Week 12 Starters

**recovering77** · 11-26-2022, 01:32 AM

Well, that's another reminder to not defer from the basics. Never bet against a team that got blown out the week before, especially against on a team that won last week, and especially with a coach that I've been praising all season. I dunno why I ever bet against Mike Mcdaniel and Kevin O'Connell. I've been saying since week 1, the Shanahan coaching tree is a real thing. /End rant

Just like a couple of weeks ago, this looks like a tough week. All home dogs. And a lot of the usual wonky lines for the teams that Vegas thinks aren't the real deal, and for teams that continue to lose, but Vegas gives credit to.

Week 13 Byes: Arizona, Carolina

Ran out of time. Not expecting too much out of these picks. But it's all for fun.

Plays:

LA Rams (L3, P1) +15.5 at Kansas City (L1). I'm showing a push for KC on the JAX game, but I'm counting that one as a win. I don't remember it being 10 ever unless it came really late. This game caught my eye because I remember either Sunday or Thursday Fox talking about KC/LAR being America's Game of the Week. That means it's gonna be the afternoon primetime game for most markets. I wondered why they didn't make an excuse to flex out of it somehow. So last week America's game of the week was Dallas/Minn which was a total beatdown and they switched games really early for that one. I really don't think the NFL wants that to happen two weeks in a row. So that means it's either gonna be a relatively close game, or it's gonna be a high scoring one where KC just puts on a show. But that's what the Cowboys did last week, and that obviously was no fun.

We've got the Rams not only down Kupp again, but also down Stafford as well. So we've got Wolford again, who already lost his first start a couple of weeks ago 27-17 against the cardinals at home. The Chiefs are relatively healthy, but they will be down Toney and Clyde Edwards Helaire, but Pacheco has taken that spot anyways. They also get Juju back this week. Despite being one of the most explosive teams in the league, they've only won by more than 10 twice this season. Lean Rams just because I don't think the NFL wants another blowout.

The Rams are likely going with the third string this week. I'll bite.

Baltimore (U2) / Jacksonville (U5) UNDER 43.5. I think I saw a passing prop for Lawrence that seemed like it had too much value. I think this is either very low scoring, or it's a blowout where Jacksonville doesn't really score anything.

Washington (U1) / Atlanta (O1) UNDER 40.5. As a local, we tend to get these games like once a year. Where it's cold, rainy, and foggy. Not good for a dome team, or a team that likes to take shots downfield like Washington does.

San Fran -8.5 (W1) vs. New Orleans (W1). San Fran games are tough because Vegas has been giving them a lot of credit for years now. Only concern here is that San Fran looked great on both sides of the ball on Monday night. Jimmy Garrapolo had easily his best game of the season. New Orleans got the win at the cover last week though. But the fact that they look a Cooper Kuppless team with no run game put 20 pts on them and were losing at the half just shows how inconsistent they are on a weekly basis. Lean San Fran here.

Denver -1.5 (L1) at Carolina (W2). I guess Vegas will give Russell Wilson credit for the entire season. This line has already dropped from 2.5 earlier this week. Sam Darnold makes his return as the starter. The loser of 8 out of his last 9 games. Most of them were blowouts too. This doesn't really fit the backup QB system because Darnold has started for most of his career. Denver should have won last week, but Melvin Gordon keeps fumbling the ball, so they cut him. Problem solved. I like Denver in a close one sadly.

Leans:

Pittsburgh +2.5 (L1) at Indy (W2). Is Cincy's defense really that bad, or is Pittsburgh's offense really starting to come together? Jeff Saturday is 2-0 ATS in his first 2 games as head coach. I don't necessarily think he's doing anything special there. He just put Matt Ryan back in. They beat the Raiders who have no defense, and kept it close vs. Philly. Washington proved the week before that you can do that with a competent run game, and that's what the Colts have with fantasy #1 overall pick Jonathan Taylor. Unlike in the NFC, where it feels like every 3-7 team still has a shot at the playoffs, it's a different story in the AFC. The division is basically lost with them being 3 games behind the Titans, and them owning the tiebreak. I suppose they could stay in it for a few more weeks with a win. That's if the Chargers, Jets, and Patriots struggle ahead of them.

Well the Patriots lost on Thursday, and they have Buffalo next week and again before the end of the season, plus a rematch with the Dolphins. The Jets are finding their way without Breece Hall, and the Chargers are having a bad season. The Chargers have at AZ and LV, before playing Miami and Tenn. The Jets just benched their immature QB, and have Minnesota, Buffalo, and Detroit on deck after this week. The Colts are at Dallas next week, then a bye, then Minnesota, Chargers, and Giants, before finishing up against the Texans.

I guess Jeff Saturday does have narrow path to the playoffs, but he's gotta win this week. So maybe I'll flip my pick to the Colts. With that schedule, a loss here probably ends the season. I'm usually not nervous about giving 2.5, but I kinda am here. The colts have lost 17-16 twice, and tied once. Lean Colts ML for now.

Cincy -1 (W2) at Tennessee (W8). I just feel probability says Tenn will probably not cover in the next 2 games or so. Just a hunch.

System Plays:
None

Week 12 Starters

Week 12 Starters

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