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Good week last week, but not good enough. I'm debating starting this post now, because I'm looking at these games and I don't really see anything I like. I'm going to have to dig deep this week. These will be starter notes.
Last Week: 4-1 Plays, 1-2 Leans. 1-0 System Plays. Good old system hitting a good percentage again this year.
Last Week Byes: 1-1 (2 N/A because they played each other). Jacksonville lost by the hook, but I'm seeing +10 as the closing line in some places.
Next Week Byes: Arizona, Carolina
Plays:
Minnesota +1.5 (W1, P, W2) vs. Dallas (L1). Full System Play. Never has an 8-1 team been underdog I heard, especially at home. But that's what we have here. The vikings lost 4 in a row ATS before covering or tying the last 4. Dallas is off the loss in OT at Green Bay, and Minnesota is off that fluke win in OT at Buffalo. This is obviously one of those weird lines you see, but it's not all that different than how Vegas undervalues the NY Giants every single week. I don't really know how i feel about the pick, but I have said that Dallas has gotten point inflation since I can remember.
Denver -2.5 (L1) vs. LV Raiders (L3). Rematch of earlier in the season where the Raiders won 32-23 at home as a 2.5 pt favorite. The matchup of the two most disappointing teams in the league. The line is about right. The raiders won the last meeting, but have looked like crap for 3 weeks in a row. So the line is flipped because Denver is at home. In the last meeting, it kinda went back and forth, but the Raiders got a late TD to save the cover. Denver and LV both have not won a road game yet this whole season. Both 2-2 at home. Both 3-6 ATS. Both their seasons are basically over. The total was 45 last game and went way over, yet the total has been adjusted to 41 this time.
I lean the under, and the Raiders have not covered a game this season where the game went under yet. All 3 Denver covers the game went under. So I'll go with the home team getting revenge in this case.
LA Rams +2.5 (P1, L2) at New Orleans (L2). Breaking all my rules the past two weeks. Last week I bet on Green Bay and Tampa Bay even though I said I wouldn't bet on them again. I may do the same with the Saints this week. Is all the good will for the SB champion Rams gone at this point? If you're looking at using only this season, the line seems about right. Maybe even be a little low. We've got two teams in down seasons, with veteran QBs past their primes, with defenses that are good but not living up to their potential. This is the Rams first game without Cooper Kupp, who may be done for the season. So you've got Stafford with a bad elbow, coming off a concussion, missing his only good receiver, and with no run game. The Saints have not played well either, but other than Michael Thomas, they still have Olave and Kamara. This is the same team that shut out the Raiders at home 24-0 who have much more offensive power than the Rams do.
This line was at 4 a couple of days ago and has dropped to 3. I believe I read that Andy Dalton is very close to being benched for Jameis Winston. So this could be the last straw. I think I'm actually leaning towards the Rams at this point. But I'm curious if there is any SB winner inflation left with the Rams anymore.
I'm probably going to move one lean up in a few minutes. It'll be hard doing it on the phone. So I'm just leaving space.
Leans:
NY Jets +3.5 (W1) at New England (W2) - Both off bye weeks. Rematch of 3 weeks ago where New England won and covered as a 3 point road favorite 22-17, but the game didn't really feel that close. Breece Hall didn't even play in that game either. That's quite the line adjustment to only be giving 3 on at home this time. But it may be justified as the Jets played them pretty tough and the Jets are coming off that big upset of Buffalo, with a bye week sandwiched in between. New England has covered the last 4 meetings with reasonable lines in the post brady era. I could go either way with this game as well.
Kansas City -5 (W1) at LA Chargers (W2) - Rematch of the Thursday game where KC was a 4 point home favorite. KC won 27-24 with a total of 53.5. Total has been adjusted to 51.5. I see the line has been adjusted up in KC's favor, but this has been a really down year for the Chargers. They play pretty well as underdogs. I thought the San Fran line was way too high on SNF, and it was. The Chargers were never really in trouble of not covering last week. I need to look into this more because I could go either way.
Update: I'll likely go Chargers on this game or it might be a no play. People say the Steelers play really well as underdogs. That may be true, but in Justin Herbert's tenure I feel like they may play the best as underdogs of any team. The defense is too leaky to cover as favorites all the time, but as underdogs Herbert is able to keep it close with anyone. I understand the line movement as the Chargers are having a down year so far, and the Chiefs are playing at a high level. I was going to say the injuries to Mike Williams and Keenan Allen probably contributed to the line being so high. But Keenan Allen got in a full practice today, and Juju hasn't practiced yet all week after getting that concussion. So I was expecting the line to drop to at least 4.5, but it actually went up to 5.5, which gives me a pause.
Cincy -3.5 (W1) at Pittsburgh (W1). I'll probably lay off this game. I just wanted to make note that this is another rematch game from week one where Pittsburgh beat them as a 3.5 pt underdog in Cincy. But those were different teams. Cincy had their SB hangover, and Pittsburgh was starting Trubisky at that point. Cincy is also missing Jamar Chase this time. Cincy is off a bye after they throttled Carolina and Joe Mixon had 4 TDs that game. Total was 45 in the last meeting, and it went under. The line has been adjusted heavily to 40.5 now. Lean Cincy.
Baltimore -13 (W2) vs. Carolina (W1). I'd like to take Baltimore in this game. It seems a bit high for a team that seems to let every team stay in the game. I don't consider Baltimore to be a powerhouse, so the line should probably be more around 9.5-10 than 13.
System Plays (3-1), Half System Plays (2-0):
Minnesota +1.5 (W1, P, W2) vs. Dallas (L1). Full System Play. Never has an 8-1 team been underdog I heard, especially at home. But that's what we have here. The vikings lost 4 in a row ATS before covering or tying the last 4. Dallas is off the loss in OT at Green Bay, and Minnesota is off that fluke win in OT at Buffalo. This is obviously one of those weird lines you see, but it's not all that different than how Vegas undervalues the NY Giants every single week. I don't really know how i feel about the pick, but I have said that Dallas has gotten point inflation since I can remember.
2022 Regular Season
23-24 Plays, 10-15 Leans, 3-1 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
Last Week: 4-1 Plays, 1-2 Leans. 1-0 System Plays. Good old system hitting a good percentage again this year.
Last Week Byes: 1-1 (2 N/A because they played each other). Jacksonville lost by the hook, but I'm seeing +10 as the closing line in some places.
Next Week Byes: Arizona, Carolina
Plays:
Minnesota +1.5 (W1, P, W2) vs. Dallas (L1). Full System Play. Never has an 8-1 team been underdog I heard, especially at home. But that's what we have here. The vikings lost 4 in a row ATS before covering or tying the last 4. Dallas is off the loss in OT at Green Bay, and Minnesota is off that fluke win in OT at Buffalo. This is obviously one of those weird lines you see, but it's not all that different than how Vegas undervalues the NY Giants every single week. I don't really know how i feel about the pick, but I have said that Dallas has gotten point inflation since I can remember.
Denver -2.5 (L1) vs. LV Raiders (L3). Rematch of earlier in the season where the Raiders won 32-23 at home as a 2.5 pt favorite. The matchup of the two most disappointing teams in the league. The line is about right. The raiders won the last meeting, but have looked like crap for 3 weeks in a row. So the line is flipped because Denver is at home. In the last meeting, it kinda went back and forth, but the Raiders got a late TD to save the cover. Denver and LV both have not won a road game yet this whole season. Both 2-2 at home. Both 3-6 ATS. Both their seasons are basically over. The total was 45 last game and went way over, yet the total has been adjusted to 41 this time.
I lean the under, and the Raiders have not covered a game this season where the game went under yet. All 3 Denver covers the game went under. So I'll go with the home team getting revenge in this case.
LA Rams +2.5 (P1, L2) at New Orleans (L2). Breaking all my rules the past two weeks. Last week I bet on Green Bay and Tampa Bay even though I said I wouldn't bet on them again. I may do the same with the Saints this week. Is all the good will for the SB champion Rams gone at this point? If you're looking at using only this season, the line seems about right. Maybe even be a little low. We've got two teams in down seasons, with veteran QBs past their primes, with defenses that are good but not living up to their potential. This is the Rams first game without Cooper Kupp, who may be done for the season. So you've got Stafford with a bad elbow, coming off a concussion, missing his only good receiver, and with no run game. The Saints have not played well either, but other than Michael Thomas, they still have Olave and Kamara. This is the same team that shut out the Raiders at home 24-0 who have much more offensive power than the Rams do.
This line was at 4 a couple of days ago and has dropped to 3. I believe I read that Andy Dalton is very close to being benched for Jameis Winston. So this could be the last straw. I think I'm actually leaning towards the Rams at this point. But I'm curious if there is any SB winner inflation left with the Rams anymore.
I'm probably going to move one lean up in a few minutes. It'll be hard doing it on the phone. So I'm just leaving space.
Leans:
NY Jets +3.5 (W1) at New England (W2) - Both off bye weeks. Rematch of 3 weeks ago where New England won and covered as a 3 point road favorite 22-17, but the game didn't really feel that close. Breece Hall didn't even play in that game either. That's quite the line adjustment to only be giving 3 on at home this time. But it may be justified as the Jets played them pretty tough and the Jets are coming off that big upset of Buffalo, with a bye week sandwiched in between. New England has covered the last 4 meetings with reasonable lines in the post brady era. I could go either way with this game as well.
Kansas City -5 (W1) at LA Chargers (W2) - Rematch of the Thursday game where KC was a 4 point home favorite. KC won 27-24 with a total of 53.5. Total has been adjusted to 51.5. I see the line has been adjusted up in KC's favor, but this has been a really down year for the Chargers. They play pretty well as underdogs. I thought the San Fran line was way too high on SNF, and it was. The Chargers were never really in trouble of not covering last week. I need to look into this more because I could go either way.
Update: I'll likely go Chargers on this game or it might be a no play. People say the Steelers play really well as underdogs. That may be true, but in Justin Herbert's tenure I feel like they may play the best as underdogs of any team. The defense is too leaky to cover as favorites all the time, but as underdogs Herbert is able to keep it close with anyone. I understand the line movement as the Chargers are having a down year so far, and the Chiefs are playing at a high level. I was going to say the injuries to Mike Williams and Keenan Allen probably contributed to the line being so high. But Keenan Allen got in a full practice today, and Juju hasn't practiced yet all week after getting that concussion. So I was expecting the line to drop to at least 4.5, but it actually went up to 5.5, which gives me a pause.
Cincy -3.5 (W1) at Pittsburgh (W1). I'll probably lay off this game. I just wanted to make note that this is another rematch game from week one where Pittsburgh beat them as a 3.5 pt underdog in Cincy. But those were different teams. Cincy had their SB hangover, and Pittsburgh was starting Trubisky at that point. Cincy is also missing Jamar Chase this time. Cincy is off a bye after they throttled Carolina and Joe Mixon had 4 TDs that game. Total was 45 in the last meeting, and it went under. The line has been adjusted heavily to 40.5 now. Lean Cincy.
Baltimore -13 (W2) vs. Carolina (W1). I'd like to take Baltimore in this game. It seems a bit high for a team that seems to let every team stay in the game. I don't consider Baltimore to be a powerhouse, so the line should probably be more around 9.5-10 than 13.
System Plays (3-1), Half System Plays (2-0):
Minnesota +1.5 (W1, P, W2) vs. Dallas (L1). Full System Play. Never has an 8-1 team been underdog I heard, especially at home. But that's what we have here. The vikings lost 4 in a row ATS before covering or tying the last 4. Dallas is off the loss in OT at Green Bay, and Minnesota is off that fluke win in OT at Buffalo. This is obviously one of those weird lines you see, but it's not all that different than how Vegas undervalues the NY Giants every single week. I don't really know how i feel about the pick, but I have said that Dallas has gotten point inflation since I can remember.
2022 Regular Season
23-24 Plays, 10-15 Leans, 3-1 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
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