Tweet
Week 16 really got me down. I didn't have a horrible week, but I came out of last week feeling a bit discouraged. Not sure if I'll be playing anything this week. I'm definitely passing on crapshoot week 18. As usual, I'll get my thoughts together then go from there.
Revenge games went 3-2 last week, continuing to pay out. There were 3 third string QBs starting last week, and they went 0-3 ATS. Vegas was just giving money out of those.
Correction: Technically, Nick Foles is a third string QB, and he won straight up. Backup Quarterbacks in their first start went 1-4 last week in total, so I will be looking at some backups this week.
Plays:
Washington +4.5 (L3) vs. Philly (W3). Revenge Game. Rematch of two games ago where Philly was a -6.5 home favorite, and got pumped to 9.5/10 after Washington had to start their third string QB Gilbert. Washington got out to a 10-0 lead, but managed to not cover somehow. Good spot to play Washington on a bounceback after SNF.
I had a flashback to the last time Washington was embarassed on primetime. Philly and Michael Vick jumped out to a 35-0 lead, but Washington actually garbaged that game up and lost 59-28. The next week Washington played Carolina and won by 3. Philly is coming off a blowout win of their own against the Giants who I have not bet on since Glennon became the QB.
In case you're wondering, the Philly team with Michael Vick that creamed Washington on MNF won their next game vs. the Giants 27-17. I assume they covered.
San Fran -12 (L1) vs. Houston (W2). Almost faded Houston last week, but the Chargers were a top consensus play, and I've lost too many times with that horrid run defense. I think this is a good spot to take San Fran as a big favorite with the backup QB against a Houston team that's won back to back games. Trey Lance did not play well in relief of Jimmy against Arizona, but that was when Arizona was good. And the defense kept Arizona in check basically the entire game. I think the NFL would love a little QB controversy going into the playoffs. As 13.5 pt underdogs, I don't think Minnesota is a threat to get in anymore.
Miami +3.5 (W1, SU W7) at Tennessee (W1). Ever since Tenn lost Henry, it's been tough for me to figure who they are really. Of course they won their first couple of games without him, but they've lost badly to New England, blew a lead and lost to Pittsburgh, and probably got lucky that Jimmy G broke his finger when San Fran was up 10-0 on Thursday. Tenn is on a long week, Miami on a short week.
Tennessee has not played well against this division. They've lost to the Jets by 3 points, beat Buffalo by 3, and lost to New England by 23.
Miami has New England on deck, but with 2 games left and a playoff spot on the line, this is not a game to overlook.
Does the NFL want Miami in the playoffs though? I think Miami could take the spot in the playoffs the fans want the Chargers to have. But the Chargers are not going anywhere with that defense.
Cleveland -3 (W2) at Pittsburgh (L1). Revenge Game. Rematch of when Pittsburgh beat Cleveland as 5.5 point away favorite. Both teams mathematically still in the playoff hunt I think, but both don't really have a chance. Pittsburgh is actually a higher seed than Cleveland is right now. Cleveland covered last game, but Baker threw 4 INTs. Pitt looked awful last week, but it was against KC.I think Pitt will be a popular pick this week because they've tended to cover as underdogs this season, and because this is likely Big Ben's last home game.
When was the last time Cleveland swept a season series with Pitt? Probably hasn't happened in the Roethlesberger era. After they win again, it'll be a sign that Big Ben probably has to go.
I think Pittsburgh will be more "Up" for the Baltimore game next week than this one. It's a division rivalry, but one that Pitt has owned for almost 2 decades. Pitt/Baltimore is the biggest rivalry in football pretty much.
And I suppose the Stefanski after a loss system is still in play, because he was out with COVID for the game vs. the Raiders.
Leans:
Indy -7 (W3) vs. LV Raiders (W2). It's possible that Ehlinger plays at QB, but it's looking like Wentz will be in. I initially leaned Raiders last week, but after beating Denver's backup QB it changed things for me.
So last week my first place fantasy team put up a ton of points, but I ended up losing to some flukey dude that started Tee Higgins. So I have no doubt that my team will be amazing this week and that I would have won the championship. That means Jonathan Taylor is gonna have a HUGE day. And I saw that stat where Indy is like 8-0 when Taylor rushes for 100 yards.
And saying this for the 6th time this season, I expect Indy to to keep coming for the division. They won't get there, but they'll make it exciting. Tenn just has to beat Houston next week to lock up the division.
Denver +7.5 (L2) at LA Chargers (L2). Revenge game. Based on my system it would usually lean Chargers, but I'm going to ride with Denver again this week. The concern is that is almost makes too much sense to take over a touchdown with Denver in a division game, when the Chargers tend to play close games, and Denver beat them by 2 touchdowns in the first meeting. The Chargers are awful vs. the run, where Denver has two good RBs in Gordon and Williams, and a better pass defense than the Texans had last week. And the line moved past the key 7 number after opening at 6.5.
This is a play on Drew Lock mainly. After watching him in previous years, I know he's really inconsistent. He plays some really good games, and some horrible ones. Last week he played fine, but he needed to take more chances cuz that offensive gameplan really only produced 6 pts last week. Here's to hoping the coach lets him loose this week. An upper tier QB could really have a capable offense with Gordon, Williams, Jeudy, Sutton, and Fant. Or is this just the nail in the coffin for Denver going hard in the offseason for a Russell Wilson or a Deshaun Watson?
New England -16 (L2) vs. Jacksonville (L6). I almost never give chalk like this, but the line seems exorbitantly high for a team that's off 2 losses and didn't look good in either one of them. Jacksonville is a fantasy defense's dream matchup. They always give double digit points. James Robinson and Carlos Hyde are both on IR, so it'll be the third string RB on this one. New England's defense should take care of business.
There is one worry about this game. New England is playing Miami next week, in a game that all of a sudden matters. It would be a revenge game of opening day where they lost 17-16 at home.
Arizona +6 (L3) at Dallas (W4). The definition of two teams moving in the wrong direction. Arizona looked completely out of sorts on Saturday. I knew the loss of Hopkins would be big, but I didn't know it would be this big. Dallas could not have looked better in primetime on SNF. I believe this line opened at 3.5 and has been steamed all the way to 6. It's a lean for now, but having second thoughts.
Baltimore +6 (L1, L4 SU) vs. LA Rams (W4). Everything is well all of a sudden for the Rams. Uncharacteristic for a John Harbaugh Ravens team to lose 4 games in a row, but here we are, with their playoff lives on the line. I dunno how Baltimore's horrendous defense is going to stop Matt Stafford and Cooper Kupp, but this is just a consensus fade. Huntley is 3-0 ATS this season in games he finished, maybe he'll find a way.
I'll also be throwing Buffalo ML into a parlay just to increase the payout a tiny bit. But I won't count it since it's not really worth mentioning at -1000 odds.
No Plays:
Green Bay ML (-6.5) (L2) vs. Minnesota (L1). Revenge Game. Rematch of when Minnesota won 34-31 as a 1.5 pt home dog. I've been saying all year that Minnesota was gonna be in it for the playoff hunt until the end. Well the end is near. We've got a revenge game for GB, against a Minnesota team that's in a must-win situation.
Likely go with the ML just in case in a parlay for this one. I don't see Minnesota sweeping the season series, and I don't see Kirk Cousins winning and covering 3 primetime games in a row.
Too late to the window on this one with the Cousins news. This is a no play for me at 13.5, and I will look into possibly taking Minnesota with Mannion.
Last week 3-3 plays. 1-3 Leans
2020 Season
34-27 Plays. 22-29 Leans.
Revenge games went 3-2 last week, continuing to pay out. There were 3 third string QBs starting last week, and they went 0-3 ATS. Vegas was just giving money out of those.
Correction: Technically, Nick Foles is a third string QB, and he won straight up. Backup Quarterbacks in their first start went 1-4 last week in total, so I will be looking at some backups this week.
Plays:
Washington +4.5 (L3) vs. Philly (W3). Revenge Game. Rematch of two games ago where Philly was a -6.5 home favorite, and got pumped to 9.5/10 after Washington had to start their third string QB Gilbert. Washington got out to a 10-0 lead, but managed to not cover somehow. Good spot to play Washington on a bounceback after SNF.
I had a flashback to the last time Washington was embarassed on primetime. Philly and Michael Vick jumped out to a 35-0 lead, but Washington actually garbaged that game up and lost 59-28. The next week Washington played Carolina and won by 3. Philly is coming off a blowout win of their own against the Giants who I have not bet on since Glennon became the QB.
In case you're wondering, the Philly team with Michael Vick that creamed Washington on MNF won their next game vs. the Giants 27-17. I assume they covered.
San Fran -12 (L1) vs. Houston (W2). Almost faded Houston last week, but the Chargers were a top consensus play, and I've lost too many times with that horrid run defense. I think this is a good spot to take San Fran as a big favorite with the backup QB against a Houston team that's won back to back games. Trey Lance did not play well in relief of Jimmy against Arizona, but that was when Arizona was good. And the defense kept Arizona in check basically the entire game. I think the NFL would love a little QB controversy going into the playoffs. As 13.5 pt underdogs, I don't think Minnesota is a threat to get in anymore.
Miami +3.5 (W1, SU W7) at Tennessee (W1). Ever since Tenn lost Henry, it's been tough for me to figure who they are really. Of course they won their first couple of games without him, but they've lost badly to New England, blew a lead and lost to Pittsburgh, and probably got lucky that Jimmy G broke his finger when San Fran was up 10-0 on Thursday. Tenn is on a long week, Miami on a short week.
Tennessee has not played well against this division. They've lost to the Jets by 3 points, beat Buffalo by 3, and lost to New England by 23.
Miami has New England on deck, but with 2 games left and a playoff spot on the line, this is not a game to overlook.
Does the NFL want Miami in the playoffs though? I think Miami could take the spot in the playoffs the fans want the Chargers to have. But the Chargers are not going anywhere with that defense.
Cleveland -3 (W2) at Pittsburgh (L1). Revenge Game. Rematch of when Pittsburgh beat Cleveland as 5.5 point away favorite. Both teams mathematically still in the playoff hunt I think, but both don't really have a chance. Pittsburgh is actually a higher seed than Cleveland is right now. Cleveland covered last game, but Baker threw 4 INTs. Pitt looked awful last week, but it was against KC.I think Pitt will be a popular pick this week because they've tended to cover as underdogs this season, and because this is likely Big Ben's last home game.
When was the last time Cleveland swept a season series with Pitt? Probably hasn't happened in the Roethlesberger era. After they win again, it'll be a sign that Big Ben probably has to go.
I think Pittsburgh will be more "Up" for the Baltimore game next week than this one. It's a division rivalry, but one that Pitt has owned for almost 2 decades. Pitt/Baltimore is the biggest rivalry in football pretty much.
And I suppose the Stefanski after a loss system is still in play, because he was out with COVID for the game vs. the Raiders.
Leans:
Indy -7 (W3) vs. LV Raiders (W2). It's possible that Ehlinger plays at QB, but it's looking like Wentz will be in. I initially leaned Raiders last week, but after beating Denver's backup QB it changed things for me.
So last week my first place fantasy team put up a ton of points, but I ended up losing to some flukey dude that started Tee Higgins. So I have no doubt that my team will be amazing this week and that I would have won the championship. That means Jonathan Taylor is gonna have a HUGE day. And I saw that stat where Indy is like 8-0 when Taylor rushes for 100 yards.
And saying this for the 6th time this season, I expect Indy to to keep coming for the division. They won't get there, but they'll make it exciting. Tenn just has to beat Houston next week to lock up the division.
Denver +7.5 (L2) at LA Chargers (L2). Revenge game. Based on my system it would usually lean Chargers, but I'm going to ride with Denver again this week. The concern is that is almost makes too much sense to take over a touchdown with Denver in a division game, when the Chargers tend to play close games, and Denver beat them by 2 touchdowns in the first meeting. The Chargers are awful vs. the run, where Denver has two good RBs in Gordon and Williams, and a better pass defense than the Texans had last week. And the line moved past the key 7 number after opening at 6.5.
This is a play on Drew Lock mainly. After watching him in previous years, I know he's really inconsistent. He plays some really good games, and some horrible ones. Last week he played fine, but he needed to take more chances cuz that offensive gameplan really only produced 6 pts last week. Here's to hoping the coach lets him loose this week. An upper tier QB could really have a capable offense with Gordon, Williams, Jeudy, Sutton, and Fant. Or is this just the nail in the coffin for Denver going hard in the offseason for a Russell Wilson or a Deshaun Watson?
New England -16 (L2) vs. Jacksonville (L6). I almost never give chalk like this, but the line seems exorbitantly high for a team that's off 2 losses and didn't look good in either one of them. Jacksonville is a fantasy defense's dream matchup. They always give double digit points. James Robinson and Carlos Hyde are both on IR, so it'll be the third string RB on this one. New England's defense should take care of business.
There is one worry about this game. New England is playing Miami next week, in a game that all of a sudden matters. It would be a revenge game of opening day where they lost 17-16 at home.
Arizona +6 (L3) at Dallas (W4). The definition of two teams moving in the wrong direction. Arizona looked completely out of sorts on Saturday. I knew the loss of Hopkins would be big, but I didn't know it would be this big. Dallas could not have looked better in primetime on SNF. I believe this line opened at 3.5 and has been steamed all the way to 6. It's a lean for now, but having second thoughts.
Baltimore +6 (L1, L4 SU) vs. LA Rams (W4). Everything is well all of a sudden for the Rams. Uncharacteristic for a John Harbaugh Ravens team to lose 4 games in a row, but here we are, with their playoff lives on the line. I dunno how Baltimore's horrendous defense is going to stop Matt Stafford and Cooper Kupp, but this is just a consensus fade. Huntley is 3-0 ATS this season in games he finished, maybe he'll find a way.
I'll also be throwing Buffalo ML into a parlay just to increase the payout a tiny bit. But I won't count it since it's not really worth mentioning at -1000 odds.
No Plays:
Green Bay ML (-6.5) (L2) vs. Minnesota (L1). Revenge Game. Rematch of when Minnesota won 34-31 as a 1.5 pt home dog. I've been saying all year that Minnesota was gonna be in it for the playoff hunt until the end. Well the end is near. We've got a revenge game for GB, against a Minnesota team that's in a must-win situation.
Likely go with the ML just in case in a parlay for this one. I don't see Minnesota sweeping the season series, and I don't see Kirk Cousins winning and covering 3 primetime games in a row.
Too late to the window on this one with the Cousins news. This is a no play for me at 13.5, and I will look into possibly taking Minnesota with Mannion.
Last week 3-3 plays. 1-3 Leans
2020 Season
34-27 Plays. 22-29 Leans.