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Very late start on the write-ups this week as I have been busy as heck the past few days. Nice week last week as I got Minnesota on Thursday, then got the nice ML win the Rams which was my largest wager of the season. I'm going to try to do what I did last week and try to be more selective. That was a heartbreaker on Cleveland though, up 21-3 and blow my 4 game parlay. Luckily it wasn't for a lot of money last week.
But part of the reason why I took so long is because all this COVID has really screwed everything up. I dunno if lines are too high or too short and who's in and who's out, and who is about to get postponed.
Note: Revenge games continues to be on a tear last week. Teams that covered the first meeting went 4-2 (luckily the Rams were one that avenged the loss). I don't have the exact number, but I think teams that covered the first meeting are like 14-2 this season.
Might be a little sloppy this week as I'm short on time and if I'm going to play Saturday night I need to leave in a few hours.
Plays:
Indy (W1) vs. New England +2.5 (W7), and OVER 44.5. I saw this line out on Friday last week and liked the Colts. I also liked the fact that I could get reduced juice on the ML because New England was -1 at the time. Then it went to pickem, then Indy -1, then 1.5, then 2, then 2.5, then 2.5 -115. I continue to bet the Colts because I have been saying that Indy is going to give Tenn a run for their money on the division, even though they were behind 2 games, and Tenn holding the ultimate tiebreaker of beating them twice already. Then I saw that Indy is actually in the playoffs if the season ended today, so they don't need the division. Both teams coming off their bye so that evens out. New England coming off MNF where they won despite only throwing 3 passes. Makes me like the over in this game, as the Mac Jones haters may keep doubting him.
Just a probability thing though. The Primetime football game has gone over 4 games in a row. And this would make it 5, and the total just dropped a point overnight. So Mac Jones is 3-0 ATS in primetime this season, and it's gone under all 3 games as well. If we revert back to earlier in the season where New England was actually losing games, when they lost the games would go low. Also, I read Indy is averaging 30 pts per game by themselves in the last several games. So with a total of 44.5 I should probably lay off. I might not though.
I forgot to mention that even with the loss last week, Buffalo is still alive for the division. Two games behind, with 1 game at New England left to play. New England could lose to Indy on Saturday, and if Buffalo wins out, they would hold the secondary tie break of having the better division record. New England would have lost 2 games in the division (Buffalo and Miami).
Last minute flip. I’m changing my pick to New England +2.5.
New Orleans +11.5 (W1) at Tampa Bay (W4). Revenge Game. This is a revenge game, and the system would have a slight lean to Tampa in this case. But I kinda like New Orleans to cover both meetings this season, as they did last season. I don't see risk putting this game in early either as New Orleans really doesn't have any "star" players outside of Kamara, who has had COVID before, and he hasn't tested positive even though his 2 backups did. Tampa Bay is rolling along at 10-3 and covered 4 in a row coming into the game. New Orleans snapped a 5 game losing streak with their win against the Jets last week.
Some funny reasoning behind this pick. I mean on paper you really think TB would be all over them. Tampa Bay is very good against the run, but they can be beaten against the pass. New Orleans runs the ball well, but they can't throw, and Taysom Hill even has a broken finger.
Last year Tampa went 11-5 and lost 5 games. They're up to 3 losses now, and I don't see a single loss left on their schedule other than this one, and a rematch against Carolina the last game of the season. I could see them losing here (don't expect it though).
Seattle +6 (W2) at LA Rams (W2). Revenge Game. Kinda hoping Seattle repeats what Washington did. After Washington lost to Denver as one of my best picks of the week ( I had Washington), I refused to bet them afterwards. I almost did the same with Seattle after that MNF loss to Washington, but they've covered a couple in a row. The Rams have also covered 2 in a row after that 5 game ATS losing streak. Rams just had that huge win on MNF. I'm continuing to bet the Revenge System to even out over the longer run. This is a rematch of when the Rams won and covered as a 2.5 pt favorite at Seattle. This was the game where Russell Wilson got injured and Geno came in and looked okay but couldn't pull off the backdoor.
This game was postponed until Tuesday, but I don't think there's any harm in putting it in soon if you liked Seattle. Geno is a capable backup QB, and the Rams are the ones missing the key players. Seattle is missing Lockett though.
NY Jets +9.5 (L2) at Miami (W5). I spoke about this game last week with my New Orleans write-up. I didn't expect the line to be so high though, so it's not high on the leans list. The COVID situation also complicates things, as it opened at 7, and it's already up to 9.5 and that's with Miami having players on the COVID list. I believe Gaskin and Ahmed will be able to play though. But Waddle got his diagnosis too late and he's probably out. I also don't like that Miami has covered the last 7 meetings.
Baltimore +7.5 (W1) vs. Green Bay (W2). When i saw the line I assumed that they were pricing in Huntley at QB. They probably are. Unfortunately, I forgot that Huntley already started a game this season against Chicago and won. So that was a goof on my part. Not sure if I would have played it if 1) Lamar Jackson is playing, that like is way too high in that case, and 2) if I knew that this wasn't Huntley's first start. The backup QB system is only for the first game.
It's not a horrible pick though. The Packers coming off their late cover on SNF and looked great offensively. I assume if Huntley plays and the line stays the same that Green Bay will be a popular teaser pick.
Baltimore plays Cincy next week, and that game has far greater implications than this game. They'll probably go into that game with either similar records, or Baltimore will be one game up. And a loss next week gives Cincy the division lead by way of double tiebreaker for winning both meetings.
The more I think about it, the more I realized i goofed by making this pick. But I'll own it. Hope it works out.
Leans:
Arizona -12.5 (L1) at Detroit (L1). The Detroit covering machine was fun while it lasted, but they got their first win and should be satisfied with that. Detroit would be getting darn near 20 pts if this was in Arizona. Hopkins is out for at least the regular season, and Connor is banged up, but Edmunds is coming back from IR. Detroit is weak vs. the run. The only concern is Kingsbury trying to keep Murray's ankles safe in a game they should win pretty easily. Because Detroit isn't bad against the pass, and Murray has been making mistakes for a guy that's in the MVP conversation.
Tampa Bay / New Orleans UNDER 45.5. I put this in as a backup to my New Orleans bet. I think New Orleans and Under can hit, but if Tampa avenges the loss I think it goes under. I think it goes under if either team covers actually.
Jacksonville -4.5 (L4) vs. Houston (L3). This is the new coach system, but rarely is the new coach a favorite. And it's Jacksonville, and it's drama filled. I guess this is what you would call the toilet bowl game. Two 2-11 teams playing to not give up the higher draft pick. Jacksonville already has their franchise QB though, and Detroit is still a game behind them in the W column cuz of that tie. Tiny lean to Jacksonville here, but I probably won't play it at all.
Cincinnati +3 (L2) at Denver (W1). I liked Cincinnati more before it went to the full 3 pts. Now that Cincy is getting a full 3 it gives me pause because Cincy has shown flashes of brilliance all season, and they've got a big game next week vs. Baltimore which could be for the division. This may be another New England situation where it's a lookahead spot knowing this game doesn't matter all that much when the next game means everything. Pittsburgh's season is pretty much over at this point I think. A loss to the Titans would be the nail in the coffin, and Pittsburgh is a very popular pick tomorrow, that's why I laid off that game.
Already looked ahead of Week 16, and there's some goodies in there. I'm excited, but one week at a time.
Last week 3-1 plays. 1-3 Leans.
2021 Season:
28-21 Plays, 19-24 Leans
But part of the reason why I took so long is because all this COVID has really screwed everything up. I dunno if lines are too high or too short and who's in and who's out, and who is about to get postponed.
Note: Revenge games continues to be on a tear last week. Teams that covered the first meeting went 4-2 (luckily the Rams were one that avenged the loss). I don't have the exact number, but I think teams that covered the first meeting are like 14-2 this season.
Might be a little sloppy this week as I'm short on time and if I'm going to play Saturday night I need to leave in a few hours.
Plays:
Indy (W1) vs. New England +2.5 (W7), and OVER 44.5. I saw this line out on Friday last week and liked the Colts. I also liked the fact that I could get reduced juice on the ML because New England was -1 at the time. Then it went to pickem, then Indy -1, then 1.5, then 2, then 2.5, then 2.5 -115. I continue to bet the Colts because I have been saying that Indy is going to give Tenn a run for their money on the division, even though they were behind 2 games, and Tenn holding the ultimate tiebreaker of beating them twice already. Then I saw that Indy is actually in the playoffs if the season ended today, so they don't need the division. Both teams coming off their bye so that evens out. New England coming off MNF where they won despite only throwing 3 passes. Makes me like the over in this game, as the Mac Jones haters may keep doubting him.
Just a probability thing though. The Primetime football game has gone over 4 games in a row. And this would make it 5, and the total just dropped a point overnight. So Mac Jones is 3-0 ATS in primetime this season, and it's gone under all 3 games as well. If we revert back to earlier in the season where New England was actually losing games, when they lost the games would go low. Also, I read Indy is averaging 30 pts per game by themselves in the last several games. So with a total of 44.5 I should probably lay off. I might not though.
I forgot to mention that even with the loss last week, Buffalo is still alive for the division. Two games behind, with 1 game at New England left to play. New England could lose to Indy on Saturday, and if Buffalo wins out, they would hold the secondary tie break of having the better division record. New England would have lost 2 games in the division (Buffalo and Miami).
Last minute flip. I’m changing my pick to New England +2.5.
New Orleans +11.5 (W1) at Tampa Bay (W4). Revenge Game. This is a revenge game, and the system would have a slight lean to Tampa in this case. But I kinda like New Orleans to cover both meetings this season, as they did last season. I don't see risk putting this game in early either as New Orleans really doesn't have any "star" players outside of Kamara, who has had COVID before, and he hasn't tested positive even though his 2 backups did. Tampa Bay is rolling along at 10-3 and covered 4 in a row coming into the game. New Orleans snapped a 5 game losing streak with their win against the Jets last week.
Some funny reasoning behind this pick. I mean on paper you really think TB would be all over them. Tampa Bay is very good against the run, but they can be beaten against the pass. New Orleans runs the ball well, but they can't throw, and Taysom Hill even has a broken finger.
Last year Tampa went 11-5 and lost 5 games. They're up to 3 losses now, and I don't see a single loss left on their schedule other than this one, and a rematch against Carolina the last game of the season. I could see them losing here (don't expect it though).
Seattle +6 (W2) at LA Rams (W2). Revenge Game. Kinda hoping Seattle repeats what Washington did. After Washington lost to Denver as one of my best picks of the week ( I had Washington), I refused to bet them afterwards. I almost did the same with Seattle after that MNF loss to Washington, but they've covered a couple in a row. The Rams have also covered 2 in a row after that 5 game ATS losing streak. Rams just had that huge win on MNF. I'm continuing to bet the Revenge System to even out over the longer run. This is a rematch of when the Rams won and covered as a 2.5 pt favorite at Seattle. This was the game where Russell Wilson got injured and Geno came in and looked okay but couldn't pull off the backdoor.
This game was postponed until Tuesday, but I don't think there's any harm in putting it in soon if you liked Seattle. Geno is a capable backup QB, and the Rams are the ones missing the key players. Seattle is missing Lockett though.
NY Jets +9.5 (L2) at Miami (W5). I spoke about this game last week with my New Orleans write-up. I didn't expect the line to be so high though, so it's not high on the leans list. The COVID situation also complicates things, as it opened at 7, and it's already up to 9.5 and that's with Miami having players on the COVID list. I believe Gaskin and Ahmed will be able to play though. But Waddle got his diagnosis too late and he's probably out. I also don't like that Miami has covered the last 7 meetings.
Baltimore +7.5 (W1) vs. Green Bay (W2). When i saw the line I assumed that they were pricing in Huntley at QB. They probably are. Unfortunately, I forgot that Huntley already started a game this season against Chicago and won. So that was a goof on my part. Not sure if I would have played it if 1) Lamar Jackson is playing, that like is way too high in that case, and 2) if I knew that this wasn't Huntley's first start. The backup QB system is only for the first game.
It's not a horrible pick though. The Packers coming off their late cover on SNF and looked great offensively. I assume if Huntley plays and the line stays the same that Green Bay will be a popular teaser pick.
Baltimore plays Cincy next week, and that game has far greater implications than this game. They'll probably go into that game with either similar records, or Baltimore will be one game up. And a loss next week gives Cincy the division lead by way of double tiebreaker for winning both meetings.
The more I think about it, the more I realized i goofed by making this pick. But I'll own it. Hope it works out.
Leans:
Arizona -12.5 (L1) at Detroit (L1). The Detroit covering machine was fun while it lasted, but they got their first win and should be satisfied with that. Detroit would be getting darn near 20 pts if this was in Arizona. Hopkins is out for at least the regular season, and Connor is banged up, but Edmunds is coming back from IR. Detroit is weak vs. the run. The only concern is Kingsbury trying to keep Murray's ankles safe in a game they should win pretty easily. Because Detroit isn't bad against the pass, and Murray has been making mistakes for a guy that's in the MVP conversation.
Tampa Bay / New Orleans UNDER 45.5. I put this in as a backup to my New Orleans bet. I think New Orleans and Under can hit, but if Tampa avenges the loss I think it goes under. I think it goes under if either team covers actually.
Jacksonville -4.5 (L4) vs. Houston (L3). This is the new coach system, but rarely is the new coach a favorite. And it's Jacksonville, and it's drama filled. I guess this is what you would call the toilet bowl game. Two 2-11 teams playing to not give up the higher draft pick. Jacksonville already has their franchise QB though, and Detroit is still a game behind them in the W column cuz of that tie. Tiny lean to Jacksonville here, but I probably won't play it at all.
Cincinnati +3 (L2) at Denver (W1). I liked Cincinnati more before it went to the full 3 pts. Now that Cincy is getting a full 3 it gives me pause because Cincy has shown flashes of brilliance all season, and they've got a big game next week vs. Baltimore which could be for the division. This may be another New England situation where it's a lookahead spot knowing this game doesn't matter all that much when the next game means everything. Pittsburgh's season is pretty much over at this point I think. A loss to the Titans would be the nail in the coffin, and Pittsburgh is a very popular pick tomorrow, that's why I laid off that game.
Already looked ahead of Week 16, and there's some goodies in there. I'm excited, but one week at a time.
Last week 3-1 plays. 1-3 Leans.
2021 Season:
28-21 Plays, 19-24 Leans
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