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Back for another year of NFL action. Glad to have a quiet forum where I can get my notes down and refer back to everything. A bit busy this weekend, so I wanted to get down my thoughts in case I run out of time. This is the most difficult week of the year, as I have no data to look back on, so I'm really just going off preseason expectations. Also, many of the lines are deflated because the books have to give every team the benefit of the doubt until they play some real games.
I've got one play so far, and the rest are leans. At least one of the leans will become a play.
Plays:
Houston +9.5 (0-0) at Baltimore (0-0) - I see this has moved off the key 10 number already that I saw earlier this week. Lamar got his bag this offseason. Didn't make much sense to me how they drew it out for so long if they were gonna give him $51M a year anyways. The big acquisition for Baltimore was overpaying an aging, and injured Odell. Well Odell isn't even playing this week. Houston has Dameon Pierce and a bunch of young WRs, plus a pretty raw rookie QB in CJ Stroud.
Just taking a shot in the dark on this one. The Texans are a very difficult team to bet on, but they seem to do okay in week 1. Last year they drew a tie and covered against Indy after winning for basically the entire game. The year before that they beat Jacksonville. Year before that they lost SU and ATS at KC (with Watson), and the year before that they covered against the Saints (with Watson). So they've covered the last two years with the worst team in the league. I'll take a shot that they can do it again.
Green Bay +1.5 (0-0) at Chicago (0-0). I really don't understand all this hype around Chicago. Green Bay could be missing their top 2 WRs (Watson is already out), but they're still favored on the road against this team. Not a fan of Jordan Love, but I don't understand why everyone is so high on Justin Fields this season. He's been horrible his whole career. He just had 1 good month of running the ball as a QB. They still didn't win games, and they still ended up with the #1 overall pick in the draft. Mark my words, they'll be sorry they didn't take a QB with that pick.
I like Green Bay to win this game, and Chicago to have another 5-12 type season at best.
Cincy / Cleveland Over 46.5. Looking into this game a bit more. 47.5 isn't a high total in today's NFL, but it does seem a bit high considering how poorly Watson played last season when he had the whole year to learn the playbook. He still had major rust after he had several games under his belt. Feels like the total should be like 43.5 or 44.5, especially in a division rivalry game. And Burrow missed all of preseason, so he's going to be pretty rusty too.
Leans:
Denver -3.5 (0-0) vs. LV Raiders (0-0). I have the utmost respect for Sean Payton. I think he's one of the best coaches in the league, so I'm looking at Denver giving the hook already. I'm going to try and not chase Denver this season if they're not any good. It's possible that Russell Wilson Inc. is completely washed up and there's no fixing him. This is just a lean for now. The pick is more about Denver giving the hook already than how I feel about Jimmy Garroppolo.
Miami / LA Chargers OVER 51. They played last year with a big total and it went under by more than 2 TDs. Miami's defense was horrid last season, and their big pickup was Jalen Ramsey who is out til December. Herbert had an off year last year. I think injuring his ribs very early in the season threw him off a bit. He's a candidate for a big turnaround this season.
No Plays:
LA Rams +5 (0-0) at Seattle (0-0). I think Seattle had a fluke year last season, and I'm looking for big regression from Geno Smith this year. However, I can't pull the trigger on the Rams, who will likely be missing Cooper Kupp, because I think this could be the last season for Matt Stafford. He really has no reason to keep going after this season. His wife says he doesn't know how to fit in with his younger teammates. Aaron Donald is one step out the door, probably just collecting a paycheck this season. And The Rams are already rebuilding. Nothing here for Stafford who's body began to break down last season. So I'm not too high on either team this season, but the line seems a tad bit too high for the Rams who have historically played Seattle pretty well.
SNF
Dallas -3 (0-0) at NY Giants (0-0). For the side, I'm thinking Dallas for now. Line dropped to 3. They played SNF last year, and the Giants were a 1 pt home favorite with Cooper Rush in for Dallas. Sure Dak is in now, but the Giants had a pretty incredible season last year, especially ATS. There has to be some reversion to the mean eventually.
Dallas played SNF opening night last year too, but the Tampa Bay bucs gave them a thrashing. And we know how bad the Bucs ended up being. Brady ended up retiring at the end of the season, as I predicted. Go back and check if you don't believe me. Week 1 2022 season post.
2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
I've got one play so far, and the rest are leans. At least one of the leans will become a play.
Plays:
Houston +9.5 (0-0) at Baltimore (0-0) - I see this has moved off the key 10 number already that I saw earlier this week. Lamar got his bag this offseason. Didn't make much sense to me how they drew it out for so long if they were gonna give him $51M a year anyways. The big acquisition for Baltimore was overpaying an aging, and injured Odell. Well Odell isn't even playing this week. Houston has Dameon Pierce and a bunch of young WRs, plus a pretty raw rookie QB in CJ Stroud.
Just taking a shot in the dark on this one. The Texans are a very difficult team to bet on, but they seem to do okay in week 1. Last year they drew a tie and covered against Indy after winning for basically the entire game. The year before that they beat Jacksonville. Year before that they lost SU and ATS at KC (with Watson), and the year before that they covered against the Saints (with Watson). So they've covered the last two years with the worst team in the league. I'll take a shot that they can do it again.
Green Bay +1.5 (0-0) at Chicago (0-0). I really don't understand all this hype around Chicago. Green Bay could be missing their top 2 WRs (Watson is already out), but they're still favored on the road against this team. Not a fan of Jordan Love, but I don't understand why everyone is so high on Justin Fields this season. He's been horrible his whole career. He just had 1 good month of running the ball as a QB. They still didn't win games, and they still ended up with the #1 overall pick in the draft. Mark my words, they'll be sorry they didn't take a QB with that pick.
I like Green Bay to win this game, and Chicago to have another 5-12 type season at best.
Cincy / Cleveland Over 46.5. Looking into this game a bit more. 47.5 isn't a high total in today's NFL, but it does seem a bit high considering how poorly Watson played last season when he had the whole year to learn the playbook. He still had major rust after he had several games under his belt. Feels like the total should be like 43.5 or 44.5, especially in a division rivalry game. And Burrow missed all of preseason, so he's going to be pretty rusty too.
Leans:
Denver -3.5 (0-0) vs. LV Raiders (0-0). I have the utmost respect for Sean Payton. I think he's one of the best coaches in the league, so I'm looking at Denver giving the hook already. I'm going to try and not chase Denver this season if they're not any good. It's possible that Russell Wilson Inc. is completely washed up and there's no fixing him. This is just a lean for now. The pick is more about Denver giving the hook already than how I feel about Jimmy Garroppolo.
Miami / LA Chargers OVER 51. They played last year with a big total and it went under by more than 2 TDs. Miami's defense was horrid last season, and their big pickup was Jalen Ramsey who is out til December. Herbert had an off year last year. I think injuring his ribs very early in the season threw him off a bit. He's a candidate for a big turnaround this season.
No Plays:
LA Rams +5 (0-0) at Seattle (0-0). I think Seattle had a fluke year last season, and I'm looking for big regression from Geno Smith this year. However, I can't pull the trigger on the Rams, who will likely be missing Cooper Kupp, because I think this could be the last season for Matt Stafford. He really has no reason to keep going after this season. His wife says he doesn't know how to fit in with his younger teammates. Aaron Donald is one step out the door, probably just collecting a paycheck this season. And The Rams are already rebuilding. Nothing here for Stafford who's body began to break down last season. So I'm not too high on either team this season, but the line seems a tad bit too high for the Rams who have historically played Seattle pretty well.
SNF
Dallas -3 (0-0) at NY Giants (0-0). For the side, I'm thinking Dallas for now. Line dropped to 3. They played SNF last year, and the Giants were a 1 pt home favorite with Cooper Rush in for Dallas. Sure Dak is in now, but the Giants had a pretty incredible season last year, especially ATS. There has to be some reversion to the mean eventually.
Dallas played SNF opening night last year too, but the Tampa Bay bucs gave them a thrashing. And we know how bad the Bucs ended up being. Brady ended up retiring at the end of the season, as I predicted. Go back and check if you don't believe me. Week 1 2022 season post.
2022 Playoffs
8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
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