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Had a pretty good week last week, but went pretty hard on New Orleans ML and got my heart absolutely ripped out on that blown lead. I guarantee Sean Payton doesn't lose that game. What boneheaded coaching decisions. I'm so disheartened that I may not even play this week, but I wanted to at least get the "system play" out there.
Last week 5-2 Plays, 2-0 Leans, 1-0 System Plays. Back over .500 for plays this season.
Possibles:
Baltimore +1.5 (L3) at Pittsburgh (W2). As a fan of football, I really like Baltimore in this spot. The Baltimore NeverCovers, at a Pittsburgh team that's coming off two SU wins for the first time this year. We've got Huntley in for Lamar this week, and I think he will play well enough not to rush the franchise QB back. Huntley is not that much of a downgrade to Lamar, and the way better value contract wise. We saw him last year, and he was not only competent, but clutch. He had Baltimore in every game last season. And I'll likely be on him next week against the Browns as well.
Houston +17.5 (L4) at Dallas (W1). I like this pick much more than I should. Kyle Allen has looked way worse than I anticipated, but it's a great spot to take Houston. I remember last year when Dallas destroyed Washington on Sunday Night, they ended up losing SU to Arizona giving them their only win in like the last 4-5 games I think the following game. They destroy Philly in Week 18, only to go on and lose SU to the Niners in the playoffs. Earlier this year, they beat Chicago by 20, then lost SU to Green Bay the next week. They beat Minnesota 40-3, then played a close one with the Giants.
Bottom line is Dallas does not follow up blowout wins with good performances afterwards. And we've got the Houston Texans coming in off two blowouts against Miami and Cleveland where Watson played awful, but the defense came through with a couple of scores. And not only that, but they will be missing their top 2 wideouts in Cooks and Collins. If Dallas did that to Matt Ryan, Michael Pittman, and Jonathan Taylor last week, what are they gonna do to the lowly Texans? Probably win by 7-8 is the likely answer.
Davis Mills has been announced the starter for this game. They've seen enough of Kyle Allen turning the ball over. They'd rather just punt the ball the whole game instead.
Jacksonville +3.5 (L1) at Tenn (L2). I'm quite embarrassed about the Jacksonville pick last week. Absolutely horrible spot to take them off the dramatic win against Baltimore. Tennessee has lost a couple of a row SU and ATS after reeling off those 8 wins in a row, albeit it against two good teams (Philly and Cincinnati). The line is so low that I wonder if they're factoring in at all that Trevor Lawrence is injured and hasn't practiced much at all this week. This is a similar type game to the Seattle game which is the System Play this week. So would be good symmetry if Jacksonville covered.
LA Chargers (U1) / Miami (O1) OVER 53.5. A bit of a square one, but the line is right. It's the highest total of the week. I'll take the over with Miami's swiss cheese defense when in doubt. Chargers are coming off an under as well.
Seattle -3.5 (L3) vs. Carolina (W3). I don't like this pick personally. But considering it's a high consensus pick, it's one of the better ones. Seattle is losers of 3 in a row ATS after looking pretty bad against TB in Europe, losing to the Raiders, and have to orchestrate a game winning drive against the LA Rams with Woolford. Carolina come in winners of 3 in a row after the spread, including the one game that Baker started before he left. Even considering all that, the line is still too low IMO. Seattle's lines have been a bit off this season, but not like the Giants, Jets, and Broncos.
I'm going to go ahead and throw this one in as a play. The line is low, but Carolina has covered 5 out of 6 and are getting the hook against a team people still don't believe in. And if I'm a believe in the system, I need to play it every week.
Leans:
Denver +9.5 (W1) vs. KC Chiefs (L3). It's too late for Denver to turnaround their season, but Wilson needs to start showing improvement this season, so next season they can make a push for the playoffs. Denver lost in a heatbreaker last week,and Chiefs lost at Cincy who have owned them lately pretty much. The Chiefs' glaring weakness is their inability to stop the run. They're not quite as bad as the chargers, but they let Cincy's backup RB go over 100 on them last week. Denver is down to their 3rd string RB, but if the Defense can play as well as they have played most of the season, this should be a close one.
Detroit -1.5 (W5) vs. Minnesota (W2). Here we go with the streaky lions again against the Vikings and their fishy lines every week. Not really too big of a fan of this pick, but I did throw it in a parlay so it'll make it as a lean this week. I have some work to do if I want to get my leans about .500 by the end of the season.
System Plays (4-2 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays):
Seattle -3.5 (L3) vs. Carolina (W3). I don't like this pick personally, so I'm not going to play it. But considering it's a high consensus pick, it's one of the better ones. Seattle is losers of 3 in a row ATS after looking pretty bad against TB in Europe, losing to the Raiders, and have to orchestrate a game winning drive against the LA Rams with Woolford. Carolina come in winners of 3 in a row after the spread, including the one game that Baker started before he left. Even considering all that, the line is still too low IMO. Seattle's lines have been a bit off this season, but not like the Giants, Jets, and Broncos.
2022 Regular Season
34-33 Plays, 14-19 Leans, 4-2 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
Last week 5-2 Plays, 2-0 Leans, 1-0 System Plays. Back over .500 for plays this season.
Possibles:
Baltimore +1.5 (L3) at Pittsburgh (W2). As a fan of football, I really like Baltimore in this spot. The Baltimore NeverCovers, at a Pittsburgh team that's coming off two SU wins for the first time this year. We've got Huntley in for Lamar this week, and I think he will play well enough not to rush the franchise QB back. Huntley is not that much of a downgrade to Lamar, and the way better value contract wise. We saw him last year, and he was not only competent, but clutch. He had Baltimore in every game last season. And I'll likely be on him next week against the Browns as well.
Houston +17.5 (L4) at Dallas (W1). I like this pick much more than I should. Kyle Allen has looked way worse than I anticipated, but it's a great spot to take Houston. I remember last year when Dallas destroyed Washington on Sunday Night, they ended up losing SU to Arizona giving them their only win in like the last 4-5 games I think the following game. They destroy Philly in Week 18, only to go on and lose SU to the Niners in the playoffs. Earlier this year, they beat Chicago by 20, then lost SU to Green Bay the next week. They beat Minnesota 40-3, then played a close one with the Giants.
Bottom line is Dallas does not follow up blowout wins with good performances afterwards. And we've got the Houston Texans coming in off two blowouts against Miami and Cleveland where Watson played awful, but the defense came through with a couple of scores. And not only that, but they will be missing their top 2 wideouts in Cooks and Collins. If Dallas did that to Matt Ryan, Michael Pittman, and Jonathan Taylor last week, what are they gonna do to the lowly Texans? Probably win by 7-8 is the likely answer.
Davis Mills has been announced the starter for this game. They've seen enough of Kyle Allen turning the ball over. They'd rather just punt the ball the whole game instead.
Jacksonville +3.5 (L1) at Tenn (L2). I'm quite embarrassed about the Jacksonville pick last week. Absolutely horrible spot to take them off the dramatic win against Baltimore. Tennessee has lost a couple of a row SU and ATS after reeling off those 8 wins in a row, albeit it against two good teams (Philly and Cincinnati). The line is so low that I wonder if they're factoring in at all that Trevor Lawrence is injured and hasn't practiced much at all this week. This is a similar type game to the Seattle game which is the System Play this week. So would be good symmetry if Jacksonville covered.
LA Chargers (U1) / Miami (O1) OVER 53.5. A bit of a square one, but the line is right. It's the highest total of the week. I'll take the over with Miami's swiss cheese defense when in doubt. Chargers are coming off an under as well.
Seattle -3.5 (L3) vs. Carolina (W3). I don't like this pick personally. But considering it's a high consensus pick, it's one of the better ones. Seattle is losers of 3 in a row ATS after looking pretty bad against TB in Europe, losing to the Raiders, and have to orchestrate a game winning drive against the LA Rams with Woolford. Carolina come in winners of 3 in a row after the spread, including the one game that Baker started before he left. Even considering all that, the line is still too low IMO. Seattle's lines have been a bit off this season, but not like the Giants, Jets, and Broncos.
I'm going to go ahead and throw this one in as a play. The line is low, but Carolina has covered 5 out of 6 and are getting the hook against a team people still don't believe in. And if I'm a believe in the system, I need to play it every week.
Leans:
Denver +9.5 (W1) vs. KC Chiefs (L3). It's too late for Denver to turnaround their season, but Wilson needs to start showing improvement this season, so next season they can make a push for the playoffs. Denver lost in a heatbreaker last week,and Chiefs lost at Cincy who have owned them lately pretty much. The Chiefs' glaring weakness is their inability to stop the run. They're not quite as bad as the chargers, but they let Cincy's backup RB go over 100 on them last week. Denver is down to their 3rd string RB, but if the Defense can play as well as they have played most of the season, this should be a close one.
Detroit -1.5 (W5) vs. Minnesota (W2). Here we go with the streaky lions again against the Vikings and their fishy lines every week. Not really too big of a fan of this pick, but I did throw it in a parlay so it'll make it as a lean this week. I have some work to do if I want to get my leans about .500 by the end of the season.
System Plays (4-2 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays):
Seattle -3.5 (L3) vs. Carolina (W3). I don't like this pick personally, so I'm not going to play it. But considering it's a high consensus pick, it's one of the better ones. Seattle is losers of 3 in a row ATS after looking pretty bad against TB in Europe, losing to the Raiders, and have to orchestrate a game winning drive against the LA Rams with Woolford. Carolina come in winners of 3 in a row after the spread, including the one game that Baker started before he left. Even considering all that, the line is still too low IMO. Seattle's lines have been a bit off this season, but not like the Giants, Jets, and Broncos.
2022 Regular Season
34-33 Plays, 14-19 Leans, 4-2 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs