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Coming into this Sunday in a bit of a slump. Not a great college football Saturday, and unsurprisingly a bad week last week when I made picks when didn't really like anything.
Last week 1-4 plays, 0-2 leans.
Doing something a little different this week. I'm going to attempt to select 1 best play at 1 PM, and 1 best play at 4 PM.
Possibles:
Miami (U1) / Las Vegas (U3) OVER 45.5. The Raiders are 2-0 under the new coach, but it was against two subpar teams in the Giants and Jets who don't have much offensively. Miami comes off their bye week after going down 21-0 to the Chiefs, and scoring 2 TDs late to make it look more respectable than it was. I just checked out last year, and off their bye week, Miami beat Houston 30-15 as a 14 pt favorite, so barely covering the line, and it went under the total of 48. I would say Vegas is better offensively than Houston was last year, but not by much, and have a better defense than they did, but not by much. If I'm taking the over, I'm leaning more on Tua to have a good game, which he usually does following a stinker. O'Connell has produced at least 16 points in every one of his starts this season, and this is by far the worst defense he will face. Miami has put up at least 31 pts in their last 3 games following a loss. (1 PM)
Also keep in mind that Antonio Pierce was a defensive coach, not an offensive coach. So if the Raiders hang around, it's probably because of the defense.
NY Giants +9.5 (L2, P1) at Washington (W3). I've gone away from the whole "revenge" for the second meeting of the season system. Over the past 2-3 years, it's been uncanny that the team that covered the last meeting covers again the second. The Giants beat Washington 14-7 in NY earlier this season, but that was with Tyrod Taylor, who I've been saying is a very competent QB that doesn't make a ton of mistakes. I dunno about this Tommy DeVito guy. Not to sound racist or anything, but I haven't really seen much success from Italian QBs in my day (i.e. Ben DiNucci).
DeVito completed 14 passes for only 86 yards last week. And most of that came on a gifted TD drive at the end of the game.
Anyways, around the local social media, it's been put out pretty prevalently that Sam Howell is leading the league in passing yards, and is among the leaders in most passing categories. As a Washington Homer, I've said repeatedly that 1) We have one of the worst home field advantages in the NFL, and the NBA for that matter, and 2) that Washington is horrible as a favorite, and even worse as a favorite of 6-7 or more. Washington has always had trouble with the Giants, even in Daniel Jones's rookie season where he was a turnover machine. This would also be a tail of someone's pick that I respect a lot. (1 PM)
Chicago +7.5 (L1) at Detroit (W2). I'll count last week's push as a loss for Chicago because it was 3.5 the entire week until late on Thursday. This is purely a public fade. I'm surprised to see the consensus so high when Justin Fields is returning, and he's one of the most dangerous players in the league. He's a turnover machine, but maybe rehabbing and watching the Bears win a couple of games and look competent in 3 of the 4 did him some good. The Bears have played Detroit tough in most of the past recent meetings, and that was with Justin Fields and Jared Goff at QB. Detroit's defense has improved, but it hasn't improved thattt much. They're still 20th in the league in points allowed. (1 PM)
Not Many Choices for 4 PM
San Fran -12.5 (W1) vs. Tampa Bay (W3). Are the Niners back after thrashing Jacksonville last week? Possibly. Tampa Bay has stepped up against the run the past several weeks, which lines up more with what we've typically seen of the Tampa run defense for years. So what happens if they can slow down Mccaffrey? There's no shame in SF losing to Cleveland (defense), Minnesota (Cousins), and Cincinnati (DEF + OFF) in 3 weeks.
Not really sure about this game. But if I had to pick, I'd give the points rather than take them. Purdy is 4-1 in his career giving double digit points, and I remember the game that he lost, and that line wasn't 10. It was 9 the night before the game. (4 PM)
Seattle +1.5 (L3, P1, L1) at LA Rams (L3). This is a rematch from week 1, where the Rams and Puca Nacua smoked them 30-13. I really don't like that a 3-6 team is giving points to a 6-3 team though. That looks very odd on it's face, but makes sense considering the outcome of the first game, and the fact that Seattle hasn't covered any of their last 5 games, and had an emotional win last week, while the Rams were on their bye week.
Looking into the game some more, but very, very slight lean to Seattle for now.
Will probably finalize in another post later on.
System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-3):
Nothing this week.
2023
22-20-1 Plays, 11-17 Leans
2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
Last week 1-4 plays, 0-2 leans.
Doing something a little different this week. I'm going to attempt to select 1 best play at 1 PM, and 1 best play at 4 PM.
Possibles:
Miami (U1) / Las Vegas (U3) OVER 45.5. The Raiders are 2-0 under the new coach, but it was against two subpar teams in the Giants and Jets who don't have much offensively. Miami comes off their bye week after going down 21-0 to the Chiefs, and scoring 2 TDs late to make it look more respectable than it was. I just checked out last year, and off their bye week, Miami beat Houston 30-15 as a 14 pt favorite, so barely covering the line, and it went under the total of 48. I would say Vegas is better offensively than Houston was last year, but not by much, and have a better defense than they did, but not by much. If I'm taking the over, I'm leaning more on Tua to have a good game, which he usually does following a stinker. O'Connell has produced at least 16 points in every one of his starts this season, and this is by far the worst defense he will face. Miami has put up at least 31 pts in their last 3 games following a loss. (1 PM)
Also keep in mind that Antonio Pierce was a defensive coach, not an offensive coach. So if the Raiders hang around, it's probably because of the defense.
NY Giants +9.5 (L2, P1) at Washington (W3). I've gone away from the whole "revenge" for the second meeting of the season system. Over the past 2-3 years, it's been uncanny that the team that covered the last meeting covers again the second. The Giants beat Washington 14-7 in NY earlier this season, but that was with Tyrod Taylor, who I've been saying is a very competent QB that doesn't make a ton of mistakes. I dunno about this Tommy DeVito guy. Not to sound racist or anything, but I haven't really seen much success from Italian QBs in my day (i.e. Ben DiNucci).
DeVito completed 14 passes for only 86 yards last week. And most of that came on a gifted TD drive at the end of the game.
Anyways, around the local social media, it's been put out pretty prevalently that Sam Howell is leading the league in passing yards, and is among the leaders in most passing categories. As a Washington Homer, I've said repeatedly that 1) We have one of the worst home field advantages in the NFL, and the NBA for that matter, and 2) that Washington is horrible as a favorite, and even worse as a favorite of 6-7 or more. Washington has always had trouble with the Giants, even in Daniel Jones's rookie season where he was a turnover machine. This would also be a tail of someone's pick that I respect a lot. (1 PM)
Chicago +7.5 (L1) at Detroit (W2). I'll count last week's push as a loss for Chicago because it was 3.5 the entire week until late on Thursday. This is purely a public fade. I'm surprised to see the consensus so high when Justin Fields is returning, and he's one of the most dangerous players in the league. He's a turnover machine, but maybe rehabbing and watching the Bears win a couple of games and look competent in 3 of the 4 did him some good. The Bears have played Detroit tough in most of the past recent meetings, and that was with Justin Fields and Jared Goff at QB. Detroit's defense has improved, but it hasn't improved thattt much. They're still 20th in the league in points allowed. (1 PM)
Not Many Choices for 4 PM
San Fran -12.5 (W1) vs. Tampa Bay (W3). Are the Niners back after thrashing Jacksonville last week? Possibly. Tampa Bay has stepped up against the run the past several weeks, which lines up more with what we've typically seen of the Tampa run defense for years. So what happens if they can slow down Mccaffrey? There's no shame in SF losing to Cleveland (defense), Minnesota (Cousins), and Cincinnati (DEF + OFF) in 3 weeks.
Not really sure about this game. But if I had to pick, I'd give the points rather than take them. Purdy is 4-1 in his career giving double digit points, and I remember the game that he lost, and that line wasn't 10. It was 9 the night before the game. (4 PM)
Seattle +1.5 (L3, P1, L1) at LA Rams (L3). This is a rematch from week 1, where the Rams and Puca Nacua smoked them 30-13. I really don't like that a 3-6 team is giving points to a 6-3 team though. That looks very odd on it's face, but makes sense considering the outcome of the first game, and the fact that Seattle hasn't covered any of their last 5 games, and had an emotional win last week, while the Rams were on their bye week.
Looking into the game some more, but very, very slight lean to Seattle for now.
Will probably finalize in another post later on.
System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-3):
Nothing this week.
2023
22-20-1 Plays, 11-17 Leans
2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
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