Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Week 12 Notes

[recovering77]

I'm on a horrid losing streak in football at the moment. Doing pretty well with college basketball, but football has really been a stinker the last few days.

Funny how I lose both my best bets, but win everything else. That's just how it goes sometimes. 1-2 Plays, 2-0 Leans last week.

Anyways, I've got a couple of plays already locked in.


Thanksgiving:

Dallas (U1) / Washington (O2) OVER 48.5. Locked this one in already, as I see it only going up towards the actual day. It wouldn't surprise me if we're up to 50.5 or 51 by closing. I dunno why I doubt myself on Washington games sometimes. I know this team better than most people, especially this season. Sam Howell continues to have typical first year starter growing pains with one good week, then one bad week. After putting up a stinker vs. the Giants, I see this being a very competitive game with Dallas. I'm taking the over as opposed to Washington because based on previous matchups, Washington has been able to hang in there for the majority of the game, but sometimes it falls apart at the end and Dallas scores a TD or two to put away the game.

The last two meetings have gone under, including Sam Howell's very first start in week 18 last year. Dallas was not prepared at all to play that last game, and it showed. Dak Prescott was awful, and Howell won without having to do much. Dallas is not the type of team to put up a stinker or Thanksgiving. If I'm completely off base, and Sam Howell turns in another performance like he did against Buffalo 37-3, I think Howell should be able to put up at least double digits in that scenario. Dallas' defense has playmakers that can score, but it's not exactly shutdown defense. They allowed 10 points to Carolina last week, who have the worst offense in the league, and 17 to the Giants the week before.


San Fran -7 (L1) at Seattle (W1). I had San Fran -12.5, and by game time the line had moved it into a loss. Seattle had a bad loss Sunday after Geno got hurt. I believe he came back in and move the ball for the game winning field goal, which they missed. So this is assuming that Geno plays. San Fran giving a full 7 on the road, in a division game, against a team that is 6-4 is too high in my opinion. I think San Fran shuts seattle down this game. Maybe Geno re-aggravates the injury, but I don't see Seattle scoring many points in this one. I won't be playing this one, but it's a LEAN.

Injury report says Geno has a triceps injury, and it's up to the coach if he will start. This becomes a no play if Drew Lock starts. He was so bad in limited action on Sunday, the line would be justified and maybe even be too low in that case.





Black Friday:

NY Jets +10 (L3, P1) vs. Miami (L2). I assume Amazon wants the Black Friday football experience to get off to a good start. This is also a continuation of my theory that the NFL wants this Rodgers return story to be intriguing. And that doesn't happen unless the Jets are at least competitive moving forward. If they lose this game, and badly, they'll slip 3 games under .500, and I'm not sure if Rodgers can save them with 6 games to go at that point.

This is the backup QB system, though not perfect. Tim Boyle is a relative unknown, but he's 29 years old and he's been in the league for a long time. I remember him playing for Detroit and covering that one game vs. Cleveland as a 14 pt home dog. There must be a good reason why Saleh picked Boyle over a much more experience and successful QB in Siemien when the season is on the line. Unless he's secretly setting him up for failure so he can insert Zach Wilson back into the lineup. But I'm not that much of a conspiracy theorist.

Tua had a good game stat wise against the Raiders, but they were held in check for the most part. The Raiders were able to get off one big Davante Adams play, and that was pretty much all they needed for the cover. The Jets have a top tier defense, and better playmakers than the Raiders do with Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson who can make plays if you just throw it in his direction. The Jets have also lost 3 in a row ATS, and it's unusual for them to lose 4 in a row in a season, despite how bad they've been for so many years. I actually faded the 4th game a couple of years back when the Jets played Tampa Bay. It was the infamous Antonio Brown meltdown game that was his final goodbye to the NFL. Tampa won, but they need two TDs at the end of the game to squeak by.

I ended up locking this game in at 10, though I kinda expect it to go to 10.5 or 11.5 by the kickoff. I've seen some books drop it to 9.5, which surprised me. So I figured the safe play would be to lock it in that the key 10 number for now.


I'll finish up the rest of week 11 in a separate post.





System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-3):
TBD





2023
23-22-1 Plays, 13-17 Leans

2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays

2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays

2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans

2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).

2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans

2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans

2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs

[Kevin]

LOVE LOVE LOVE the analysis!

[Kevin]

I went into this week thinking I was going to POUND the Niners minus the points, but did some research and if you'd have taken a 7 point line in favor of the Niners and applies it to their last ten games at Seattle they'd have gone 1-9 ATS. That doesnt mean that's whats going to happen this week, but that spooks the F out of me. So does this low line! SF looks like a wrecking ball, Sea is banged up and the line is 7? I'm backing off my SF lean.

[recovering77]

I went into this week thinking I was going to POUND the Niners minus the points, but did some research and if you'd have taken a 7 point line in favor of the Niners and applies it to their last ten games at Seattle they'd have gone 1-9 ATS. That doesnt mean that's whats going to happen this week, but that spooks the F out of me. So does this low line! SF looks like a wrecking ball, Sea is banged up and the line is 7? I'm backing off my SF lean.

Hindsight, but how can you say San Fran giving a full 7 on the road in a division game to a 6-4 Seattle team is too low? Adjusted for home field, that's San Fran basically the Dallas Game, except Seattle is a better team that Washington, and they made the playoffs last year. Too low woulda been like 3 or less. If San Fran was home, it woulda been -13.

I ended up playing San Fran on the spread and the money line. Glad Seattle couldn't pull off the backdoor.

[recovering77]

So I'm a self proclaimed public fader. I made the Jets pick on Monday knowing that the Jets would be running with their 3rd string QB that has had no success on any level, college or pros.

Imagine the shock I was in, when I was checking another sports forum, and seeing EVERYONE on the Jets as well. I had a really bad feeling in my gut after I saw that, so it was no surprise that the Jets laid a complete egg.

That will probably be the one and only pick 6 on a hail mary that I will ever see in my lifetime. 2 days after the 11 year anniversary of the butt fumble. I had the Jets that game as well, go figure. But the Jets actually covered the second half of that game. The Jets were completely inept tonight, and it's one of the worst picks I've made all season.


Anyways, back to the drawing board. Will have Sunday notes up soon.

[recovering77]

Plays:

New England -3.5 (L3) at NY Giants (W1). New England off their bye week and Giants off possibly their best game of the season not only beating Washington by 12, but scoring a season high 31 points in the process. New England has these short road lines, and they typically squeak by and cover by the skin of their teeth. Like win by 6 on a -3. Surprised to see New England giving the hook, on the road, at probably their lowest point in the past 20 years.

This is going to be a painful game. Probably not a New England blowout. It'll probably be 17-10 or 13-10 late, and New England either backdoors the cover, or holds on by the skin of their teeth, but I do believe that they will cover.

LV Raiders +10 (W3) (U4) vs. KC (L1) (U6). Am I took late to jump on the Raiders' bandwagon now that they're 3-0 ATS with their new coach? I would be concerned that the Raiders don't have enough firepower to keep up with the Chiefs, but this is obviously a different Chiefs team than in past years. Not as explosive, and winning with defense. 10 points does seem unusually high for the Raiders at home, so I'll need to check into this some more. Teams that I thought were getting too many points at home against a division rival are already 0-2 ATS this week. But they all can't lose can they?

The line is down to +9, and +8.5 in some places. According to my research, double digit favorites are really a 50/50 proposition this season. In past years, double digit favorites have been a good bet. So normally I would be chasing the Raiders +10 or whatever here after Dallas and Miami covered earlier this week. However, I can't shake how inflated this line is. With the way Kansas City has been playing, and the Raiders covering 3 in a row, The Raiders should be getting no more than +8.5 on the road. The fact that KC is giving 10 on the road makes me feel something is off.

So after much thought, I decided that playing the over was the best play based on this information. Because I feel Kansas City will win the game, there's a very small window for KC to win the game and for it to go over, but not have Kansas City go over 26.5 points. So my final play for this game is Kansas City Team Total Over 26.5 points.

LA Rams -2.5 (L4) at Arizona (W2). Kyler Murray has looked decent since returning from the ACL. I really thought it was baloney that people thought Arizona was tanking on purpose in order to get Caleb Williams. I'm starting to believe it a tad bit, but I'm not sure. I think Arizona trots Murray out to sell tickets, but they may have packed it in for the season. This is a tricky one I may change my mind on. Rams are off a come from behind win against Seattle, getting the win on a missed FG as time expired. Arizona is off a loss, but a cover, at the Texans.

This is a rematch. LA won the first meeting 26-9 as a 7.5 pt home favorite. Unfortunately, I can't really gauge if Vegas adjusted the line accordingly because it was Dobbs instead of Murray in that one. But from what we know now, Dobbs is arguably better than Murray. He's arguably a better passer, and competitive as a runner.

After much thought, I have decided to play Over 45 points total in this game. It doesn't make much sense to me that the total would be this high, when the Rams have struggled to score points for weeks, and may also be without Cooper Kupp. Also the Cardinals may be missing or limited with Hollywood Brown. Michael Wilson is officially out, and the Rams are the 9th toughest defense against running backs (in fantasy). The line really should be closer to 41 or 42.5, not the 45.5 it was at yesterday.


Buffalo +3 (W1) at Phily (W2). It was unusual this season to see Philly cover two straight games. They were thoroughly outplayed, but KC's offense didn't show up in the second half last week, and Philly escaped with the victory. Buffalo got healthy again with a blowout of the Jets, but if they didn't the red flags on their season would have been raised even higher after losing 6 in a row after the spread. But Buffalo is 6-4 and only a half game out of the last playoff spot.

There's a couple of games back to back where the dog is +3, with Buffalo and the LA Chargers. But the Chargers are getting 3 at home against the Ravens. It would be much higher if it were in Baltimore, as is the case with Philly here. Take away the name, and just go by records of what they've done this season, Philly should be closer to a -5.5 to 6.5 point favorite in this one. The line is too low IMO.

Both teams have key games next week. Buffalo has KC, then Dallas, then LA Chargers. Philly has San Francisco, Dallas, and Seattle afterwards. Not really a lookahead for either team. Buffalo needs to keep winning to stay in the hunt. Philly is one win ahead in the race for the #1 seed and the bye, but there's a lot of tough games ahead. They're taking it week by week.


Leans:

Jacksonville -1.5 (W1) at Houston (L1). Houston comes in winners of 3 games in a row (1-2 ATS), and Jackonsville comes in fresh off a beatdown on Tenn and is winners of 6 of their last 7. Jackonsville is 4-0 ATS on the road this season. The Jags are a puzzling team this year, and they've won the vast majority of their games, but have had two absolute duds against the Niners and the Chiefs. This is a rematch of week 3, where Houston beat them 37-17 in Jacksonville as a 7.5 point favorite. Looks like the line hasn't been adjusted. I was leaning Houston initially until I realized this was a rematch. Will need to look into this further. A respected capper is on Jacksonville pretty big, so I'm raising it in the list.

Pittsburgh -1.5 (L1) at Cincinnati (L2). So this is the second week in a row that Pittsburgh is basically pickem on the road against a division rival, that's starting their backup QB. Do they lose again? Browning actually looked capable last week against Baltimore, and he's talking a big game saying he knows the system. Despite the mediocre team Pittsburgh is, did you know that they haven't lost consecutive games the entire season? I may continue riding that trend, but at this point I'm taking all road chalk and I think I need to mix it up more.

Tampa Bay +2.5 (W4) at Indy (W2). Indy is off a bye, and look out Tampa Bay has covered 4 games in a row. Both teams firmly in the hunt for the playoffs still. Tampa is 1 game behind the Saints for the division, and Indy is one game behind Pittsburgh for the last playoff spot. Minshew hasn't played well in either of his last two games. But the Colts won because New England stinks, and the defense got two TDs against the crappy Panthers. Tampa is 4-0 ATS in their last 4, but there was only 1 win in that bunch. They've just managed to barely stay within the number, despite being the worse team on the field.


No Plays:

Carolina +3.5 (L1, P1, L1) at Tennessee (L3). I dunno if I have the guts to back Carolina. At a putrid 1-7-2 ATS this season, they are by far the worst in the worst team in the league. Their defense actually keeps them in games, but Bryce Young just so bad that they can't take advantage of these opportunities to win games. The hook is very important to me, and if I play Carolina, it will be because I'm hoping that they only lose by 3 or less, which they've done 3 times this season. A trusted capper is on Tenn, so I'm going to look into this game some more.

Usually I see Carolina games and just skip over them completely. The other team is always a high consensus, but the proof is in the performance. 1-9 SU, and 1-7-1 ATS. This is not a good team to bet on, and it's been a losing proposition all season. Not worth it. Pass.

New Orleans -1.5 (L2) at Atlanta (L3). Derek Carr is questionable, but it looks like he's going to play. I believe we're going to see the return of Desmond Ridder because Heinicke is hurt as well. Both teams off their bye week. I'll continue fading Atlanta, who continually finds ways to give away the game every week.

Carr is off the injury report and will start. Heinicke has officially been benched after 3 games, and Ridder has been named the starter, probably for the rest of the season. I think I'm going to back off from this game. The Saints always disappoint me, and I took the Saints both times they played Atlanta last season, and Atlanta took the lead early in both and covered both of them. This is not the Brees/Payton Saints you could count on from years past and it's too much of a crapshoot for me to wager on it.

[recovering77]

Final plays and leans in the post above.