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We're past half way through the season and I'm still having issues getting my footing. Starting this post really early and working on the card while I have my thoughts fresh.
Last week 4-3 Plays. 1-3 Leans. 1-0 System Plays
The totals were speaking to me this week, so I'm probably going to go heavy on those. Edit: The totals were speaking to me, but in the end I went with mostly sides as usual.
Making a note here of teams that are on a bye next week: Baltimore, Cincinnati, New England, NY Jets.
Plays:
Arizona -2 (L1) vs. Seattle (W3). Rematch of 3 weeks ago when Seattle won 19-9 as a 2.5 pt home favorite. The line has only been adjusted half a point, and when it's under the 3s, that's negligible IMO. As I said before, Arizona seems to cover every other game, and this is a rematch with a similar line. This system did horribly last year, but I'm going to continue with it to test it out this year. Also, I like Arizona for various reasons.
Green Bay (U1) / Detroit (O1) OVER 49.5. Same reason I liked the over in Detroit last week. Detroit is a different team at home. With a healthy St. Brown and a a healthier Deandre Swift, I think Detroit proves that they haven't quit on the season after trading away Hockensen. Although Aaron Rodgers is probably very upset GB didn't pick up a receiver at the trade deadline, Rodgers has to make due with what he has and it shouldn't be difficult to put up at least in the mid to high 20s against that Detroit defense. This would normally feel like a squarish play, but Detroit's offense has not been clicking like they were in the beginning of the year, and Green Bay's offense still hasn't really shown up yet, and half the season is over.
LA Chargers -2.5 (L2) at Atlanta (L2). How are the chargers giving 3 on the road here? They're playing against a team that started the season 6-0 ATS, and have just as many wins as them. They're coming off a bye week, but I still don't see how that should constitute giving a full 3 on the road. The Chargers are already down Keenan Allen, and they'll also be down Mike Williams this week. The Falcons are getting back Cordaralle Patterson. Alanta should be the ones giving the -2.5 to 3. Bare minimum -1 here. The only receiver the Chargers have left is Josh Palmer who is coming off concussion protocol.
I'm giving this a second thought before I move it up to a play. The Chargers are kinda a public team, which would make some sense as to why they're favored. One could argue that they are in the second tier behind Buffalo and KC. Atlanta was 6-0 ATS to start the year, but they were big underdogs to fraud teams like the Rams and Bucs,
Baltimore -1.5 (W1) at New Orleans (W1). I would like this play a bit more if Baltimore didn't pull off the upset last week without key players. Andrews is listed as doubtful this week, and Bateman just went on season ending IR. Michael Thomas just went on IR as well for New Orleans, but he hasn't played for over a month, so that's not really a factor. Baltimore also has their bye week next week, and teams play pretty well going into those.
Buffalo (U5) / NY Jets (U3) UNDER 45.5. Rarely does an under show up in my plays, but I'm starting to like it a bit. Games with double digit sides tend to go under at a decent rate. I also feel like the Jets will surprise some a bit early. I'm thinking 7-3 or 10-3 at the half. Or maybe even tied. I'll give the Jets 13-14 pts in this game. That means Buffalo would have to score over 31 pts in order for it to go over. Buffalo is quietly 1-6 O/U this season, coming under the total 5 games in a row. The Jets are 3-5 O/U, with the last 3 games coming under the total.
The only pause I have is that the line opened at 47, which is pretty high for a jets defense that's played pretty well this season, and a Zach Wilson lead team. I could be completely wrong, and Buffalo could easily win 45-7.
Jets are on a bye next week. I think they'll put in a good effort. If Buffalo covers, it's late.
Leans:
Arizona (O2) / Seattle (U1) OVER 48.5. I'm starting to notice a trend here that Arizona seems to play well every other week. This is a rematch from 3 weeks ago when Seattle shut them down 19-9 on a total of 50.5, which is the same total here. The difference this time is that Arizona is coming off a loss, Seattle is coming off a win, and Arizona has Hopkins back.
The total has moved down 2 pts since I first wrote this, so I'm going to think about that some more.
No Plays:
LV Raiders -1.5 (L1) (U1) at Jacksonville (L5) (U2) Total 47.5. Third time is the charm as a -1.5 road favorite for the Raiders? Was leaning the over on this one as well. So I may switch this. I took the Raiders last week because I thought they would at least make it interesting in the division. They still can, but they really need to win out these next 3 at Jacksonville, vs. Indy, at Denver, at Seattle after that. So there is still time to salvage the season. Jacksonville has lost 5 in a row and ATS, but I think the Raiders getting blanked 24-0 is a good spot to take them. Not sure what happened last week. The Jags were buyers at the trade deadline, but they traded for someone that can't even play until next year. I think the Jags have lost all good will after the 2-1 start, then keeping it close against Philly.
I'm passing on the Raiders this week. I started to have this weird feeling that someone was getting fired this week. Though I would be very surprised if the Raiders fired Josh Mcdaniels like 9 games into his first season. Nobody is getting fired unless the Raiders lose and they put up no points again. Jacksonville's defense is due for a good game. So I pass.
Washington (U1) / Minnesota (O1) OVER 42.5. Heinicke didn't have a letdown last week after beating Green Bay. Kirk Cousins returns to his old team again. Going back and forth with either taking Washington or the over in this game. The total is a bit low, but it makes sense because Washington is 1-4 O/U in their last 5. Minnesota has allowed at least 22 points in 5 of their last 6 games, with the one time being against Miami's third string. Minnesota may be too much for Washington by the end, but we know Heinicke will be throwing deep if he needs to. Should lead to some quick points or some turnovers.
Passing on this game as well. The two teams with the best records in the NFC (Eagles and Vikings) I think are overrated. I do think Philly is better than Minnesota though. Heinicke's success is almost Tebow-like in that the defense steps up big time to allow him to win the game. Total seems kinda low for two teams that have competent quarterbacks and lots of weapons. I'll peek into the under, but the over is a no play for me now.
Buffalo -12.5 (L1) at NY Jets (L1). It was pretty inexplicable that Buffalo didn't cover against GB. I chalk it up to the GB coach intentionally trying to keep the score close so he doesn't lose the team. Doing things like not onside kicking down 10 with 5 mins left, that's the only explanation. Also, Josh Allen helped out with a couple of boneheaded mistakes. The thing that concerned me watching that game was that Green Bay obviously wanted to avoid throwing for the most part, and Buffalo allowed them to drive the field rushing 4 yards at a time. WIthout Breece Hall, I don't think Michael Carter is elite enough to run on Buffalo like GB did, and James Robinson is a shell of his former self unfortunately. I actually think the Jets may cover the first half in this one, but Josh Allen limits the mistakes in the second half that he can't make, and Buffalo wins by 2 TDs+ like they are suppose to.
I pass on Buffalo here. The Jets have their bye next week, and I think they'll put up a decent effort. I like the under more at this point.
System Plays (2-1) / Half System Plays (1-0):
No system plays this week, but I'm starting to count system plays that are close. LA Chargers are a half system play.
LA Chargers -2.5 (L2) at Atlanta (L2). How are the chargers giving 3 on the road here? They're playing against a team that started the season 6-0 ATS, and have just as many wins as them. They're coming off a bye week, but I still don't see how that should constitute giving a full 3 on the road. The Chargers are already down Keenan Allen, and they'll also be down Mike Williams this week. The Falcons are getting back Cordaralle Patterson. Alanta should be the ones giving the -2.5 to 3. Bare minimum -1 here. The only receiver the Chargers have left is Josh Palmer who is coming off concussion protocol.
Chicago +5 (L1) vs. Miami (W1). I've actually been eyeing Justin Fields for my fantasy team because Chicago's offense has picked up a bit over the last few weeks. The Bears were both buyers and sellers at the trade deadline. Trading away their leading tackler, but adding Claypool at WR. Miami went all in adding Bradley Chubb to the defense. Chicago is another team that tends to play well every other game, and i'm hoping the pattern continues here.
2022 Regular Season
16-22 Plays, 8-13 Leans, 2-1 System Plays, 1-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
Last week 4-3 Plays. 1-3 Leans. 1-0 System Plays
The totals were speaking to me this week, so I'm probably going to go heavy on those. Edit: The totals were speaking to me, but in the end I went with mostly sides as usual.
Making a note here of teams that are on a bye next week: Baltimore, Cincinnati, New England, NY Jets.
Plays:
Arizona -2 (L1) vs. Seattle (W3). Rematch of 3 weeks ago when Seattle won 19-9 as a 2.5 pt home favorite. The line has only been adjusted half a point, and when it's under the 3s, that's negligible IMO. As I said before, Arizona seems to cover every other game, and this is a rematch with a similar line. This system did horribly last year, but I'm going to continue with it to test it out this year. Also, I like Arizona for various reasons.
Green Bay (U1) / Detroit (O1) OVER 49.5. Same reason I liked the over in Detroit last week. Detroit is a different team at home. With a healthy St. Brown and a a healthier Deandre Swift, I think Detroit proves that they haven't quit on the season after trading away Hockensen. Although Aaron Rodgers is probably very upset GB didn't pick up a receiver at the trade deadline, Rodgers has to make due with what he has and it shouldn't be difficult to put up at least in the mid to high 20s against that Detroit defense. This would normally feel like a squarish play, but Detroit's offense has not been clicking like they were in the beginning of the year, and Green Bay's offense still hasn't really shown up yet, and half the season is over.
LA Chargers -2.5 (L2) at Atlanta (L2). How are the chargers giving 3 on the road here? They're playing against a team that started the season 6-0 ATS, and have just as many wins as them. They're coming off a bye week, but I still don't see how that should constitute giving a full 3 on the road. The Chargers are already down Keenan Allen, and they'll also be down Mike Williams this week. The Falcons are getting back Cordaralle Patterson. Alanta should be the ones giving the -2.5 to 3. Bare minimum -1 here. The only receiver the Chargers have left is Josh Palmer who is coming off concussion protocol.
I'm giving this a second thought before I move it up to a play. The Chargers are kinda a public team, which would make some sense as to why they're favored. One could argue that they are in the second tier behind Buffalo and KC. Atlanta was 6-0 ATS to start the year, but they were big underdogs to fraud teams like the Rams and Bucs,
Baltimore -1.5 (W1) at New Orleans (W1). I would like this play a bit more if Baltimore didn't pull off the upset last week without key players. Andrews is listed as doubtful this week, and Bateman just went on season ending IR. Michael Thomas just went on IR as well for New Orleans, but he hasn't played for over a month, so that's not really a factor. Baltimore also has their bye week next week, and teams play pretty well going into those.
Buffalo (U5) / NY Jets (U3) UNDER 45.5. Rarely does an under show up in my plays, but I'm starting to like it a bit. Games with double digit sides tend to go under at a decent rate. I also feel like the Jets will surprise some a bit early. I'm thinking 7-3 or 10-3 at the half. Or maybe even tied. I'll give the Jets 13-14 pts in this game. That means Buffalo would have to score over 31 pts in order for it to go over. Buffalo is quietly 1-6 O/U this season, coming under the total 5 games in a row. The Jets are 3-5 O/U, with the last 3 games coming under the total.
The only pause I have is that the line opened at 47, which is pretty high for a jets defense that's played pretty well this season, and a Zach Wilson lead team. I could be completely wrong, and Buffalo could easily win 45-7.
Jets are on a bye next week. I think they'll put in a good effort. If Buffalo covers, it's late.
Leans:
Arizona (O2) / Seattle (U1) OVER 48.5. I'm starting to notice a trend here that Arizona seems to play well every other week. This is a rematch from 3 weeks ago when Seattle shut them down 19-9 on a total of 50.5, which is the same total here. The difference this time is that Arizona is coming off a loss, Seattle is coming off a win, and Arizona has Hopkins back.
The total has moved down 2 pts since I first wrote this, so I'm going to think about that some more.
No Plays:
LV Raiders -1.5 (L1) (U1) at Jacksonville (L5) (U2) Total 47.5. Third time is the charm as a -1.5 road favorite for the Raiders? Was leaning the over on this one as well. So I may switch this. I took the Raiders last week because I thought they would at least make it interesting in the division. They still can, but they really need to win out these next 3 at Jacksonville, vs. Indy, at Denver, at Seattle after that. So there is still time to salvage the season. Jacksonville has lost 5 in a row and ATS, but I think the Raiders getting blanked 24-0 is a good spot to take them. Not sure what happened last week. The Jags were buyers at the trade deadline, but they traded for someone that can't even play until next year. I think the Jags have lost all good will after the 2-1 start, then keeping it close against Philly.
I'm passing on the Raiders this week. I started to have this weird feeling that someone was getting fired this week. Though I would be very surprised if the Raiders fired Josh Mcdaniels like 9 games into his first season. Nobody is getting fired unless the Raiders lose and they put up no points again. Jacksonville's defense is due for a good game. So I pass.
Washington (U1) / Minnesota (O1) OVER 42.5. Heinicke didn't have a letdown last week after beating Green Bay. Kirk Cousins returns to his old team again. Going back and forth with either taking Washington or the over in this game. The total is a bit low, but it makes sense because Washington is 1-4 O/U in their last 5. Minnesota has allowed at least 22 points in 5 of their last 6 games, with the one time being against Miami's third string. Minnesota may be too much for Washington by the end, but we know Heinicke will be throwing deep if he needs to. Should lead to some quick points or some turnovers.
Passing on this game as well. The two teams with the best records in the NFC (Eagles and Vikings) I think are overrated. I do think Philly is better than Minnesota though. Heinicke's success is almost Tebow-like in that the defense steps up big time to allow him to win the game. Total seems kinda low for two teams that have competent quarterbacks and lots of weapons. I'll peek into the under, but the over is a no play for me now.
Buffalo -12.5 (L1) at NY Jets (L1). It was pretty inexplicable that Buffalo didn't cover against GB. I chalk it up to the GB coach intentionally trying to keep the score close so he doesn't lose the team. Doing things like not onside kicking down 10 with 5 mins left, that's the only explanation. Also, Josh Allen helped out with a couple of boneheaded mistakes. The thing that concerned me watching that game was that Green Bay obviously wanted to avoid throwing for the most part, and Buffalo allowed them to drive the field rushing 4 yards at a time. WIthout Breece Hall, I don't think Michael Carter is elite enough to run on Buffalo like GB did, and James Robinson is a shell of his former self unfortunately. I actually think the Jets may cover the first half in this one, but Josh Allen limits the mistakes in the second half that he can't make, and Buffalo wins by 2 TDs+ like they are suppose to.
I pass on Buffalo here. The Jets have their bye next week, and I think they'll put up a decent effort. I like the under more at this point.
System Plays (2-1) / Half System Plays (1-0):
No system plays this week, but I'm starting to count system plays that are close. LA Chargers are a half system play.
LA Chargers -2.5 (L2) at Atlanta (L2). How are the chargers giving 3 on the road here? They're playing against a team that started the season 6-0 ATS, and have just as many wins as them. They're coming off a bye week, but I still don't see how that should constitute giving a full 3 on the road. The Chargers are already down Keenan Allen, and they'll also be down Mike Williams this week. The Falcons are getting back Cordaralle Patterson. Alanta should be the ones giving the -2.5 to 3. Bare minimum -1 here. The only receiver the Chargers have left is Josh Palmer who is coming off concussion protocol.
Chicago +5 (L1) vs. Miami (W1). I've actually been eyeing Justin Fields for my fantasy team because Chicago's offense has picked up a bit over the last few weeks. The Bears were both buyers and sellers at the trade deadline. Trading away their leading tackler, but adding Claypool at WR. Miami went all in adding Bradley Chubb to the defense. Chicago is another team that tends to play well every other game, and i'm hoping the pattern continues here.
2022 Regular Season
16-22 Plays, 8-13 Leans, 2-1 System Plays, 1-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs