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Missed two parlays last week because of 1 game yet again. That's 7 out of 8 weeks I've missed by one pick. I even bet Arizona to backdoor the 9.5 last week because that would make me lose by one game again. When they scored and dropped it down to 10, I was a bit puzzled when they missed the 2 pt. But everything made sense again after they recovered the onside kick and immediately went for the field goal 
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Also lost my 12 pick same game parlay (+7500 odds) on Chargers in a blowout over the Bears, except Palmer didn't have over 40.5 receiving yards
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Anyways, starting the outline tonight. Will fill in the rest later. I've got a couple of system plays already.
Last week 2-2 Plays, 2-2 leans, 1-1 system plays. Flat week.
Week 8 Byes: None.
Week 10 Byes: Kansas City, LA Rams, Miami, Philly
Plays:
Vegas Raiders -1.5 (L2) vs. Giants (P1, W2). This is the new coach system. It's a bit scary because the Raiders are a dumpster fire, but isn't every team that fires their coach before the season is over a dumpster fire? Nothing new there. Daniel Jones likely back for the Giants which is a downgrade in most cases IMO, and Jimmy G has been benched in favor of Aiden O'Connell. I really liked how O'Connell played against the Chargers. They should have covered that game, except for a couple of costly fumbles by O'Connell and the boneheaded play calling at the end of the game. Giants traded away a pass rusher at the deadline. If the Raiders fail me this week, it will be very hard to bet them again this season.
Indy -2.5 (L1) at Carolina (W1). If I was basing this pick before last week, it would feel kinda like a sucker bet because Carolina has been so bad this season, and Indy has had an explosive offense at times. But Carolina getting the upset over a very dangerous Texans team, and Indy losing by double digits to the Saints who only covered 1 game all season gives me the go ahead. Carolina was awful last year ATS, awful this year ATS, and it's a decent spot to take them off a big win and an Indy loss. (System Play).
Minnesota +3.5 (W3) at Atlanta (L1). Sometimes it's difficult for me to take the backup QB in their first start, but not with this one. I don't really care who Minnesota has at QB. With the way I saw Atlanta play 2 weeks ago, trying to give that game away, Minnesota should have every opportunity to win this game. I'll take the points with no hesitation. Minnesota's defense has also stepped up this year. 5 unders in a row, and I won't be chasing those overs anymore.
Chicago +8.5 (L1) at New Orleans (W1). Leaning the bears in this one off the blowout loss. Bagent is a decent QB. I'd back him over Fields. It feels like every time I take New Orleans cuz I think the line is high, they always let me down by going down 14-0 early. Also, the Saints are a better road team than home team this season. Also lean over 41. If the Bears want to cover this game, I think they'll need to put up 20, and the Bears defense should be good for most teams to put 20 on, even with the addition of Montez Sweat.
Leans For Now:
Miami +1.5 (W1) vs. Kansas City (L1). Total 50.5. Does Miami lay an egg again against a an upper tier team, while they continue to feast on the bad teams of the NFL? This is a neutral field, so the line is about right I think, maybe a little low. Leaning Miami and over 50.5 in this one. I think Miami will put up points in this one, but I'm not sure if the defense can hold up. Also a bad spot to fade KC off a bad Denver loss. I think I'll lay off the side and just go with the over on this one.
New England -2.5 (L1) vs. Washington (P1, L1). Washington got the push or the win last week depending on your line. Washington had their usual up game after a down game the week before. Howell threw for 397 yards and 4 TDs, and they covered though they didn't get the win. So I'll count that as an "up" performance for now. The line is pretty fair otherwise. They're basically saying Washington is the slightly better team based on their play this season, and that's correct. Bill Belichick is a legendary coach that can probably give rookie QBs fits though. Especially a rookie that gets sacked and turns the ball over as much as this one. The only concern I have is that Washington were the big sellers at the trade deadline with Chase Young and Sweat gone. And I don't like betting against sellers in the first week.
Arizona +11.5 (W1) at Cleveland (W1). The backup QB system with Clayton Tune starting for Arizona in his likely only start of the season as Murray will probably be back next week. Watson likely returning this week. Scary one, as I kinda see the game script with Watson struggling against a below average defense, but Cleveland's defense shutting down Arizona to like a 17-3 type win. I like the system, but don't really like this matchup too much. Probably a pass.
Official play Lean under 37.5
No Plays:
Green Bay -3 (L4) vs. LA Rams (L2). The rare public dog with LA Rams here. I take back what I said about Jordan Love earlier this season. He's pretty much what I thought he would be prior to the season. He tricked me. This become a no play if Matt Stafford doesn't play, as I typically don't bet against backup QBs. Stafford is listed as a game time decision. Green Bay has lost 4 in a row, and it would have been 5 if Derek Carr didn't get hurt. LA Rams coming in off a blowout loss to Dallas. Both due for a bounce back.
Matt Stafford unlikely to play as of Saturday night. Moving this to a no play.
System Plays (1-1), Half System Plays (2-2):
System Play - Indy -2.5 (L1) at Carolina (W1). If I was basing this pick before last week, it would feel kinda like a sucker bet because Carolina has been so bad this season, and Indy has had an explosive offense at times. But Carolina getting the upset over a very dangerous Texans team, and Indy losing by double digits to the Saints who only covered 1 game all season gives me the go ahead. Carolina was awful last year ATS, awful this year ATS, and it's a decent spot to take them off a big win and an Indy loss.
Half System Play - Buffalo +1.5 (L4) at Cincinnati (W3). Buffalo on a 4 game losing streak against the spread is pretty rare. Burrow says he's much healthier than he was at the start of the season, so there won't be much more puzzling games like earlier in the season. I don't have much of an opinion on this one, but I believe it's a half system play so I'm listing it.
2023
17-15-1 Plays, 10-14 Leans
2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
.Also lost my 12 pick same game parlay (+7500 odds) on Chargers in a blowout over the Bears, except Palmer didn't have over 40.5 receiving yards
.Anyways, starting the outline tonight. Will fill in the rest later. I've got a couple of system plays already.
Last week 2-2 Plays, 2-2 leans, 1-1 system plays. Flat week.
Week 8 Byes: None.
Week 10 Byes: Kansas City, LA Rams, Miami, Philly
Plays:
Vegas Raiders -1.5 (L2) vs. Giants (P1, W2). This is the new coach system. It's a bit scary because the Raiders are a dumpster fire, but isn't every team that fires their coach before the season is over a dumpster fire? Nothing new there. Daniel Jones likely back for the Giants which is a downgrade in most cases IMO, and Jimmy G has been benched in favor of Aiden O'Connell. I really liked how O'Connell played against the Chargers. They should have covered that game, except for a couple of costly fumbles by O'Connell and the boneheaded play calling at the end of the game. Giants traded away a pass rusher at the deadline. If the Raiders fail me this week, it will be very hard to bet them again this season.
Indy -2.5 (L1) at Carolina (W1). If I was basing this pick before last week, it would feel kinda like a sucker bet because Carolina has been so bad this season, and Indy has had an explosive offense at times. But Carolina getting the upset over a very dangerous Texans team, and Indy losing by double digits to the Saints who only covered 1 game all season gives me the go ahead. Carolina was awful last year ATS, awful this year ATS, and it's a decent spot to take them off a big win and an Indy loss. (System Play).
Minnesota +3.5 (W3) at Atlanta (L1). Sometimes it's difficult for me to take the backup QB in their first start, but not with this one. I don't really care who Minnesota has at QB. With the way I saw Atlanta play 2 weeks ago, trying to give that game away, Minnesota should have every opportunity to win this game. I'll take the points with no hesitation. Minnesota's defense has also stepped up this year. 5 unders in a row, and I won't be chasing those overs anymore.
Chicago +8.5 (L1) at New Orleans (W1). Leaning the bears in this one off the blowout loss. Bagent is a decent QB. I'd back him over Fields. It feels like every time I take New Orleans cuz I think the line is high, they always let me down by going down 14-0 early. Also, the Saints are a better road team than home team this season. Also lean over 41. If the Bears want to cover this game, I think they'll need to put up 20, and the Bears defense should be good for most teams to put 20 on, even with the addition of Montez Sweat.
Leans For Now:
Miami +1.5 (W1) vs. Kansas City (L1). Total 50.5. Does Miami lay an egg again against a an upper tier team, while they continue to feast on the bad teams of the NFL? This is a neutral field, so the line is about right I think, maybe a little low. Leaning Miami and over 50.5 in this one. I think Miami will put up points in this one, but I'm not sure if the defense can hold up. Also a bad spot to fade KC off a bad Denver loss. I think I'll lay off the side and just go with the over on this one.
New England -2.5 (L1) vs. Washington (P1, L1). Washington got the push or the win last week depending on your line. Washington had their usual up game after a down game the week before. Howell threw for 397 yards and 4 TDs, and they covered though they didn't get the win. So I'll count that as an "up" performance for now. The line is pretty fair otherwise. They're basically saying Washington is the slightly better team based on their play this season, and that's correct. Bill Belichick is a legendary coach that can probably give rookie QBs fits though. Especially a rookie that gets sacked and turns the ball over as much as this one. The only concern I have is that Washington were the big sellers at the trade deadline with Chase Young and Sweat gone. And I don't like betting against sellers in the first week.
Arizona +11.5 (W1) at Cleveland (W1). The backup QB system with Clayton Tune starting for Arizona in his likely only start of the season as Murray will probably be back next week. Watson likely returning this week. Scary one, as I kinda see the game script with Watson struggling against a below average defense, but Cleveland's defense shutting down Arizona to like a 17-3 type win. I like the system, but don't really like this matchup too much. Probably a pass.
Official play Lean under 37.5
No Plays:
Green Bay -3 (L4) vs. LA Rams (L2). The rare public dog with LA Rams here. I take back what I said about Jordan Love earlier this season. He's pretty much what I thought he would be prior to the season. He tricked me. This become a no play if Matt Stafford doesn't play, as I typically don't bet against backup QBs. Stafford is listed as a game time decision. Green Bay has lost 4 in a row, and it would have been 5 if Derek Carr didn't get hurt. LA Rams coming in off a blowout loss to Dallas. Both due for a bounce back.
Matt Stafford unlikely to play as of Saturday night. Moving this to a no play.
System Plays (1-1), Half System Plays (2-2):
System Play - Indy -2.5 (L1) at Carolina (W1). If I was basing this pick before last week, it would feel kinda like a sucker bet because Carolina has been so bad this season, and Indy has had an explosive offense at times. But Carolina getting the upset over a very dangerous Texans team, and Indy losing by double digits to the Saints who only covered 1 game all season gives me the go ahead. Carolina was awful last year ATS, awful this year ATS, and it's a decent spot to take them off a big win and an Indy loss.
Half System Play - Buffalo +1.5 (L4) at Cincinnati (W3). Buffalo on a 4 game losing streak against the spread is pretty rare. Burrow says he's much healthier than he was at the start of the season, so there won't be much more puzzling games like earlier in the season. I don't have much of an opinion on this one, but I believe it's a half system play so I'm listing it.
2023
17-15-1 Plays, 10-14 Leans
2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
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