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Probably the new normal that I'm not going to have a lot of games I like on a weekly basis because of all this player and coach shuffling. I just had incredible run betting NFL, tennis, and college football for 48 hours, so I'm exhausted. Will finish up later.
2-3 plays last week. 2-3 leans. The Detroit over actually dropped a point after I posted, so it would have won, but I'll count it as a loss this time. I'll also admit that I'm realizing that Sean Payton really is that great of a coach. The Saints have been competitive, but Payton was the difference between being a winning team and having close losses. So I won't be giving their overvalued lines the benefit of the doubt anymore.
As a reminder, I put the teams' current W/L ATS streak in parenthesis every week. It helps me a bit.
Plays:
Detroit -3.5 (W3) vs. Seattle (L2). I guess Geno the covering machine is coming back to earth. Went 4-0 ATS, now lost his last two. I like Detroit in this spot because I think the line is too high considering Detroit is missing their top 2 playmakers (Swift and St. Brown). Giving the hook against Geno who has been covering, and despite the loss last week still had a productive game.
Carolina +1.5 (W1) vs. Arizona (L1). I read something funny about this today. So apparently Kyler Murray is a big Call of Duty player. He even streams his gameplay on twitch. So COD has certain weeks during the year where you can level up twice as fast, and that entices a lot of people to play more. Someone did a reference to the times they did this promotion to weeks that Kyler Murray plays. The conclusion is that he and the team as well do noticeably worse on weeks the promotion is going on. So basically it's saying Kyler plays too much video games when he should be watching film and prepping for his opponent that week. Other than that, I'm going with the injured player theory with McCaffrey likely out for the game.
Kansas City -1 (L1) at Tampa Bay(L1). Very bad spot for KC last week. The lookahead to TB, plus playing a desperate team that just lost 24-0 the week before. I'll continue fading Brady this season, as he's shown me nothing so far to prove me wrong that he is washed up, and that his marriage is affecting his play. FYI Favre lost both times to Rodgers in his last season.
Washington +3 (L2) vs. Dallas (W2).Cooper Rush going for 3 straight wins and covers. Washington coming off an embarrassing loss to Philly. Playing the bounceback angle after Washington looked AWFUL last week. Down 24-0 at the half. Dallas should be thrilled that they should be getting Dak with no worse than a .500 record with the backup. Dak is due back week 6 I believe. Listed as a play but I debated on whether to move it to a lean.
Las Vegas Raiders -2.5 (L3) vs. Denver (W1). Isn't three games enough for a new QB to figure things out? Wilson looked like crap again for the 3rd week in a row. I guess the Raiders were overhyped, but I think this is a must win already if they want to salvage their season. The Raiders offense has been pretty good. The defense just blows it for them. Denver hasn't shown the ability to score on anyone yet.
Leans: I'll make these all leans, but I haven't had time to sift through them.
NY Jets +3.5 (L1) at Pittsburgh (L2 - Late Line Move). Zach Wilson is returning this week and I think people will be excited to fade him. I will hold my nose that he can possibly play as well as Flacco did, which is saying something.
Cleveland -1.5 (W1) at Atlanta (W3). That Falcons have quietly covered all 3 games this season. Good for them. This is yet another shot at symmetry with the Carolina pick. Cleveland is playing better than most people thought with Brissett. Mainly leaning on Chubb. Atlanta's defense is still really bad. Also an injured player theory with Garrett likely out.
Philly -6.5 (W2) vs. Jacksonville (W2). Very intriguing matchup here between two teams that have looked great this season. Philly is arguably the most hyped team of all this season. The Jacksonville bandwagon is filling up, but I think this young team can and should put up a few clunkers per season. I think this could be the week. If Jacksonville can beat Philly I'll be a believer.
Green Bay -9.5 (W2) vs. New England (L1?). This doesn't qualify for the backup QB system iMO, because Hoyer has been in the league for 14 years and is known enough, and he even started for part of the season before. I said Green Bay would figure it out after week 1. They've figured a little bit out, but I'm not convinced their passing game is even close to fixed. I think New England will score, but Rodgers does enough with what he has to win by double digits.
Note: I realize the Saints are also starting a backup QB this week in Andy Dalton. But again, this doesn't fit the typical backup QB system in my opinion. Guys like Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco are known guys. Dalton was a Pro Bowler and Flacco won a super bowl. I'll record it on my sheet, but I'm not counting them really.
System Plays (1-1):
None this week.
2022 Regular Season
8-6 Plays, 2-4 Leans, 1-1 System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
2-3 plays last week. 2-3 leans. The Detroit over actually dropped a point after I posted, so it would have won, but I'll count it as a loss this time. I'll also admit that I'm realizing that Sean Payton really is that great of a coach. The Saints have been competitive, but Payton was the difference between being a winning team and having close losses. So I won't be giving their overvalued lines the benefit of the doubt anymore.
As a reminder, I put the teams' current W/L ATS streak in parenthesis every week. It helps me a bit.
Plays:
Detroit -3.5 (W3) vs. Seattle (L2). I guess Geno the covering machine is coming back to earth. Went 4-0 ATS, now lost his last two. I like Detroit in this spot because I think the line is too high considering Detroit is missing their top 2 playmakers (Swift and St. Brown). Giving the hook against Geno who has been covering, and despite the loss last week still had a productive game.
Carolina +1.5 (W1) vs. Arizona (L1). I read something funny about this today. So apparently Kyler Murray is a big Call of Duty player. He even streams his gameplay on twitch. So COD has certain weeks during the year where you can level up twice as fast, and that entices a lot of people to play more. Someone did a reference to the times they did this promotion to weeks that Kyler Murray plays. The conclusion is that he and the team as well do noticeably worse on weeks the promotion is going on. So basically it's saying Kyler plays too much video games when he should be watching film and prepping for his opponent that week. Other than that, I'm going with the injured player theory with McCaffrey likely out for the game.
Kansas City -1 (L1) at Tampa Bay(L1). Very bad spot for KC last week. The lookahead to TB, plus playing a desperate team that just lost 24-0 the week before. I'll continue fading Brady this season, as he's shown me nothing so far to prove me wrong that he is washed up, and that his marriage is affecting his play. FYI Favre lost both times to Rodgers in his last season.
Washington +3 (L2) vs. Dallas (W2).Cooper Rush going for 3 straight wins and covers. Washington coming off an embarrassing loss to Philly. Playing the bounceback angle after Washington looked AWFUL last week. Down 24-0 at the half. Dallas should be thrilled that they should be getting Dak with no worse than a .500 record with the backup. Dak is due back week 6 I believe. Listed as a play but I debated on whether to move it to a lean.
Las Vegas Raiders -2.5 (L3) vs. Denver (W1). Isn't three games enough for a new QB to figure things out? Wilson looked like crap again for the 3rd week in a row. I guess the Raiders were overhyped, but I think this is a must win already if they want to salvage their season. The Raiders offense has been pretty good. The defense just blows it for them. Denver hasn't shown the ability to score on anyone yet.
Leans: I'll make these all leans, but I haven't had time to sift through them.
NY Jets +3.5 (L1) at Pittsburgh (L2 - Late Line Move). Zach Wilson is returning this week and I think people will be excited to fade him. I will hold my nose that he can possibly play as well as Flacco did, which is saying something.
Cleveland -1.5 (W1) at Atlanta (W3). That Falcons have quietly covered all 3 games this season. Good for them. This is yet another shot at symmetry with the Carolina pick. Cleveland is playing better than most people thought with Brissett. Mainly leaning on Chubb. Atlanta's defense is still really bad. Also an injured player theory with Garrett likely out.
Philly -6.5 (W2) vs. Jacksonville (W2). Very intriguing matchup here between two teams that have looked great this season. Philly is arguably the most hyped team of all this season. The Jacksonville bandwagon is filling up, but I think this young team can and should put up a few clunkers per season. I think this could be the week. If Jacksonville can beat Philly I'll be a believer.
Green Bay -9.5 (W2) vs. New England (L1?). This doesn't qualify for the backup QB system iMO, because Hoyer has been in the league for 14 years and is known enough, and he even started for part of the season before. I said Green Bay would figure it out after week 1. They've figured a little bit out, but I'm not convinced their passing game is even close to fixed. I think New England will score, but Rodgers does enough with what he has to win by double digits.
Note: I realize the Saints are also starting a backup QB this week in Andy Dalton. But again, this doesn't fit the typical backup QB system in my opinion. Guys like Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco are known guys. Dalton was a Pro Bowler and Flacco won a super bowl. I'll record it on my sheet, but I'm not counting them really.
System Plays (1-1):
None this week.
2022 Regular Season
8-6 Plays, 2-4 Leans, 1-1 System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
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