Week 8 Notes

[recovering77]

Kinda speechless about how bad I've been doing the past month or so in the NFL. Hopefully last week was rock bottom. This is the worst season I've had since I started posting regularly on here. I think part of my problem is that I've been neglecting totals a bit. Plus all the new faces in new places. Here we go again.

Last week 0-4 Plays. 0-1 Leans. 3-0 No Plays LOL.


Plays:
I actually ran out of time, and I'm trying to catch up on the record anyways, so these are all plays.

Detroit / Miami OVER 51.5. Liking this play as both teams have played a pair of unders coming into this game. Tua is back for Miami, with a game and a win under his belt. Detroit returns home where they play much better after a pair of road games where they put up a total of 6 pts. I will be checking the status of Deandre Swift. Detroit hasn't been the same since he got hurt, but with him and St. Brown back I expect Detroit to be putting up points again like earlier in the season. Miami should be able to put up a couple of quick hitters with Tyreek Hill against that defense.

Dallas -9.5 (W1) vs. Chicago (W1). Funny, I think I only played Dallas one time when Cooper Rush was covering repeatedly. The Bears seem to play well every other game, and Monday could possibly be the highlight of their season with the stomping of New England in primetime. Philly has been the only team to really score on Dallas's defense. I expect a huge game from Tony Pollard who will be filling in for Zeke this week. I need to go back a bit and see how they do against running quarterbacks though.


Houston +2.5 (L1) vs. Tennessee (W4). Tennessee has really flown under the radar covering the last 4 games in a row after getting embarassed by Buffalo in primetime. They're probably in cruise control now for the division since Indy has given pulled Matt Ryan and they own the double tiebreak over them again this year. I saw a stat that Derrick Henry averages like 35 fantasy points against the Texans the last 3-4 meetings. Mainly a consensus fade here though.

Possible lookahead spot for Tennessee as well. Playing at KC next week. Line is out, and Tenn is +10.5 just like when they played at Buffalo.

New England -2.5 (L1) at NY Jets (W4). So many questions about why Mac Jones got the start and was pulled so early on Monday. Belichick put the controversy to rest pretty early this week. Mac is his guy and he's earned it. Again this week we have whacked out lines on the Jets and Giants who keep covering. The Jets have a lot of injuries, but I think it's a good week to take New England of that embarrassment on Monday. I like them here.


Indy -3 (L1) vs. Washington (W2). This line is puzzling because I believe last year when Wentz got hurt I read that the backup was really really bad. But I guess that was Eason not Ehlinger. But Ehlinger was on that team too, and the Colts preferred a Wentz with 2 sprained ankles than either of them. So it's odd to see the Colts giving the full 3 here with a backup QB, giving up on the season because they don't want to risk having to pay Matt Ryan, against a fan favorite (Heinicke) off a big win against Green Bay. The line did open at -4.5 when Matt Ryan was the assumed starter I believe.


Pittsburgh +10.5 (W2) at Philly (W1). Pittsburgh plays pretty well as big underdogs, and I'll take them here against Philly off a bye. I really don't think Philly is all that either. And it's also for some symmetry with the Dallas game.



Leans:
LV Raiders -1.5 (W3) at New Orleans (L2). This is normally a spot where I'd be all over the Saints. I've even taken Andy Dalton in and out of tthe QB spot for my fantasy team. The Raiders give up the most fantasy points in the league to QBs. I just feel like after a slow start, that a win here will really keep the Raiders season alive. They've got Jacksonville, Indy, and Denver coming up. All winnable games, but if they lost here they'd have to sweep the next 3 just to get back to .500.


LA Rams +1 (W1) vs. San Francisco (L2). All week I've been seeing that Deebo Samuel catch on TV from when SF pretty much had their way with the Rams on SNF. I don't like that the Rams are coming off a bye though. Bye weeks are weak excuses to take teams. They don't do any better, and in fact sometimes they do worse.

Denver (U3) / Jacksonville (U1) OVER 39.5. I feel like the NFL these Europe games tend to go over, and the NFL really likes that. Just a hunch. This could very well be a 3-0 game at the half.

Denver +2.5 (L1) vs. Jacksonville (L4) (Neutral). Jacksonville has been HORRIBLE as a favorite in the last 5-7 years or so. I've missed 2 opportunities to fade in the past month. I think I'll pull the trigger on Denver for this one though, with Russell Wilson's badly injured hamstring that he's rushing back to play with.



System Plays (2-1):
Miami -3.5 (L4) at Detroit (L3). This may not be a system play, but it's very, very close. I'm going to count this as a half system play so it doesn't count as much as one where I'm sure. I don't want to mess up the actual system. And I actually kinda like Detroit this week.





2022 Regular Season
12-19 Plays, 7-10 Leans, 2-1 System Plays

2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans

2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).

2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans

2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans

2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs

[Kevin]

Something is really wrong with Indianapolis. I'm sitting here watching the game and they just don't move the ball at all. Very bizarre

[recovering77]

Something is really wrong with Indianapolis. I'm sitting here watching the game and they just don't move the ball at all. Very bizarre

Shouldn't be surprising with the third string QB from last year. Despite the losing record, I think Matt Ryan was like top 5 in passing yards before they pulled him.

[recovering77]

Adding:

Play:
Green Bay +10.5 (L4) at Buffalo (W2). Probability play as both 10 point dogs didn't cover earlier. Matchup wise, Green Bay is actually pretty good vs the pass. They have Jaire Alexander who should stop Diggs from going off. They're just pretty weak vs. the run. Singletary is probably having the most success of his career this season, but he's still a below average RB. I also don't think Aaron Rodgers wants to get embarassed in primetime. It's been very rare that Green Bay has been an underdog since Rodgers took over. Last season I remember taking them on Thursday Night against the Cardinals, and he came through. Line seems kinda high, but if you look at what Buffalo has done lately, and Green Bays losing streak it seems about fair.

[recovering77]

Something is really wrong with Indianapolis. I'm sitting here watching the game and they just don't move the ball at all. Very bizarre

Can't even be mad about Indy. Heinicke just really came through in the clutch. And that effort by Mclaurin I don't remember seeing that happen before.

I don't think the spread would have mattered anyways, but what a drop by Pittman. If he catches that in stride they really had a shot of winning that game.

[Kevin]

I probably should have been more clear. I didn't mean they weren't moving the ball at all in the last week's game I meant for the last handful of games. Even with Taylor in the lineup. That offensive line is just doing absolutely nothing, which is nuts because they were highly rated going into the season.

[Kevin]

Do you bet on baseball at all? I think you would be really good at it with how analytical you are.

You can actually beat baseball without even having to watch the games because it's so statistical.

[recovering77]

Do you bet on baseball at all? I think you would be really good at it with how analytical you are.

You can actually beat baseball without even having to watch the games because it's so statistical.

Yes, I do bet baseball. You're right, I don't watch it. Baseball season used to be my offseason where I'd take a break right before NBA playoffs and the NCAA tournament because I'm not any good at either of those. But I helped some friends a couple of seasons and discovered that I was pretty good at it. I don't really post though because sometimes I'm a bit superstitious.

I think every time I've posted college football this season I've lost.

I post NFL because I take Sundays really seriously, and I look at a lot of different things. So many things that I start to forget stuff. So rather than have it written in a file on my computer, I keep track on here.

Will be updating my Week 9 post shortly.