses. Other games Washington can go drive for drive with anyone.
I was basing this off a fantasy football decision really. I was debating on starting the Rams defense as Washington's offense is giving up the 3rd most fantasy pts to defenses., but saw the total is very high. And why wouldn't it be?
Rams have 0 defensive touchdowns this season. They have 7 forced interceptions in 13 games. They have just 4 fumble recoveries in 13 games. They only get about 2 sacks a game, which is what most teams get against elite QBs. 0 blocked kicks. They are the second worst defense in fantasy football (Washington is dead last). This is not a defense to be scared of whatsoever. And I expect Washington to take advantage.
Cleveland -2.5 (W1) vs. Chicago (W3). I made the prediction that Chicago would not win more than 5-6 or so games this season. They're at 5 now, and I see two winnable games after this (Arizona, Atlanta). Good spot to fade Chicago after a statement win against Detroit, who dismantled the Broncos last night. For the record though, two of those wins came with Tyler Bagent as the QB. My prediction was based on Justin Fields starting close to every game. Cleveland is gonna be the ugliest playoff team this year.
Arizona (U1) / SF (U1) OVER 48.5. Arizona' defense has really shown no ability to stop anyone this year other than Kenny Pickett. I expect San Fran to have no problem putting up around 31-35ish points this game. The question is if Arizona can score 2 TDs or more. San Francisco has a good defense, but they can be scored on. Arizona has scored 14 pts in every game since Murray came back, and San Fran is giving up around 16ish the last 4. I'll take a shot on the over.
NY Jets +8.5 (W1) at Miami (L1). Major line adjustment from the blowout from the first meeting. Wilson in instead of Boyle. Let that be the last time I ever say that name again hopefully. Tyreek Hill game time decision. Last game Miami won by 21, but keep in mind 7 of those points were on a pick 6 hail mary to end the half. Another 7 points was from a Mostert breakaway rushing TD with 3:35 left while Miami was running the clock out. Had that QB had any ounce of talent, the Jets probably would have covered the first meeting.
Leans:
Buffalo -2.5 (W1) vs. Dallas (W1). Buffalo still in must win mode, and Dallas fresh off a statement win blowout of Philly. The NFC east always has a new division winner every season, it looks to be Dallas this year. I'm just now looking at the remaining schedules though, and Dallas has a tough schedule with Buffalo, Miami, Detroit next 3 weeks, then finishing up at division rival Washington.
Philly plays at Seattle, Giants twice, and home against Arizona. That looks like 3-1 or 4-0 there. Dallas has a one game lead on Philly, but they split the season series. Both have one division loss against each other.
This is actually very tough. I'd say the only way Philly doesn't win the division is if they lose at Seattle tonight as a 3.5 pt road favorite. So I guess I'll couple those together for now. Philly is -10.5 at home against the Giants next week, and Dallas is -1.5 at Miami next week.
Seattle +3.5 (W2) vs. Philly (L2). Would be the same reason listed above about Buffalo. This is the likely only way Dallas wins the division.
Looks like in the hour since I wrote this, many of the lines have changed, and all the changes were against me. These are the lines I got though. Even if I had to buy them back for a higher price.
System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-3):
I think there may have been a half system play on Denver +4.5 last night, which lost. So in the interest of keeping a fair system and integrity, I will list it as a half system play loss and update next week.
2023
29-29-2 Plays, 20-20 Leans
2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
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