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Dunno how it's possible I can miss yet another parlay by 1 game, 8 out of 9 weeks. Buffalo really took a step back this season. Dunno what's wrong with them.
I'm not even mad thinking about it right now because I got the luckiest cover by Utah today. Pick 6 dropped Desean Jackson style at the 1 yard line, followed by a blocked 30 yard FG with a min left.
Anyways, last week 4-1 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-1 system plays.
Busy this week, so my writeups may be short or come in late again. I don't particularly like anything this week, so it probably won't be one of my better ones.
Possibles:
New Orleans -3 (L1) at Minnesota (W4). I originally wrote Minnesota here, but I changed my mind. New Orleans plays better on the road than they do at home. Minnesota is coming off an emotional win with Josh Dobbs orchestrating a game winning drive with under 2 mins left. It's a feel good story, but I don't think the sequel works out too well for them. Atlanta gave that game away, just like I expected them to.
Cleveland +6.5 (W1) at Baltimore (W1). They've split the series the last 2 years ATS, and I think they'll do it again. I dunno where Baltimore has gotten this offense all of a sudden scoring 30 points a game three weeks in a row. After the 28-3 first meeting, I think Cleveland keeps it closer this time.
NY Giants (U7) / Dallas (O2) UNDER 39.5. Dallas put 40 on the Giants themselves the first meeting. There's a trend about double digit favorites and unders, so I think this could be a good candidate for an under. The Giants defense has played much better as the season has come along. I would like it better if Tyrod Taylor was in. He's conservative, mistake free ball would prob keep the game low scoring. Tommy Devito in his first start. Don't have the guts to play the backup QB system for this one, but if he covers, it has to be because the defense keeps them in the game.
Seattle -5.5 (L2, P, L1) vs. Washington (W2). Line seems high for two teams that seems kinda evenly matched, and the Seahawks struggling and getting blown out 37-3 last week. Washington won and covered their first game after being sellers at the trade deadline, but I'm not suspect about them covering again. The line really should be Seattle -3 or 3.5.
NY Jets -1 (L1) Las Vegas (W1). Dunno how the Jets are giving road chalk in this situation. Jets coming off a blowout loss to the Chargers, and Vegas winning the new coach system in a blowout of the Giants. This is also part of me thinking longer term. I think the intrigue of Rodgers coming back this season is a storyline the NFL wants to keep alive. That only happens if the Jets are at least in the hunt for a playoff spot. They stand at 4-4 now, with games at Buffalo and vs. Miami coming up. Losing those 3 games in a row could effectively end their season right there. Though the back end schedule isn't too bad. I suppose they could lose this game, split Buffalo and Miami, and go in a little run at the end of the year, but I think this really is a must win here.
Leans:
Green Bay +3 (W1) at Pittsburgh (W1). I'll probably end up staying away from this game. Line doesn't make much sense, but I guess both teams are one final drive away from being 4-4. All Pittsburgh's wins are by 7 or less. And Pittsburgh has a mini Antonio Brown problem with George Pickens Jr. going on.
Buffalo -7 (L5) vs. Denver (W2). This is probably just a chase play. Buffalo has lost 5 in a row ATS, and are not looking at all like a SB contender. Denver has won 2 games in a row, including beating the Chiefs handily in their last game. With the way Buffalo has been playing, with Denver's big win, I think people will overvalue Denver coming off the bye week here. This is the same defense that let Miami hang 70 on them not too long ago. I'm not that impressed with a win in their biggest game of the year, against a division rival, and skating past a bad Green Bay team the week prior to that.
No Plays:
San Fran -3 (L3) at Jacksonville (W5). Not much to this one other than San Fran is due for a bounce back. Giving 3 on the road to arguably the hottest team in the league seems a bit high.
I'll pass on this game. San Fran was riding the highest of highs from last season, up until the first 5 of this season. They will be overvalued for the foreseeable future.
System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-3):
Nothing this week.
2023
21-16-1 Plays, 11-15 Leans
2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
I'm not even mad thinking about it right now because I got the luckiest cover by Utah today. Pick 6 dropped Desean Jackson style at the 1 yard line, followed by a blocked 30 yard FG with a min left.
Anyways, last week 4-1 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-1 system plays.
Busy this week, so my writeups may be short or come in late again. I don't particularly like anything this week, so it probably won't be one of my better ones.
Possibles:
New Orleans -3 (L1) at Minnesota (W4). I originally wrote Minnesota here, but I changed my mind. New Orleans plays better on the road than they do at home. Minnesota is coming off an emotional win with Josh Dobbs orchestrating a game winning drive with under 2 mins left. It's a feel good story, but I don't think the sequel works out too well for them. Atlanta gave that game away, just like I expected them to.
Cleveland +6.5 (W1) at Baltimore (W1). They've split the series the last 2 years ATS, and I think they'll do it again. I dunno where Baltimore has gotten this offense all of a sudden scoring 30 points a game three weeks in a row. After the 28-3 first meeting, I think Cleveland keeps it closer this time.
NY Giants (U7) / Dallas (O2) UNDER 39.5. Dallas put 40 on the Giants themselves the first meeting. There's a trend about double digit favorites and unders, so I think this could be a good candidate for an under. The Giants defense has played much better as the season has come along. I would like it better if Tyrod Taylor was in. He's conservative, mistake free ball would prob keep the game low scoring. Tommy Devito in his first start. Don't have the guts to play the backup QB system for this one, but if he covers, it has to be because the defense keeps them in the game.
Seattle -5.5 (L2, P, L1) vs. Washington (W2). Line seems high for two teams that seems kinda evenly matched, and the Seahawks struggling and getting blown out 37-3 last week. Washington won and covered their first game after being sellers at the trade deadline, but I'm not suspect about them covering again. The line really should be Seattle -3 or 3.5.
NY Jets -1 (L1) Las Vegas (W1). Dunno how the Jets are giving road chalk in this situation. Jets coming off a blowout loss to the Chargers, and Vegas winning the new coach system in a blowout of the Giants. This is also part of me thinking longer term. I think the intrigue of Rodgers coming back this season is a storyline the NFL wants to keep alive. That only happens if the Jets are at least in the hunt for a playoff spot. They stand at 4-4 now, with games at Buffalo and vs. Miami coming up. Losing those 3 games in a row could effectively end their season right there. Though the back end schedule isn't too bad. I suppose they could lose this game, split Buffalo and Miami, and go in a little run at the end of the year, but I think this really is a must win here.
Leans:
Green Bay +3 (W1) at Pittsburgh (W1). I'll probably end up staying away from this game. Line doesn't make much sense, but I guess both teams are one final drive away from being 4-4. All Pittsburgh's wins are by 7 or less. And Pittsburgh has a mini Antonio Brown problem with George Pickens Jr. going on.
Buffalo -7 (L5) vs. Denver (W2). This is probably just a chase play. Buffalo has lost 5 in a row ATS, and are not looking at all like a SB contender. Denver has won 2 games in a row, including beating the Chiefs handily in their last game. With the way Buffalo has been playing, with Denver's big win, I think people will overvalue Denver coming off the bye week here. This is the same defense that let Miami hang 70 on them not too long ago. I'm not that impressed with a win in their biggest game of the year, against a division rival, and skating past a bad Green Bay team the week prior to that.
No Plays:
San Fran -3 (L3) at Jacksonville (W5). Not much to this one other than San Fran is due for a bounce back. Giving 3 on the road to arguably the hottest team in the league seems a bit high.
I'll pass on this game. San Fran was riding the highest of highs from last season, up until the first 5 of this season. They will be overvalued for the foreseeable future.
System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-3):
Nothing this week.
2023
21-16-1 Plays, 11-15 Leans
2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
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