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I said I wasn't going to play the meaningless week 18 where 2/3 of the teams have nothing to play for, but I'll make some notes. Just some thoughts that I won't count against my season long record. Just curious to see how many I would have gotten right. Tough to take a week off though.
Oh yeah, last week revenge games went 4-1 ATS. So there was a little reversion to the mean. But there's 15 revenge games this week, basically all of them. So I'd be very selective this week.
Thoughts:
I'm just going in the order I see them on another web site.
Cincy +5.5 at Cleveland. Under 37. Burrow not playing in this week, and Baker out for the year. I'd take the points here since Cleveland blew them out in the first game. This is Keenum's second start of the season. He already won his first game, so the backup QB system doesn't apply. I don't even know CIncy's backup, nor do I really care. Lean Cincy here, and probably the under.
Chicago +4 at Minnesota. Over 44. Minnesota has played close games all season, and I don't see that changing. I believe Andy Dalton is starting at QB this week. Lean the over as well after the 17-9 first game. I'd probably take pick the over as the play between the 2.
Baltimore -3.5 vs. Pittsburgh. I think Pittsburgh comes out flat this game. The last time Pitt beat Baltimore Big Ben cried with emotion and they laid an egg vs. Minnesota on that Thursday game before coming back. After all they went through last week in Ben's last home game, I think they come out flat again despite being against a division rival. Huntley is also 4-0 ATS in games he's ended I believe. Dude is money to bet on. This is one of my top plays this week.
NY Giantsvs. Washington -7. I haven't bet on the Giants a single time since Jones got hurt. Because like I've been saying, I don't think Glennon has covered a game in his entire career, and that's not a joke. But I don't think Washington has beaten anyone badly this season. So if you were going to take the Giants ever, it may be this week. But it's Glennon so this would probably be on the bottom of my picks.
Out of all my picks, this one has been making me have second thoughts the most. Then I read about Joe Judge's comments about the Washington organization. That was a big misstep by an opponents coach, and Ron Rivera took it very personally. And I wouldn't want to be Mike Glennon or Jake Fromm this week when 2 of Washington's defensive players were the ones taking the shots from the coach.
So this is a no play, and probably a flip to Washington at this point.
Detroit +3 vs. Green Bay. Completely meaningless game for GB who have locked up the 1 seed. Rodgers and the starters are supposedly going to play, but I imagine it will only be a series or two. Packers pobably jump out to a 7-0 or 10-0 lead, then everyone sits. I see this as a close game where neither team wants to go to OT. The Packers won't have the motivation to come back, or the Lions will tie it late and go for 2 and the win. So the points are probably needed here.
New Orleans -3.5 at Altanta. I think New Orleans is still mathematically in it? Atlanta dominated the first meeting with Siemien. I think the Saints defense comes through this time.
Carolina +9.5 at Tampa Bay. I don't think Tampa Bay has anything to play for other than seeding. I'd chase Carolina here to finally cover a game. With all the injuries the Bucs have, I don't think they want to risk letting anyone get injured. They already lost Godwin, Fournette, and Ronald Jones. And we have the AB drama in Tampa. They're an old, beaten up team and I wouldn't lay any pts with them this week, let alone 9.5.
LV Raiders +3 vs. LA Chargers. The fans probably want the Chargers to get into the playoffs, but the fans don't always get what they want. The Chargers have an extremely explosive offense, but that run defense has been holding them back all year. After that bounceback last week vs. Denver I'll take the Raiders in the rematch.
Those would be my 8 plays this week if I was playing anything. It's funny, I picked all the games where the outcome doesn't really matter.
Games where teams have something to play for:
Indy vs. Jacksonville. Indy needs a win to get into the playoffs.
Tenn at Houston. Tenn needs to win to get the #1 overall seed.
New England at Miami. New England needs to win to clinch a playoff spot, and they're alive for the division.
Buffalo vs. Jets. Buffalo needs to win to lock up the division.
Arizona vs. Seattle. Arizona has a shot at the division, but I believe the Rams hold the tiebreaker.
New Orleans vs. Atlanta. New Orleans needs a win and a San Fran loss and maybe other help to get in.
LA Rams vs. San Fran. San Fran needs to win to get in. The Rams need to win to win the division.
LA Chargers at LV Raiders. Game of the week. Either team wins and they're in. Loser is out.
Last week 2-2 plays, 3-2 leans.
2021 Season
36-29 plays, 25-31 leans
Oh yeah, last week revenge games went 4-1 ATS. So there was a little reversion to the mean. But there's 15 revenge games this week, basically all of them. So I'd be very selective this week.
Thoughts:
I'm just going in the order I see them on another web site.
Cincy +5.5 at Cleveland. Under 37. Burrow not playing in this week, and Baker out for the year. I'd take the points here since Cleveland blew them out in the first game. This is Keenum's second start of the season. He already won his first game, so the backup QB system doesn't apply. I don't even know CIncy's backup, nor do I really care. Lean Cincy here, and probably the under.
Chicago +4 at Minnesota. Over 44. Minnesota has played close games all season, and I don't see that changing. I believe Andy Dalton is starting at QB this week. Lean the over as well after the 17-9 first game. I'd probably take pick the over as the play between the 2.
Baltimore -3.5 vs. Pittsburgh. I think Pittsburgh comes out flat this game. The last time Pitt beat Baltimore Big Ben cried with emotion and they laid an egg vs. Minnesota on that Thursday game before coming back. After all they went through last week in Ben's last home game, I think they come out flat again despite being against a division rival. Huntley is also 4-0 ATS in games he's ended I believe. Dude is money to bet on. This is one of my top plays this week.
NY Giantsvs. Washington -7. I haven't bet on the Giants a single time since Jones got hurt. Because like I've been saying, I don't think Glennon has covered a game in his entire career, and that's not a joke. But I don't think Washington has beaten anyone badly this season. So if you were going to take the Giants ever, it may be this week. But it's Glennon so this would probably be on the bottom of my picks.
Out of all my picks, this one has been making me have second thoughts the most. Then I read about Joe Judge's comments about the Washington organization. That was a big misstep by an opponents coach, and Ron Rivera took it very personally. And I wouldn't want to be Mike Glennon or Jake Fromm this week when 2 of Washington's defensive players were the ones taking the shots from the coach.
So this is a no play, and probably a flip to Washington at this point.
Detroit +3 vs. Green Bay. Completely meaningless game for GB who have locked up the 1 seed. Rodgers and the starters are supposedly going to play, but I imagine it will only be a series or two. Packers pobably jump out to a 7-0 or 10-0 lead, then everyone sits. I see this as a close game where neither team wants to go to OT. The Packers won't have the motivation to come back, or the Lions will tie it late and go for 2 and the win. So the points are probably needed here.
New Orleans -3.5 at Altanta. I think New Orleans is still mathematically in it? Atlanta dominated the first meeting with Siemien. I think the Saints defense comes through this time.
Carolina +9.5 at Tampa Bay. I don't think Tampa Bay has anything to play for other than seeding. I'd chase Carolina here to finally cover a game. With all the injuries the Bucs have, I don't think they want to risk letting anyone get injured. They already lost Godwin, Fournette, and Ronald Jones. And we have the AB drama in Tampa. They're an old, beaten up team and I wouldn't lay any pts with them this week, let alone 9.5.
LV Raiders +3 vs. LA Chargers. The fans probably want the Chargers to get into the playoffs, but the fans don't always get what they want. The Chargers have an extremely explosive offense, but that run defense has been holding them back all year. After that bounceback last week vs. Denver I'll take the Raiders in the rematch.
Those would be my 8 plays this week if I was playing anything. It's funny, I picked all the games where the outcome doesn't really matter.
Games where teams have something to play for:
Indy vs. Jacksonville. Indy needs a win to get into the playoffs.
Tenn at Houston. Tenn needs to win to get the #1 overall seed.
New England at Miami. New England needs to win to clinch a playoff spot, and they're alive for the division.
Buffalo vs. Jets. Buffalo needs to win to lock up the division.
Arizona vs. Seattle. Arizona has a shot at the division, but I believe the Rams hold the tiebreaker.
New Orleans vs. Atlanta. New Orleans needs a win and a San Fran loss and maybe other help to get in.
LA Rams vs. San Fran. San Fran needs to win to get in. The Rams need to win to win the division.
LA Chargers at LV Raiders. Game of the week. Either team wins and they're in. Loser is out.
Last week 2-2 plays, 3-2 leans.
2021 Season
36-29 plays, 25-31 leans