Week 13 Notes

[recovering77]

Feeling much better about the games this week than last week.

Last Week: 3-5 Plays, Leans 1-1

Next Week Byes: Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, Indy, New Orleans, Washington


Notes:


Jacksonville +1.5 (W1) at Detroit (W4). This is a tough game as we have Detroit playing good ball as of late, covering 4 games in a row, and Jacksonville fresh off the upset of Baltimore last week. Jacksonville games have been a bit odd at times this year as well. Vegas is giving them a tad bit more credit than in years past. But Detroit really should be giving -2.5 or 3 in this case. Same record, Detroit just won 3 in a row, and much better ATS record this season. It surprised me that this is a high consensus game this week, but I guess it'll take a bit more winning for Jacksonville to shake off the stigma of being a losing organization.

Washington -2.5 (W3) at NY Giants (W1). Heinicke 6-1 as a starter and 6-0-1 ATS so far. I hate these confusing Giants lines every week though. Always way off. The Giants should be the ones giving the -2.5 or even 3 in this scenario. But maybe Vegas is enticing you to pick Washington to just win despite being on nearly a 7 game winning streak. I'll look into this one some more, but Washington is the lean for now.

I think I'm going to switch this play to the Giants for now. Washington's defense has come up big a couple of times during this streak, but they really do let their opponents rack up yards and move the ball. And the Giants have been successful in this series lately, with Daniel Jones at QB.

Note: Daniel Bellinger is coming back from a fractured eye socket a month ago. He's a 4th round pick with speed at the tight end position, and was pretty productive prior to the injury. It gives the Giants a receiving weapon that they're short on. And usually I would take the ML when the line is 2.5, but I really think the points cuz matter in this one. (C)


Kansas City -2.5 (W1) at Cincinnati (W3). My ATS site is showing conflicting info on the KC cover last week, but they covered. They got the push if you put it in really late. Cincinnati has taken the last two games SU against KC. The Chiefs have been probably the best team in the league up to this point, but Cincy has won 7 of their last 9, so I feel like they should be pickem here at worst, and more like a -1. Cincy is coming off a big win at Tenn, while KC cruised to victory against a Rams team missing everyone. I'm trying to be symmetrical with this game and Washington. Just my OCD taking over. Should be a good one though. (C)


Philly -4.5 (W1) vs. Tenn (L1). Full system play. Not a game that would catch my eye. The Titans had one of the most surprising covering streaks in recent years that just ended last week after 8 straight covers. Line seems about fair, to maybe a point too high. With Tenn's defense they really shouldn't be getting more than 3 and the hook really. Especially since Philly has looked extremely human for the past 4 months. (a closer game against the Texans than it should have been, a loss to Washington, a shoulda have been loss to Indy, and the defense letting Green Bay score 33 on them, including a Jordan Love TD pass.) Apparently this line opened at 6 on Monday and has already been bet down.


San Francisco (W2) ML vs Miami (W2). Shanahan vs. his disciple in Mike McDaniel. I originally typed Miami for this play. It just feels like San Fran never covers when the line is overpriced. But taking Tua at +172 on that ML seems kinda like a gift. Two of the hottest teams in football, and it's really a coin flip how the game could go, and I see too much value on the dog in this one. San Fran has a very competent offense against Miami's horrid defense, but Miami really on a tear offensively lately. Jimmy G is a bit banged up, but so are Miami's running backs. Will be interesting how this game plays out. Lean the favorite for now.

This game is really intriguing as they both have the same motivations. They're both clinging to a playoff spot and are one game up/down in the division.

Line is up to 4.5 now, yet the ML hasn't budged. So as I suspected, if you're taking Miami in this one, you're taking the ML cuz there's so much value there. I'm probably moving this to a lean, cuz I think Vegas could even out a Miami cover with all these ML bets coming in.

I'll throw this one in a parlay. The line is up to 5.5 now with the ML at +195.


New Orleans +3.5 (L1) at Tampa Bay (L1). New Orleans coming off getting blanked at San Fran and Tampa coming off a loss against the Browns. This is rematch of week 2. I'm still very bitter about that game. New Orleans had them, but Jameis was so inept that he couldn't score the entire game. It was 3-3 Saints into the 4th quarter. The Saints were inside the 10 about to go up a TD until Mark Ingraham fumbled. Then Tampa's offense woke up, and Jameis had to force the ball since he was down for the first time in the game.

New Orleans' offense is much more competent now with Andy Dalton at the helm. And they have owned this matchup as of late.


Leans:

Denver +9.5 (L3) at Baltimore (L2). Baltimore never covers, and I just feel like it's a good spot to take Denver here. This may be the first time this whole season that Denver is not getting any credit for their Russell Wilson acquisition. That along with frustrations really boiling over last week with that defensive player yelling at Wilson to "Let's Go!" Hopefully I'm not late to the fading Baltimore party, but they never freakin cover and I'll jump in this time.

Minnesota -3 (W1) vs. NY Jets (W1): Yeah I know it's a short line, but Minnesota, NY Jets, and NY Giants have had short lines the whole season. I liked Mike White last week, even though I didn't list it anywhere. He did the same thing last year. Came in and beat Cincy with a great stat line. All of a sudden the media thinks he's the starter going forward. Last year Mike White actually played pretty well in the following game, but he got hurt. Then he played Buffalo and threw 4 picks and that was the end of him. I don't think he pulls a Heinicke and can keep this going personally.


No Plays:
Houston +7 (L3) (U3) vs. Cleveland (W1) (U1) or Over 46.5. Not sure if I will play both or not, but I really like the over in this game. The line is a bit high considering how poorly Watson played in the preseason and he hasnt played in 2 years. But Cleveland has some pretty bad defense. I think it's a major upgrade going to Kyle Allen for the Texans. They've got a couple of decent receivers in Nico Collins and Brandon Cooks, and Pierce who has had a couple of down games in a row. I was looking into Allen for fantasy football purposes, and he's shown that he can hit the #1 target and be successful doing it. My only fear is that Watson comes out completely flat and this goes way under because of him. The main play is the over right now, but I may switch to Houston later this weekend. There's really no data to go by. But Cleveland should have success with Chubb on the ground against Houston's defense. Cleveland is coming off that emotional win last week against Tampa Bay, giving Brissett a well deserved send off as the starter.

I completely forgot it's Watson playing against his former team. So the line does seem a bit high considering the Texans have all the motivation in the world this week. I don't care that Houston is 1-9-1. Cleveland is 4-7 with a QB that hasn't played in 2 years. He's been practicing for several weeks now though.

I'm pulling this game off the board for now because there's too many unknowns for me to feel comfortable at this point. I think it's more likely now that one or both teams look like crap in this one.

Cleveland is giving a full 7 on the road. Meaning if they were at home they would be giving double digits. Miami was giving double digits at home last week. Is Cleveland anywhere near Miami's level with such a big question at QB? I don't think so. So Cleveland should win going away, but this situation is so rare. When does a team let their franchise QB go in their absolute prime? Never. And when does a franchise QB take their first real snap in week 13? Probably never will happen again.

No play for now.



System Plays (3-2 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays):
Philly -4.5 (W1) vs. Tenn (L1). Full system play. Not a game that would catch my eye. The Titans had one of the most surprising covering streaks in recent years that just ended last week after 8 straight covers. Line seems about fair, to maybe a point too high. With Tenn's defense they really shouldn't be getting more than 3 and the hook really. Especially since Philly has looked extremely human for the past 4 months. (a closer game against the Texans than it should have been, a loss to Washington, a shoulda have been loss to Indy, and the defense letting Green Bay score 33 on them, including a Jordan Love TD pass.) Apparently this line opened at 6 on Monday and has already been bet down.




2022 Regular Season
29-31 Plays, 12-19 Leans, 3-2 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays

2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans

2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).

2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans

2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans

2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs

[Daws1089]

I’m pretty sure that Kc line was -16.5 last week at a lot of shops. Pinnacle for sure.

[recovering77]

I’m pretty sure that Kc line was -16.5 last week at a lot of shops. Pinnacle for sure.

I was using one of the apps. I could have sworn it was 15.5 for most of the week. It was 15.5 a little before 1. It went to 16 a little before 4. But that's tricky.

Using another site for line movements. Looks like it opened at 14 that Monday, then it was 15.5 by Wednesday, and it moved late on some, but not every book.

[Daws1089]

What is the criteria for the system?

also, the 33 points the eagles gave up is misleading. The offense turned the ball over giving the defense no chance. Also the eagles special teams was horrendous. GB had huge returns all game so I’m not putting those 33 on the defense. Sure their run D is suspect, but as you said, the eagles are human but very capable of covering this line.

[recovering77]

What is the criteria for the system?

also, the 33 points the eagles gave up is misleading. The offense turned the ball over giving the defense no chance. Also the eagles special teams was horrendous. GB had huge returns all game so I’m not putting those 33 on the defense. Sure their run D is suspect, but as you said, the eagles are human but very capable of covering this line.

The system is just a fade of someone's picks. It has nothing to do with anything else. Sometimes I don't even play it, though I've regretted it afterwards. I only took Minnesota a couple of weeks ago against Dallas cuz of the system and it let me down.

I discovered the system last season. It did very well, so I decided to keep track of it weekly this season. So far pretty good. Though sometimes it's unclear when a play is a "system" play. But I'm not disclosing too much more .

[recovering77]

Adding:

Play:

Dallas/Indy OVER 44.5. The props are telling me there's gonna be a lot of passing this game. And Indy has played primetime twice and it has gone under twice. Third time is the charm.

[recovering77]

Nice finish to the day. During the early part of the beatdown Detroit was giving Jacksonville, I was able to grab Denver at a decent line to make up for the worst pick on the board.

At 4 I took San Francisco. I was worried at first after the injury, but Miami's defense really is horrid. Trap game with basically a pickem line live after Jimmy G was carted off the field.

Capped the night off with the over on SNF that I posted a little before kickoff.


My Monday night play is already written up. I like the Saints +3.5 in the revenge spot. I also think it's a good spot to take the money line as well at +150. That's around where a ML should be for a +3.5. When I made the original post, San Fran was -3.5 and the Miami ML was +172 which was really high.

I was discussing it with a friend, and it's a good probability spot to take the ML.

There was only one underdog that won SU this week - Cincinnati, and they were only +2.5. That's very unusual for all the favorites to win outright like that.

My friend asked me "how many dogs won outright last week?" So I actually went back and looked.

Week 12: 6
Week 11: 2
Week 10: 8
Week 9: 5
Week 8: 4


And I believe I've heard that 80% of the time, the team that covers will also win the game or something. It mainly has to do with favorites rather than dogs, but you get the picture.