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Getting the weekly template out of the way and filling in the picks later.
I usually end up playing a lot of stuff I don't post on here for the 4 o'clock session. There's been 6 NFL weeks, and I've missed my parlay by 1 pick in 5 of those 6 weeks. Such a killer. New England killed my parlay last week, but at least I took the ML, so I didn't lose cuz of that BS safety or I would have been really pissed.
Anyways, lots of byes this week. Not a lot catching my eye, so I'll need some time to look into it later.
Last week 2-3 plays, 2-1 leans. 0-2 Half System Plays.
Week 8 (Next Week) Byes: NONE? Wow, no byes for week 8. What's so special about Week 8? Owell.
Last Week Byes: Green Bay, Pittsburgh.
It's almost 3 AM and I'm tiring down. Listing my eyed picks and will revise later.
Plays:
Philly -3 (L1) vs. Miami (W2). Philly seems to play well every other game as well. Miami went down 14-0 to Carolina last week before pouring it on afterwards. Philly is a flawed team, but they know what they want to do. Run the ball, and Miami hasn't shown the ability to stop anyone this season, including the Patriots, Panthers, and Giants offenses.
I also like the OVER 52.5 in this game. One thing I love doing is taking the overs on two teams that like to run the ball, and are excellent at doing it. All this hoopla with Tyreek and Waddle and AJ Brown and Smith, but both these teams have been excellent running the ball this year.
Okay, final pick is OVER 52.5 as a play, and Philly -3 as a lean.
Baltimore ML -165 (W1) vs. Detroit (W4). Kinda lean Baltimore here. Their offense has struggled for most of the season, but their defense has been really good every game.
I kinda got a "cooler" moment with Baltimore as someone else picked them. This feels like the last meeting, where Baltimore could win, but not cover. Detroit is very quietly 5-1 this season, and 5-1 ATS.
Going back and forth with this one, but I think the best thing to do is probably take Baltimore ML just in case. Money Line -165 is a small price to pay.
NY Giants +3 (W1) vs. Washington (W1). Sam Howell is going to be a solid quarterback in this league. He still has the young QB issues with turning the ball over, and he's yet to put together back to back good games. Giants usually play Washington tough. Giants defense has stepped up often this season, and they can get to the QB and cause turnovers.
Atlanta +3 (L5) at Tampa Bay (L1). With my usual weekly fade pick it was between Atlanta and New England. I feel like I can stomach Atlanta a little bit better this week knowing the line isn't that high.
LA Chargers +5.5 (L1) at KC (W5). If you cover up the teams, you've got a 5-1 team home against a 2-3 team, so a 5.5 line is low to fair. That's why I'm not that concerned about this being too public of a dog, as everyone loves taking the Chargers.
Leans:
Philly -3. See above.
Seattle -8.5 (L1) vs. Arizona (L3). The cardinals were my team earlier in the season, but it looks like Dobbs is starting to get exposed for the journeyman career backup that he is. This could be Dobb's last start of the season. I think I've used this angle before, and the backup usually doesn't step up like I thought they would. Murray just got designated to return from IR, so he could be back next week.
No Plays:
New England +7.5 (L3) vs. Buffalo (L2). Buffalo's offense has really laid an egg the past couple of weeks. Not sure if I'm ready to make the Patriots this year's Denver that i keep chasing. It's New England or nothing, but I haven't decided if it's going to be nothing or not yet.
In the weekly fade, it was either gonna be Atlanta or New England as my fade. And I think I'd rather ride with Atlanta this week, instead of subjecting myself to another week with New England.
+7.5 at home is actually a lot of points. Cleveland with their backup QB caught +9.5 against the Niners last week. That's basically what they think of New England these days.
Cleveland -3.5 (W1) at Indy (L1). Cleveland with the huge win against SF last week with the backup QB. Watson is expected to return this week. It looks like Minshew's team the rest of the season. He's good in small doses, but if you give him extended starts, his inconsistency really shows. I initially liked Cleveland in this one, but I'm a bit fearful of the letdown spot after last week. Small nod to Indy right now but I'm not sure.
No play here. Too much going back and forth.
System Plays (1-0), Half System Plays (1-2):
Nothing this week.
2023
12-11-1 Plays, 6-12 Leans
2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
I usually end up playing a lot of stuff I don't post on here for the 4 o'clock session. There's been 6 NFL weeks, and I've missed my parlay by 1 pick in 5 of those 6 weeks. Such a killer. New England killed my parlay last week, but at least I took the ML, so I didn't lose cuz of that BS safety or I would have been really pissed.
Anyways, lots of byes this week. Not a lot catching my eye, so I'll need some time to look into it later.
Last week 2-3 plays, 2-1 leans. 0-2 Half System Plays.
Week 8 (Next Week) Byes: NONE? Wow, no byes for week 8. What's so special about Week 8? Owell.
Last Week Byes: Green Bay, Pittsburgh.
It's almost 3 AM and I'm tiring down. Listing my eyed picks and will revise later.
Plays:
Philly -3 (L1) vs. Miami (W2). Philly seems to play well every other game as well. Miami went down 14-0 to Carolina last week before pouring it on afterwards. Philly is a flawed team, but they know what they want to do. Run the ball, and Miami hasn't shown the ability to stop anyone this season, including the Patriots, Panthers, and Giants offenses.
I also like the OVER 52.5 in this game. One thing I love doing is taking the overs on two teams that like to run the ball, and are excellent at doing it. All this hoopla with Tyreek and Waddle and AJ Brown and Smith, but both these teams have been excellent running the ball this year.
Okay, final pick is OVER 52.5 as a play, and Philly -3 as a lean.
Baltimore ML -165 (W1) vs. Detroit (W4). Kinda lean Baltimore here. Their offense has struggled for most of the season, but their defense has been really good every game.
I kinda got a "cooler" moment with Baltimore as someone else picked them. This feels like the last meeting, where Baltimore could win, but not cover. Detroit is very quietly 5-1 this season, and 5-1 ATS.
Going back and forth with this one, but I think the best thing to do is probably take Baltimore ML just in case. Money Line -165 is a small price to pay.
NY Giants +3 (W1) vs. Washington (W1). Sam Howell is going to be a solid quarterback in this league. He still has the young QB issues with turning the ball over, and he's yet to put together back to back good games. Giants usually play Washington tough. Giants defense has stepped up often this season, and they can get to the QB and cause turnovers.
Atlanta +3 (L5) at Tampa Bay (L1). With my usual weekly fade pick it was between Atlanta and New England. I feel like I can stomach Atlanta a little bit better this week knowing the line isn't that high.
LA Chargers +5.5 (L1) at KC (W5). If you cover up the teams, you've got a 5-1 team home against a 2-3 team, so a 5.5 line is low to fair. That's why I'm not that concerned about this being too public of a dog, as everyone loves taking the Chargers.
Leans:
Philly -3. See above.
Seattle -8.5 (L1) vs. Arizona (L3). The cardinals were my team earlier in the season, but it looks like Dobbs is starting to get exposed for the journeyman career backup that he is. This could be Dobb's last start of the season. I think I've used this angle before, and the backup usually doesn't step up like I thought they would. Murray just got designated to return from IR, so he could be back next week.
No Plays:
New England +7.5 (L3) vs. Buffalo (L2). Buffalo's offense has really laid an egg the past couple of weeks. Not sure if I'm ready to make the Patriots this year's Denver that i keep chasing. It's New England or nothing, but I haven't decided if it's going to be nothing or not yet.
In the weekly fade, it was either gonna be Atlanta or New England as my fade. And I think I'd rather ride with Atlanta this week, instead of subjecting myself to another week with New England.
+7.5 at home is actually a lot of points. Cleveland with their backup QB caught +9.5 against the Niners last week. That's basically what they think of New England these days.
Cleveland -3.5 (W1) at Indy (L1). Cleveland with the huge win against SF last week with the backup QB. Watson is expected to return this week. It looks like Minshew's team the rest of the season. He's good in small doses, but if you give him extended starts, his inconsistency really shows. I initially liked Cleveland in this one, but I'm a bit fearful of the letdown spot after last week. Small nod to Indy right now but I'm not sure.
No play here. Too much going back and forth.
System Plays (1-0), Half System Plays (1-2):
Nothing this week.
2023
12-11-1 Plays, 6-12 Leans
2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
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