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I've had a pretty busy weekend, so not much time to research, though I did talk about the picks with some friends. I wanted to get these in in case I oversleep or something.
I will preface these picks by saying I'm planning on fading Tom Brady early and often this season.Fading Brady has been a losing proposition for his entire career, but I really think he will have a down year and retire after this season to try and save his marriage. So if he messes with my season long record, then so be it. As always, picks are subject to change up until kickoff.
3-1 plays last week, 1-0 system plays.
5 Pack Plays:
New Orleans +2.5 vs. Tampa Bay. This will likely be the only pick I actually put money on this week, and I'm hitting it hard. The way Tom Brady played last week validated what I thought we would see this season. He did a bunch of dumpoff passes and leaned on the defense because Dallas could get 0 going the whole game. I'm a bit nervous because late last season the Saints punished Tampa in primetime on SNF where it was brought up that Brady really struggles vs. New Orleans. Cats out the bag, but I'm going with it. The Saints are still a pretty good team even without Sean Payton.
New England -2.5 at Pittsburgh. This pick is kinda more about symmetry than anything. New England looked awful last week, and Pittsburgh is coming off the big win against Cincinnati where the kicker blew the game winning kicks twice. TJ Watt and Najee Harris both got hurt last week, but Najee practiced fully to end the week and will play. This may be my weakest play of the week, but I'm going with it. Based on what happened last week, it's shocking to see Pittsburgh not giving points in this game even with the injuries.
Dallas +7.5 vs. Cincinnati. Backup QB system. Not as successful last year as in years past. And we've already seen Cooper Rush win last year, so it doesn't really fit the system. But I will continue to fade the loser of the super bowl for the time being. The owners ripped Ceedee Lamb all week, so hopefully he has something to prove.
LV Raiders -5 vs. Arizona. The cardinals were the last undefeated team last season. I think they covered like their first 7 out of 8 games or something before cratering at the close of the year. The Cardinals did get blown out pretty badly last week, but I'm willing to keep going with the reversion to the mean after the incredibly hot start to last season. Arizona just isn't the same team without Deandre Hopkins. Hollywood Brown is a nice speedy receiver, but Hopkins is an animal. I also think the Raiders will somewhat live up to the hype this season. Davante Adams really is that good, and he could bring what Hopkins brought to the cardinals.
Green Bay -10 vs. Chicago. The Packers are a team I'm willing to give a shot this week as a double digit favorite after looking awful last week. Lazard should be back this week, which will give Rodgers some kinda familiar face. Hopefully Christian Watson gets another chance after dropping that TD last week. The Bears are coming off a flukey win that happened in 40 MPH winds. I'll give Rodgers the benefit of the doubt for now. Expect a bounceback after that embarrassment from last week.
Leans:
Washington +1.5 at Detroit. I discussed this with a friend this evening, and we both agree that Carson Wentz is still being undervalued. As I said last week, he had a horrible camp throwing picks over and over during drills. He's playing with a chip on his shoulder after the Colts ripped him repeatedly since trading him away. Last season whenever the line was short and Detroit was a trendy pick, they would usually get blown out. Detroit put up 35 last week. Kinda like what happened last season where they got the miracle backdoor cover week 1. They'll be a fun squad to follow this season though, lots of exciting and useful players for fantasy football. With wins over Jacksonville and Detroit, Wentz probably still won't get any respect going into weeks 3-4, so maybe I ride with them again next week.
System Plays (1-0):
None this week. I think they happen like once every 2-3 weeks.
2022 Regular Season
3-1 Plays, 0-0 Leans, 1-0 System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
I will preface these picks by saying I'm planning on fading Tom Brady early and often this season.Fading Brady has been a losing proposition for his entire career, but I really think he will have a down year and retire after this season to try and save his marriage. So if he messes with my season long record, then so be it. As always, picks are subject to change up until kickoff.
3-1 plays last week, 1-0 system plays.
5 Pack Plays:
New Orleans +2.5 vs. Tampa Bay. This will likely be the only pick I actually put money on this week, and I'm hitting it hard. The way Tom Brady played last week validated what I thought we would see this season. He did a bunch of dumpoff passes and leaned on the defense because Dallas could get 0 going the whole game. I'm a bit nervous because late last season the Saints punished Tampa in primetime on SNF where it was brought up that Brady really struggles vs. New Orleans. Cats out the bag, but I'm going with it. The Saints are still a pretty good team even without Sean Payton.
New England -2.5 at Pittsburgh. This pick is kinda more about symmetry than anything. New England looked awful last week, and Pittsburgh is coming off the big win against Cincinnati where the kicker blew the game winning kicks twice. TJ Watt and Najee Harris both got hurt last week, but Najee practiced fully to end the week and will play. This may be my weakest play of the week, but I'm going with it. Based on what happened last week, it's shocking to see Pittsburgh not giving points in this game even with the injuries.
Dallas +7.5 vs. Cincinnati. Backup QB system. Not as successful last year as in years past. And we've already seen Cooper Rush win last year, so it doesn't really fit the system. But I will continue to fade the loser of the super bowl for the time being. The owners ripped Ceedee Lamb all week, so hopefully he has something to prove.
LV Raiders -5 vs. Arizona. The cardinals were the last undefeated team last season. I think they covered like their first 7 out of 8 games or something before cratering at the close of the year. The Cardinals did get blown out pretty badly last week, but I'm willing to keep going with the reversion to the mean after the incredibly hot start to last season. Arizona just isn't the same team without Deandre Hopkins. Hollywood Brown is a nice speedy receiver, but Hopkins is an animal. I also think the Raiders will somewhat live up to the hype this season. Davante Adams really is that good, and he could bring what Hopkins brought to the cardinals.
Green Bay -10 vs. Chicago. The Packers are a team I'm willing to give a shot this week as a double digit favorite after looking awful last week. Lazard should be back this week, which will give Rodgers some kinda familiar face. Hopefully Christian Watson gets another chance after dropping that TD last week. The Bears are coming off a flukey win that happened in 40 MPH winds. I'll give Rodgers the benefit of the doubt for now. Expect a bounceback after that embarrassment from last week.
Leans:
Washington +1.5 at Detroit. I discussed this with a friend this evening, and we both agree that Carson Wentz is still being undervalued. As I said last week, he had a horrible camp throwing picks over and over during drills. He's playing with a chip on his shoulder after the Colts ripped him repeatedly since trading him away. Last season whenever the line was short and Detroit was a trendy pick, they would usually get blown out. Detroit put up 35 last week. Kinda like what happened last season where they got the miracle backdoor cover week 1. They'll be a fun squad to follow this season though, lots of exciting and useful players for fantasy football. With wins over Jacksonville and Detroit, Wentz probably still won't get any respect going into weeks 3-4, so maybe I ride with them again next week.
System Plays (1-0):
None this week. I think they happen like once every 2-3 weeks.
2022 Regular Season
3-1 Plays, 0-0 Leans, 1-0 System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
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