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Tough loss on Tampa on Monday. Shoulda known Baker was already severely overachieving. I picked this card in like 2 mins on Monday, which is usually a bad thing and I usually miss something. But I'll try to give each pick some more thought before making it official.
2-1 Plays, 2-1 Leans last week.
Plays:
Pittsburgh -3 (W2) at Houston (W1). Tank Dell is a very popular fantasy football waiver pick after a couple of huge games. CJ Stroud as well. But I really think Houston puts up a dud this week against a real defense. Houston put up 37 on Jacksonville and 20 on Indy. I don't think they score more than 10 tomorrow. So Pittsburgh just needs to put up 14-17 to cover, and I hope they can. I thought about the under on this game, but if it's under, it should be Pittsburgh anyways.
Dallas -6 (L1) vs New England (W1). Dallas off the shocking to some loss to Arizona last week, and New England barely covering the low spread against the Jets who could only put up 10 points. Dallas seems to bounce back decently from big upset losses. I remember when they lost to Denver a couple of years ago, they came back with a 43-3 drubbing the next week. After losing to the Giants last year as a 10.5 pt favorite, they clobbered the Colts 54-19. I think the loss brought them back down to earth a little bit and they get back on track this week.
NY Jets +9.5 (L2) vs. Kansas City (W2). Dunno if I can hold my nose long enough to pick this one. If the Jets play like they've been playing, the camera will be on Taylor Swift the entire night. KC has covered 2 in a row, which is unusual for them during the regular season. I think the Jets defense has a chance to keep it close, and maybe KC is a bit distracted from all the Swift talk this week.
LV Raiders +6 (L2) at LA Chargers (W1). The Raiders will have a backup QB, but it's either going to be Brian Hoyer or Aidan O’Connell. I would consider it if it's O'Connell, but I think I've bet Hoyer before as the veteran backup QB with not much luck. Not a game I would want to bet if Hoyer is in.
I just watched some Aidan O'Connell highlights from the preseason, and he looked good. His release reminded me a bit of Tony Romo's. The problem is that the clips I saw he had a clean pocket with no pressure and plenty of time to deliver the ball. I'm sure the Chargers will be blitzing all day. But like I said, I will consider taking the Raiders if O'Connell is in. This will likely be a play in that case. Otherwise no play with Hoyer.
Aiden O'Connell is expected to start today, so this pick is a go.
Note: I forgot Gardnew Minshew started last week and won. So that's a win for the backup system.
LA Rams -1 (P1, W2) at Indy (W2). Richardson is back this week. I'm not really sure what to think of the Rams this season. The team is not that different than the one that won the super bowl. Just older, and missing Cooper Kupp. I think they're good for one more week as the expectations were pretty low coming in. Nacua appears to be healthy this week. Indy's defense is almost as bad as Minnesota's, so the Rams should be able to move the ball a bit, and the Rams defense has been pretty decent so far. Held Geno Smith to 13 pts and Joe Burrow to 19 pts.
Leans:
Carolina (O1) / Minnesota (U1) OVER 46.5. Bryce Young will be back at QB this week. I know it seems like points will be hard to come back in this one for Carolina, but I have a feeling about this one. I think Carolina puts up 20-21 points on possible a backdoor and forces Minnesota to keep scoring. The over with Minnesota's defense is usually a good play, except last week when they set it too high.
I'm thinking this one over again. Just because I think Carolina is going to surprise people offensively, doesn't mean the game is going over. Kirk Cousins has had good stats in all 3 games this season. That's not the norm for him. He has great games, but usually mediocre ones, and he has absolutely duds several times a year. This could be one of those weeks. Maybe the better play is Carolina here.
I'm changing this to Carolina Team Total over 20.5***
Miami +2.5 (W3, W6 dating back to last season) at Buffalo (W2). Normally I would pass on a game like this, but Miami seems to fit a system, so I'll throw it on the card. Buffalo is off 2 dominating performances, but Miami should have broken the NFL record for most points last week. Still like Mike McDaniel dating back to last season, so a 4-0 start wouldn't surprise me at all.
Washington +9.5 (L1) at Philly (W1). Treading carefully on this one as everyone remembers how Washington controlled the clock on Monday Night and gave Philly their first loss last season. Sam Howell had an awful, awful game last week. But Buffalo's defense can do that to you sometimes. Not really much else to say on this one. Just looking for a bounceback from Howell after what would be the biggest blowout of the season except Denver cook the cake last week.
New Orleans -3.5 (L1) vs Tampa Bay (L1). Jameis's second shot at Tampa Bay. I remember last year I bet Jameis in the second week of the season, but he was so concerned about turning the ball over, he wasted a masterful performance by the defense that held Brady in check basically the entire game until the very end. It's the backup QB system, but again with a known veteran so it doesnt fit it exactly. Andy Dalton put up a fight, but couldn't cover last week.
System Plays (1-0), Half System Plays (1-0):
Nothing this week.
2023
6-4-1 Plays, 3-6 Leans
2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
2-1 Plays, 2-1 Leans last week.
Plays:
Pittsburgh -3 (W2) at Houston (W1). Tank Dell is a very popular fantasy football waiver pick after a couple of huge games. CJ Stroud as well. But I really think Houston puts up a dud this week against a real defense. Houston put up 37 on Jacksonville and 20 on Indy. I don't think they score more than 10 tomorrow. So Pittsburgh just needs to put up 14-17 to cover, and I hope they can. I thought about the under on this game, but if it's under, it should be Pittsburgh anyways.
Dallas -6 (L1) vs New England (W1). Dallas off the shocking to some loss to Arizona last week, and New England barely covering the low spread against the Jets who could only put up 10 points. Dallas seems to bounce back decently from big upset losses. I remember when they lost to Denver a couple of years ago, they came back with a 43-3 drubbing the next week. After losing to the Giants last year as a 10.5 pt favorite, they clobbered the Colts 54-19. I think the loss brought them back down to earth a little bit and they get back on track this week.
NY Jets +9.5 (L2) vs. Kansas City (W2). Dunno if I can hold my nose long enough to pick this one. If the Jets play like they've been playing, the camera will be on Taylor Swift the entire night. KC has covered 2 in a row, which is unusual for them during the regular season. I think the Jets defense has a chance to keep it close, and maybe KC is a bit distracted from all the Swift talk this week.
LV Raiders +6 (L2) at LA Chargers (W1). The Raiders will have a backup QB, but it's either going to be Brian Hoyer or Aidan O’Connell. I would consider it if it's O'Connell, but I think I've bet Hoyer before as the veteran backup QB with not much luck. Not a game I would want to bet if Hoyer is in.
I just watched some Aidan O'Connell highlights from the preseason, and he looked good. His release reminded me a bit of Tony Romo's. The problem is that the clips I saw he had a clean pocket with no pressure and plenty of time to deliver the ball. I'm sure the Chargers will be blitzing all day. But like I said, I will consider taking the Raiders if O'Connell is in. This will likely be a play in that case. Otherwise no play with Hoyer.
Aiden O'Connell is expected to start today, so this pick is a go.
Note: I forgot Gardnew Minshew started last week and won. So that's a win for the backup system.
LA Rams -1 (P1, W2) at Indy (W2). Richardson is back this week. I'm not really sure what to think of the Rams this season. The team is not that different than the one that won the super bowl. Just older, and missing Cooper Kupp. I think they're good for one more week as the expectations were pretty low coming in. Nacua appears to be healthy this week. Indy's defense is almost as bad as Minnesota's, so the Rams should be able to move the ball a bit, and the Rams defense has been pretty decent so far. Held Geno Smith to 13 pts and Joe Burrow to 19 pts.
Leans:
Carolina (O1) / Minnesota (U1) OVER 46.5. Bryce Young will be back at QB this week. I know it seems like points will be hard to come back in this one for Carolina, but I have a feeling about this one. I think Carolina puts up 20-21 points on possible a backdoor and forces Minnesota to keep scoring. The over with Minnesota's defense is usually a good play, except last week when they set it too high.
I'm thinking this one over again. Just because I think Carolina is going to surprise people offensively, doesn't mean the game is going over. Kirk Cousins has had good stats in all 3 games this season. That's not the norm for him. He has great games, but usually mediocre ones, and he has absolutely duds several times a year. This could be one of those weeks. Maybe the better play is Carolina here.
I'm changing this to Carolina Team Total over 20.5***
Miami +2.5 (W3, W6 dating back to last season) at Buffalo (W2). Normally I would pass on a game like this, but Miami seems to fit a system, so I'll throw it on the card. Buffalo is off 2 dominating performances, but Miami should have broken the NFL record for most points last week. Still like Mike McDaniel dating back to last season, so a 4-0 start wouldn't surprise me at all.
Washington +9.5 (L1) at Philly (W1). Treading carefully on this one as everyone remembers how Washington controlled the clock on Monday Night and gave Philly their first loss last season. Sam Howell had an awful, awful game last week. But Buffalo's defense can do that to you sometimes. Not really much else to say on this one. Just looking for a bounceback from Howell after what would be the biggest blowout of the season except Denver cook the cake last week.
New Orleans -3.5 (L1) vs Tampa Bay (L1). Jameis's second shot at Tampa Bay. I remember last year I bet Jameis in the second week of the season, but he was so concerned about turning the ball over, he wasted a masterful performance by the defense that held Brady in check basically the entire game until the very end. It's the backup QB system, but again with a known veteran so it doesnt fit it exactly. Andy Dalton put up a fight, but couldn't cover last week.
System Plays (1-0), Half System Plays (1-0):
Nothing this week.
2023
6-4-1 Plays, 3-6 Leans
2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
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