Week 5 Discussion

[Daws1089]

Hey guys,

Pretty dead in here this week. I have some down time today so better late than never for some discussion

Colts -1. Interesting line here. You can get Chiefs +3 on bodog, but -1 most other places for the colts. It could be a lot to ask of the Cheifs to win 2 straight games, but I'm not really confortable backing Indy in this one. Painter did look better than Collins, but was still just 13/30 passing. Take away those 2 really long TDs to Garcon and the offense did nothing. The Colts played that deep Cover 2 all game leaving the MLB out to dry every play it seemed like with underneath 8 yard completions. Colts experiencing a few injuries themselves. Not a ton of confidence in Indy here, but also hard for me to come up with many reasons to play KC. Really surprised at how many are backing Indy this week though is my main point.

NYG -9.5

Line opened at -11.5... I just see the NYG as being a little overvalued this week. That is a lot of points to cover considering Tuck and Jacobs will be out for sure. Manningham is back, but not huge difference maker as Cruz filled in nicely. Seattle is coming east which is a concern, but if I can get +10 I think I might play SEA.

Jax-1

Bengals off a nice win against BUFF, but now on the road. You can get a couple 2's and a 3 out there if you are looking to back CIN. I don't know what to make of this. Most of the time I would see CIN as a dog to the lowly Jags and think Jags win, but again its hard for me to back the Jags with not much firepower against CIN who's defense is decent. I could see an under here.

BUFF +2

Bills are on everyone's radar and it would appear they would be a great play this week off a road loss returning home catching points to the Eagles who everyone sees as a disappointment. They have been a public darling for the first 4 games and I think this is the point where people jump off of the Eagles only to be burned. Watkins making his first start at guard after not even dressing for the first few games, Jason Peters OUT, Trent Cole OUT. Eagles off a horrible loss, make that two horrible losses. Bills offense should have a good amount of success on sunday, but why are the eagles favored? They have played horribly, buffalo has played very well aside from last week. They didn't even play badly last week, but did lose. This could easily be a BUFF -3 line so why isn't it? I would tread lightly for anyone looking to back BUFF on the spread.

Pats -9

I have been thinking blowout of epic proportions for a week and a half now by NE after the way they went out against NYJ in the playoffs last yr. Line opened at -10 though, so why the quick drop to -9. I really don't see the Jets staying within a TD, but maybe I'm wrong. I had this game pegged as a 40-14 type NE win, but does anyone like the Jets here. Can anyone present a decent argument to back them in this situation? I probably sound so square saying Pats blow them out.

NO -6.5

Opened at -7. Pick the winner, Saints win right? Looks to easy to me. Saints didn't play all that well last week and are now on the road again. I really do think CAR has a shot here. I like the pts and think they got a chance at a W. Saints may have a field day running the ball though as CAR has been downright awful upfront. Anyone else have a take on this game.

I'll be back tomorrow and hopefully sunday morning with more thoughts.

[Underdog88]

been busy myself but here are some thoughts to a couple


KC/Indy- I think the situation is much different for Painter here than it was last week @ TB. Caldwell won't come out and say it, but I think this is Painter's job to lose now. IMO Painter will play more confident at home. Kc only has Bowe to heave it up to, at least the Colts have targets in the passing game. I think Indy's D steps it up at home and they win.

NYG- looks like a game where the Hawks get blown out but if I played NYG they would lose su. I have no clue with these NFC East games anymore, prob half my losses come from that division.


Jets/Patriots- I think this line is a complete overreaction to the Pats beating Oakland/Jets getting blown out vs Balty (and b2b losses). I think last week was a great spot to bet the Patriots, but this week I don't see a reason to lay 10 pts in the division vs a team with the better defense. I don't buy the revenge angle from last year, simply because in this matchup there is plenty of motivation on both sides. Sanchez can be utterly terrible at times, but the NE defense is going to have trouble with the Jets wr & Keller. I think this is a 1 possession game either way, I think the smashmouth Jets show up this game.....

[DukiesBaby]

I like the jets to cover the spread this week and possibly win this game outright... the patriots throw the football, all the teams beating the jets ran the football all over them, there are 5 teams in the nfl that match up very well vs patriots, Jets Eagles Ravens Steelers Texans
all 5 of these teams have great pass defense or pass defense rush, also these teams have strong balanced offenses run or throw the football, with pats defense being so bad these teams only really have to stall brady 2 times to win this game, jets and eagles have the secondary to cover all these wideouts... too many points here, i wont play jets money line because they are on the road but i will be taking the + points here, if jets run the football and play time of possession vs pats and keep this game out of tom brady rhythm than i think they can take this down to a last possesion game...

i also like the under because of the fact if jets play a time of possesion game with long drives...




i like seahawks this week at the points too, giants havent played a good defense i think all year, its not smart to take teams traveling across country, but as seahawk showed me life last week, they look like a young college squad playing for pride, and that could be dangerous for giants, giants are injured all over, only way seahawks (imo) get blown out in this game is if tvares jackson turns the ball over like a moron with terrible decisions...



I like the broncos to upset the chargers this week, this is my upset pick of the week, chargers had problems with chiefs and dolphins back to back weeks, playing at home too, denver coming off a loss or two, going back home to play rival san diego, i see 24-20 denver win with 4th quarter td putting them up by 4 and stoping a late charger ralley....



i like steelers colts


not sure what to say about the vikings cardinals game.. maybe just throw darts at a wall blind folded, or ask joe pa to ask the oven mitt his opinion....



not to sure about backing my eagles this week, they look terrible right now, bills offense runs through fred jackson, well eagles struggle with running backs, mostly because of inexperience linebackers, eagles win this game if they get a lead early and cause a turn over or 2 and take jackson out of the game and put the game on the qbs arm... but if the eagles fall behind early or lead by 7 or less, than i think bills are gonna come away with this one... play to your strengths, eagles are certainly not doing that right now... i think they should let the 3 corners they got live on an island and play 1v1 and let the safteys play the run game only instead of this zone.. especially vs the bills, they dont have any andre johnson / megatrons on their team.. attack the run game and let those awesome corners earn their keep :beerbang:

[Daws1089]

im beginning to agree with you guys on the jets. Everyone seems to be down on the jets at this point. They can still cause problems on defense. If shonn greene can get going or even LT I think the jets will cover. One of these weeks were going to see the pats defense exposed big time. Maybe it's this week.

[recovering77]

Really like the discussion the goes on in the forums here. A little bit of info shared goes a long way when some would have missed some good points. I'll just leave a couple of comments on your comments.

Colts/Chiefs: I believe 4 games into the season, we can forget about lines reflecting that KC was a division champion last year. After those first couple of weeks, I can't imagine anyone feelings confident about the chiefs for a long time. Painter looking decent in the spotlight probably help with this line. Really hard to pick a side either way. Aren't these the two primary teams in the suck for luck sweepstakes? I just realized that. Prob lean KC if I had to.

NYG/SEA: Seattle coming off 2 b2b covers with public heavily on the other side. One would think that some would believe a little bit on the hawks, but looks like majority will ride NYG. It probably has a lot to do with the blowout the Giants handed them in seattle last year. Prob lean NYG here though.

JAX/CIN: Dalton has been better than advertised, but mainly has to do with a decent run game and more importantly AJ Green. Gresham is no pushover either. Gabbert hasn't been as lucky. Jackonsville has ****ed me hard every week since beating Tenn week 1. One can continue chasing a bad team, but I'm not sure i can pull the trigger here. Lean Jax, but scared.

NYJ/NE: Everything about this game is probably already known. You mention the line drop from -10 to 9.5. I think I attribute this to Mangold practicing this week. I don't think he practices so early unless he plays. Mangold is such a big part of that offense (which was made blatantly apparent against the Ravens) that I think the line move had a lot to do with him.

NO/CAR: Really liking Carolina in this spot. I'm really shocked that Cam Newton is succeeding so much in the NFL. You figured he would run the ball and learn on the fly, but man the rebirth of Steve Smith came outta nowhere. New Orleans covered as a VERY HEAVY public favorite last week at Jacksonville. You couldn't tell by the final score, but Brees struggled somewhat, hence why you see some many FGs on the scoreboard as opposed to TDs. Carolina has covered like 3 games in a row, so the line may be justified, but this may be their undervalued year.

There is always a team that will never cover no matter how many points they get and no matter how heavy the public is on them. Carolina was this team last year. Perhaps vegas is still undervaluing them slightly because of this. This years team that never covers is starting to feel like Jacksonville.

I only mentioned the games that you did. Sorry if I wrote too much. I know it's hard to find info buried in a lot of commentary.

[recovering77]

Oops I forgot 1, and will add to the jets/pats game since that appears to be the game everyone is talking about.

You said you were surprised to see Philly giving points here? I'm shocked they're not giving in the 4.5 to 5 range. Sure Buffalo has looked okay this year, but they lost to Cincy last week, and their defense is nowhere near respectable yet.

Did you say you wondered how Buffalo isn't favored? That would never happen against what the public has labeled the "dream team". It's like the Miami Heat being underdog vs. a team like Atlanta (who is actually a pretty decent team). It just won't happen.

Sure Philly has been blasted all week, but with a team that has Vick, Mccoy, Jackson, Maclin, Nnamdi, Rodgers-Cromartie, etc. they really do have the dream team. Just like the Miami heat, they start slow getting the chemistry together, but I expect Philly to run off a string of 5-8 wins a row soon, probably feasting on lower tier teams which buffalo still is for now. I lean Philly, but likely won't play. Does Buffalo even have anyone to rush Vick?

New England gets inflated even more this week cuz they have returning players. Haynesworth, Chung, and Hernandez returning makes this team even stronger. New England even has a run game now with Ridley breaking out last week.

Glad the Jets are finally coming down to earth. They were so overrated last year it wasn't even funny. They have no run game, a questionable QB, and overrated wide receivers. Plaxico Burress hasn't done anything this year if you take out the one TD vs. Dallas's crappy secondary, and Santonio Holmes has never been an elite receiver. Mike Wallace is twice the receiver he is.