Week 5 Notes

[recovering77]

I'll do my usual weekly write up in a separate post under this thread. Putting a Thursday Night Play out there.


Chicago +6.5 (P1, L7 (including last year) at Washington. I've been talking a lot of trash about Chicago this season. For good reason, they're 0-3-1 ATS this season. Using last week's performances doesn't really give me an edge to either team. Chicago was up 28-7 and blew the lead in a heartbreaker. Washington scored at the buzzer to push OT at Philly, but also lost in a heartbreaker. So it's kind of a letdown spot for both of them.

Last year they played on Thursday Night as well, but with Carson Wentz. Game ended 12-7 with Chicago getting stopped at the 1 yard line as time ran out. I remember the game well because I had Washington last year. Chicago really should have won that game. I believe the first drive Chicago moved it down the field quickly and either got stopped on 4th and goal or they fumbled a TD out of the endzone. I forgot.

Both these teams scored 28+ points last week. Total was only 44.5, moving slightly higher to 45.5. I think it's an under game, despite Chicago having a swiss cheese defense. Supposedly the coach is coaching for his job tonight. I don't really factor that into the equation much. Also, conspiracy wise Justin Fields did blame "coaching" for his early season struggles. Maybe he secretly wants them to lose. Like this bum coach tryna tell me what to do, fine I'll do it and watch what happens.

As a Washington homer, I'm familiar with the team. It's rare that they give this many pts, and usually they don't cover the spread. Yes, Washington is perfectly capable of putting up points when they are behind. But they don't strike me as an offensive powerhouse that's gonna move up and down the field scoring TDs.

I think Washington wins, but it's close and I'll take the points in a low scoring game. I was gonna make it a lean, but I gave it enough thought that I'm willing to list it as a "play".


The weekend picks may come in late, and judging from my first look at the lines, I don't like much. It's gonna be a difficult card to put together, but that's for the weekend.

[recovering77]

Very late start to this post. To be honest, I kept putting it off because I didn't really like much this week. So if I will keep the "Plays" small if any, and there rest may be leans.

I'm writing this sleepy at 3 in the morning, so I apologize in advance.

Last week 2-2 Plays, I never got around to coming back and changing my leans but whatever. 1-3 leans. I definitely would have taken New Orleans off if I remembered.

To be honest, I'm probably not betting any of these, but I'm doing my weekly plays and leans.


Plays:

Pittsburgh +4.5 (L1) vs. Baltimore (W1). This line actually is kinda high with Pittsburgh being the home team here catching more than a field goal. But the last 4 matchups have all been close. I normally would pass on a game like this where the line seems kinda high, but Pittsburgh got absolutely spanked by the Texans last week, so maybe that line is justified. Baltimore handled the same Texans team that whoops Pittsburgh in week 1 25-9. The difference is that Baltimore doesn't have a vertical passing game like the Texans do. So while the defense may be able to shut Pittsburgh down, the offense isn't going to be going up and down the field like CJ Stroud did. Odell has been such a non-factor, people probably forgot he was even on the Ravens.

This line is probably higher because there are questions about Kenny PIckett's health. He's practiced all week and will play, but supposedly won't have full mobility. That makes me feel better about Pittsburgh, where the line is a bit high, against Baltimore who just beat the backup QB system last week (not doing good this year).

NY Giants (U2) / Miami (O2) OVER 47.5. Feels like a good spot to take the over here with Daniel Jones having another horrid performance in primetime. But Miami's defense is very bad. The only under for Miami so far is to New England who are challenged offensively. You could say the same thing about the Giants, but they have far better weapons with Saquon, Waller, and several young receivers. The Giants should be good for 17-24 pts in my opinion. Sparked by the run game of Saquon or Jones running.

Green Bay +2 (L1) at LV Raiders (L3). Don't get me started with the decision the Raiders made to throw the ball at the goal line last week. The Raiders and Jimmy G both are just really bad in primetime games, especially as a favorite. Raiders were getting blown out til Herbert got hurt and wore themselves out. Detroit was up 27-3 on Green Bay before they decided to play conservative. It wasn't a close game, but any team should be able to move on the Raiders.



Leans:

Tenn -2.5 (W1) at Indy (L1). The Colts showed a lot of heart last week getting down huge and managing to come back and tie it. Tennessee's defense is so hot and cold, they show up big sometimes and other times put up duds. I think last week had more to do with Burrow than the defense, since we've already seen Burrow get blown at by Cleveland in week 1. I'm really surprised that Tenn is giving road chalk in this situation. They haven't been good, and the Colts have been one of the more pleasant surprises this year offensively. Tennessee has also covered the last 5 meetings. Taylor will be back for the Colts for this game.

The Titans offense has really struggled since losing AJ Brown, and Derrick Henry is starting to show obvious signs of age at 29. I'm really basing this pick off the line basically. This Tenn team should not be giving points on the road in this situation. It should be a pickem, or Indy -1 or -2.


Minn +3.5 (W1) vs Kansas City (L1). Minnesota got a really flukey cover last week in a game where Cousins had one of those days. Minnesota should be able to hang in there with KC the entire game offensively. And as you saw on Sunday Night, KC's defense can have good games and bad games. And they let Zach Wilson move it on them for 3 quarters


Thoughts:

There are some games I had some thoughts on, but not enough to make a play


Denver -1.5 (P1, L3) vs. NY Jets (W1). I told myself I wouldn't keep chasing Denver again like I did last season. This year's Russ along with Payton is not much different than last season. The offense is noticeably better, but they still find ways to lose games. Denver came back from down 28-7 last week against the Bears. The Jets gave KC all they could handle, and the media is saying Zach Wilson may have turned over a new leaf because he was decent for one game.

Neither of these teams has shown me any consistency to either win, or put together good performances in consecutive weeks. If I were betting, I would bet the team that didn't cover the first half in this one. Seems like a game where one team will be up 1-3 pts at the half and blow it later on.

Cincinnati -3 (0-3-1 ATS) at Arizona (L1). Something is seriously wrong with Joe Burrow this season. He had a bad injury in training camp and missed all of preseason afterwards, and still in nursing that injury now. The line is fair. It's a tad bit lower than it would have been if Burrow was healthy. Maybe -4.5 or -5.5. But I just don't think it's a good bet to essentially gamble on which Burrow is showing up this week. After the egg Cincy laid last week, I would lean to them, but the game is a crapshoot.






That's it for now. Can't stay awake. I'll try to fix before kickoff tomorrow.




System Plays (1-0), Half System Plays (1-0):
Nothing this week.



2023
8-6-1 Plays, 4-9 Leans

2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays

2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays

2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans

2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).

2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans

2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans

2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs

[joepa66]

BOL today....good call on Da Bears!