Super Bowl Sunday

[recovering77]

Kind of a bummer how the Niners ended up losing Purdy last week, and the game was pretty much over at that point.

I don't really have too much analysis for this game. We've got the 1 seeds from both conferences. The two best teams all season, and it'll be an interesting game to watch.

1-1 last week. Won't be counting "tiny leans" or the props.


Will be playing OVER 50.5 in this game, and likely KC +1.5

I will also be adding several game props this weekend. It's a good game to try one of those same game parlays because I think the game will be going over. So more likely to hit over on player props and anytime touchdown scorers.

I might post those this weekend after I'm finished, time permitting.








2022 Playoffs
7-3 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays

2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays

2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans

2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).

2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans

2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans

2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs

[BoilerBacker]

GL, bro! On same...

[recovering77]

I'm actually considering taking Philly as of this moment, but I'm still completely unsure. I'll give you a good reason.

I think I saw on another forum that there is a prop somewhere (I haven't seen it yet personally) that pays even money if both teams score a TD in each half. That prop is shocking to me as I expected this to be a very high scoring game.

If both teams don't score a TD in each half, then there's only two possible scenarios:

1. The game goes under. And I'm not going to bet that scenario, because I already have the over and am taking a bunch of over props.
2. One team jumps out to a big lead and sits on it second half.

Philly has been jumping out to big leads all season and have sat on it repeatedly. I remember the Washington and Giants games in particular. Against Washington, they jumped out to a 24-0 lead at the half, and did not score again the rest of the game. In the playoff game against the Giants, they jumped out to a 28-7 lead, and they scored 10 in the second half because the RB didn't go down in the last couple of mins in the game. Otherwise they wouldn't have scored a TD in the second half of that game either.

Do I think Philly sits on it if they somehow get a big lead against KC? Not likely. But we have seen Mahomes completely helpless before in the SB against Tampa a couple of years back. Philly will sit on the ball if they don't feel there's an offensive threat on the other side.

The MVP is 0-3 in the super bowl in the last 3 games apparently. And even though Mahomes is underdog, they're already saying that if he can get another super bowl already, that he's in the conversation for greatest of all time.

So I could see a scenario where Philly jumps out 21-3 or 28-7 in the first half against that poor KC defense, and hits a couple of field goals in the second half. And Mahomes makes it interesting in the end and the game goes over.

Travis Kelce props are going to be very popular for the SB as he's their only real offensive threat, yet have an explosive offense. I wanted to take some Kelce props, but I'm afraid that it's too square of a play. So perhaps I take the heavy juice lines as opposed to the regular -110 line.


Philly did lose 3 games this season, as did KC, but Hurts has only lost 1 game as a starter. I've been around a while, but I'm not that old. It feels like there hasn't been a team that has dominated the season end to end, and won the super bowl in at least 25 years. Philly would be that team if they won.







It's also possible that Jalen Hurts shows his general inexperience in his second year as a starter. I still remember the whooping that Tampa Bay put on them in the playoffs last season.

But this isn't Tampa Bay's defense. This is a Chiefs defense that let Russell Wilson run for 2 TDs on them 6 weeks ago.

[recovering77]

Another prop that I heard about was on a show, and it was OVER 9.5 runners with heavy juice on the under.

So let's think about that. Philly is an automatic 4 as Hurts, Sanders, Scott, and Gainwell all get carries regularly. KC has Mahomes, Pacheco as the bellcow, Mckinnon usually mixing in with a couple of carries, and they just activated Edwards-Helaire. I would expect them to give him at least one carry if he's finally going to be active for a game.

This is the super bowl, so trick plays should be expected.

Actually hold on. With all the WR motions and handoffs, I would expect a WR to get a carry on both teams. So with heavy juice on the under, maybe that's the right side.

I was going to say, we've got 2 QBs with pretty bad injuries in this super bowl. 3 Weeks ago Hurts was in a ton of pain, and Mahomes still has a high ankle sprain. So especially if it's a blowout, it's possible that a backup comes in a runs in at least once.

[Kevin]

I've enjoyed your takes this season! Good luck in the squares pool!

[recovering77]

I went with Philly on the side. I'll count that as a play. Did a bunch of props too but I'll keep those to myself since I'm not counting that against my record.