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Crappy week heading into NFL Sunday. I thought there was a ton of value on the Astros today, that's why I bet on the feckless Yankees. Big mistake. It was the first time I've bet them since the all star break when they ruined their team.
Anyways, when I first looked at the card I said to myself this is the toughest week I've seen in the past 2 years. All the lines are -7, and that's not my specialty. But I'll take a shot.
Last week 3-4 plays, 1-0 leans. 1-0 System plays.
Plays:
Detroit +7 (L2) at Dallas (L1). Detroit is off their bye week, but that doesn't really matter if you look at the trends. There's a ton of juicy Dak Prescott passing props this week, so I don't think he's gonna do much. Dallas is just going to run the ball and lean on the defense. I think that thrashing that Bailey Zappe's Patriots is relatively fresh on people's minds. Theoretically, Dallas should have the same recipe, but it doesn't work like that. Detroit is great underdog of more than 3 pts, and I think they keep it close here in Dak Prescott's rushed return from a fractured thumb. Deandre Swift will be out again, which is surprising. And DJ Chark is out again.
Green Bay -4 (L3) at Washington (W1). Washington has the backup QB up, but this is most definitely a departure from the Backup QB system. This is a guy that started the entire season for them last year. Everyone knows who Heinicke is, and he's showed glimpses of being a franchise QB at times. I think that Jets game was the last wake up call Rodgers needed. The Green Bay offense is a mess, but Washington is a plus matchup for anyone on Green Bay's offense.
Houston +7 (W1) at LV Raiders (W2). Both teams off a bye and the Raiders continuing to try to save their season. The Texans are quietly 4-1-1 ATS this season. I haven't even noticed until now. This would primarily be a consensus fade for me. The top pick has won 2 weeks in a row, so it's due for a loss. But the Raiders defense hasn't stopped anyone this whole season and Houston has played everyone close.
Denver +2.5 (W1) vs. NY Jets (W3). This is a true backup QB system with Rypien starting for the Broncos. It's just hard to look at this game, because the books are actually giving the Jets some of the credit they deserve, yet they aren't with the Giants. Will look into this more. But the line is actually a bit high IMO. It's just the backup QB system if I were to take it at all.
Leans:
Jacksonville -3 (L3) vs. NY Giants (W3). Pretty shocker of a line that Jacksonville would be giving the full 3 here. I know the haters have been discounting the Giants' success, but that line is really insulting. I know the Jags are horrid as favorites, but with a weak card you have to look somewhere. We'll see if Jacksonville can cover and do what the Green Bay Packers, Baltimore Ravens, Tennessee Titans, and so on could not.
Moving this to a lean because it's way too popular a pick today. I still like it, but it's dangerously popular.
Pass:
Cleveland +6.5 (L3) at Baltimore (L3). I don't want to do this to myself again, but just when you're about to give up on a team, they finally cover. I don't trust Baltimore's defense against anyone, not even Brissett. Baltimore has covered 5 in a row in this matchup. If Daniel Jones and his practice squad WR core can beat the Ravens, then Amari Cooper and Nick Chubb should theoretically do the same.
Cincy -6.5 (W4) vs. Atlanta (W6). I guess Cincy has shed their SB hangover at this point. It's no secret that Atlanta has covered every game this season. I'm actually looking for their bye week and it's not til week 14. Cincy at Cleveland on MNF next week, and Atlanta 7 pt favorites against Carolina. I may flip this with the Cleveland game, but I'm looking into it. Mariota has stayed surprisingly healthy this season, which is out of the norm for his career.
I may switch this back to Atlanta. Even last season, they had an uncanny ability to score late and stay competitive in games. I've always tried to analyze ATS covering streaks like this, and when they get this long, you kinda just move outta the way for the most part.
These 2 plays were too hard for me. I should erase them, but they are no plays.
No Plays:
Carolina +13.5 (L3) vs. Tampa Bay (L4). Probably running out of my fade Tom Brady mojo at this point. Tampa Bay is 0-4 ATS in his last 4. Carolina is where struggling teams seem to get right though. Even the Rams beat them by 14 last week. This is probably my "team that has given up" angle after the McCaffrey trade, along with Robbie Anderson. Probably one of the likeliest games that I'll pull off the card though. That's a very high line on the road. Tampa would be almost -20 if they were at home.
After more thought, I think this line is too high for me. With the way Tom has been playing, this line should be more like -4.5. Factoring in team motivation, I could see this line as high as -7.5, but 13.5 is just way too high. I may look into taking Tampa this week.
System Plays:
None
2022 Regular Season
12-15 Plays, 7-9 Leans, 2-1 System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
Anyways, when I first looked at the card I said to myself this is the toughest week I've seen in the past 2 years. All the lines are -7, and that's not my specialty. But I'll take a shot.
Last week 3-4 plays, 1-0 leans. 1-0 System plays.
Plays:
Detroit +7 (L2) at Dallas (L1). Detroit is off their bye week, but that doesn't really matter if you look at the trends. There's a ton of juicy Dak Prescott passing props this week, so I don't think he's gonna do much. Dallas is just going to run the ball and lean on the defense. I think that thrashing that Bailey Zappe's Patriots is relatively fresh on people's minds. Theoretically, Dallas should have the same recipe, but it doesn't work like that. Detroit is great underdog of more than 3 pts, and I think they keep it close here in Dak Prescott's rushed return from a fractured thumb. Deandre Swift will be out again, which is surprising. And DJ Chark is out again.
Green Bay -4 (L3) at Washington (W1). Washington has the backup QB up, but this is most definitely a departure from the Backup QB system. This is a guy that started the entire season for them last year. Everyone knows who Heinicke is, and he's showed glimpses of being a franchise QB at times. I think that Jets game was the last wake up call Rodgers needed. The Green Bay offense is a mess, but Washington is a plus matchup for anyone on Green Bay's offense.
Houston +7 (W1) at LV Raiders (W2). Both teams off a bye and the Raiders continuing to try to save their season. The Texans are quietly 4-1-1 ATS this season. I haven't even noticed until now. This would primarily be a consensus fade for me. The top pick has won 2 weeks in a row, so it's due for a loss. But the Raiders defense hasn't stopped anyone this whole season and Houston has played everyone close.
Denver +2.5 (W1) vs. NY Jets (W3). This is a true backup QB system with Rypien starting for the Broncos. It's just hard to look at this game, because the books are actually giving the Jets some of the credit they deserve, yet they aren't with the Giants. Will look into this more. But the line is actually a bit high IMO. It's just the backup QB system if I were to take it at all.
Leans:
Jacksonville -3 (L3) vs. NY Giants (W3). Pretty shocker of a line that Jacksonville would be giving the full 3 here. I know the haters have been discounting the Giants' success, but that line is really insulting. I know the Jags are horrid as favorites, but with a weak card you have to look somewhere. We'll see if Jacksonville can cover and do what the Green Bay Packers, Baltimore Ravens, Tennessee Titans, and so on could not.
Moving this to a lean because it's way too popular a pick today. I still like it, but it's dangerously popular.
Pass:
Cleveland +6.5 (L3) at Baltimore (L3). I don't want to do this to myself again, but just when you're about to give up on a team, they finally cover. I don't trust Baltimore's defense against anyone, not even Brissett. Baltimore has covered 5 in a row in this matchup. If Daniel Jones and his practice squad WR core can beat the Ravens, then Amari Cooper and Nick Chubb should theoretically do the same.
Cincy -6.5 (W4) vs. Atlanta (W6). I guess Cincy has shed their SB hangover at this point. It's no secret that Atlanta has covered every game this season. I'm actually looking for their bye week and it's not til week 14. Cincy at Cleveland on MNF next week, and Atlanta 7 pt favorites against Carolina. I may flip this with the Cleveland game, but I'm looking into it. Mariota has stayed surprisingly healthy this season, which is out of the norm for his career.
I may switch this back to Atlanta. Even last season, they had an uncanny ability to score late and stay competitive in games. I've always tried to analyze ATS covering streaks like this, and when they get this long, you kinda just move outta the way for the most part.
These 2 plays were too hard for me. I should erase them, but they are no plays.
No Plays:
Carolina +13.5 (L3) vs. Tampa Bay (L4). Probably running out of my fade Tom Brady mojo at this point. Tampa Bay is 0-4 ATS in his last 4. Carolina is where struggling teams seem to get right though. Even the Rams beat them by 14 last week. This is probably my "team that has given up" angle after the McCaffrey trade, along with Robbie Anderson. Probably one of the likeliest games that I'll pull off the card though. That's a very high line on the road. Tampa would be almost -20 if they were at home.
After more thought, I think this line is too high for me. With the way Tom has been playing, this line should be more like -4.5. Factoring in team motivation, I could see this line as high as -7.5, but 13.5 is just way too high. I may look into taking Tampa this week.
System Plays:
None
2022 Regular Season
12-15 Plays, 7-9 Leans, 2-1 System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs