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Welcome back to NFL everyone. I don't think I've been so anxious for NFL season in a really long time. Getting really tired of playing the bases.
My fantasy draft was extra tough this year because we've got a lot of difference faces in different places, but we'll make due and learn who these teams are in the following weeks.
As always, the card is subject to change up until kickoff, but I don't think I'll be making very many changes this week. I've had all summer to think about these.
Leans:
Minnesota +1.5 vs. Green Bay. The Packers had some covering streak last season. I think they covered like 10 games in a row? Well last year in the opener they put up a stinker at New Orleans, and I actually think that may happen again. The Shanahan Coaching Tree is a real thing, and I think it's going to prove itself here with Kevin O'Connell coaching the Vikings now. The loss of Davante Adams is HUGE for Green Bay. Rodgers and Adams had the best chemistry of any duo in the league. And even deep into the summer Rodgers still wasn't on the same page with most of his receivers. Allen Lazard has proven he can't be a #1 target, and he may not even play this week. I think this could be a 34-10 type game here. In fantasy though, watch out for this Christian Watson guy on Green Bay. 6' 5" tall and 4.3s speed. He may be the only bright spot this week. Green Bay will figure it out, they always do. But it's just one game, the first game.
San Francisco -6.5 at Chicago. Line seems pretty high for the Niners to give almost a TD on the road with such a shakey QB that might lose his job. Trey Lance is still a dynamic QB and he's got plenty of weapons, along with a good defense. The line just seems really high for week 1 where teams are usually given the benefit of the doubt. San Fran by double digits in this one.
Pittsburgh +6.5 at Cincinnati. Big Ben has been the QB in Pittsburgh for almost my entire betting life. But there have been times where backup QBs have had to come in, and they pretty much always keep it close. It doesn't matter who the QB is. Charlie Batch, Dennis Dixon, etc. I think Trubisky and his plethora of weapons Diontae Johnson, Claypool, George Pickens Jr., and Naje Harris can keep it close against the loser of the super bowl. That used to be a thing, not so much lately though except for maybe Atlanta.
Miami -3.5 vs. New England. I see the line has moved to the point of giving the hook, which is a pretty big move. I think having Tyreek Hill is really going to make life much easier for Tua who has been a good QB at times. That along with another Shanahan Coaching Tree member in Mike McDaniel. He looks like a geeky young dude, but I'm sure he's brilliant. I heard in training camp that Mac Jones has been trying to push the ball on longer passes this past offseason. No upgrade in weapons though. Davante Parker was the big acquisition, and I heard Kendrick Bourne had such a bad preseason he almost didn't make the team. I think Tua hits Hill for a couple of deep touchdown passes, and they get the win by more than a field goal.
I will also be tracking a system that did pretty well last season. I believe it won at least 66-70% of the time. I will be tracking the system separately, but I'm not sure how to score my season long record. Because this week it wouldn't have been a play or a lean, but most weeks it probably will be. I'll figure it out later, but I don't want to look like I'm inflating my record as I see fit. I'm pretty proud that I've had 3 straight winning seasons since I started posting consistently.
System Play:
Washington -2.5 vs. Jacksonville. With the exception of that one year when they made the playoffs, Jacksonville has been pretty bad, and early in the season is a good time to fade them before the lines get too inflated. That was pretty funny how Jacksonville was giving 3.5 at Houston last year for week 1.
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
My fantasy draft was extra tough this year because we've got a lot of difference faces in different places, but we'll make due and learn who these teams are in the following weeks.
As always, the card is subject to change up until kickoff, but I don't think I'll be making very many changes this week. I've had all summer to think about these.
Leans:
Minnesota +1.5 vs. Green Bay. The Packers had some covering streak last season. I think they covered like 10 games in a row? Well last year in the opener they put up a stinker at New Orleans, and I actually think that may happen again. The Shanahan Coaching Tree is a real thing, and I think it's going to prove itself here with Kevin O'Connell coaching the Vikings now. The loss of Davante Adams is HUGE for Green Bay. Rodgers and Adams had the best chemistry of any duo in the league. And even deep into the summer Rodgers still wasn't on the same page with most of his receivers. Allen Lazard has proven he can't be a #1 target, and he may not even play this week. I think this could be a 34-10 type game here. In fantasy though, watch out for this Christian Watson guy on Green Bay. 6' 5" tall and 4.3s speed. He may be the only bright spot this week. Green Bay will figure it out, they always do. But it's just one game, the first game.
San Francisco -6.5 at Chicago. Line seems pretty high for the Niners to give almost a TD on the road with such a shakey QB that might lose his job. Trey Lance is still a dynamic QB and he's got plenty of weapons, along with a good defense. The line just seems really high for week 1 where teams are usually given the benefit of the doubt. San Fran by double digits in this one.
Pittsburgh +6.5 at Cincinnati. Big Ben has been the QB in Pittsburgh for almost my entire betting life. But there have been times where backup QBs have had to come in, and they pretty much always keep it close. It doesn't matter who the QB is. Charlie Batch, Dennis Dixon, etc. I think Trubisky and his plethora of weapons Diontae Johnson, Claypool, George Pickens Jr., and Naje Harris can keep it close against the loser of the super bowl. That used to be a thing, not so much lately though except for maybe Atlanta.
Miami -3.5 vs. New England. I see the line has moved to the point of giving the hook, which is a pretty big move. I think having Tyreek Hill is really going to make life much easier for Tua who has been a good QB at times. That along with another Shanahan Coaching Tree member in Mike McDaniel. He looks like a geeky young dude, but I'm sure he's brilliant. I heard in training camp that Mac Jones has been trying to push the ball on longer passes this past offseason. No upgrade in weapons though. Davante Parker was the big acquisition, and I heard Kendrick Bourne had such a bad preseason he almost didn't make the team. I think Tua hits Hill for a couple of deep touchdown passes, and they get the win by more than a field goal.
I will also be tracking a system that did pretty well last season. I believe it won at least 66-70% of the time. I will be tracking the system separately, but I'm not sure how to score my season long record. Because this week it wouldn't have been a play or a lean, but most weeks it probably will be. I'll figure it out later, but I don't want to look like I'm inflating my record as I see fit. I'm pretty proud that I've had 3 straight winning seasons since I started posting consistently.
System Play:
Washington -2.5 vs. Jacksonville. With the exception of that one year when they made the playoffs, Jacksonville has been pretty bad, and early in the season is a good time to fade them before the lines get too inflated. That was pretty funny how Jacksonville was giving 3.5 at Houston last year for week 1.
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
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