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Not a great week last week and painful miss on that over in the Green Bay game. 33 pts in the first half, and Miami gets blanked in the second. But that's football for you.
Last week 1-2 plays, 4-3 Leans, 1-0 on my college football special.
Not really feeling this week as we're getting to the meaningless games portion of the season. But my crapshoot is just as good as anyone else's crapshoot.
After much thought, I realized that I picked too many games this week after having to reach. And with so many short lines against teams with nothing to play for, as well as a ton of higher consensus games, I'm scaling it down.
The Raiders are the only game that I am actually putting money on this week. The rest of the games I will probably drop to leans, or I may pick a few to add to the plays section. Not sure yet.
Plays:
LV Raiders +9.5 (L1) vs. San Francisco (W6). San Fran is due for a regression, and Stidham starting for the Raiders fits the backup QB system pretty well. He's already played this season in the New Orleans blowout and had decent stats. He's a McDaniels carryover from the Patriots so he's pretty familiar with the system. I remember he played very well in the preseason his rookie year, but hasn't shown any flashes of that in regular season play. Decent spot after San Fran's blowout of Washington last week who had everything to play for. The Raiders have nothing to play for and are starting their backup and have a pretty crappy defense that San Fran's rookie QB should be able to exploit, but I think the Raiders find a way to keep it close.
Jacksonville -3 (W3) at Houston (W3). Last week I did a whole writeup about how Jacksonville and Tennessee were on a collision course for a play-in game Week 18. All Jacksonville had to do was win this Houston game and the Tenn game next week would have been for the division. Well by virtue of Jacksonville winning last week, Tennessee losing their last two, this is now a meaningless game for Jacksonville. So why do I like Jacksonville in a meaningless game? Well this is a revenge game from way on earlier in the season. Houston won at Jacksonville as a 7 point underdog for their only win of the season. Houston is playing pretty well lately, covering their last 3. Seems like value taking a Houston team at +150 on the money line against a division rival that has nothing to play for, that they beat already this season. But the #1 pick thing will probably scare away anyone that would consider the ML.
I may chicken out and take the ML, but with a loss Houston clinches the #1 overall pick in the draft. And I think that usually happens before the last week of the season.
Philly ML (W1) vs. New Orleans (L2). I believe Philly clinches the #1 overall seed with a win here. They own the tiebreak over Minnesota and Dallas would be too many games behind. I am slightly concerned with them covering the line as I think this could be a really low scoring, grind out game after Minshew played in that shootout last week. So I'm still looking into Philly ML, possibly even New Orleans with the points, or I may just play the under.
I almost dropped this down to a lean because I think it's kinda cheap to get a win on the record for a -260 when I treat it as any other loss if it loses. I strongly considered doing a ML parlay with Jacksonville that pays +117, but I decided against it and just went with the Raiders. I'm fairly confident Philly will win the game, but I'm not sure about the cover. I think it's a low scoring game with both teams scoring in the teens.
Green Bay -3 (W3) vs. Minnesota (L3). Minnesota usually plays Green Bay pretty tough, but I don't think Minnesota has swept the season series since Brett Favre was the QB. A 12-3 team getting +150 on the ML does look like a ton of value. I strongly considered this game as my main straight bet too. Watch Christian Watson's status. The Packers were thin at WR already, but at least they have a healthy Romeo Doubs back.
NJ Jets -1.5 (L2) at Seattle (L6). People are still talking about how great Geno Smith is despite him being on the tail end of a collapse. Mike White is supposedly auditioning for the starting gig next season. Pretty shocking to see Seattle getting points at home against the Jets when they have everything to play for still. They're the first team out of the playoffs at the moment.
Indy +5.5 (L1) at NY Giants (W2). Giants have been undervalued for most of the season, so it is a bit odd to see them giving so many points this season. Perhaps it's warranted because Indy looks so bad on Monday. I may flip this pick if I end up going with the Saints in the Philly game.
I'll leave this as a play. I considered this as my primary pick solely because it has one of the highest consensus percentages I've seen this season. Indy has a very outside chance of landing the #1 overall pick, but Houston will clinch tomorrow.
Leans:
Miami +2.5 (L1) at New England (L2). Finally a good spot to take Miami, which I've been trying to do all season but pass them up most of the time. I'm still with the conspiracy that the NFL wants Miami to at least make the playoffs this year. They are getting sued for discrimination by Brian Flores, and I'm sure the NFL would love the Dolphins to make the playoffs to help build the case that Flores was the problem. Bridgewater is probably starting this week. He already lost earlier this season when he got hurt after Tua's first concussion. Reminds me a little bit of the Denver/AZ game a couple of weeks back. New England has really looks horrible the last couple of weeks not considering the defensive touchdowns.
There's a ton of playoff scenarios that I don't really want to do hypotheticals for. But it looks like Miami controls it's destiny really if they win out (at New England this week and home vs. Jets next week). New England plays at Buffalo next week. Buffalo is still playing for the bye, but they have a tough game against Cincinnati on Monday. A loss to CIncy likely ends their shot at a bye, as the Chiefs would only have to beat Denver this week and Jarrett Stidham led Raiders team next week. And Cincy would hold the tie break over them as well.
Miami, New England, Jets, and Pittsburgh are all fighting for that last spot.
Rambling on again. I think if New England wins there could be drama going into the last week and the NFL probably wants that too. New England is eliminated from the playoffs with a loss here. A New England win puts New England, Miami, and possibly the NY Jets all at 8-8 going into the last week. Miami and the Jets play each other. New England owns the tiebreaker over the Jets head to head 2-0.
Edit: The fantasy gurus are saying they don't think Tua suits up again this season. A Bridgewater lead Dolphins team in the playoffs doesn't really sound enticing to me.
So maybe the theme of these next picks will be all teams going 8-8 into the last week. New England has the tiebreaker over both the Jets and Pittsburgh. They would control their own destiny with a win tomorrow. I imagine Cleveland would love to play spoiler for Pittsburgh next week as well.
I almost made this a no play, but I will make a tiny lean to New England on this one. New England has looked like trash for two weeks in a row, and that's unusual for a Bill Belichick coached team. And I'm also going with the theory that the NFL wants all these teams at 8-8 to make next Sunday very interesting. including the Steelers.
Pittsburgh +2.5 (W2) at Baltimore (W1). Baltimore doesn't have much to play for this game. They've clinched a playoff spot with an outside chance at the division I think if Cincinnati loses Monday. They played each other a few weeks back, and Baltimore won by 2 with Huntley at QB in a game that wasn't as close as the score made it look. Probably a good spot to fade the Baltimore NeverCovers off a win and a cover but barely.
I like Pittsburgh here mainly for the angle that says the NFL really wants Pittsburgh to be in the hunt until the end. However, I pause because Pittsburgh is getting points against a team that doesn't really have anything to play for. So I can't put it up as a play.
Washington -1.5 (L3) vs. Cleveland (L1). Washington has really fizzled down the stretch and we've got Wentz back in the starting lineup this week. I guess you could call this a bit of a chase play. Couple of veteran backups came in last week and both lost (Minshew and Foles). Wentz still makes boneheaded turnovers sometimes, but he does take care of the ball and not try to sling it for no reason. Cleveland has looked very bad on offense since Watson has come in. Washington has played pretty well against teams like Cleveland that have struggled offensively.
This was more of a chase play on veteran backup QBs. However, I feel this is similar to the Pittsburgh game. Washington has everything to play for and Cleveland has nothing to play for other than just trying to improve the pick that they are giving the Texans for the Watson trade. I'm sure management wants them to play their hearts out.
So I lean Washington, but the line is too short for me against a team with nothing to play for.
Chicago / Detroit UNDER 52.5. I've been doing a lot of prop analysis since one of my fantasy football teams is in the Championship. The player props seem awfully low for a rematch of a game that ending up being a shootout. I actually do like Detroit a little bit in this game to finally give me that Chicago fade with the under in a possible blowout. Barring defensive touchdowns and Fields running for 3 TDs, I don't really see how this game can go over. Fields' anytime td line is +100 which seems kinda like a sucker bet to me.
System Plays:
None again, sorry.
2022 Regular Season
40-40 Plays, 20-24 Leans, 4-3 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
Last week 1-2 plays, 4-3 Leans, 1-0 on my college football special.
Not really feeling this week as we're getting to the meaningless games portion of the season. But my crapshoot is just as good as anyone else's crapshoot.
After much thought, I realized that I picked too many games this week after having to reach. And with so many short lines against teams with nothing to play for, as well as a ton of higher consensus games, I'm scaling it down.
The Raiders are the only game that I am actually putting money on this week. The rest of the games I will probably drop to leans, or I may pick a few to add to the plays section. Not sure yet.
Plays:
LV Raiders +9.5 (L1) vs. San Francisco (W6). San Fran is due for a regression, and Stidham starting for the Raiders fits the backup QB system pretty well. He's already played this season in the New Orleans blowout and had decent stats. He's a McDaniels carryover from the Patriots so he's pretty familiar with the system. I remember he played very well in the preseason his rookie year, but hasn't shown any flashes of that in regular season play. Decent spot after San Fran's blowout of Washington last week who had everything to play for. The Raiders have nothing to play for and are starting their backup and have a pretty crappy defense that San Fran's rookie QB should be able to exploit, but I think the Raiders find a way to keep it close.
Jacksonville -3 (W3) at Houston (W3). Last week I did a whole writeup about how Jacksonville and Tennessee were on a collision course for a play-in game Week 18. All Jacksonville had to do was win this Houston game and the Tenn game next week would have been for the division. Well by virtue of Jacksonville winning last week, Tennessee losing their last two, this is now a meaningless game for Jacksonville. So why do I like Jacksonville in a meaningless game? Well this is a revenge game from way on earlier in the season. Houston won at Jacksonville as a 7 point underdog for their only win of the season. Houston is playing pretty well lately, covering their last 3. Seems like value taking a Houston team at +150 on the money line against a division rival that has nothing to play for, that they beat already this season. But the #1 pick thing will probably scare away anyone that would consider the ML.
I may chicken out and take the ML, but with a loss Houston clinches the #1 overall pick in the draft. And I think that usually happens before the last week of the season.
Philly ML (W1) vs. New Orleans (L2). I believe Philly clinches the #1 overall seed with a win here. They own the tiebreak over Minnesota and Dallas would be too many games behind. I am slightly concerned with them covering the line as I think this could be a really low scoring, grind out game after Minshew played in that shootout last week. So I'm still looking into Philly ML, possibly even New Orleans with the points, or I may just play the under.
I almost dropped this down to a lean because I think it's kinda cheap to get a win on the record for a -260 when I treat it as any other loss if it loses. I strongly considered doing a ML parlay with Jacksonville that pays +117, but I decided against it and just went with the Raiders. I'm fairly confident Philly will win the game, but I'm not sure about the cover. I think it's a low scoring game with both teams scoring in the teens.
Green Bay -3 (W3) vs. Minnesota (L3). Minnesota usually plays Green Bay pretty tough, but I don't think Minnesota has swept the season series since Brett Favre was the QB. A 12-3 team getting +150 on the ML does look like a ton of value. I strongly considered this game as my main straight bet too. Watch Christian Watson's status. The Packers were thin at WR already, but at least they have a healthy Romeo Doubs back.
NJ Jets -1.5 (L2) at Seattle (L6). People are still talking about how great Geno Smith is despite him being on the tail end of a collapse. Mike White is supposedly auditioning for the starting gig next season. Pretty shocking to see Seattle getting points at home against the Jets when they have everything to play for still. They're the first team out of the playoffs at the moment.
Indy +5.5 (L1) at NY Giants (W2). Giants have been undervalued for most of the season, so it is a bit odd to see them giving so many points this season. Perhaps it's warranted because Indy looks so bad on Monday. I may flip this pick if I end up going with the Saints in the Philly game.
I'll leave this as a play. I considered this as my primary pick solely because it has one of the highest consensus percentages I've seen this season. Indy has a very outside chance of landing the #1 overall pick, but Houston will clinch tomorrow.
Leans:
Miami +2.5 (L1) at New England (L2). Finally a good spot to take Miami, which I've been trying to do all season but pass them up most of the time. I'm still with the conspiracy that the NFL wants Miami to at least make the playoffs this year. They are getting sued for discrimination by Brian Flores, and I'm sure the NFL would love the Dolphins to make the playoffs to help build the case that Flores was the problem. Bridgewater is probably starting this week. He already lost earlier this season when he got hurt after Tua's first concussion. Reminds me a little bit of the Denver/AZ game a couple of weeks back. New England has really looks horrible the last couple of weeks not considering the defensive touchdowns.
There's a ton of playoff scenarios that I don't really want to do hypotheticals for. But it looks like Miami controls it's destiny really if they win out (at New England this week and home vs. Jets next week). New England plays at Buffalo next week. Buffalo is still playing for the bye, but they have a tough game against Cincinnati on Monday. A loss to CIncy likely ends their shot at a bye, as the Chiefs would only have to beat Denver this week and Jarrett Stidham led Raiders team next week. And Cincy would hold the tie break over them as well.
Miami, New England, Jets, and Pittsburgh are all fighting for that last spot.
Rambling on again. I think if New England wins there could be drama going into the last week and the NFL probably wants that too. New England is eliminated from the playoffs with a loss here. A New England win puts New England, Miami, and possibly the NY Jets all at 8-8 going into the last week. Miami and the Jets play each other. New England owns the tiebreaker over the Jets head to head 2-0.
Edit: The fantasy gurus are saying they don't think Tua suits up again this season. A Bridgewater lead Dolphins team in the playoffs doesn't really sound enticing to me.
So maybe the theme of these next picks will be all teams going 8-8 into the last week. New England has the tiebreaker over both the Jets and Pittsburgh. They would control their own destiny with a win tomorrow. I imagine Cleveland would love to play spoiler for Pittsburgh next week as well.
I almost made this a no play, but I will make a tiny lean to New England on this one. New England has looked like trash for two weeks in a row, and that's unusual for a Bill Belichick coached team. And I'm also going with the theory that the NFL wants all these teams at 8-8 to make next Sunday very interesting. including the Steelers.
Pittsburgh +2.5 (W2) at Baltimore (W1). Baltimore doesn't have much to play for this game. They've clinched a playoff spot with an outside chance at the division I think if Cincinnati loses Monday. They played each other a few weeks back, and Baltimore won by 2 with Huntley at QB in a game that wasn't as close as the score made it look. Probably a good spot to fade the Baltimore NeverCovers off a win and a cover but barely.
I like Pittsburgh here mainly for the angle that says the NFL really wants Pittsburgh to be in the hunt until the end. However, I pause because Pittsburgh is getting points against a team that doesn't really have anything to play for. So I can't put it up as a play.
Washington -1.5 (L3) vs. Cleveland (L1). Washington has really fizzled down the stretch and we've got Wentz back in the starting lineup this week. I guess you could call this a bit of a chase play. Couple of veteran backups came in last week and both lost (Minshew and Foles). Wentz still makes boneheaded turnovers sometimes, but he does take care of the ball and not try to sling it for no reason. Cleveland has looked very bad on offense since Watson has come in. Washington has played pretty well against teams like Cleveland that have struggled offensively.
This was more of a chase play on veteran backup QBs. However, I feel this is similar to the Pittsburgh game. Washington has everything to play for and Cleveland has nothing to play for other than just trying to improve the pick that they are giving the Texans for the Watson trade. I'm sure management wants them to play their hearts out.
So I lean Washington, but the line is too short for me against a team with nothing to play for.
Chicago / Detroit UNDER 52.5. I've been doing a lot of prop analysis since one of my fantasy football teams is in the Championship. The player props seem awfully low for a rematch of a game that ending up being a shootout. I actually do like Detroit a little bit in this game to finally give me that Chicago fade with the under in a possible blowout. Barring defensive touchdowns and Fields running for 3 TDs, I don't really see how this game can go over. Fields' anytime td line is +100 which seems kinda like a sucker bet to me.
System Plays:
None again, sorry.
2022 Regular Season
40-40 Plays, 20-24 Leans, 4-3 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
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