***NFL Week 4 Discussion***

Collapse
X
Collapse
Posts
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • Underdog88
    I drink your milkshake!!!
    • Mar 2007
    • 13981

    ***NFL Week 4 Discussion***

    Getting it started nice and early this week, hopefully we can get some winners out of this thread. Last week Q killed it with his initial leans, and there were plenty of good points brought up.



    Bills/Bengals- Major letdown possibility here for the Bills. They just beat the Patriots at home in dramatic fashion, and now traveling to Cincy where the Bengals gave away their first home game. Situationally it doesn't get much tougher on a team- much like the Ravens after week 1. Great teams overcome bad situation sport but not always. Buffalo is not a great team. They definitely have a solid offensive attack, but as I said last week there are holes defensively. cb Aaron Williams was injured last week, making an already short defensive backfield more thin. Though Brady was picked 10 times last week, McKelvin, Corner, Florence and Scott all got torched more than once. Biggest concern obviously is AJ Green, but Simpson/Caldwell could cause problems too.

    Offensively the Bills seem unstoppable, especially 2ndh. It may sound funny, but Cincy is the best defense the Bills will have faced so far this season. Their secondary may not be #7 in the league as they are currently ranked, after all they played Clev, SF & Denver- hardly a test in the passing game. Leon Hall and Clements are solid, but I do think the Bills have an opportunity to pick on Reggie Nelson..... I do think the run defense is the real deal.

    Part of Buffalo's sucess has stemmed from running the ball extremely well to open the season, 163 vs KC, 223 vs Raiders and 79 vs NE. Though it was inly 79 they averaged 4 ypc, and Fred had some very crucial run plays. Now they have to face Cincy who allowed 3.2 ypc to Clev, 3.6 to Denver and 1.7 to the Niners at home. Geno Atkins and Peko in the middle, Fred may have a tougher go at it this week. If the Bills aren't getting yardage in the run game early downs, you can bet that the passing game will not be as effective. Dunlap getting healthier could disrupt the passing game should Fitz be forced into long 3rd down situations. The Buffalo O-line has been amazing in pass protection, allowing just one sack this season. I think Cincy gets more pressure on Fitz this week.



    I am not endorsing a straight wager on Cincy, only giving you my opinions on what I see in Bill's games. IMO this is not a good spot to lay the road chalk.
    Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...
  • Underdog88
    I drink your milkshake!!!
    • Mar 2007
    • 13981

    #2
    Patriots/Raiders over- Patriots off a loss where Brady gave the game away. Now they have to go face Oakland, who is off a su win as a dog. Brady could very well pick this Raiders secondary apart. Sanchez threw for 369, Fitz torched them. If I know anything about the Pats, they will come out firing and won't let up until the clock runs out. As I said before I don't think very highly of the Patriots defense. Mcfadden is such a game changer at this point he could be in the top 5 nfl players. I'm sure the Pats will key in on him, but there hasn't been a team this year that could stop him (Bills held him to under 80 rushing, but he still had over 140 ap yds). Ford still out, but the emergence of Denarious should help the offense. In the end I think the Pats win, but I'm opting for the over here. May also be on the Pats tt over
    Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...

    Comment

    • Daws1089
      Moderator
      • Mar 2007
      • 7814

      #3
      great stuff on Buffalo Underdog. I agree with a lot of what you said. Again it is a terrible situation for a good, not great team to be in. Bengals should be able to score 21+. Buffalo also coming off a game as a big home dog, now a road fav is a scenario I will avoid. Give me the red rifle and Cincy's defense in that game.

      I actually think the Pat's might lose again. They are in the 2nd game of a b2b and have to go out to OAK. Raiders will run at will imo with McFadden, Bush and Reece. I think Underdog is right about all the scoring, but if NE survives I don't think it will be by more than a fg. Their defense can be had in so many ways.

      Comment

      • Q-Unit
        Offensive Coordinator
        • Feb 2007
        • 5184

        #4
        I agree mostly with what ya'll said.

        I love seeing Buffalo succeed, but I feel as though Cincy is the play here.

        Initial leans:

        Cincinnati +3

        Dallas -1.5


        - Lord help me, ya'll know better than to accept anything I say about the Cowboys either for or against lol. That being said, I feel as though the Cowboys did everything they could to lose that game but got lucky. Therefore, I like them this week with Romo actually getting reps to be more in sync with his o-line and receivers. They missed Austin Miles big time, so if he's back that will help. And I like Detroit to lose in this spot? 2nd of b2b road trip would be my biggest reason to fade the red-hot Lions.

        Oakland +4

        - I feel the same way about Oakland as both Daws and Underdog laid it out. I think they can run on the Pats and have enough scoring in them to keep it close.

        Atlanta -4.5

        - I have serious doubts if this team will make the playoffs. So much talent but no execution mainly on offense. People will always lean towards the Seahawks at home, but I feel as though this game really is a "must-win" for the Falcons. -4.5 almost seems too easy.
        :hide:

        "Schooly D is fat cake yo."
        -Big Pimpin-

        Comment

        • Underdog88
          I drink your milkshake!!!
          • Mar 2007
          • 13981

          #5
          I don't like the Raiders side.... lean Patriots but already played over
          Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...

          Comment

          • MrDecipher
            Member
            • Jul 2008
            • 268

            #6
            I don't think this game will be as close as people think . Cincy is in fact a little better on D (maybe even a lot better) but their Defense will be on the field a lot and get worn down . That will be key in this game I think . They have looked really bad on O after that win vs their in state rival browns . Also bear in mind that Cleveland's passing attack is nothing to be feared and I think that helped the Bengals knowing that their problems were narrowed to containing Hillis ..
            If your actions inspire others to dream more,learn more,
            do more and become more,you are a leader.

            Comment

            • MrDecipher
              Member
              • Jul 2008
              • 268

              #7
              Originally posted by Underdog88
              Patriots/Raiders over- Patriots off a loss where Brady gave the game away. Now they have to go face Oakland, who is off a su win as a dog. Brady could very well pick this Raiders secondary apart. Sanchez threw for 369, Fitz torched them. If I know anything about the Pats, they will come out firing and won't let up until the clock runs out. As I said before I don't think very highly of the Patriots defense. Mcfadden is such a game changer at this point he could be in the top 5 nfl players. I'm sure the Pats will key in on him, but there hasn't been a team this year that could stop him (Bills held him to under 80 rushing, but he still had over 140 ap yds). Ford still out, but the emergence of Denarious should help the offense. In the end I think the Pats win, but I'm opting for the over here. May also be on the Pats tt over
              I agree here , I don't think the Raiders will handle the pressures of playing from behind very well . Their strength is running and they might have to change the game plan once the score gets to double digits , then the Campbell mistakes come .
              If your actions inspire others to dream more,learn more,
              do more and become more,you are a leader.

              Comment

              • MrDecipher
                Member
                • Jul 2008
                • 268

                #8
                These are sides I'm leaning early myself , its very likely that I do NOT play all these sides after further analysis but based on my initial numbers these are what I'm considering ..

                Lions +1 (I made Detroit -3 and Dallas simply cannot protect Romo and will get a lot of heat)

                Rams PK (The Rams have had a tough draw so far , I think they figure it out and get W #1
                even if Jackson does not play . Washington is really nothing special)

                Bills -3 (Let down or not , win/lose or draw . Cincy's offense is terrible and I don't think they
                will be able to keep up , their D will wear down I believe)

                KC +2 (I actually picked them +14 lw and was surprised they kept the game so close vs SD
                I think they will be motivated to get the monkey off their backs and Minny not HOT !)

                Miami +7½ (The number seems high and though there are mostly -7s on SD now I think it
                will close higher because of the public . I'm not very confident in this though )

                Pats -4 (i made this one much higher -7 , also think NE plays hard and make a statement
                after the loss and Raiders let down after a big win)

                Colts +10 ( I like the Buccs , but getting 10 points from a team that barely scores and in
                a game with a fairly low total seems like a no brainer , I made TB -7)

                Hope I can help and we can put some Ws together for sunday ... :thumbs:
                If your actions inspire others to dream more,learn more,
                do more and become more,you are a leader.

                Comment

                • Billy The Kid
                  Alpine Drive? Big Place!
                  • Sep 2008
                  • 469

                  #9
                  Lions +1 - Books arn't showing any confidence in the Cowboys at all with this line. Det. should be able to get to Romo and it looks like Fairley will see some snaps as well. Cowboys offense was out of rythm last week and they were lucky to get the victory. Lions looking like a strong play imo

                  Cardinals +1 - Giants on B2B road games off a straight up dog win against a divisional rival...seems like a good spot to fade to me

                  Jets +3 - Jets in the middle of 3 straight road games with new england on deck. I like them to bounce back and a play on the ML seems like it will be on my card. IMO they don't want to go into NE with the chance of being 2-3 after that game
                  NFL '12

                  Comment

                  • hodown
                    Member
                    • Mar 2007
                    • 923

                    #10
                    I think I disagree on Detroit. Coming off a huge come from behind road win in the division where they haven't won in 10+ years. Not to mention Buffalo and Detroit are the talk of the town this week. Meanwhile Dallas looked pathetic in their MNF, making terrible play after terrible play on offense. I do agree the books aren't taking a stand on Dallas but they still are the slight favorite. Safe to say Detroit hasn't seen an offense that can move the ball through the air as well as Dallas and I don't think Detroit will be able to disrupt on defense as well as Washington did.

                    NYG and Arizona appear to be in great spots as well as Cincinnati.

                    I think the Bears bounce back this week (atleast I hope). SOS is #1 up to this point and they'll have an easier time moving the ball on the ground which will take pressure off Cutler. Then again Martz is an idiot so they may chuck it 60 times and run a bunch of counters.

                    Atlanta and NE both heading west and giving 4 and I like both. NE off a bounce back and Oakland in a letdown spot. Atlanta hass been pretty crusty offensively but their schedule has been stiff as well. In pick the winner scenarios, both being relatively important games, I'll side with the better QB's.

                    Last look I had was JAX +7 hosting NO who typically struggles on the road and coming off a massive 40 point effort in a comeback. Trusting gabbert is a stretch but the defense has been game atleast in terms of total yards.

                    Comment

                    • Daws1089
                      Moderator
                      • Mar 2007
                      • 7814

                      #11
                      how about rams at virtually a pick em. skins gonna lose?

                      Comment

                      • Stifler's Mom
                        Moderator
                        • Feb 2007
                        • 8541

                        #12
                        A few for now...

                        I agree with the tough spots for both buffalo and detroit, but I'm not sure either one realizes they are supposed to come down off their highs and lose this week just yet, lol

                        imho the jets are a good play this week, but that defense who hasn't done **** so far will get absolutely torched by a NE offense in all out revenge mode the following week.

                        The skins are, imho, massively overrated right now, and the books are agreeing, making them a pick at pathetic st louis, who has done nothing but lay eggs to this point and look like the worst team in the league. Eli and the giants handed em a win week 1, the cardinals are nothing to get excited about and mustering a comeback to beat them by 1 at home after trailing basically the whole game doesn't impress me, and romo's boys did everything in their power to give the game away last monday and washington was unable to capitalize. Take away half the idiotic mistakes and dallas runs away with that one. Plus do you want to count on rex GROSSman to get a road win? I don't...

                        Comment

                        • Underdog88
                          I drink your milkshake!!!
                          • Mar 2007
                          • 13981

                          #13
                          I was thinking the same thing about that game, but the Rams have issues. Bradford seems to be under constant pressure, and the Skins know how to get after the qb. Another worry for me is the Rams can't force turnovers to save their lives, while the Skins get after it. Under could be a solid wager there, haven't played one yet lol
                          Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...

                          Comment

                          • Underdog88
                            I drink your milkshake!!!
                            • Mar 2007
                            • 13981

                            #14
                            Leaning very hard on the Niners/Eagles under. You can bet Vick won't be running around much anymore. I would expect a drop in the number of long developing downfield passing plays to further protect him. Hell it might make them better offensively, McCoy should be getting 24 carries EVERY game. Defensively it's apparent the Eagles have problems (I'm looking at YOU the least of the Matthews clan), but I'm not sure Alex Smith is the qb to take advantage of those troubles. I think the Eagles are gonna get after him. Honestly I think this will be an eagles blowout that I won't play. 1 and 5 in the redzone with 3 turnovers last week scares me.
                            Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...

                            Comment

                            • Daws1089
                              Moderator
                              • Mar 2007
                              • 7814

                              #15
                              thankfully casey matthews was benched this week. brian rolle is starting for him. a smaller, nickel type LB.

                              Comment

                              Working...