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Tough loss last week with the officials overturning the first down on that lateral. in the New England game When it's that close, you gotta let it stand and keep the game exciting. It's what's best for business!
Anyways, 3-1-1 plays last week. 0-4 Leans. Pretty much every play where I said "normally I would take the other team" lost. I also lost on the hook with Atlanta, who are the kings of "spreads of less than 3 matter."
I really haven't had much of a chance to look into the games yet, but I'm going to write the intro and outro ahead of time. Sorry if there won't be much to start with.
If I remember correctly, I think the Contenders and Pretenders start to separate themselves around Week 4 or 5. So I think I can still go with "Pretenders" that are early season surprises.
Plays:
Tampa Bay +4.5 (W2) vs. Philly (Push, L1). Last time these two teams played meaningfully was on a Thursday night where Tampa kicked their but, but Hurts got a couple of backdoor TDs and covered by the hook. Tampa is another team I'm looking to back one more time, as I'm sure nobody is expecting Baker Mayfield to start the season 3-0. I remember the loser of the SB typically did not do well the next season, but that hasn't been the case in recent years. As I mentioned before, Philly likes to build up a big lead then sit on it. Not sure if Baker can execute with philly leaving the backdoor completely open. Baker was solid enough the first couple of weeks, but that was Minny and Chicago's defenses, who rank near the bottom. Also, Tampa is historically good against the run. Sure it was Tom Brady who beat him the last times, but Tampa Bay's defense being able to stop the run flusters Hurts who's game is centered around being a running QB.
Arizona +13 (W2) vs. Dallas (W2). Apparently there is some system that likes this spot with two absolute blowouts from Dallas. Josh Dobbs has done a great job of covering this year. I would just like to know what happened in the second half last week. Arizona does play Dallas pretty well usually though. I'll probably throw this one in as a play since it's a stronger system (separate from my system plays).
I'm reaching for reasons to take this one. But I see it as the Primetime 4 O'Clock game. And when the NFL made the schedule, they knew that Kyler Murray had torn his ACL and it's possible that he wouldn't be ready by now. Does the NFL know something?
Houston +7.5 (L2) at Jacksonville (L1). Houston impressed me last week how they continued to move the ball over and over again after getting down 14-0. CJ Stroud is really making these receivers look pretty good. Jacksonville is one of those teams that came into the season with a ton of hype. All they've done is get a lucky cover against Indy, and crap the bed offensively against a KC defense that's not any good. Not ready to pull the trigger just yet, but it's on the radar.
Leans:
Green Bay +1 (W2) vs. New Orleans (W2). No analysis on this one. I just saw that the line moved from New Orleans +1 to New Orleans -1. That's what I was looking for to take Minnesota in that game, and it hasn't come. So Green Bay is a lean just off line movement. I will say though, that I've been totally wrong about Jordan Love. He's really stepped up, and I think he's gonna be the QB there for several years, and a pretty decent one too.
Indy +8.5 (W1) at Baltimore (W2). Only thing that concerns me is that Minshew is playing, and many will consider him an upgrade over Richardson. He looked good last week, but he's very hot and cold as a QB. Baltimore getting it done, but it hasn't been pretty.
Carolina +5 (Push, L1) at Seattle (W1). Andy Dalton keeps resurfacing as a backup in now his third team. This is not your typical backup QB system as it's a known veteran who started for many seasons during his career. This would mainly be a fade on Geno Smith. Carolina might not have much on the offensive end, but their defense has been good for several years now. Should be able to fluster Geno a bit.
No Plays:
Minnesota -1 (Push, L1) vs. LA Chargers (L2). This is one of the games of the week with the loser of this game being 0-3 and it's really going to be difficult to make the playoffs. Minnesota was 13-4 last season, while the Chargers were 10-7. I haven't made my official pick yet on this one. Two teams with really high hopes this season, with powerful offenses and defenses that severely let them down.
I have a bad history when betting against the Chargers as small underdogs. I remember last year I took the Browns -1 and they were up 14-0, and the Chargers came back and beat them. I don't really look at the angle of who needs the game more, but the Chargers do. In a division with KC, they're gonna be fighting for a wild card. Even at 0-3, Minnesota's division is still wide open with unproven Green Bay, overhyped Detroit, and the crappy Bears.
I always say Minnesota will be right there for a playoff spot every year. Didn't have to mention it last year because they ran away with the division. But I'm looking at their schedule, and it's rough. Panthers, Chiefs, Bears, Niners, Packers, Falcons. Chargers schedule isn't much better though. Raiders, Cowboys, Chiefs, Bears, Jets, Lions.
I want to see the line movement on this game before I make an official pick. It would actually like Minnesota if it goes to Chargers -1.
Matchup wise, Minnesota's joke of a defense should let the Chargers hang around. And without Cook, they won't be able to attack the Chargers run defense like other teams.
Washington +6.5 (W1) vs. Buffalo (W1). This is a soft lean because I wouldn't typically bet Washington in this spot. As a Washington Homer, I know that they usually don't play very well vs. serious super bowl contenders. Also, not a good spot to take them getting almost a TD at home after a rollercoaster come from behind win last week from 21-3, to the hail mary, to the PI in the endzone saving the game. Buffalo rolled last week. Not much else to say about them. Washington is 2-0 for the first time in about 10 years. I do like this Howell kid a lot though. He's got issues with ball security, but he's making big time throws that you don't see from 5th round picks in their 3rd career start. Not ready to pull the trigger yet though, as I feel like the line is a tad bit high. It should be -4.5 probably, or even 3.5 if Vegas really believes in Washington. I forget if Buffalo gets the typical inflation that the top team in the league gets.
This is a lean for now, and possibly moving to a no play. I need to stop overlooking the letdown spots, and lookahead spots. Those are capping basics. Washington is probably worn out from that emotional rollercoaster last week. Can't play them in this spot.
Chicago +12.5 (L2) at KC (W1). The Bears are a dumpster fire, especially with Fields blaming the coach. But KC is good fade when giving more than 3, and they covered last week, so it's worth a look. As a follow on to last week, I expect the Bears to be in the 4-6 win range. There's definitely some winnable games coming up on the schedule. So I'm not gonna auto fade them like I've been doing the first couple of weeks. After 2 pathetic performances, I think the books give them less of the benefit of the doubt now with the spreads.
This won't be the week I pick the Bears. I also think with two +12.5 point dogs at 4 PM, that statistically one will lose and one will win. And I like the Cardinals.
TBD:
Cincy -2.5 (L2) vs. LA Rams (W2). I would say the Bengals are the biggest disappointment of the season so far. I'm looking into this one to see if Joe Burrow plays. The line is telling me there's genuine concern here. I'd be willing to roll with a backup though. The no name backup QBs on Monday night haven't done too well lately, but I have a feeling this time.
LA Raiders -2.5 (L1) vs. Pittsburgh (W1). Small nod to the Raiders coming off the blowout loss against the Steelers who got a flukey big win on Monday night. Pittsburgh's offense should have a bit more success against the Raiders this week than the prior two weeks though.
If I play these I'll finalize on Monday.
Sorry guys. Late getting back to this this week. Busy College FB Saturday. I'll try and finish on time tomorrow but it probably won't be until around kickoff.
System Plays (1-0), Half System Plays (1-0):
Nothing this week. Great start though. The Half System Plays have won 4 in a row dating back to last season.
2023
4-3-1 Plays, 1-5 Leans.
2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
Anyways, 3-1-1 plays last week. 0-4 Leans. Pretty much every play where I said "normally I would take the other team" lost. I also lost on the hook with Atlanta, who are the kings of "spreads of less than 3 matter."
I really haven't had much of a chance to look into the games yet, but I'm going to write the intro and outro ahead of time. Sorry if there won't be much to start with.
If I remember correctly, I think the Contenders and Pretenders start to separate themselves around Week 4 or 5. So I think I can still go with "Pretenders" that are early season surprises.
Plays:
Tampa Bay +4.5 (W2) vs. Philly (Push, L1). Last time these two teams played meaningfully was on a Thursday night where Tampa kicked their but, but Hurts got a couple of backdoor TDs and covered by the hook. Tampa is another team I'm looking to back one more time, as I'm sure nobody is expecting Baker Mayfield to start the season 3-0. I remember the loser of the SB typically did not do well the next season, but that hasn't been the case in recent years. As I mentioned before, Philly likes to build up a big lead then sit on it. Not sure if Baker can execute with philly leaving the backdoor completely open. Baker was solid enough the first couple of weeks, but that was Minny and Chicago's defenses, who rank near the bottom. Also, Tampa is historically good against the run. Sure it was Tom Brady who beat him the last times, but Tampa Bay's defense being able to stop the run flusters Hurts who's game is centered around being a running QB.
Arizona +13 (W2) vs. Dallas (W2). Apparently there is some system that likes this spot with two absolute blowouts from Dallas. Josh Dobbs has done a great job of covering this year. I would just like to know what happened in the second half last week. Arizona does play Dallas pretty well usually though. I'll probably throw this one in as a play since it's a stronger system (separate from my system plays).
I'm reaching for reasons to take this one. But I see it as the Primetime 4 O'Clock game. And when the NFL made the schedule, they knew that Kyler Murray had torn his ACL and it's possible that he wouldn't be ready by now. Does the NFL know something?
Houston +7.5 (L2) at Jacksonville (L1). Houston impressed me last week how they continued to move the ball over and over again after getting down 14-0. CJ Stroud is really making these receivers look pretty good. Jacksonville is one of those teams that came into the season with a ton of hype. All they've done is get a lucky cover against Indy, and crap the bed offensively against a KC defense that's not any good. Not ready to pull the trigger just yet, but it's on the radar.
Leans:
Green Bay +1 (W2) vs. New Orleans (W2). No analysis on this one. I just saw that the line moved from New Orleans +1 to New Orleans -1. That's what I was looking for to take Minnesota in that game, and it hasn't come. So Green Bay is a lean just off line movement. I will say though, that I've been totally wrong about Jordan Love. He's really stepped up, and I think he's gonna be the QB there for several years, and a pretty decent one too.
Indy +8.5 (W1) at Baltimore (W2). Only thing that concerns me is that Minshew is playing, and many will consider him an upgrade over Richardson. He looked good last week, but he's very hot and cold as a QB. Baltimore getting it done, but it hasn't been pretty.
Carolina +5 (Push, L1) at Seattle (W1). Andy Dalton keeps resurfacing as a backup in now his third team. This is not your typical backup QB system as it's a known veteran who started for many seasons during his career. This would mainly be a fade on Geno Smith. Carolina might not have much on the offensive end, but their defense has been good for several years now. Should be able to fluster Geno a bit.
No Plays:
Minnesota -1 (Push, L1) vs. LA Chargers (L2). This is one of the games of the week with the loser of this game being 0-3 and it's really going to be difficult to make the playoffs. Minnesota was 13-4 last season, while the Chargers were 10-7. I haven't made my official pick yet on this one. Two teams with really high hopes this season, with powerful offenses and defenses that severely let them down.
I have a bad history when betting against the Chargers as small underdogs. I remember last year I took the Browns -1 and they were up 14-0, and the Chargers came back and beat them. I don't really look at the angle of who needs the game more, but the Chargers do. In a division with KC, they're gonna be fighting for a wild card. Even at 0-3, Minnesota's division is still wide open with unproven Green Bay, overhyped Detroit, and the crappy Bears.
I always say Minnesota will be right there for a playoff spot every year. Didn't have to mention it last year because they ran away with the division. But I'm looking at their schedule, and it's rough. Panthers, Chiefs, Bears, Niners, Packers, Falcons. Chargers schedule isn't much better though. Raiders, Cowboys, Chiefs, Bears, Jets, Lions.
I want to see the line movement on this game before I make an official pick. It would actually like Minnesota if it goes to Chargers -1.
Matchup wise, Minnesota's joke of a defense should let the Chargers hang around. And without Cook, they won't be able to attack the Chargers run defense like other teams.
Washington +6.5 (W1) vs. Buffalo (W1). This is a soft lean because I wouldn't typically bet Washington in this spot. As a Washington Homer, I know that they usually don't play very well vs. serious super bowl contenders. Also, not a good spot to take them getting almost a TD at home after a rollercoaster come from behind win last week from 21-3, to the hail mary, to the PI in the endzone saving the game. Buffalo rolled last week. Not much else to say about them. Washington is 2-0 for the first time in about 10 years. I do like this Howell kid a lot though. He's got issues with ball security, but he's making big time throws that you don't see from 5th round picks in their 3rd career start. Not ready to pull the trigger yet though, as I feel like the line is a tad bit high. It should be -4.5 probably, or even 3.5 if Vegas really believes in Washington. I forget if Buffalo gets the typical inflation that the top team in the league gets.
This is a lean for now, and possibly moving to a no play. I need to stop overlooking the letdown spots, and lookahead spots. Those are capping basics. Washington is probably worn out from that emotional rollercoaster last week. Can't play them in this spot.
Chicago +12.5 (L2) at KC (W1). The Bears are a dumpster fire, especially with Fields blaming the coach. But KC is good fade when giving more than 3, and they covered last week, so it's worth a look. As a follow on to last week, I expect the Bears to be in the 4-6 win range. There's definitely some winnable games coming up on the schedule. So I'm not gonna auto fade them like I've been doing the first couple of weeks. After 2 pathetic performances, I think the books give them less of the benefit of the doubt now with the spreads.
This won't be the week I pick the Bears. I also think with two +12.5 point dogs at 4 PM, that statistically one will lose and one will win. And I like the Cardinals.
TBD:
Cincy -2.5 (L2) vs. LA Rams (W2). I would say the Bengals are the biggest disappointment of the season so far. I'm looking into this one to see if Joe Burrow plays. The line is telling me there's genuine concern here. I'd be willing to roll with a backup though. The no name backup QBs on Monday night haven't done too well lately, but I have a feeling this time.
LA Raiders -2.5 (L1) vs. Pittsburgh (W1). Small nod to the Raiders coming off the blowout loss against the Steelers who got a flukey big win on Monday night. Pittsburgh's offense should have a bit more success against the Raiders this week than the prior two weeks though.
If I play these I'll finalize on Monday.
Sorry guys. Late getting back to this this week. Busy College FB Saturday. I'll try and finish on time tomorrow but it probably won't be until around kickoff.
System Plays (1-0), Half System Plays (1-0):
Nothing this week. Great start though. The Half System Plays have won 4 in a row dating back to last season.
2023
4-3-1 Plays, 1-5 Leans.
2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
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