***Let's Talk Football Week 6***

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  • Underdog88
    I drink your milkshake!!!
    • Mar 2007
    • 13981

    ***Let's Talk Football Week 6***

    Got buried on the last two primetime games. I'd say 80% on my losses are due to trash ass o-lines. #1 rule for me this week is to stay the hell away from trash o-lines. That being said I like the bears this week :laughing:



    Bills- ok I said I had a lot to say so here we go. Last week vs the Eagles people got a chance to see fred Jackson in action. IMO he is playing like a top 5 back, which is keeping Spiller on the sidelines. Despite a growing list of injuries to the offense, they still managed to get the needed plays. I'm most impressed with the Bills O-line, which is giving Fitz time and blocking well. Hairston stepped right in and played well in Bell's absence. Chandler seemed like a breakout player offensively the first couple games, but impressed me much more with his blocking vs the Eagles. A couple big runs were set up by moving Chandler in motion to block.

    The Bills wr core has been decimated by injury. I was bummed about Easley on ir, because I think he has serious potential, and when Roscoe went down I really didn't think it was as large a blow because he's never healthy. Nelson/Donald Jones have been solid overall, though Jones has had some pretty bad drops. With Jones out Roosevelt got a ton of action. While I think he played well, it is apparent he is still fresh and seemed to lack the speed of Jones. They are thin- Ruvell Martin will likely see time as will Brad Smith at wr. That is ugly, and I would expect Stevie to see a ton of doubles. Stevie was held in check vs Philly but that was expected, he has had some tough matchups vs top cbs. I don't think this is the case vs the Giants. Webster/Ross? I think this will be a huge week for Stevie provided the O-line holds up for Fitz. I think the Bills may be a bit more run heavy this week, and NYG is allowing 122 per game. I'm hoping they come out in 2 rb sets to have outlets in the passing game.

    Defensively, the Bills continue to force turnovers despite giving up yardage in chunks. Scott is on fire, and Byrd is one of the best tacklers on the team. Props to the Bills for stealing Barnett, because he is far and away the best LB on the team. Merriman really hasn't done squat, Andre Davis wouldn't be playing on any other team- I think he slowly gets moved out of the rotation. Kelsay will miss this week as well, but Moats played great last week on the outside. He had more pressure than anyone so far this season, which I think Buffalo will need to generate if they want to win this week. Buffalo's D will continue to thrive off of mishaps. With the players the Bills have right now, it's the only way they can play. As long as the Bills offense continues to be productive and not turn the ball over, they will continue to win games. The Giants are so Jekyll/Hyde that I don't know what to expect, but I will be nervous if Jacobs can go. He is the type of back that give the Bills trouble late in games. So many Bills injuries makes a play on them dicey....the biggest loss is without a doubt Kyle Williams. With him out I am very nervous about the run d. If they start struggling they will have to load the box, which could cause problems- Cruz is a playmaker.



    With the total set at 50, there is little wiggle room. IMO there is a possibility that both teams will look to play ball control, as both teams should be able to run effectively. IMO the biggest mistake the Eagles made was not giving McCoy 25+ carries. As of right now I don't have a definitive play, but I am leaning Bills+pts. Also think they are a great candidate for a teaser.
    Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...
  • Underdog88
    I drink your milkshake!!!
    • Mar 2007
    • 13981

    #2
    I kind of think this is an under game, no way I bet it, but why isn't this line 54? Looks to me like it's begging for over money.
    Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...

    Comment

    • gadfly36
      Moderator
      • Mar 2007
      • 6205

      #3
      im probably not gonna bet it but the over looks good to me.
      mlb 2018 157-110 +42.74 2018
      nfl 2018 54-79-1 -21.4 units 2018
      mlb 2019 348-245-3 +70.2 units 2019
      nfl 2019 54-54 -21.2 units 2019
      mlb 2020 112-75-1 +33.35 units 2020
      nfl 2020 88-87-3 -8.4 units 2021
      mlb 2020 playoffs 30-17 +30.6 units 2020
      nfl playoffs 2020 11-11-1 +25.4 units 2021
      mlb 2021 271-226 +18.3 units 2021
      mlb 2022 240-239 -62.9 units as of 10-21-2022
      mlb 2023 122-103 -9.7 units 2023
      mlb 2024 15-11 +2.7 units as of 4-13-2024

      Comment

      • Daws1089
        Moderator
        • Mar 2007
        • 7811

        #4
        I don't know Underdog, every one wil be remembering the bills win over the eagles and the giants loss over the bad seahawks. I think this sets up nicely for NYG.

        Comment

        • Daws1089
          Moderator
          • Mar 2007
          • 7811

          #5
          TB +4.5 as a home dog looks like a possible play. I'm certainly not playing the saints on the road in back to back road division games. Saints are giving up a bunch on the ground and even though blount is likley out, graham can produce. I like TB's motivation angle too off of the blowout last week out in SF.

          Comment

          • bluedevil12
            Member
            • Nov 2008
            • 627

            #6
            Can someone talk me out of teasing GB/PIT/NE and adding in either OAK/NYJ? I guess NE's pass defense would be the one worry, but I'd like to hear your guys input...
            NFL YTD: 83-75-3 (-4.83 U)
            Spreads: 54-45-2 (+5.95 U)
            Totals: 22-21-2 (-1.2 U)
            Moneylines: 5-4 (+2.48 U)
            Parlays: 1-4 (-10.56 U)
            Teaser: 0-1 (-1.5 U)

            NCAAF: 16-8 (+9.26 U)
            Spreads: 12-8 (+3.3 U)
            Totals: 3-0 (+3 U)
            Parlay: 1-0 (+2.96 U)

            NBA Dec: 13-9-1 (+3.1 U)

            NCAABB: 29-36-3 (-9.1 U)

            Comment

            • Underdog88
              I drink your milkshake!!!
              • Mar 2007
              • 13981

              #7
              Regarding the situation in the Bills/Giants game, yes I think it favors the Giants. However there is no way I'm laying chalk against the Bills right now. I am a homer but I think the Bills are in a better spot than they were going into Cincy.




              Originally posted by gadfly36
              im probably not gonna bet it but the over looks good to me.

              The Bills will be starting a practice squad wr as the #3, and there were a ton of 3 yard passes last week. I would think they look to run much more and get away from the spread offense. With Kyle likely out at dt I would think the Giants run a bit- to me this all adds up to an under....
              Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...

              Comment

              • Daws1089
                Moderator
                • Mar 2007
                • 7811

                #8
                Yea I agree the bills will run more. Giants probably want to run more too. Bradshaw only got the ball 17x last week, they probabaly wished he got over 20. No Jacobs, but I think the NYG will want to run a little more just for the simple fact Eli will have less chances to turn it over lol.


                Why so much love for OAK this week? Pub looks really heavy there.


                Call me crazy, but I like Rams +15 off the bye.

                Comment

                • Golden
                  Newbie
                  • Oct 2010
                  • 89

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Daws1089
                  TB +4.5 as a home dog looks like a possible play. I'm certainly not playing the saints on the road in back to back road division games. Saints are giving up a bunch on the ground and even though blount is likley out, graham can produce. I like TB's motivation angle too off of the blowout last week out in SF.
                  graham is good, but he wont produce blount-numbers. after the trashing in SF and blount getting injured, im surprised the line isnt at 6. Saints escaped last week in carolina, but they'll definitely turn it up this week

                  Comment

                  • Golden
                    Newbie
                    • Oct 2010
                    • 89

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Daws1089
                    Yea I agree the bills will run more. Giants probably want to run more too. Bradshaw only got the ball 17x last week, they probabaly wished he got over 20. No Jacobs, but I think the NYG will want to run a little more just for the simple fact Eli will have less chances to turn it over lol.


                    Why so much love for OAK this week? Pub looks really heavy there.


                    Call me crazy, but I like Rams +15 off the bye.
                    i prolly wont take em but i like st.louis too

                    Comment

                    • Underdog88
                      I drink your milkshake!!!
                      • Mar 2007
                      • 13981

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Daws1089
                      Why so much love for OAK this week? Pub looks really heavy there..

                      Browns off a bye with everyone down on Hillis for sitting out vs Miami, Raiders have no defense.... problem is the Browns defense isn't any better. Browns ranked #4 in the league for passing yards allowed, but look at who they played. Neither team has had success stopping the run, I think this game gets over the total
                      Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...

                      Comment

                      • MrDecipher
                        Member
                        • Jul 2008
                        • 268

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Underdog88
                        I kind of think this is an under game, no way I bet it, but why isn't this line 54? Looks to me like it's begging for over money.
                        You might be right . One thing that I noticed , it seems the Bills have changed their approach and have gone conservative . Before they would just keep attacking now it seems they are deliberately going out and trying to control games . Especially when they play high scoring teams . It is the right thing to do , get the lead and hold it .
                        If your actions inspire others to dream more,learn more,
                        do more and become more,you are a leader.

                        Comment

                        • MrDecipher
                          Member
                          • Jul 2008
                          • 268

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Daws1089
                          Yea I agree the bills will run more. Giants probably want to run more too. Bradshaw only got the ball 17x last week, they probabaly wished he got over 20. No Jacobs, but I think the NYG will want to run a little more just for the simple fact Eli will have less chances to turn it over lol.


                          Why so much love for OAK this week? Pub looks really heavy there.


                          Call me crazy, but I like Rams +15 off the bye.
                          Oakland's first home game after the old man passed away . I think a lot of people a playing on that . I like it , moreover Hillis is not the guy he was last year and not playing very well I think that is huge for Cleveland . As is the Browns are kinda one dimensional and low scoring and have some WRs banged up too I think ... I would lay Oak -6.5 , maybe stay away from -7 or higher .
                          If your actions inspire others to dream more,learn more,
                          do more and become more,you are a leader.

                          Comment

                          • akatdrake
                            Senior Member
                            • Oct 2007
                            • 6065

                            #14
                            Pittsburgh -12 vs Jacksonville... really, all of a sudden Pitt throws it a ton and that spread is that high? I think Pitt tries to get Mendenhall going this week and that will play right into Jax's hands. Not a bad defense there... but can easily see Jacksonville covering this. Weird number too...

                            Philadelphia -3 at Washington... is this the books having Philly a fave because the public still wants to bet the Eagles, or is this lack of respect for Washington? Philly's defense is bad, and with three RBs capable of 100+, and Fred Davis coming into his own... home dog definitely deserves a look here.

                            Detroit -4.5 vs San Francisco... line to me begs for Detroit money here. Detroit looking good, public lots of faith in them, and yet San Fran having a very good 4-1 season, and could easily be 5-0. I think the key here is Detroit's DL getting to Alex Smith.

                            Lots of large spreads this week.
                            NFL 17: 45-47-2 // 48.91% // -10.12
                            MMA: 247-332-2 // 42.66% // -6.04
                            MLB 17: 151-140-8 // 51.89% // +5.65 ROR // +42.13
                            NCAAF 17: 63-49-2 // 56.25% // +6.80
                            Updated on 01/13/18
                            ---
                            One of my 2018 resolutions: no more action gambling.

                            Comment

                            • Daws1089
                              Moderator
                              • Mar 2007
                              • 7811

                              #15
                              I immediately thought too many points as well in the JAX line.

                              Comment

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