Week 6 Early Notes

**recovering77** · 10-14-2022, 12:43 AM

Phewwww needed that one. Especially after the week I had last week. 1-0 Plays, 1-0 Leans to start the week.

Last week I only liked like 1-2 games, but forced like 10 picks out of the card and ended up losing most. Trying to put in some real time this week.

Last Week 1-4 plays, 2-3 Leans. I thought I made the Raiders a play, but I got a win on my record so whatever.

This week I like most of the teams I liked last week that lost, so hopefully it works out for me.

Plays:

Cleveland -2.5 (L2) vs. New England (W2). Painful to keep taking a Jacoby Brissett quarterbacked team two weeks in a row, but I think I have to. Stefanski is pretty good off a loss, and they're coming off two of them now. New England killing Detroit last week is really an outlier. Detroit's defense can't stop anyone, they're really bad on the road, and Detroit shot themselves in the foot repeatedly by turning the ball over or getting stopped on 4th and short. New England has a pretty good defense as usual, but the benefit of having a Brissett team is that he doesn't make a lot of mistakes. 4 total sacks allowed in 5 games, and only 3 interceptions. Third time is he charm I hope. Monitoring Mac Jones' status, but I think he sits out one more week. Cleveland should have won last week, but not much you can do sometimes when you're playing Justin Herbert and trying to match him drive for drive.

Atlanta +4.5 (W5) vs. San Francisco (W2). San Francisco plastered the Panthers last week. Atlanta got a bad call but still covered against Tampa. I mentioned a couple of weeks ago before SF played the Rams that win or lose, San Fran would win 2 of the next 3, which includes a home game against KC next week. So after punishing Carolina last week, I think it's a lookahead spot for SF. Normally it wouldn't be for a non-division, non-conference, but that's a super bowl rematch. That game will show if SF is a real contender or not, and i think I'd take SF in that game. I'm not calling for the outright win, but people including myself need to stop doubting Atlanta who has covered all 5 games this season. They really know how to hang around in most games. That goes back to last season as well. SF also has a lot of injuries this week. Last week's win came at a big price.

Pittsburgh +10 (L3) vs. Tampa Bay (L3). My fading of Brady this year has worked out pretty well so far. Brady is playing better than i thought, but the team is not performing at a high level. Pittsburgh off the blowout loss against Buffalo. I haven't caught much of Kenny Pickett this season, but from the stats it looks like he can at least move the ball. Can't say that with a lot of rookie QBs. This is mainly just a Brady fade, but are the Steelers really going to start the season 1-5 and follow up a dud with another dud? Probably not with a Mike Tomlin coached team.

Carolina +10 (L2) at LA Rams (L2). I have the stomach to take Cleveland again, but I'm not sure about Carolina. Double digit line, but the Rams are at home. This is a play on the new coach system, and the backup QB system in the same week. Steve Wilks is the interim coach for the Panthers and I'm sure the NFL wants him to succeed to add some diversity to the league. PJ Walker gets the start for Carolina. He's an unknown, but we've seen him a couple of times last year (he covered), so not a perfect fit to the system. Carolina has a top 10 defense, and the Rams seem to turn the ball over a lot. Hopefully that keeps them in the game.

Miami +3.5 (L2) vs. Minnesota (L4). This is a true backup QB system play as Miami's third string QB Skylar Thompson is officially starting. Minnesota has lost 4 in a row ATS, but won 3 games in a row SU. I think I saw Minnesota in the top 4 overall NFL power rankings. Crazy how much parity we have this season. I'm going to go ahead and make a play on Miami here. Minnesota is 4-1 and I don't really see them going 5-1 personally. I don't know much about Skylar Thompson, but apparently he was one of the best QBs to play in the preseason. Should be a close game in very Minnesota fashion. I will probably need to update the line later, because it looks like this is moving to 3.5.

Baltimore ML (L1) at NY Giants (W2). I probably have the worst record betting Baltimore games out of any team. The Giants are like Dallas. They keep covering even though they've got injuries, including their WR corps which is completely depleted. I think the line is a bit high for being on the road against a 4-1 team. Baltimore's defense isn't very good, but their offense has more firepower than Green Bay who almost got blanked in the second half last week. Baltimore probably going to be down Bateman again this week, but Andrews is Lamar's Davante Adams. Could be close for a little bit, but Baltimore should pull away. Giants may be getting Wandale Robinson back this week, but Toney and Golloday are probably both still out.

The Ravens were originally a top play for me, but the Giants ended up being a system play. I thought long and hard and decided to bring it back, but only for the money line. Giants are still a system play though, and will count towards that.

No Plays:

New Orleans +3 (W2) vs Cincy (W3). It always happens like that. Two weeks ago I said I was done giving New Orleans the benefit of the doubt, because Sean Payton made a huge difference. Then Jameis gets hurt and Andy Dalton reels off 2 covers in a row and I'm back to liking them again. It would normally be not a great spot to take the Saints off 2 consecutive covers, but CIncy has pulled off 3 of their own. Painful loss last week on the Ravens, especially since they got the SU victory. Teams like Cincy tends to come out flat after a big game like that against their main division rival in the Ravens. I'm monitoring the status of Jameis Winston, but it looks like he's likely going to be out again. Tee Higgins probably out for Cincy, but they've still got Chase and Boyd. Not something that will affect the line or the game too much iMO.

This was at one time my pick of the week, but I decided not to play it. New Orleans is coming off consecutive wins where they looked pretty good, and now getting a full +3 at home actually seems a bit high. I also saw ESPN flash that Andy Dalton is 2-0 vs. his former team, and I didn't like that. Probably a missed opportunity, but I'm passing on it.

That's it for the possibles. A lot of great rivalry games I didn't include, but those are for watching, not for betting.

Will narrow it down a bit tomorrow and Saturday.

System Plays (1-1):
NY Giants +6 (W2) vs. Baltimore (L1)

2022 Regular Season
9-11 Plays, 6-9 Leans, 1-1 System Plays

2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans

2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).

2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans

2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans

2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs

Week 6 Early Notes

Week 6 Early Notes

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