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Good week last week for me. I went .500 overall, but hit nicely on the only game I put money on (the Raiders).
This week I'm on a mission to pick 2 winners. There's some possibles, but I've narrowed it down I think.
This week also determines if I come out above .500 for the season. I don't want to break my 5 year streak over .500 so there's pressure for that this week as well.
After much thought, I finally decided on my 2 picks being the over on Minnesota / Chicago and the over on Green Bay / Detroit. These are the only 2 games that I will actually put money on this week. Washington / Dallas over just missed the cut. I may leave that as a play or move it down.
Plays:
Minnesota (O6) / Chicago OVER 42.5 (U1). Minnesota still has something to play for I believe. Maybe seeding, but I think the line has more to do with Chicago than Minnesota off that horrid loss last week. I normally would be all over this over, but Nathan Peterman is starting for Chicago and I just dunno what I'm going to see from him against this horrid Minnesota defense with barely any offensive weapons. Justin Jefferson was really mad last week because he had a chance at breaking Calvin Johnson's regular season yards record. I believe he also needs a few yards to break Randy Moss's franchise record this week. I think Cousins tries his best to get him the record and Minnesota wins this game.
This is not your typical backup QB system play either. Peterman is really famous for being that guy that threw like 4 INTs in the first half of that game. And I don't think he's actually played a lot here and there over the years. So despite being a relative unknown backup, he has a really famous game everyone remembers. I think Peterman has managed to stay in this league so long because he probably practices very well. He just craps the bed in real game action. This is probably the best matchup he's ever gonna see though. This defense is badddddd.
Apparently Minnesota has hinted at only playing starters for a series. Nick Mullens may take over very early in this game.
I actually think the talk of resting starters is BS. Cousins over 200 passing yards is -2000, and over 250 is -255. But I guess I don't see an under option.
Minnesota has allowed 5 out of the last 8 teams to make at least 3 field goals on them. I think Chicago can muster 1 TD in this game.
With the receiving record on the line, I think Cousins force feeds a bit to Jefferson, but he's too good to get shut down. But Chicago doubles Jefferson and allows the rest of the receivers to flourish this game.
I'll give Minnesota 4 TDs (Jefferson, Thielen, K.J. Osborn, and Cook). They make one field goal as well.
Chicago scores a late TD on top of 3 field goals, but misses the 2pt conversion.
Minnesota wins the game 31-15, as Cousins gets back on track for the playoffs.
Detroit (U1) / Green Bay (O1) OVER 49. This is a rematch of earlier in the year when Detroit beat Green Bay 15-9 on a total of 49. The total is set higher for this one. I don't think Detroit's offense is any better than it was back earlier in the season, but the defense has stepped up. Green Bay really didn't show much offensively last week either. They got a lot of turnovers, and a pick 6 and a kickoff return TD.
This game kinda goes down to whether or not I think Detroit will cover. Because I don't think it goes over unless Detroit can keep it close and force Green Bay into scoring. Green Bay is the type of team that gets a lead and tries to sit on it and run out the clock.
Edit: I think Seattle beats the Rams and knocks Detroit out of the playoffs before the game starts. The Seattle win causes some gyrations in the total and the spread, but Dan Campbell has a disciplined team that leaves it all on the field to finish off the season. Detroit gives Green Bay all they can handle and forces them to keep scoring.
Deandre Swift has 2 TDs, probably on the ground. Jamaal Williams plunges one in from short range.
Both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon punch in a TD, One more TD from Rodgers running or to Tonyan.
Not sure who covers the game, but I see a 29-22, 30-21, or 28-24 type game.
Dallas (U1) / Washington (U1) OVER 40. Apparently Sam Howell will be starting and playing this entire game. Ron Rivera wanted to Start Heinicke, but bring Howell in for a part of the game, but humble Heinicke said he deserves a chance to play the whole game. This is a rematch of earlier in the season where Cooper Rush won 25-10 as a 3 pt home favorite against Wentz. Dallas is still alive for the division if they win and Philly loses as a 14 pt favorite to the Giants who have nothing to play for. Dak should play most of this game, and from watching Dallas play, they are not a team that likes to sit on the ball. They really like to run up the score. If Wentz could only put up 10 against Dallas, who knows how much Howell can do. If I'm taking the over, I'm really counting on Dallas to put up 30+ on a decent Washington defense.
Notes: Washington will be missing their top 2 RBs in Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson this game. J.D. McKissic likely out too. So third string QB Sam Howell will be working with the third string RB and someone off the practice squad.
Leans:
LA Rams +6.5 (L1)at Seattle (W1). The Rams got beat down 31-10 last week to the Chargers while Seattle ended a 6 game non-covering streak with a 23-6 beatdown of the Jets last week. Seattle is mad because they need a win and a Detroit win to make the playoffs, and Detroit will know the outcome of this game before they play on Sunday night. This game is lower on the list because the Rams did cover the last meeting, losing 27-23 as a 7 point home underdog with Wolford at QB. The Rams really should have won that game too. The Rams scored late, but Seattle scored even later to pull out the victory. If I were to play this game, it would be because Jacksonville covered against Tennessee. That would be the only way I pull the trigger.
Is Baker an upgrade over Wolford? Hard to say sometimes, cuz Baker can be really hot and cold.
I'm switching this pick up to Seattle. Tennessee just completed their end of season meltdown. I'll take Seattle to not melt down their season. I think this sets up a nice trap bet for SNF between Detroit and Green Bay.
Miami -2 (W1)vs. NY Jets (L3). Both teams come in on a 5 game winning streak, but Miami is able to clinch a playoff spot here with a win. This is a rematch from earlier in the season where Zach Wilson had his first game back and played against Skylar Thompson and blew him out 40-17 as a 3 point home underdog. I've been talking about Miami since week 1, in that I believe the NFL wants Miami to make the playoffs so it bolsters their defense against Brian Flores' discrimination lawsuit that he was the problem. Also, there are rumors that Mike McDaniels is on the hot seat for some reason, and a loss here and he could be gone. I don't believe that, but a win here would put that case to bed.
One note I missed on this one is that Bridgewater dislocated his pinkie on Sunday. It wasn't looking like he was going to be able to play, but it looks like he did a few light throws today. That would explain the line movement from Jets -1.5 to Miami -2 or even 2.5 in some places. Skylar Thompson is getting first team reps for now. This complicates the pick a bit for me. Thompson hasn't really shown me anything this season to make me think he's anything special. He's completing about 50% of his passes. Last week he got the backdoor cover throwing 1 TD and 1 INT. He's already played basically 2 full games this season and didn't cover either of them.
Edit: Oh, I missed that Miami doesn't control their own destiny. They need both a Miami win, and a Patriots loss to make the playoffs.
Jets are eliminated from the playoffs! Can't believe I missed that. Well that changes EVERYTHING. Take this game off the board until I know more including the final decision on playoffs tomorrow.
Edit 2: No change to the number of playoff teams. But Mike White is now out. So it's back to JOE FLACCO. Because of this the line has moved even more for Miami. Coach said Bridgewater may be active, but only as a backup.
Cleveland +2.5 (W1) at Pittsburgh (W3). I believe Pittsburgh is still in the playoff race if they can win here, the Jets beat the Dolphins (Pitt beat NYJ earlier this year), and Buffalo beats New England as a 7 pt favorite (Pitt Lost to NE). So it's a very feasible scenario. Last year there was a conspiracy going around that the NFL wanted Pittsburgh in the playoffs, and all those scenarios came true last year in Big Ben's last season. And here they are again, with a decent shot of making it. I don't think it happens two years in a row, but I would definitely take the points and not the ML in most of the games this week. With nothing to play for for most teams, I could see a lot of teams going for 2 and the win at the end rather than going into OT. This could be one of those games.
The Pittsburgh playoff scenario is what's giving me a slight pause on my Miami pick though. So I do need to look into this more. Whenever Pitt is in a game with a low line, I feel they find a way to pull it off somehow, like last week.
Atlanta -4.5 (L2) vs. Tampa Bay (W1). The line is this high because Tampa has locked up their playoff seed and have nothing to play for. Tampa beat them 21-16 at home as a 10 pt favorite earlier this season, but that's irrelevent in this context. I believe the line opened at 6. Atlanta has won 6 games this season, and 5 of those games were by 4 or less. So I think the line is too high considering Ridder has had trouble scoring in his 3 starts. This is more of a hunch play.
System Plays:
Jacksonville -6 (W4) vs. Tennessee (L2, P1, L3). I'm actually not surprised that this showed up as a system play. Too many trends were in the Titan's favor. So I will no consider Tenn a play, and may consider going the opposite now. Previous write-up below.
Tennessee +6.5 (L2, P1, L3)at Jacksonville (W4). I was set on taking Tennessee earlier this week, but I'm having second thoughts. We have two teams going in opposite directions. The Titans have lost 6 games in a row, and Jacksonville has won their last 4. I read some trends that point to Tenn. The Titans are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games where the spread is 5 or higher, including 8-7 straight up. This is a rematch of a few weeks back where Jacksonville killed Tenn 36-22 in a game that wasn't even that close. I think it was 36-10 at one point or something. And that was with Tannehill and at Tennessee.
I hesitate because it looks like a pretty popular pick for some reason. Also, Tannehill may be out for the season. He's on IR, and he can't even play until the second round of the playoffs at the earliest. I don't think the NFL wants to put a Dobbs led Titans team against anyone in the playoffs instead of these up and coming Jaguars.
2022 Regular Season
43-43 Plays, 22-26 Leans, 4-3 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
This week I'm on a mission to pick 2 winners. There's some possibles, but I've narrowed it down I think.
This week also determines if I come out above .500 for the season. I don't want to break my 5 year streak over .500 so there's pressure for that this week as well.
After much thought, I finally decided on my 2 picks being the over on Minnesota / Chicago and the over on Green Bay / Detroit. These are the only 2 games that I will actually put money on this week. Washington / Dallas over just missed the cut. I may leave that as a play or move it down.
Plays:
Minnesota (O6) / Chicago OVER 42.5 (U1). Minnesota still has something to play for I believe. Maybe seeding, but I think the line has more to do with Chicago than Minnesota off that horrid loss last week. I normally would be all over this over, but Nathan Peterman is starting for Chicago and I just dunno what I'm going to see from him against this horrid Minnesota defense with barely any offensive weapons. Justin Jefferson was really mad last week because he had a chance at breaking Calvin Johnson's regular season yards record. I believe he also needs a few yards to break Randy Moss's franchise record this week. I think Cousins tries his best to get him the record and Minnesota wins this game.
This is not your typical backup QB system play either. Peterman is really famous for being that guy that threw like 4 INTs in the first half of that game. And I don't think he's actually played a lot here and there over the years. So despite being a relative unknown backup, he has a really famous game everyone remembers. I think Peterman has managed to stay in this league so long because he probably practices very well. He just craps the bed in real game action. This is probably the best matchup he's ever gonna see though. This defense is badddddd.
Apparently Minnesota has hinted at only playing starters for a series. Nick Mullens may take over very early in this game.
I actually think the talk of resting starters is BS. Cousins over 200 passing yards is -2000, and over 250 is -255. But I guess I don't see an under option.
Minnesota has allowed 5 out of the last 8 teams to make at least 3 field goals on them. I think Chicago can muster 1 TD in this game.
With the receiving record on the line, I think Cousins force feeds a bit to Jefferson, but he's too good to get shut down. But Chicago doubles Jefferson and allows the rest of the receivers to flourish this game.
I'll give Minnesota 4 TDs (Jefferson, Thielen, K.J. Osborn, and Cook). They make one field goal as well.
Chicago scores a late TD on top of 3 field goals, but misses the 2pt conversion.
Minnesota wins the game 31-15, as Cousins gets back on track for the playoffs.
Detroit (U1) / Green Bay (O1) OVER 49. This is a rematch of earlier in the year when Detroit beat Green Bay 15-9 on a total of 49. The total is set higher for this one. I don't think Detroit's offense is any better than it was back earlier in the season, but the defense has stepped up. Green Bay really didn't show much offensively last week either. They got a lot of turnovers, and a pick 6 and a kickoff return TD.
This game kinda goes down to whether or not I think Detroit will cover. Because I don't think it goes over unless Detroit can keep it close and force Green Bay into scoring. Green Bay is the type of team that gets a lead and tries to sit on it and run out the clock.
Edit: I think Seattle beats the Rams and knocks Detroit out of the playoffs before the game starts. The Seattle win causes some gyrations in the total and the spread, but Dan Campbell has a disciplined team that leaves it all on the field to finish off the season. Detroit gives Green Bay all they can handle and forces them to keep scoring.
Deandre Swift has 2 TDs, probably on the ground. Jamaal Williams plunges one in from short range.
Both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon punch in a TD, One more TD from Rodgers running or to Tonyan.
Not sure who covers the game, but I see a 29-22, 30-21, or 28-24 type game.
Dallas (U1) / Washington (U1) OVER 40. Apparently Sam Howell will be starting and playing this entire game. Ron Rivera wanted to Start Heinicke, but bring Howell in for a part of the game, but humble Heinicke said he deserves a chance to play the whole game. This is a rematch of earlier in the season where Cooper Rush won 25-10 as a 3 pt home favorite against Wentz. Dallas is still alive for the division if they win and Philly loses as a 14 pt favorite to the Giants who have nothing to play for. Dak should play most of this game, and from watching Dallas play, they are not a team that likes to sit on the ball. They really like to run up the score. If Wentz could only put up 10 against Dallas, who knows how much Howell can do. If I'm taking the over, I'm really counting on Dallas to put up 30+ on a decent Washington defense.
Notes: Washington will be missing their top 2 RBs in Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson this game. J.D. McKissic likely out too. So third string QB Sam Howell will be working with the third string RB and someone off the practice squad.
Leans:
LA Rams +6.5 (L1)at Seattle (W1). The Rams got beat down 31-10 last week to the Chargers while Seattle ended a 6 game non-covering streak with a 23-6 beatdown of the Jets last week. Seattle is mad because they need a win and a Detroit win to make the playoffs, and Detroit will know the outcome of this game before they play on Sunday night. This game is lower on the list because the Rams did cover the last meeting, losing 27-23 as a 7 point home underdog with Wolford at QB. The Rams really should have won that game too. The Rams scored late, but Seattle scored even later to pull out the victory. If I were to play this game, it would be because Jacksonville covered against Tennessee. That would be the only way I pull the trigger.
Is Baker an upgrade over Wolford? Hard to say sometimes, cuz Baker can be really hot and cold.
I'm switching this pick up to Seattle. Tennessee just completed their end of season meltdown. I'll take Seattle to not melt down their season. I think this sets up a nice trap bet for SNF between Detroit and Green Bay.
Miami -2 (W1)vs. NY Jets (L3). Both teams come in on a 5 game winning streak, but Miami is able to clinch a playoff spot here with a win. This is a rematch from earlier in the season where Zach Wilson had his first game back and played against Skylar Thompson and blew him out 40-17 as a 3 point home underdog. I've been talking about Miami since week 1, in that I believe the NFL wants Miami to make the playoffs so it bolsters their defense against Brian Flores' discrimination lawsuit that he was the problem. Also, there are rumors that Mike McDaniels is on the hot seat for some reason, and a loss here and he could be gone. I don't believe that, but a win here would put that case to bed.
One note I missed on this one is that Bridgewater dislocated his pinkie on Sunday. It wasn't looking like he was going to be able to play, but it looks like he did a few light throws today. That would explain the line movement from Jets -1.5 to Miami -2 or even 2.5 in some places. Skylar Thompson is getting first team reps for now. This complicates the pick a bit for me. Thompson hasn't really shown me anything this season to make me think he's anything special. He's completing about 50% of his passes. Last week he got the backdoor cover throwing 1 TD and 1 INT. He's already played basically 2 full games this season and didn't cover either of them.
Edit: Oh, I missed that Miami doesn't control their own destiny. They need both a Miami win, and a Patriots loss to make the playoffs.
Jets are eliminated from the playoffs! Can't believe I missed that. Well that changes EVERYTHING. Take this game off the board until I know more including the final decision on playoffs tomorrow.
Edit 2: No change to the number of playoff teams. But Mike White is now out. So it's back to JOE FLACCO. Because of this the line has moved even more for Miami. Coach said Bridgewater may be active, but only as a backup.
Cleveland +2.5 (W1) at Pittsburgh (W3). I believe Pittsburgh is still in the playoff race if they can win here, the Jets beat the Dolphins (Pitt beat NYJ earlier this year), and Buffalo beats New England as a 7 pt favorite (Pitt Lost to NE). So it's a very feasible scenario. Last year there was a conspiracy going around that the NFL wanted Pittsburgh in the playoffs, and all those scenarios came true last year in Big Ben's last season. And here they are again, with a decent shot of making it. I don't think it happens two years in a row, but I would definitely take the points and not the ML in most of the games this week. With nothing to play for for most teams, I could see a lot of teams going for 2 and the win at the end rather than going into OT. This could be one of those games.
The Pittsburgh playoff scenario is what's giving me a slight pause on my Miami pick though. So I do need to look into this more. Whenever Pitt is in a game with a low line, I feel they find a way to pull it off somehow, like last week.
Atlanta -4.5 (L2) vs. Tampa Bay (W1). The line is this high because Tampa has locked up their playoff seed and have nothing to play for. Tampa beat them 21-16 at home as a 10 pt favorite earlier this season, but that's irrelevent in this context. I believe the line opened at 6. Atlanta has won 6 games this season, and 5 of those games were by 4 or less. So I think the line is too high considering Ridder has had trouble scoring in his 3 starts. This is more of a hunch play.
System Plays:
Jacksonville -6 (W4) vs. Tennessee (L2, P1, L3). I'm actually not surprised that this showed up as a system play. Too many trends were in the Titan's favor. So I will no consider Tenn a play, and may consider going the opposite now. Previous write-up below.
Tennessee +6.5 (L2, P1, L3)at Jacksonville (W4). I was set on taking Tennessee earlier this week, but I'm having second thoughts. We have two teams going in opposite directions. The Titans have lost 6 games in a row, and Jacksonville has won their last 4. I read some trends that point to Tenn. The Titans are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games where the spread is 5 or higher, including 8-7 straight up. This is a rematch of a few weeks back where Jacksonville killed Tenn 36-22 in a game that wasn't even that close. I think it was 36-10 at one point or something. And that was with Tannehill and at Tennessee.
I hesitate because it looks like a pretty popular pick for some reason. Also, Tannehill may be out for the season. He's on IR, and he can't even play until the second round of the playoffs at the earliest. I don't think the NFL wants to put a Dobbs led Titans team against anyone in the playoffs instead of these up and coming Jaguars.
2022 Regular Season
43-43 Plays, 22-26 Leans, 4-3 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
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