Week 15

[recovering77]

Really busy this weekend. It's not one of those weeks I feel confident about like the last couple. It'll probably take some reaching this week, and I usually don't do well those types of weeks.

Last week 3-2 Plays, 2-0 Leans, 0-1 System Plays.

Plays:

Indy +3.5 (L2) at Minnesota (L1). I'm thinking a lot about this game because I'm in the fantasy playoffs and I'm not sure whether to start Indy's QB or their Kicker. For a team with such a good record, Minnesota's defense is really, really bad. Kickers, quarterbacks, wide receivers, all do well against the Vikings. I'm going back and forth with Indy or the Over in this one. The total is set at 47.5 when Indy has struggled on offense the entire season. If Indy covers, it's more likely to go under IMO. Tough call and the early Saturday game. I'll stick to the side for now and make it a consensus fade.


No Plays:

Baltimore +2.5 (W1) at Cleveland (L1). I said I'd probably take Baltimore again this week, and I'll probably follow through. Huntley will be playing and that's all that matters to me.

Edit: I'm actually going to make this a no play I think. Watson has looked horrid so far, and Baltimore rolls in 9-4 with their QB that's not that much worse than Lamar, and they get 2.5. Not the type of game I like playing, and tough to take the Baltimore NeverCovers to cover 2 weeks in a row.

Miami/Buffalo. Not really sure what to think about this game. Logic would lead you to believe that a Miami based team may struggle in the Saturday night game where it will likely be snowing. Tua is overrated, but Miami is due for a bounceback after two poor showings and with that bright coach of his. Bad weather I usually take the over or lay off the total. I choose to lay off the game entirely. This is a rematch and Buffalo was -4 on the road and didn't cover. The line has been adjusted accordingly, so I don't have an angle there. If both Indy and Baltimore cover earlier in the day, I'd probably lean Buffalo as a chase. I'll probably make a lean on the over as well I guess since the first game went under.


I may edit this post like I usually do, or I may keep Sunday separate. Doesn't matter either way.


System Plays:
None this week.





2022 Regular Season
37-35 Plays, 16-19 Leans, 4-3 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays

2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans

2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).

2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans

2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans

2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs

[recovering77]

I guess I'll keep Sunday separate.

Plays:

Philly -8.5 (W3) at Chicago (L4). Despite the records, I think the line is too high considering how well Justin Fields has played the last month or so. Philly would be giving 2 TDs if they were home. This is not a good matchup for Fields though. And it hasn't been Fields that's been the problem, it's the defense that they traded away their 2 best players from. Not sure if I like the over better, but this could easily be a 40-3 type game. And Philly scored 48 by themselves last week, so a total of 48.5 actually may seem kinda low. Could be a complete blowout, or Philly could stumble into a cover while they try to run the clock out. Either way I like the Eagles.

Not playing the total, but the more I think about this game, the more I lean towards the 40-3 type outcome. It would be an absolute travesty if Philly wasn't able to put up at least 28 points on the Bears defense. I think Philly gets to 38 or 40. That means Chicago only has to put up 10 pts or so to hit that over. And Chicago at times has been putting up 24-30 pts a game. With a total set at only 48.5, it really leads me to believe that Chicago won't even score. 38-3 or 40-7 is my prediction here. Philly covers easily, and it's not close.


Pittsburgh +3 (L1) at Carolina (W4). Carolina has won 3 in a row at home, covered 4 in a row and 5 of 6. Mostly behind solid defense and a productive run game. Kenny Pickett is out, so it'll be either Trubisky or Rudolph. Tomlin isn't going to announce the starter til Saturday. Either way, I think I like Pittsburgh in a really, really nasty defensive battle. I think Mason Rudolph will get the nod just out of courtesy for being with the organization for so long. He'll probably be gone after this season. He re-signed thinking he would be the starter, yet with 4 games to go, I don't think he's even taken a snap yet. Only fair to let him start one meaningless game as far as the Steelers are concerned.

Tomlin named Trubisky the starter, so I was wrong about that. I guess Tomlin owes Trubisky a chance to showcase as well. And Trubisky is the better quarterback. Rudolph's only start last season I believe he was the first person to not beat Detroit. I still like the play.


NY Jets +1 (W1) vs. Detroit (W6). Detroit's hot play continues, but that was mainly against some pretty bad defenses, mixed in with some offenses that are a wreck. A matchup of a couple of playoff bubble teams. I remember last time Zach Wilson came back to start everyone faded the heck out of him, and he beat Pittsburgh. Detroit's defense has really stepped up as of late, but they're still one of the worst in the league. They let Bailey Zappe kill them running the ball and throwing screens. And Detroit hasn't been good on the road.

Detroit would be -7 if they were at home, which is a pretty big line. But they have been hot, and getting a pickem against Zach Wilson is probably enticing.


LA Chargers (U2) / Tennessee (O2) OVER 46.5. Gonna give it another go on the over in the Chargers game. Tennessee is very bad vs. the pass, and the Chargers are very bad against the run. Good type of game for offenses. I'll need to look a little closer as the line does seem a bit low, but that's probably because Tannehill doesn't put up a ton of numbers. But he's proven that he can if he needs to.


Weak Leans:

I'm realizing now that I probably picked the wrong combo, but I threw these 2 plays into a parlay, so I'm gonna go with them.

Denver -1.5 (W2) vs. Arizona (L1). It's a symmetry type play cuz I'm going opposite on the next game down. Brett Rypien isn't very good. In fact, he's actually very bad, but I did check out his game log and he is capable of putting up some numbers in the right matchup. Arizona does have some defensive playmakers, but they're a poor defense overall. Losing late to the Jets earlier this season isn't anything to knock someone for. The Jets defense is forreal. Denver just needs to run the ball effectively to stay in the game.

New England +1.5 (W1) at LV Raiders (L1). I actually do think this is a bad pick now that I'm looking at it. The Raiders are fresh off that embarassing meltdown on TNF from Baker, and New England's defense showed up against the Cardinals on Monday. With the Miami loss, a New England win would really put pressure on the Dolphins to finish out the year strong to make the playoffs, which I think Miami will do.

Like I said, it's probably a bad pick, but I already put it in so I'm listing it here. I actually do like the Raiders here.

Dallas -4.5 (L1) at Jacksonville (W1). The Jaguars are still a young team, and they haven't shown the ability to string together 2 good performances in a row since earlier in the season. The Jags could not have looked any better last week on both sides of the ball. Dallas had one of the worst performances imaginable. I think Dallas wins going away like 37-14 or something.

It'll make that Philly/Dallas game next week look even juicier when both Dallas and Philly come in after blowout victories.

I also have a feeling at New Orleans against Atlanta, but I'm not gonna let the Payton-less Saints burn me again. This Ridder guy is suppose to be pretty decent, so I'm surprised to see the Saints giving the hook here. No play Saints.

[recovering77]

Sorry for the late post.

add play miami +7

[recovering77]

Plays and leans finalized in post #2. No changes from a couple of days ago on the plays, but I did add 3 leans.

I also have a feeling about Argentina tomorrow for the world cup, so I threw a straight bet on them. Vamos Argentina!

[recovering77]

I’m flipping my 2 leans.

arizona +1.5
lv raiders -1.5

seeing some things that made me change it.