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Pretty bad week last week. I think it was the biggest blowout weekend for favorites in the past 10-20 years. I still haven't finalized my picks yet, but will get some notes down.
Trend continues with the team winning the last meeting covering the next meeting. They made it way too easy last week. Cincinnati Under AGAIN, Buffalo Over AGAIN, Kansas City OVER AGAIN. Tampa Bay (ML only) Under again. Rams again, but it went under by luck. Teams that covered the last meeting were 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU Tampa lost the first meeting by 1/2 pt due to backdoor).
Fun Fact: The funny thing is in all the rematch games, the first meeting went over the total. Yet the total has dropped in all 3 of those games. That's extremely puzzling.
Notes:
Tennessee -3.5 (L1)vs. Cincinnati (W5). Over 47.5. This is the only game on the board that is not a rematch. The line does seem kinda low for a #1 overall seed, but I do think Cincinnati will probably be a popular pick this week. I will admit myself that I have doubted Tennessee much down the stretch, but they've found ways to win. They had Pittsburgh in their only loss in the last 5 games, but there's no stopping Big Ben in the second half sometimes.
Derrick Henry will be back for Tennessee. I really like the over in this game as it was a fluke that the Raiders game went under, and Tenn has one of the worst pass defenses in the league. When Cincy has gotten blown out this season, the games have gone wayyyyy over. Cincinnati made a huge leap this year, but I think their time runs out this week. Has a 4-11-1 team ever gone far in the playoffs in the next season? I don't remember seeing it.
Not sure I'll be playing the side, but I'm pretty sure I'm taking the over in this game. Just because it's the only game that's not a rematch game that went over.
I think I'm wrong. I believe Titans -3.5 and ML are the popular pick this week. So I will give it some more thought.
I'm changing my pick and I think I'll go with Cincy on this one for now. Mike Vrabel 4-0 off a bye, 6-2 with Henry, and it does look like a short line for a #1 seed.
San Francisco +6 (W3) at Green Bay (L1). This is a rematch of SNF where Green Bay won 30-28 on a field goal at the end of the game. I honestly didn't follow much of the game. All I remember is that i had SF first half -2 or something and that Green Bay jumped out to a 14-0 lead with ease. I have no idea how SF came back to take the lead, but when it was winning time, Aaron Rodgers came through. I was tempted to take the ML on this as Green Bay looks like a nice leg of a teaser, but I can't go against Rodgers to lose when I can get way more than a field goal. Lean under in this game as well, but won't play it.
Oh yeah, Green Bay is 5-0 SU and ATS in primetime this year. Not sustainable. Just like Mac Jones going 3-0.
LA Rams +3 at (W1) Tampa Bay (W2). I think I saw a stat that Tom Brady is 14-2 SU in this round. I said last week that sometimes teams that go all in on a season suffer massive disappointment. That didn't happen last week for the Rams. On the flip side, some teams that go all in manage to make it pretty far. This is a rematch of when the Rams beat them 34-24 as a 1 pt home underdog. The line has been adjusted though, and I'm liking that the Rams have moved to 2.5 in some places.
The Rams have all the pieces. They're a very complete team. Even more complete than Tampa. They just need to put it together, and I think they have when they went on that 3 game losing streak (0-5 ATS) earlier this season.
Buffalo (W4?) at Kansas City (-1.5) (W1). This is the hardest game on the board for me. It was hard the first time they met too. Everyone was on Buffalo +3 on SNF, and Buffalo beat them 38-20 in a game that didn't even feel that close. The over looked golden early in that game, but barely squeaked over by the end.
Extra tough because both teams looked great last week. Buffalo put up 47 points, and KC put up 42.
I'm really reaching here, but Buffalo couldn't have looked better last week. I thought for sure the game was going to go under, but Buffalo didn't let up the entire game. I realized afterwards it was probably personal, after New England threw the ball only 3 times and beat them, they were pretty angry. And they definitely wanted to send a message, and they did.
KC looked good, but they at least looked human for about a quarter and a half. KC didn't score at all in the first quarter, and actually went down 7-0 on a fumble recovery. Buffalo jumped out to 14-0 in the first, and 27-0 with under 2 mins in the half.
Is it Buffalo's year? I haven't decided yet.
I'm going with KC for now on this game.
I try not to read too much into line movements unless the public is heavily on one side and the line moves against them. This is the playoffs, so the public is pretty split on each game.
Cincy opened at 6, then dropped to 4.5, then went back to 6 in the last day. Line movement won.
San Fran was +3 all week, but I'm seeing it closed at 3.5? Line movement lost.
Rams were -3.5 all week and moved to 3. Line movement lost.
KC was -12.5 and moved to 13, but I'm seeing it closed at 11? Line movement lost.
Buffalo was -3 then moved to 3.5 for most of the week. I believe I saw them close at -5 at some places, but I'm seeing 4.5. Line movement lost.
So yeah, there isn't really a correlation between line movement and who covers. So I don't really put too much into the rams going from +3 to 2.5 or the Chiefs going from -2.5 to -2. The rams move matters more because it was off a key number. 2.5 to 2 in the KC game is pretty much the same.
San Fran opened +5 apparently, then went to 6, then back down to 5.5.
Last week: 2-2 Plays, 0-2 Leans I think. I only had 4 officials, but I would have taken those 2 leans.
2021 Regular Season
36-29 plays, 25-31 leans
Trend continues with the team winning the last meeting covering the next meeting. They made it way too easy last week. Cincinnati Under AGAIN, Buffalo Over AGAIN, Kansas City OVER AGAIN. Tampa Bay (ML only) Under again. Rams again, but it went under by luck. Teams that covered the last meeting were 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU Tampa lost the first meeting by 1/2 pt due to backdoor).
Fun Fact: The funny thing is in all the rematch games, the first meeting went over the total. Yet the total has dropped in all 3 of those games. That's extremely puzzling.
Notes:
Tennessee -3.5 (L1)vs. Cincinnati (W5). Over 47.5. This is the only game on the board that is not a rematch. The line does seem kinda low for a #1 overall seed, but I do think Cincinnati will probably be a popular pick this week. I will admit myself that I have doubted Tennessee much down the stretch, but they've found ways to win. They had Pittsburgh in their only loss in the last 5 games, but there's no stopping Big Ben in the second half sometimes.
Derrick Henry will be back for Tennessee. I really like the over in this game as it was a fluke that the Raiders game went under, and Tenn has one of the worst pass defenses in the league. When Cincy has gotten blown out this season, the games have gone wayyyyy over. Cincinnati made a huge leap this year, but I think their time runs out this week. Has a 4-11-1 team ever gone far in the playoffs in the next season? I don't remember seeing it.
Not sure I'll be playing the side, but I'm pretty sure I'm taking the over in this game. Just because it's the only game that's not a rematch game that went over.
I think I'm wrong. I believe Titans -3.5 and ML are the popular pick this week. So I will give it some more thought.
I'm changing my pick and I think I'll go with Cincy on this one for now. Mike Vrabel 4-0 off a bye, 6-2 with Henry, and it does look like a short line for a #1 seed.
San Francisco +6 (W3) at Green Bay (L1). This is a rematch of SNF where Green Bay won 30-28 on a field goal at the end of the game. I honestly didn't follow much of the game. All I remember is that i had SF first half -2 or something and that Green Bay jumped out to a 14-0 lead with ease. I have no idea how SF came back to take the lead, but when it was winning time, Aaron Rodgers came through. I was tempted to take the ML on this as Green Bay looks like a nice leg of a teaser, but I can't go against Rodgers to lose when I can get way more than a field goal. Lean under in this game as well, but won't play it.
Oh yeah, Green Bay is 5-0 SU and ATS in primetime this year. Not sustainable. Just like Mac Jones going 3-0.
LA Rams +3 at (W1) Tampa Bay (W2). I think I saw a stat that Tom Brady is 14-2 SU in this round. I said last week that sometimes teams that go all in on a season suffer massive disappointment. That didn't happen last week for the Rams. On the flip side, some teams that go all in manage to make it pretty far. This is a rematch of when the Rams beat them 34-24 as a 1 pt home underdog. The line has been adjusted though, and I'm liking that the Rams have moved to 2.5 in some places.
The Rams have all the pieces. They're a very complete team. Even more complete than Tampa. They just need to put it together, and I think they have when they went on that 3 game losing streak (0-5 ATS) earlier this season.
Buffalo (W4?) at Kansas City (-1.5) (W1). This is the hardest game on the board for me. It was hard the first time they met too. Everyone was on Buffalo +3 on SNF, and Buffalo beat them 38-20 in a game that didn't even feel that close. The over looked golden early in that game, but barely squeaked over by the end.
Extra tough because both teams looked great last week. Buffalo put up 47 points, and KC put up 42.
I'm really reaching here, but Buffalo couldn't have looked better last week. I thought for sure the game was going to go under, but Buffalo didn't let up the entire game. I realized afterwards it was probably personal, after New England threw the ball only 3 times and beat them, they were pretty angry. And they definitely wanted to send a message, and they did.
KC looked good, but they at least looked human for about a quarter and a half. KC didn't score at all in the first quarter, and actually went down 7-0 on a fumble recovery. Buffalo jumped out to 14-0 in the first, and 27-0 with under 2 mins in the half.
Is it Buffalo's year? I haven't decided yet.
I'm going with KC for now on this game.
I try not to read too much into line movements unless the public is heavily on one side and the line moves against them. This is the playoffs, so the public is pretty split on each game.
Cincy opened at 6, then dropped to 4.5, then went back to 6 in the last day. Line movement won.
San Fran was +3 all week, but I'm seeing it closed at 3.5? Line movement lost.
Rams were -3.5 all week and moved to 3. Line movement lost.
KC was -12.5 and moved to 13, but I'm seeing it closed at 11? Line movement lost.
Buffalo was -3 then moved to 3.5 for most of the week. I believe I saw them close at -5 at some places, but I'm seeing 4.5. Line movement lost.
So yeah, there isn't really a correlation between line movement and who covers. So I don't really put too much into the rams going from +3 to 2.5 or the Chiefs going from -2.5 to -2. The rams move matters more because it was off a key number. 2.5 to 2 in the KC game is pretty much the same.
San Fran opened +5 apparently, then went to 6, then back down to 5.5.
Last week: 2-2 Plays, 0-2 Leans I think. I only had 4 officials, but I would have taken those 2 leans.
2021 Regular Season
36-29 plays, 25-31 leans