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Very late start to this week's post. I'm not sure what would be worse to do; miss a weekly post for the first time in years, or give half assed picks that I didn't really look into.
I'll go ahead and post, but I've had a really hectic week with not much time to look into anything.
2-2 Plays, 0-2 leans last week. Dunno why my leans have been so bad this season. Maybe I'm putting too much logic into them.
Plays:
New England +3 (L2) at LV Raiders (W1). I think it's a good spot to take the Patriots off two consecutive blowouts, and the Raiders off a win. Bill has really lost it if he gets blown out a third game in a row, but i doubt it. Jimmy G doesn't blow out anyone.
Carolina +14 (L5) at Miami (W1). Tua threw a couple of picks last week, one of which turned into a TD. Hesitate to take Carolina, who has lost every game ATS, but their defense should be able to step up against Tua's mistake prone butt.
Seattle +3 (W3) at Cincy (W1) (Half System Play). Is Joe Burrow Back cuz he had one good game against the Cardinals? We'll see. He hasn't put together consecutive performances yet. I'll make this one a play because the other half system play lost.
LA Rams -7 (L1) vs Arizona (L2). The Cardinals have lost their last 2 games since beating Dallas. Josh Dobbs isn't bad, but he's not a franchise QB.
NY Jets +7 (W2) vs. Philly (W1). Philly keeps winning, but the flaws are showing up each week and the games have been close.
Leans:
Minnesota -2.5 (L1) at Chicago (W1). Justin Fields had easily his best game of the season last week, and Minnesota comes in as a mess, and missing Justin Jefferson. I think Addison and KJ Osborn along with Hockenson will fill in fine against this defense. I originally had the over as a lean in this game, but the rate it has dropped since the open is pretty shocking to me. 47.5 to 43.5 just because of Jefferson? That's a blizzard type total drop.
Edit: Bad rainy weather is probably the reason for the total drop.
The weather is starting to look better, so I'm adding a LEAN to OVER 43.5. The wind factor is overblown, pun intended.
Cleveland +9.5 (L1) vs. San Fran (W3). We've seen this backup lay an egg before. I wouldn't be surprised if 99% of the bets are on San Fran this week one way or another. I dunno who would back Cleveland this week after what San Fran did to Dallas on Sunday Night. I don't even have the guts to play it myself, which probably means the Cleveland defense will put pressure on Purdy, stuff the run, and keep it a close game.
No Play:
Tampa Bay +3 (W1) vs. Detroit (W3). If the Detroit's defense didn't let up in the second half, this would probably one of those famous system plays. Lions surprised me by living up to the hype so far. But the Tampa DEF should be able to hold him in line.
This is a no play. 4-1 team at a 3-1 team, and the 3-1 team is catching a full 3 at home, and previously had the hook. That's too many points.
System Plays (1-0), Half System Plays (1-0):
I think we may have two half system plays this week. They probably split, but I'm listing all of them.
Tennessee +5.5 (L1) vs. Baltimore (L1) (England) (Half System Play). It feels like Tennessee's defense shows up every other week. Whether they show up or not, Baltimore's offense is probably one of the least feared in the league this season.
Seattle +2.5 (W3) at Cincy (W1) (Half System Play). Is Joe Burrow Back cuz he had one good game against the Cardinals? We'll see. He hasn't put together consecutive performances yet.
2023
10-8-1 Plays, 4-11 Leans
2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
I'll go ahead and post, but I've had a really hectic week with not much time to look into anything.
2-2 Plays, 0-2 leans last week. Dunno why my leans have been so bad this season. Maybe I'm putting too much logic into them.
Plays:
New England +3 (L2) at LV Raiders (W1). I think it's a good spot to take the Patriots off two consecutive blowouts, and the Raiders off a win. Bill has really lost it if he gets blown out a third game in a row, but i doubt it. Jimmy G doesn't blow out anyone.
Carolina +14 (L5) at Miami (W1). Tua threw a couple of picks last week, one of which turned into a TD. Hesitate to take Carolina, who has lost every game ATS, but their defense should be able to step up against Tua's mistake prone butt.
Seattle +3 (W3) at Cincy (W1) (Half System Play). Is Joe Burrow Back cuz he had one good game against the Cardinals? We'll see. He hasn't put together consecutive performances yet. I'll make this one a play because the other half system play lost.
LA Rams -7 (L1) vs Arizona (L2). The Cardinals have lost their last 2 games since beating Dallas. Josh Dobbs isn't bad, but he's not a franchise QB.
NY Jets +7 (W2) vs. Philly (W1). Philly keeps winning, but the flaws are showing up each week and the games have been close.
Leans:
Minnesota -2.5 (L1) at Chicago (W1). Justin Fields had easily his best game of the season last week, and Minnesota comes in as a mess, and missing Justin Jefferson. I think Addison and KJ Osborn along with Hockenson will fill in fine against this defense. I originally had the over as a lean in this game, but the rate it has dropped since the open is pretty shocking to me. 47.5 to 43.5 just because of Jefferson? That's a blizzard type total drop.
Edit: Bad rainy weather is probably the reason for the total drop.
The weather is starting to look better, so I'm adding a LEAN to OVER 43.5. The wind factor is overblown, pun intended.
Cleveland +9.5 (L1) vs. San Fran (W3). We've seen this backup lay an egg before. I wouldn't be surprised if 99% of the bets are on San Fran this week one way or another. I dunno who would back Cleveland this week after what San Fran did to Dallas on Sunday Night. I don't even have the guts to play it myself, which probably means the Cleveland defense will put pressure on Purdy, stuff the run, and keep it a close game.
No Play:
Tampa Bay +3 (W1) vs. Detroit (W3). If the Detroit's defense didn't let up in the second half, this would probably one of those famous system plays. Lions surprised me by living up to the hype so far. But the Tampa DEF should be able to hold him in line.
This is a no play. 4-1 team at a 3-1 team, and the 3-1 team is catching a full 3 at home, and previously had the hook. That's too many points.
System Plays (1-0), Half System Plays (1-0):
I think we may have two half system plays this week. They probably split, but I'm listing all of them.
Tennessee +5.5 (L1) vs. Baltimore (L1) (England) (Half System Play). It feels like Tennessee's defense shows up every other week. Whether they show up or not, Baltimore's offense is probably one of the least feared in the league this season.
Seattle +2.5 (W3) at Cincy (W1) (Half System Play). Is Joe Burrow Back cuz he had one good game against the Cardinals? We'll see. He hasn't put together consecutive performances yet.
2023
10-8-1 Plays, 4-11 Leans
2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs