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Unlucky #13 may come with some ugly plays. Looking at the games, I may be taking all the crappy teams this week.
Last week 2-3 plays, 3-1 leans.
Plays:
Tenn +1.5 (W1)vs. Indy (W3). This is a rematch. They played earlier this year in Indy and Indy won outright as a 2.5 point dog 23-16 going under the total of 43. The total is set to 42.5 this time, so not much adjustment. Major adjustment on the line now that Levis is in and Minshew has shown to be consistently solid this season. Jonathan Taylor is out which may be why the line is dropping slightly. Tenn has owned this series as of late. I don't really trust Indy's defense to stop anyone outside of the Patriots.
Cleveland +3.5 (L1) at LA Rams (W1). Small lean to Cleveland here. They've been pretty good after a loss historically both this season, and under Stefanski in general. The wild card here is Joe Flacco in probably one of his last starts of his career. That and this is a fade on the Rams who had their biggest offensive performance of the season last week. I took the over in that game, but it surprised me how much heavy lifting the Rams did to get there.
Green Bay +6 (W1) vs. Kansas City (W2). Line is a little bit high, which gives me slight pause. I said last week that the Raiders getting +10 at home against the Chiefs in a division rivalry game seemed high, and the Raiders blew that one going away. Green Bay is 0-2 in primetime this year, but they were both close games. The packers have played mostly close games this season, and I think they should be able to keep it close. Maybe a shot at a backdoor or something.
San Fran -2.5 (W3) at Philly (P, W2). Tough loss with Buffalo last week. Philly has been finding ways to win every week since that loss to the Jets. I feel like that's a ton of value getting a 9-1 team at +3 at home. I missed on the letdown spot with Alabama today, though I got it back with the Under. Philly was down that whole game last week though, it must have took a lot out of them to keep coming back and win in OT. I like the Niners and their inflated line this week.
Washington +8.5 or Over 49.5 (L2, O3) vs Miami (W1, O1). Not sure which is the stronger play at this point, Howell to bounce back and cover, or this game to just be a shootout again. Tua just had another bad game, where they won in spite of it. My concern about the over is that last week's over was very lucky. Washington was moving the ball the entire game, but it was mainly just dinking and dunking, burning 6 minutes of game clock each drive. That game had no chance of going over if Dallas hadn't gotten that pick 6 at the end, or if Dak wasn't orchestrating 3 consecutive TD drives with fast chunk plays. We do have a new defensive coordinator this week though. So it might not be the same Washington defense that's been giving up 14-21 points every 4th quarter.
Whenever I take an over on Miami it seems to usually go under. Too many questions for me on how Washington's defense is going to look after firing Del Rio. I'll leave both as leans, but I probably won't be playing either of them. Scratch that. I'm gonna take a shot on Washington +8.5 today.
The over is no longer a play or a lean. I forgot, as a Washington homer, it rained all day and all night last night. It was foggy. Not raining right now, but the field must be damp still. Not good weather for an over, and Tyreek better watch his knees cuz that field is dangerous.
Leans:
Detroit -4.5 (L2) at New Orleans (L2). Wanted to throw this one in as a lean. New Orleans isn't good at home, and Detroit is due for a bounceback.
Carolina +5.5 (L2) at Tampa Bay (L1). Good call on my part avoiding the Panthers last week. They made it interesting of course, but didn't cover yet again. 1-10 SU, and 2-8-1 ATS this season. I said it wasn't worth it last week. Frank Reich got fired this week though, so this is the new coach system. The system is not fool proof though, and does lose sometimes. Can Carolina continue defying the odds and still keep losing with one of the strongest systems in football? There are rumbling that David Tepper is the second coming of Daniel Snyder, so it's possible this organization is just toxic now. Keep in mind that Carolina has no reason to tank. Their first round pick, which is currently #1 overall, is going to the Chicago Bears in exchange for the rights to draft Bryce Young.
This line is actually down to 3.5. Is someone hurt that I'm not aware of? When I wrote this originally, Frank Reich had already been fired so that's not it. I think maybe I'll steer clear of Carolina this week. Just like all season, not worth it.
Pittsburgh (U2) / AZ (O1) UNDER 41. After that egg Arizona laid last week, I'm convinced they're tanking at this point. With San Fran and Philly on the Schedule I don't see them winning many more games this season. Maybe a Pitt ML play is the better move here. The last two games Arizona has started off hot with a TD on their opening drive, then they disappear the rest of the game. Not sure what's up with that. Pitt should be able to move the ball consistently against that defense, but once they get a lead they'll probably play ultra conservative with that QB of theirs.
I saw someone tease these two and I think maybe I like that too.
Tenn +7.5 and Pitt -0.5 sounds like a winning combo and would basically count as 1 pick. I wouldn't dare give 6.5 with Pitt. They have 7 wins this season. All have been by 7 or less. Five of them are by 6 or less. (Play)
No Plays:
NY Jets +1.5 (L4, P1) vs. Atlanta (W1). Tim Boyle really is that bad, and this line isn't that low either. Tim Boyle only has a job because he's Aaron Rodger's friend from Green Bay. And I made a mistake thinking the NFL would want this Rodgers comeback story to be a big thing. What he's doing, already opening his practice window up, may actually be insulting thinking he can come back in 3 months from a season ending injury with "alternative medicine." The NFL probably wants to shut Rodgers' anti-vax mouth up at this point. The Jets wanna make me puke, so I dunno about this one.
I think I'm gonna make this a no play. Tim Boyle isn't worth it.
System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-3):
None
2023
25-25-1 Plays, 16-18 Leans
2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
Last week 2-3 plays, 3-1 leans.
Plays:
Tenn +1.5 (W1)vs. Indy (W3). This is a rematch. They played earlier this year in Indy and Indy won outright as a 2.5 point dog 23-16 going under the total of 43. The total is set to 42.5 this time, so not much adjustment. Major adjustment on the line now that Levis is in and Minshew has shown to be consistently solid this season. Jonathan Taylor is out which may be why the line is dropping slightly. Tenn has owned this series as of late. I don't really trust Indy's defense to stop anyone outside of the Patriots.
Cleveland +3.5 (L1) at LA Rams (W1). Small lean to Cleveland here. They've been pretty good after a loss historically both this season, and under Stefanski in general. The wild card here is Joe Flacco in probably one of his last starts of his career. That and this is a fade on the Rams who had their biggest offensive performance of the season last week. I took the over in that game, but it surprised me how much heavy lifting the Rams did to get there.
Green Bay +6 (W1) vs. Kansas City (W2). Line is a little bit high, which gives me slight pause. I said last week that the Raiders getting +10 at home against the Chiefs in a division rivalry game seemed high, and the Raiders blew that one going away. Green Bay is 0-2 in primetime this year, but they were both close games. The packers have played mostly close games this season, and I think they should be able to keep it close. Maybe a shot at a backdoor or something.
San Fran -2.5 (W3) at Philly (P, W2). Tough loss with Buffalo last week. Philly has been finding ways to win every week since that loss to the Jets. I feel like that's a ton of value getting a 9-1 team at +3 at home. I missed on the letdown spot with Alabama today, though I got it back with the Under. Philly was down that whole game last week though, it must have took a lot out of them to keep coming back and win in OT. I like the Niners and their inflated line this week.
Washington +8.5 or Over 49.5 (L2, O3) vs Miami (W1, O1). Not sure which is the stronger play at this point, Howell to bounce back and cover, or this game to just be a shootout again. Tua just had another bad game, where they won in spite of it. My concern about the over is that last week's over was very lucky. Washington was moving the ball the entire game, but it was mainly just dinking and dunking, burning 6 minutes of game clock each drive. That game had no chance of going over if Dallas hadn't gotten that pick 6 at the end, or if Dak wasn't orchestrating 3 consecutive TD drives with fast chunk plays. We do have a new defensive coordinator this week though. So it might not be the same Washington defense that's been giving up 14-21 points every 4th quarter.
Whenever I take an over on Miami it seems to usually go under. Too many questions for me on how Washington's defense is going to look after firing Del Rio. I'll leave both as leans, but I probably won't be playing either of them. Scratch that. I'm gonna take a shot on Washington +8.5 today.
The over is no longer a play or a lean. I forgot, as a Washington homer, it rained all day and all night last night. It was foggy. Not raining right now, but the field must be damp still. Not good weather for an over, and Tyreek better watch his knees cuz that field is dangerous.
Leans:
Detroit -4.5 (L2) at New Orleans (L2). Wanted to throw this one in as a lean. New Orleans isn't good at home, and Detroit is due for a bounceback.
Carolina +5.5 (L2) at Tampa Bay (L1). Good call on my part avoiding the Panthers last week. They made it interesting of course, but didn't cover yet again. 1-10 SU, and 2-8-1 ATS this season. I said it wasn't worth it last week. Frank Reich got fired this week though, so this is the new coach system. The system is not fool proof though, and does lose sometimes. Can Carolina continue defying the odds and still keep losing with one of the strongest systems in football? There are rumbling that David Tepper is the second coming of Daniel Snyder, so it's possible this organization is just toxic now. Keep in mind that Carolina has no reason to tank. Their first round pick, which is currently #1 overall, is going to the Chicago Bears in exchange for the rights to draft Bryce Young.
This line is actually down to 3.5. Is someone hurt that I'm not aware of? When I wrote this originally, Frank Reich had already been fired so that's not it. I think maybe I'll steer clear of Carolina this week. Just like all season, not worth it.
Pittsburgh (U2) / AZ (O1) UNDER 41. After that egg Arizona laid last week, I'm convinced they're tanking at this point. With San Fran and Philly on the Schedule I don't see them winning many more games this season. Maybe a Pitt ML play is the better move here. The last two games Arizona has started off hot with a TD on their opening drive, then they disappear the rest of the game. Not sure what's up with that. Pitt should be able to move the ball consistently against that defense, but once they get a lead they'll probably play ultra conservative with that QB of theirs.
I saw someone tease these two and I think maybe I like that too.
Tenn +7.5 and Pitt -0.5 sounds like a winning combo and would basically count as 1 pick. I wouldn't dare give 6.5 with Pitt. They have 7 wins this season. All have been by 7 or less. Five of them are by 6 or less. (Play)
No Plays:
NY Jets +1.5 (L4, P1) vs. Atlanta (W1). Tim Boyle really is that bad, and this line isn't that low either. Tim Boyle only has a job because he's Aaron Rodger's friend from Green Bay. And I made a mistake thinking the NFL would want this Rodgers comeback story to be a big thing. What he's doing, already opening his practice window up, may actually be insulting thinking he can come back in 3 months from a season ending injury with "alternative medicine." The NFL probably wants to shut Rodgers' anti-vax mouth up at this point. The Jets wanna make me puke, so I dunno about this one.
I think I'm gonna make this a no play. Tim Boyle isn't worth it.
System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-3):
None
2023
25-25-1 Plays, 16-18 Leans
2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
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