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Brutal heartbreaking loss on Tuesday with Seattle blowing the cover and costing me my parlay. I will never bet against a team hit with COVID again. This is really serious week for me for personal reasons, and I'm on a staycation, so I will leave no angle unturned this week. I have several possible plays this week and want to get everything down before I read other people's picks and get my judgment clouded.
Revenge games continue to do well. As the team that covered the first meeting went 4-2 ATS the second meeting last week. That's 8-4 the last 2 weeks, and like 10-0 the weeks prior. 18-4 on the season. But I will continue to bet on a reversion to the mean.
Plays:
Cleveland +7.5 (W1 or L5) at Green Bay (L1). Can't really tell if Cleveland covered because the line was all over the place. They covered by the day of closing line though. Looking at playing this game as a public fade, I just hate Cleveland games. This would be a play on Stefanski after a loss. I remember when someone pointed out that trend Arizona week, I got baited into it. They lost of course, but he hasn't lost another game after a loss since then. Green Bay has a solid hold on the public's best team in the NFC/NFL at the moment. It would also be a consensus fade if I played this game. The loss on Monday really hurt Cleveland's chances at the playoffs, but they're still alive for now. Especially if Baltimore were to beat Cincinnati, which I actually think they will.
Cleveland Next Up: At Pittsburgh (Line Out +1), Vs. Cincinnati
Green Bay Next Up: Vs. Minnesota (-6.5 Revenge Game Lost), At Detroit (Revenge Game Won)
- I expect Green Bay to win and cover that Minnesota revenge game. People will talk about motivation, as it's probably going to be a must win for Minnesota, and they beat them once already, but I think Green Bay gets it done. And Detroit should be a complete blowout.
This actually isn't Stefanski after a loss, because he was out last game with COVID. That's a late realization for me.
Denver PICKEM (L1) vs. LV Raiders (L3 depending on the line you got). Revenge Game. They played earlier this season, and Raiders won by 10 on the road as a 5 pt underdog. Bridgewater got a nasty concussion last week and has already been ruled out. Funny every time Bridgewater gets hurt I tell my friend Drew Lock is gonna win it. Lock has played pretty badly in relief this season, and that's why I'm really starting to like this pick a lot. Drew Lock is probably the most hot and cold QB in the league, even more than Kirk Cousins. He (with the help of that defense) can beat any team like 31-3, but he can also put up a stinker on any given week. With the line moving from Denver +1.5 to PICKEM I really like this pick.
Both teams still in the playoff hunt, but neither likely to get in. Both teams have tough last 2 games. Raiders play at Colts and vs. Chargers, and Denver at Chargers and vs. KC. This is likely Derek Carr's last season with the Raiders.
Denver Next Up: at LA Chargers (+6) (Revenge game Won), Vs. KC
Raiders Next Up: at Indy (+8.5), vs. LA Chargers (Revenge Game Won)
Note: Look out for the Raiders next week.
Washington +10.5 (L2 maybe) at Dallas (W3). Revenge Game. This is a rematch of a couple of weeks ago when Dallas won 27-20 as a 6.5 pt favorite (from 4.5 because of COVID players), and Dallas almost blew the cover very late. I picked this game out pretty much after the first game ended. Predicted the line would be 10.5 and here it is. I'm going to pause for a second though, because getting double digits in one of the biggest football rivalries in the league is a lot. And people have already seen what a rivalry can do last SNF (Saints beating Bucs).
Heinicke and Allen were both placed on the COVID list very late last week, so we're still not sure about the QB situation and how much practice they'll be able to get in this week.
Heinicke was activated off the COVID list on Thursday, so he's had 2 days of practice.
Also lean over 46.5. Total in the first meeting was 48 and it hit 47.
At this point I think I'm going to pass on Washington (No Play) and go with over 47. Dallas plays great offensively at home, and I think I was watching ESPN and they were saying something is wrong with Dak because the offense has not been humming lately.
Dallas Next Up: vs. Arizona (-2.5), at Philly (Revenge Game Won) - This will be SNF and should matter****
Washington Next Up: Vs. Philly (+3) (Revenge Game Lost), at NY Giants (Revenge Game Won SU, Lost ATS)
I've decided to no play either side of this game. Dallas's offense is too explosive, and I see lot of people on Washington getting double digits in a division rivalry. Also, double digit favorite games tend to go under at a high rate. This could be one of the ones that goes over, but I think it's a bad idea to be fighting trends sometimes.
Here's a late edit. I've decided to play the over. Just too hard for me to choose on other games.
New Orleans +3 (W2) vs. Miami (L1). I was about to type in Saints -3, but I went to check the line and it looks like it's +1.5 now. Checked for Kamara, nothing. Checked for Taysom Hill, and it looks like he landed on the COVID list and is out. Trevor Simien as well. I'm reading that Ian Book will be starting. I have the Jets last week to end Miami's 5 game covering streak, and they did with a miracle pick 6 of Tua after blowing that 10-0 lead. Miami still won and has quietly gone won 6 games in a row. Both teams are 7-7 and in the playoff hunt.
The question for me is does the NFL want the Saints in the playoffs this season to potentially knock Brady off in a third meeting? Or would another rematch be in their best interests?
New Orleans Next Up: vs. Carolina (Line -7), at Atlanta
Miami Next Up: at Tenn (+3 Line Out), Vs. New England (Revenge Game Won)
I'm going to go with New Orleans. Sean Payton said Book had a good week of practice. I'm going to take him at his word for it. Coaches typically don't say that as a smoke screen. I read an article that said Ian Book prides himself on accuracy and ball placement. If he can play a relatively mistake free game, the defense should keep them in it against Miami.
Leans:
Carolina +10.5 (L4) vs. Tampa Bay (L1). Other than Cam's first game, he has looked awful. Carolina has lost 4 in a row and hasn't covered any of them. Tampa is coming off the shutout on SNF. Tampa lost Godwin for the year with a torn ACL, Evans with a Hamstring, and Fournette with a hamstring. The line is very high, so there's nothing fishy about it. I have a feeling that the public will be thinking "Brady just got lost and shut out, he's going to be mad, I'd hate to be the next team he plays." He's still got Gronkowski and Antonio Brown will be coming back this week. This is more of just a hunch play. You'll probably know who's gonna cover in the first drive or two. Brady's either going to clicking and on a mission, or he's going to show he's human while struggling to move the ball without his primary weapons.
I picked Carolina to cover one of the two upcoming matchups this season. But i'm not sure if it will be this one, or the possible meaningless one in week 18.
This pick barely missed out being a play. I was talked out of it by a friend. Getting double digits at home in the division is a lot. And that's with Brady missing Godwin, Evans, and Fournette.
Minnesota +3 (W2) vs. LA Rams (W3). There's 3 things that I've been saying for over a month now. I said Minnesota would be in the hunt for the playoffs until the end, that Pittsburgh would be right there until the end, and that Indy would be coming for that division. Not sure why I don't bet all 3 teams every week. The cardinals have opened the door for the Rams to win the division now. I believe Minnesota is holding onto the last playoff spot.
This primarily be two things. That Minnesota almost always plays 1 possession games, and that they were the winner of MNF. I think the winner of MNF covered like the first 10 games of the season. I need to go back and check that trend to see how it's been doing lately.
Also a lean to OVER 48.5.
Minnesota Next Up: at Green Bay (+6.5), vs. Chicago (Revenge Game Won)
LA Rams Next Up: at Baltimore (-3), vs. San Francisco (Revenge Game Lost)
I've decided to pass on the side on this game. No Minnesota, but I have a lean to over 48.5.
Baltimore +7 (W2) at Cincinnati (W1). Revenge Game. Can't make an official pick on this one until I know whether Lamar Jackson is playing. This is a rematch of earlier in the season, where Cincy destroyed them as a 6.5 pt road underdog. The line has been adjusted to account for that, the Lamar injury, and Baltimore being decimated on defense. This is a small lean here. Baltimore has covered 2 in a row, but has lost 3 in a row. When the line is adjusted properly in a revenge game, I usually lay off. Lamar hasn't practiced all week, but I don't wanna get a crappy line again because he's not priced all the way out yet.
Cincinnati would be up 1 game with the ultimate tiebreaker winning both meetings. So that would essentially clinch the division for cincy with a win.
Baltimore plays LA Rams and Pittsburgh both at home. Cincinnati plays vs. KC and at Cleveland. So if Baltimore lost this game, they'd have to win both their games and have Cincy lose both theirs to win the division.
Baltimore: vs. LA Rams (+3), Vs. Pittsburgh
Cincy: vs. KC (+4 Line Out), at Cleveland (Revenge Game Lost)
When I read that Huntley was out as well, I really had no choice to play Baltimore and their third string QB. Consider it a hedge against New Orleans on Monday. One of them will cover.
No Pick Yet:
I have this strange prediction that Buffalo and Indy will meet again in the playoffs. But the only way that really happens is if one of them wins the division, and one of them doesn't. So I'm waiting for the results of Thursday Night Titans game, and maybe the Saturday games before I make an official decision on these.
Buffalo +2.5 (W1) at New England (L1). Revenge Game. I'll admit how boneheaded I was to switch my Indy pick to NE last week, forgetting that NE essentially plays Buffalo for the division this week. Will never speak of that mistake again. Initial lean was Buffalo here, but I believe it will probably be a pretty popular public play. Buffalo is a public team, with very explosive offense and a top 2 defense in the league. New England has a top 1-2 defense in the league, but no real playmakers on offense. I think Buffalo could be a popular play and I may have to avoid it if it is.
Buffalo Next Up: Atlanta (Line is -13.5 already Out), NY Jets
New England Next Up: Vs. Jacksonville (-16 Line Out), at Miami
Indy (1.5) at Arizona. This pick will depend on Tennessee. If Tennessee loses and Indy wins, they would be tied in the division, but Tenn holds the ultimate tiebreaker of both head to head wins. If Tennessee wins, it makes it less likely Indy can win the division. Arizona is like 0-4 in playoff clinching games too, and I think losing Hopkins is a HUGE blow. Arizona may crawl into the playoffs at this point.
So if Tennessee and Arizona win, Indy will be a playoff wild card, and I predict Buffalo to win the division. If Tennessee loses and Indy wins, I expect the opposite. Indy wins the division, and New England clinches the division with a win this week.
Indy Next Up: Vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-8.5 line out), at Jacksonville
AZ Next Up: At Dallas (+2.5 Line Out) Vs. Seattle (Revenge Game Won)
Tenn Next Up: Vs Miami (-3.5 Line Out), At Houston
With Tennessee's win on Thursday, that basically wraps up the division IMO. Sure they can be tied going into week 18, but Houston playing for a top pick in the draft in week 18, and Tennessee just needing to win, one of these next 2 games. That puts Indy firmly in the wild card, win or lose Saturday.
So no play on Indy. Lean to Buffalo +2.5
In case you don't have time to read all that I'll sum it up.
Plays: Cleveland +7.5, Denver PICK, DAL/WASH OVER 46.5, New Orleans +3
Leans: Carolina +10.5, MIN/LAR OVER 48.5, Baltimore +7, Buffalo +2.5
Longshot Parlay: Baltimore +6.5, Atlanta -6.5, Carolina +8.5, LAR/MIN Over 48.5, Philly -9.5, Denver PICK, DAL/WASH OVER 46.5
Last week 3-3 plays I guess. 2-2 leans.
2021 Season:
31-24 Plays, 21-26 Leans
Revenge games continue to do well. As the team that covered the first meeting went 4-2 ATS the second meeting last week. That's 8-4 the last 2 weeks, and like 10-0 the weeks prior. 18-4 on the season. But I will continue to bet on a reversion to the mean.
Plays:
Cleveland +7.5 (W1 or L5) at Green Bay (L1). Can't really tell if Cleveland covered because the line was all over the place. They covered by the day of closing line though. Looking at playing this game as a public fade, I just hate Cleveland games. This would be a play on Stefanski after a loss. I remember when someone pointed out that trend Arizona week, I got baited into it. They lost of course, but he hasn't lost another game after a loss since then. Green Bay has a solid hold on the public's best team in the NFC/NFL at the moment. It would also be a consensus fade if I played this game. The loss on Monday really hurt Cleveland's chances at the playoffs, but they're still alive for now. Especially if Baltimore were to beat Cincinnati, which I actually think they will.
Cleveland Next Up: At Pittsburgh (Line Out +1), Vs. Cincinnati
Green Bay Next Up: Vs. Minnesota (-6.5 Revenge Game Lost), At Detroit (Revenge Game Won)
- I expect Green Bay to win and cover that Minnesota revenge game. People will talk about motivation, as it's probably going to be a must win for Minnesota, and they beat them once already, but I think Green Bay gets it done. And Detroit should be a complete blowout.
This actually isn't Stefanski after a loss, because he was out last game with COVID. That's a late realization for me.
Denver PICKEM (L1) vs. LV Raiders (L3 depending on the line you got). Revenge Game. They played earlier this season, and Raiders won by 10 on the road as a 5 pt underdog. Bridgewater got a nasty concussion last week and has already been ruled out. Funny every time Bridgewater gets hurt I tell my friend Drew Lock is gonna win it. Lock has played pretty badly in relief this season, and that's why I'm really starting to like this pick a lot. Drew Lock is probably the most hot and cold QB in the league, even more than Kirk Cousins. He (with the help of that defense) can beat any team like 31-3, but he can also put up a stinker on any given week. With the line moving from Denver +1.5 to PICKEM I really like this pick.
Both teams still in the playoff hunt, but neither likely to get in. Both teams have tough last 2 games. Raiders play at Colts and vs. Chargers, and Denver at Chargers and vs. KC. This is likely Derek Carr's last season with the Raiders.
Denver Next Up: at LA Chargers (+6) (Revenge game Won), Vs. KC
Raiders Next Up: at Indy (+8.5), vs. LA Chargers (Revenge Game Won)
Note: Look out for the Raiders next week.
Washington +10.5 (L2 maybe) at Dallas (W3). Revenge Game. This is a rematch of a couple of weeks ago when Dallas won 27-20 as a 6.5 pt favorite (from 4.5 because of COVID players), and Dallas almost blew the cover very late. I picked this game out pretty much after the first game ended. Predicted the line would be 10.5 and here it is. I'm going to pause for a second though, because getting double digits in one of the biggest football rivalries in the league is a lot. And people have already seen what a rivalry can do last SNF (Saints beating Bucs).
Heinicke and Allen were both placed on the COVID list very late last week, so we're still not sure about the QB situation and how much practice they'll be able to get in this week.
Heinicke was activated off the COVID list on Thursday, so he's had 2 days of practice.
Also lean over 46.5. Total in the first meeting was 48 and it hit 47.
At this point I think I'm going to pass on Washington (No Play) and go with over 47. Dallas plays great offensively at home, and I think I was watching ESPN and they were saying something is wrong with Dak because the offense has not been humming lately.
Dallas Next Up: vs. Arizona (-2.5), at Philly (Revenge Game Won) - This will be SNF and should matter****
Washington Next Up: Vs. Philly (+3) (Revenge Game Lost), at NY Giants (Revenge Game Won SU, Lost ATS)
I've decided to no play either side of this game. Dallas's offense is too explosive, and I see lot of people on Washington getting double digits in a division rivalry. Also, double digit favorite games tend to go under at a high rate. This could be one of the ones that goes over, but I think it's a bad idea to be fighting trends sometimes.
Here's a late edit. I've decided to play the over. Just too hard for me to choose on other games.
New Orleans +3 (W2) vs. Miami (L1). I was about to type in Saints -3, but I went to check the line and it looks like it's +1.5 now. Checked for Kamara, nothing. Checked for Taysom Hill, and it looks like he landed on the COVID list and is out. Trevor Simien as well. I'm reading that Ian Book will be starting. I have the Jets last week to end Miami's 5 game covering streak, and they did with a miracle pick 6 of Tua after blowing that 10-0 lead. Miami still won and has quietly gone won 6 games in a row. Both teams are 7-7 and in the playoff hunt.
The question for me is does the NFL want the Saints in the playoffs this season to potentially knock Brady off in a third meeting? Or would another rematch be in their best interests?
New Orleans Next Up: vs. Carolina (Line -7), at Atlanta
Miami Next Up: at Tenn (+3 Line Out), Vs. New England (Revenge Game Won)
I'm going to go with New Orleans. Sean Payton said Book had a good week of practice. I'm going to take him at his word for it. Coaches typically don't say that as a smoke screen. I read an article that said Ian Book prides himself on accuracy and ball placement. If he can play a relatively mistake free game, the defense should keep them in it against Miami.
Leans:
Carolina +10.5 (L4) vs. Tampa Bay (L1). Other than Cam's first game, he has looked awful. Carolina has lost 4 in a row and hasn't covered any of them. Tampa is coming off the shutout on SNF. Tampa lost Godwin for the year with a torn ACL, Evans with a Hamstring, and Fournette with a hamstring. The line is very high, so there's nothing fishy about it. I have a feeling that the public will be thinking "Brady just got lost and shut out, he's going to be mad, I'd hate to be the next team he plays." He's still got Gronkowski and Antonio Brown will be coming back this week. This is more of just a hunch play. You'll probably know who's gonna cover in the first drive or two. Brady's either going to clicking and on a mission, or he's going to show he's human while struggling to move the ball without his primary weapons.
I picked Carolina to cover one of the two upcoming matchups this season. But i'm not sure if it will be this one, or the possible meaningless one in week 18.
This pick barely missed out being a play. I was talked out of it by a friend. Getting double digits at home in the division is a lot. And that's with Brady missing Godwin, Evans, and Fournette.
Minnesota +3 (W2) vs. LA Rams (W3). There's 3 things that I've been saying for over a month now. I said Minnesota would be in the hunt for the playoffs until the end, that Pittsburgh would be right there until the end, and that Indy would be coming for that division. Not sure why I don't bet all 3 teams every week. The cardinals have opened the door for the Rams to win the division now. I believe Minnesota is holding onto the last playoff spot.
This primarily be two things. That Minnesota almost always plays 1 possession games, and that they were the winner of MNF. I think the winner of MNF covered like the first 10 games of the season. I need to go back and check that trend to see how it's been doing lately.
Also a lean to OVER 48.5.
Minnesota Next Up: at Green Bay (+6.5), vs. Chicago (Revenge Game Won)
LA Rams Next Up: at Baltimore (-3), vs. San Francisco (Revenge Game Lost)
I've decided to pass on the side on this game. No Minnesota, but I have a lean to over 48.5.
Baltimore +7 (W2) at Cincinnati (W1). Revenge Game. Can't make an official pick on this one until I know whether Lamar Jackson is playing. This is a rematch of earlier in the season, where Cincy destroyed them as a 6.5 pt road underdog. The line has been adjusted to account for that, the Lamar injury, and Baltimore being decimated on defense. This is a small lean here. Baltimore has covered 2 in a row, but has lost 3 in a row. When the line is adjusted properly in a revenge game, I usually lay off. Lamar hasn't practiced all week, but I don't wanna get a crappy line again because he's not priced all the way out yet.
Cincinnati would be up 1 game with the ultimate tiebreaker winning both meetings. So that would essentially clinch the division for cincy with a win.
Baltimore plays LA Rams and Pittsburgh both at home. Cincinnati plays vs. KC and at Cleveland. So if Baltimore lost this game, they'd have to win both their games and have Cincy lose both theirs to win the division.
Baltimore: vs. LA Rams (+3), Vs. Pittsburgh
Cincy: vs. KC (+4 Line Out), at Cleveland (Revenge Game Lost)
When I read that Huntley was out as well, I really had no choice to play Baltimore and their third string QB. Consider it a hedge against New Orleans on Monday. One of them will cover.
No Pick Yet:
I have this strange prediction that Buffalo and Indy will meet again in the playoffs. But the only way that really happens is if one of them wins the division, and one of them doesn't. So I'm waiting for the results of Thursday Night Titans game, and maybe the Saturday games before I make an official decision on these.
Buffalo +2.5 (W1) at New England (L1). Revenge Game. I'll admit how boneheaded I was to switch my Indy pick to NE last week, forgetting that NE essentially plays Buffalo for the division this week. Will never speak of that mistake again. Initial lean was Buffalo here, but I believe it will probably be a pretty popular public play. Buffalo is a public team, with very explosive offense and a top 2 defense in the league. New England has a top 1-2 defense in the league, but no real playmakers on offense. I think Buffalo could be a popular play and I may have to avoid it if it is.
Buffalo Next Up: Atlanta (Line is -13.5 already Out), NY Jets
New England Next Up: Vs. Jacksonville (-16 Line Out), at Miami
Indy (1.5) at Arizona. This pick will depend on Tennessee. If Tennessee loses and Indy wins, they would be tied in the division, but Tenn holds the ultimate tiebreaker of both head to head wins. If Tennessee wins, it makes it less likely Indy can win the division. Arizona is like 0-4 in playoff clinching games too, and I think losing Hopkins is a HUGE blow. Arizona may crawl into the playoffs at this point.
So if Tennessee and Arizona win, Indy will be a playoff wild card, and I predict Buffalo to win the division. If Tennessee loses and Indy wins, I expect the opposite. Indy wins the division, and New England clinches the division with a win this week.
Indy Next Up: Vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-8.5 line out), at Jacksonville
AZ Next Up: At Dallas (+2.5 Line Out) Vs. Seattle (Revenge Game Won)
Tenn Next Up: Vs Miami (-3.5 Line Out), At Houston
With Tennessee's win on Thursday, that basically wraps up the division IMO. Sure they can be tied going into week 18, but Houston playing for a top pick in the draft in week 18, and Tennessee just needing to win, one of these next 2 games. That puts Indy firmly in the wild card, win or lose Saturday.
So no play on Indy. Lean to Buffalo +2.5
In case you don't have time to read all that I'll sum it up.
Plays: Cleveland +7.5, Denver PICK, DAL/WASH OVER 46.5, New Orleans +3
Leans: Carolina +10.5, MIN/LAR OVER 48.5, Baltimore +7, Buffalo +2.5
Longshot Parlay: Baltimore +6.5, Atlanta -6.5, Carolina +8.5, LAR/MIN Over 48.5, Philly -9.5, Denver PICK, DAL/WASH OVER 46.5
Last week 3-3 plays I guess. 2-2 leans.
2021 Season:
31-24 Plays, 21-26 Leans