NFL Week 3 Discussion/Circle (bleep)

[Q-Unit]

At first glance:

New England -9 @ Buffalo

- cardinal sin to take road chalk in division game but for some reason I think there will be plenty of love for Buffalo given what they've accomplished the past two weeks. That being said, I think NE's D can be had but against teams that don't have elite Ds, they will/can run up the score. I put this one out there because I can see a lot of people backing buff with this type of line. I usually look to fade NE but here, I might consider eating that chalk.

Miami +2.5 @ Cleveland

- I think Miami's better than their 0-2 suggests. They hung with NE for 3.5 quarters, and got beat by a Houston team that's always expected to make some noise. I expect them to beat Cleveland on the road. Tough test, but I think they're the better team here.

Detroit @ Minnesota +3.5

- Love the Lions this year, but giving points on the road in a division game, and Minnesota is still a good team just finding ways to lose. I think Minny wins this one huge. I didn't expect TB to come back yesterday (I had them) and I didn't see the game, but seemed to me, Minny dominated early on, which I know means nothing for the ending score but just because Detroit beat TB and TB beat Minny doesn't mean this will happen here. It prolly will, but I like Minny in this spot.

New York Jets @ Oakland +3.5

- I watched some parts of the Oakland/Buff game, and Jason Campbell looks better than anyone can hope. At least to me, he isn't quite there yet, but he certainly looks comfortable, and I like Oakland in this spot v. the Jets. Jets prone to TOs, and despite what the Jags tried to do, I think Oak can run and throw on them.

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay -1.5

- On one hand, TB pulled that game out of their asses it seems like, and on the other hand, the Falcons were handed theirs with Vick going down, and some very opportunistic momentum shift, otherwise the Eagles had them dead to rights last night.

Overall, I've watched both Falcons game this year and they don't seem that good. Very inconsistent on both sides of the ball despite their talent. I'm not too sold on this one, but at first glance I like TB.

[Polar Ice]

Sup bud. Heard some crickets so came to see what was going on...

Haven't looked at all the games yet, but I tend to agree on Minny. I wouldn't say they win huge but I feel like Detroit has played better than what they are. This would be more of a fade of Detroit than a play on Minny.

Personally I like Cincy -2. SF has looked better than they should - despite taking the 'Boys to overtime, they were outgained 266 yards and in week 1 they beat Seattle with another misleading score IMO. Now they go on their first road game while Cincy is hosting their first home game so looking for them to come out strong.

GL this week :thumbs:

[Underdog88]

I too like Cincy to get the home win. Dalton is playing well and the Bengals haven't been turning the ball over. Has to be deflating to the Niners to lose in ot then jump on the road. Cincy actually has a run game, unlike seattle/Dallas.

[Underdog88]

I have to disagree with Minny as a play this week. Detroit is the better all around club imo. Minny has been horrid vs the pass and they can't hold a lead, pretty bad combo when facing the Lions.

[Underdog88]

I have a ton of thoughts on the Patriots/Bills game. Buffalo just lost Roscoe Parrish for the season, but really it's not that big of a blow to the offense. He had no catches week one and one last week, plus the emergence of Chandler at te plus fred/CJ out of the backfield is a better outlet than Roscoe anyway. If anything this will help get David Nelson get more touches, I think he is a much more promising wr.

Brady is an expert at exploiting weakness, and the Bills have them defensively. I've watched both Bills and both Patriots games, and I think NE has a slightly better defense, if only by way of injury. McGee out is hurting Buffalo big time in the secondary, which is not what you want when facing Brady. McKelvin got beat so many times vs Oakland it was disgusting. Kelsay at linebacker presents so many opportunities for NE- no way he covers Gronkowski let alone Woodhead out of the backfield.

I just don't see how this game doesn't go over the total. The Bills offense is clicking, the Patriots offense let Henne throw all over them, then Rivers did as well. The Patriots have made it clear they aren't taking the foot off the pedal, which is always a good thing when looking over. If the Bills are going to win this game, they will have to come out and make a statement early. Leaning over the total and Bills 1sth. Maybe a little dabble on the 1sth ml.

[Q-Unit]

I have a ton of thoughts on the Patriots/Bills game. Buffalo just lost Roscoe Parrish for the season, but really it's not that big of a blow to the offense. He had no catches week one and one last week, plus the emergence of Chandler at te plus fred/CJ out of the backfield is a better outlet than Roscoe anyway. If anything this will help get David Nelson get more touches, I think he is a much more promising wr.

Brady is an expert at exploiting weakness, and the Bills have them defensively. I've watched both Bills and both Patriots games, and I think NE has a slightly better defense, if only by way of injury. McGee out is hurting Buffalo big time in the secondary, which is not what you want when facing Brady. McKelvin got beat so many times vs Oakland it was disgusting. Kelsay at linebacker presents so many opportunities for NE- no way he covers Gronkowski let alone Woodhead out of the backfield.

I just don't see how this game doesn't go over the total. The Bills offense is clicking, the Patriots offense let Henne throw all over them, then Rivers did as well. The Patriots have made it clear they aren't taking the foot off the pedal, which is always a good thing when looking over. If the Bills are going to win this game, they will have to come out and make a statement early. Leaning over the total and Bills 1sth. Maybe a little dabble on the 1sth ml.

I would lean on the over as well in addition to your thoughts because overall, I think most decent teams can score on the Pats despite what NE does on offense.

[hodown]

This may be a little simplistic but is there anyway the Chiefs or Colts stay competitive here? Colts are atleast at home so I see that angle but the Chiefs have looked horrific up to this point and they're traveling to San Diego who will be looking to rebound.

[DukiesBaby]

Colts & Chiefs team totals under for the week...

normally the points in the nfl is the way to go, underdogs usually hold their own, unlike college football, but these two teams specifically might be that bad....


Denver +7.5

7.5 underdogs? to titans? really? why because they beat baltimore? this is alot of points



5 Home dogs at +3.5


Raiders +3.5

Vikings +3.5

Seattle +3.5

St Louis +3.5

Chicago +3.5


i think all have value, but i like the bears the most out of all 5, packers defense looked suspect last week vs carolina, or Carolina is that good :beerbang: :laughing: anyways Bears won the division last year, and this game is in bear country, off a loss, in primetime, i like bears in this situation to win straight up...

[Billy The Kid]

agree on the bears dukies...def think I will be on them. There o-line has been horrific so I expect green bay to put tons of pressure...but forte is one of the best backs in the league catching the football, probably be seeing a **** ton of screens

also agree in the other dogs having lots of value although the only one I don't think I'll have the stones to play is Minny. Detroit looks to hungry and are putting up points, leading me to believe Mcnabb is going to have to make multiple plays in the passing game to get the victory. That's somthing I don't feel to comfortable laying my cash on.

Anyone else think Miami is in a must win. B2B losses at home now traveling on the road against a suspect cleveland team. They can't afford to go 0-3 imo...interested on thoughts as they are looking like a solid play to me right now.

As far as the SD goes I think thats a game I stay away from in general. Yes SD is due to bounce back but they still havn't proven they are over their typical early season slumps that they tend to go threw. I also usually like to play on teams that are effected by a well publisized injury as the line is usually inflated. KC falls into that category...not sure if I'll play it though

[Q-Unit]

Anyone else think Miami is in a must win. B2B losses at home now traveling on the road against a suspect cleveland team. They can't afford to go 0-3 imo...interested on thoughts as they are looking like a solid play to me right now.

I like Miami, I think playing CLE will be refreshing compared to NE and HOU although if they lose this one, I'll be scared to back them again (at which point they'll of course start to cover lol)

[Underdog88]

God help me I think I have to play KC and the Colts. I definitely won't be on the other side of these games. The Steelers on the road laying too much. SD laying too much, and everyone is trying to compare the situation to the Steelers one last week. I don't think it's close, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them play a tight one with KC.


Bills team total is 23. Pretty sure I'll be on it. Falcons tt o21.5 is a likely play as well. I don't think there will be a letdown, but the Falcons secondary is a joke

[Underdog88]

Ended up playing the Falcons. Maybe it bites me in the ass but I thought TB was due for a regression this season and I'm sticking to it. Atlanta needs every win possible to get in the playoffs (I think they do), IMO these are the divisional games you must win to get there. Peterson ran all over TB, and I think Turner does today. TB's run game isn't good enough right now to keep Atlanta guessing. I think the Falcons will bring the heat on Freeman and force some turnovers....

[Underdog88]

I also played on the Ravens. Horrible spot they were in last week coming off such a big loss. This week they should be able to pound the run vs the Rams D, which is allowing 177 ypg. Just picking the winner and hoping the spread doesn't come into play....

[Stifler's Mom]

A few thoughts on games i'm not sure i've seen much mentioned about this week (and also a comment on Detroit/Minny):

** The NY Giants have looked AWFUL this year, even in victory last week.

Does anyone else think a motivated Eagles team with far superior talent blows them completely off the field this week? +9 imho looks to pull in $$ from people looking for the G men to "keep it close" in a rivalry, but if the odds makers really believed in NYG at all, this would be 7 or less.

** IMHO Carolina isn't fit to be laying points to anyone either. Everyone is talking up Newton's first 2 games being 400+ yards, etc, but he made plenty of mistakes too. I wouldn't be the least bit shocked to see him struggle mightily today.

** Seattle couldn't have looked worst their first two ROAD games (where they always suck donkey) and Arizona went into (imho overrated) Washington last week and almost got the win, this after beating media darling Cam Newton and co at home in week 1. Point is i doubt you could have a match up where one team is more over rated and one is more under rated than this one. Seattle is a great home dog play, imho.

** Betting against a vastly improved and highly motivated Detroit team at a short -3.5 line against a declining Viqueens team with a worthless QB just because they used to stink doesn't make a lot of sense, imho. Pick the winner, and why would Minny be the winner here? If Det can control A.P., i highly doubt McNugget is gonna throw all over em. Looking like a Det -3.5 play for me on that one.

[Underdog88]

wow stif, I'm on every side you mentioned with the exception of the Hawks, and I am likely on the ML there. I also added the Bills, got a generous 8.5. Thinking of playing a little ML hoping for a +300 though.... Hopefully the Bills come out hot