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Pretty late to the post this week. I feel like it's a hard week, but at the same time, I do have picks that I like.
Every game on the card is a rematch from earlier in the year. So let me just get my notes down and we'll go from there.
I'm picking a 4 pack this week.
Plays:
Baltimore +8.5 (P1, L1) at Cincinnati (P1, W7). Total 40.5. This is a rematch of last week. My site is showing a push, but I don't remember seeing Baltimore +11 for most of the week, I think it was more like 8.5 or something. Division game so they played twice. Once with Lamar, and once without.
First game Baltimore won 19-17 as a 3 pt home favorite. It went was under the total of 47.5.
I remember that game a lot because I had baltimore. Baltimore started the game far superior, but they would get stuck just outside field goal range and have to punt. Cincinnati didn't move the ball at all for almost the entire first half, but got a TD and a FG late. Same thing happened in the second half. Baltimore moved it, but Cincy scored late, and Baltimore escaped with a game winnning FG.
Second game (last week), Cincinnati won 27-16. I'm just gonna say they covered. It went over the total of 39. Cincinnati had that game in full control I believe. I just looked at the line, and it was -8.5 to -9.5 basically the entire week. I think Lamar was ruled out pretty early in the week for that one.
I like Baltimore in this one. This just played last week, and the line is the same, or lower.
LA Chargers -2.5 (W4, P1) at Jacksonville (L1). Total 47. The Chargers are very quietly 4-0-1 over their last 5 games. This is a rematch from very early on in the season.
Jacksonville won 38-10 on the road as a 6.5 pt underdog. Went OVER the total of 45.5.
That's an interesting line as the Chargers line has been adjusted higher when accounting for home field advantage. The total has been adjusted accordingly since the first meeting went over. Tiny lean Chargers on first glance.
I'm switching my pick on this one. The Chargers are an extremely popular pick this week. I do buy into the theory that the NFL does want a Chargers / Chiefs matchup for next week, but it's possible that the points will come into play, so there will be no ML pick this week.
Reluctantly playing the Jags to beat the Chargers for the second time this season.
Minnesota -3 (W1) vs. NY Giants W4). Total 48.5. The Giants are coming into this game pretty strong having covered 4 of 5, and 6 of their last 7. This is a rematch from a few weeks ago.
Minnesota won 27-24 as a 4.5 pt home favorite, so the Giants covered the line. It went over the total of 48 by a miracle really.
I remember that game. Minnesota was fully in control, but the Giants made a nice comeback late, and Minnesota escaped with a field goal. The final quarter had 27 pts.
The Giants have had a nice story this season to make the playoffs, but I just don't see this Kirk Cousins team losing in the first round. So medium inital lean to the Vikings.
Dallas -2.5 (L1, P1)at Tampa Bay (L1). Total 45.5.To me, this is the hardest game on the board this week. We've got Tampa Bay who has looked like crap for basically the entire season. And We've got Dallas who just played their worst game in years last week. The way Dallas played was outright embarrassing for a game that actually did have some playoff ramifications.
This is a rematch of week 1. It was a Sunday Night game, and this is a Monday Night Game.
Tampa Bay won 19-3 as a 2.5 pt home favorite. It went way under the total of 49.5.
After watching the game, I realized that Brady was finished, and that gave me the green light to fade him most of this season. They won convincingly, but only because the defense locked Dallas down. I saw Brady taking checkdown after checkdown. He wasn't completing anything downfield, and his pass attempts were all very short. I wasn't sure if it was Brady, or if it was because of the pass rush, but that was not the Brady I was used to seeing for years.
The losing record team at home vs. the superior away team system has worked pretty well lately. Washington just did it as an 8.5 pt dog to Tampa a couple of years ago.
The difference here is that these teams have played before this season, and the losing record home team beat them already. And usually the home team is around a 7 point underdog in those scenarios. They're not even 3 here.
And that compounded with Dallas's horrific loss last week makes this the hardest game for me to pick this week. Part of me thinks Dallas moves on, but part of me thinks Brady proves why he's the GOAT by getting this playoff win.
The tiebreaker here to me is what have you done for me lately. The Bucs had a great game against Carolina the game before, and did have the lead going into halftime last week before benching all starters. Dallas having the worst game in years, yet still being a road favorite to a team that killed them already this season gives the nod to Dallas for me.
No Plays:
Seattle +9.5 (L1) at San Francisco (W1). Total 42.5. Seattle got in by way of beating the Rams, but not covering, and Detroit winning on Sunday Night. This is a division game, so they've played twice, including once with Brock Purdy.
San Fran won earlier in the year at home 27-7 as an 8.5 pt favorite. Went under the total of 40
San Fran won the second meeting on the road 21-13 as a 3 pt favorite. Went under the total of 42.5.
I guess I like Seattle here. Adjusted for home field, the line has been pretty much the same for all 3 games this season. I think San Fran gets the win but it's closer.
Edit: Bummer. I really liked Seattle in this one, but I have to pass because my system is a fade on Seattle
.
Because of the system, I will pass on this game despite kinda like Seattle. No Play.
Miami +13.5 (W2) at Buffalo (W2). Total 43.5. Division game, so they played twice, and Tua was there for both.
First game Miami won 21-19 at home as a 4.5 pt underdog. It went way under the total of 54.5
Second game Miami covered as a 7 pt road underdog. It went way over the total of 45.
I can't even pick this game. I was leaning Miami initially, but with Tua being ruled out I'm not sure I can. No pick, no lean for now.
Can't bet on against a backup QB in a playoff game, but also can't take Miami to cover all 3 games. No Play.
System Plays:
San Francisco -9.5 at Seattle. This is a half system play I believe. I didn't take Tenn last week even though I loved them cuz of the system. I guess I'll have to back away from Seattle on this one too, even though I really like Seattle as well. Bummer.
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
Every game on the card is a rematch from earlier in the year. So let me just get my notes down and we'll go from there.
I'm picking a 4 pack this week.
Plays:
Baltimore +8.5 (P1, L1) at Cincinnati (P1, W7). Total 40.5. This is a rematch of last week. My site is showing a push, but I don't remember seeing Baltimore +11 for most of the week, I think it was more like 8.5 or something. Division game so they played twice. Once with Lamar, and once without.
First game Baltimore won 19-17 as a 3 pt home favorite. It went was under the total of 47.5.
I remember that game a lot because I had baltimore. Baltimore started the game far superior, but they would get stuck just outside field goal range and have to punt. Cincinnati didn't move the ball at all for almost the entire first half, but got a TD and a FG late. Same thing happened in the second half. Baltimore moved it, but Cincy scored late, and Baltimore escaped with a game winnning FG.
Second game (last week), Cincinnati won 27-16. I'm just gonna say they covered. It went over the total of 39. Cincinnati had that game in full control I believe. I just looked at the line, and it was -8.5 to -9.5 basically the entire week. I think Lamar was ruled out pretty early in the week for that one.
I like Baltimore in this one. This just played last week, and the line is the same, or lower.
LA Chargers -2.5 (W4, P1) at Jacksonville (L1). Total 47. The Chargers are very quietly 4-0-1 over their last 5 games. This is a rematch from very early on in the season.
Jacksonville won 38-10 on the road as a 6.5 pt underdog. Went OVER the total of 45.5.
That's an interesting line as the Chargers line has been adjusted higher when accounting for home field advantage. The total has been adjusted accordingly since the first meeting went over. Tiny lean Chargers on first glance.
I'm switching my pick on this one. The Chargers are an extremely popular pick this week. I do buy into the theory that the NFL does want a Chargers / Chiefs matchup for next week, but it's possible that the points will come into play, so there will be no ML pick this week.
Reluctantly playing the Jags to beat the Chargers for the second time this season.
Minnesota -3 (W1) vs. NY Giants W4). Total 48.5. The Giants are coming into this game pretty strong having covered 4 of 5, and 6 of their last 7. This is a rematch from a few weeks ago.
Minnesota won 27-24 as a 4.5 pt home favorite, so the Giants covered the line. It went over the total of 48 by a miracle really.
I remember that game. Minnesota was fully in control, but the Giants made a nice comeback late, and Minnesota escaped with a field goal. The final quarter had 27 pts.
The Giants have had a nice story this season to make the playoffs, but I just don't see this Kirk Cousins team losing in the first round. So medium inital lean to the Vikings.
Dallas -2.5 (L1, P1)at Tampa Bay (L1). Total 45.5.To me, this is the hardest game on the board this week. We've got Tampa Bay who has looked like crap for basically the entire season. And We've got Dallas who just played their worst game in years last week. The way Dallas played was outright embarrassing for a game that actually did have some playoff ramifications.
This is a rematch of week 1. It was a Sunday Night game, and this is a Monday Night Game.
Tampa Bay won 19-3 as a 2.5 pt home favorite. It went way under the total of 49.5.
After watching the game, I realized that Brady was finished, and that gave me the green light to fade him most of this season. They won convincingly, but only because the defense locked Dallas down. I saw Brady taking checkdown after checkdown. He wasn't completing anything downfield, and his pass attempts were all very short. I wasn't sure if it was Brady, or if it was because of the pass rush, but that was not the Brady I was used to seeing for years.
The losing record team at home vs. the superior away team system has worked pretty well lately. Washington just did it as an 8.5 pt dog to Tampa a couple of years ago.
The difference here is that these teams have played before this season, and the losing record home team beat them already. And usually the home team is around a 7 point underdog in those scenarios. They're not even 3 here.
And that compounded with Dallas's horrific loss last week makes this the hardest game for me to pick this week. Part of me thinks Dallas moves on, but part of me thinks Brady proves why he's the GOAT by getting this playoff win.
The tiebreaker here to me is what have you done for me lately. The Bucs had a great game against Carolina the game before, and did have the lead going into halftime last week before benching all starters. Dallas having the worst game in years, yet still being a road favorite to a team that killed them already this season gives the nod to Dallas for me.
No Plays:
Seattle +9.5 (L1) at San Francisco (W1). Total 42.5. Seattle got in by way of beating the Rams, but not covering, and Detroit winning on Sunday Night. This is a division game, so they've played twice, including once with Brock Purdy.
San Fran won earlier in the year at home 27-7 as an 8.5 pt favorite. Went under the total of 40
San Fran won the second meeting on the road 21-13 as a 3 pt favorite. Went under the total of 42.5.
I guess I like Seattle here. Adjusted for home field, the line has been pretty much the same for all 3 games this season. I think San Fran gets the win but it's closer.
Edit: Bummer. I really liked Seattle in this one, but I have to pass because my system is a fade on Seattle
.Because of the system, I will pass on this game despite kinda like Seattle. No Play.
Miami +13.5 (W2) at Buffalo (W2). Total 43.5. Division game, so they played twice, and Tua was there for both.
First game Miami won 21-19 at home as a 4.5 pt underdog. It went way under the total of 54.5
Second game Miami covered as a 7 pt road underdog. It went way over the total of 45.
I can't even pick this game. I was leaning Miami initially, but with Tua being ruled out I'm not sure I can. No pick, no lean for now.
Can't bet on against a backup QB in a playoff game, but also can't take Miami to cover all 3 games. No Play.
System Plays:
San Francisco -9.5 at Seattle. This is a half system play I believe. I didn't take Tenn last week even though I loved them cuz of the system. I guess I'll have to back away from Seattle on this one too, even though I really like Seattle as well. Bummer.
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
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