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Week 12 I said I don’t got a clue, and it showed. Went 1-4 on my plays. I knew it would be a bad week, so I actually decreased my wagers a little bit. This week isn’t that much better, but I’ve got a few that I’m looking at.
Detroit +7.5 (W3) vs. Minnesota (L1). Minnesota with the letdown loss after beating Green Bay. I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that I thought Detroit would probably win this game. Having a bit of second thoughts since Detroit covered the first meeting and the line has been adjusted higher when accounting for home field. But when a team is 0-10 I guess you can’t be giving too little points. 7 is a good number for a teaser buster. Detroit is 6-1 ATS as an underdog of 4 or more. They cover as long as they aren’t a chic pick to win the game. I’ll have to monitor whether too many people are calling for the upset this week. Just like the Chargers, Minnesota plays a ton of close games. They have 5 wins and only one is by more than 7 pts.
Detroit is also dealing with a shoulder injury to Deandre Swift, who is their best offensive weapon. So they can’t throw the ball, can’t run the ball, how are they gonna win? I dunno, but they probably cover somehow.
I’d really like to see how popular Minnesota teasers will be this week. Revenge games are usually my bread and butter, but I believe the team that covered the first game this season is like 5-0 in the second game. Something is going to change eventually. There will be a ton more revenge games towards the end of season.
Houston +10.5 (L1) vs. Indy (L1). Revenge Game. A rematch from earlier this season where Indy beat the snot out of Houston with Davis Mills 31-3. I’ve been high on Indy all season, and said they would keep coming for that division. They won’t be able to gain a game on Tenn his week as they’re on their bye. Indy plays New England next game, but they have their bye before. Indy is off that heartbreaking loss to Tampa Bay. My memory isn’t good enough to remember trends about the game after a loss like that.
I just hesitate to bet on Tyrod Taylor because you never know who will show up. Will Houston be the first revenge team to cover this season? The line is lower than the last game, but it’s higher when you adjust for home field. Even the public knows that though.
New England (W6) at Buffalo -2.5 (W1). The Patriots are atop of the division and playing on the road against many fans’ Super Bowl favorite. Is it too late to hop onto the Patriot’s covering train at 6 games? Perhaps it’s time to stop doubting New England. It’s a high powered offense vs. a smothering defense. People may point to the Miami and Jacksonville games where the defenses shut Buffalo down as reasons to take New England. But how about a shootout for once?
Lean New England, but also have a hunch about the over. Buffalo lost Tredavious White to a torn ACL last week. Who has the better offense? Obviously Buffalo. Who has the better defense? Buffalo is actually ranked higher, but New England is first in points allowed, Buffalo is second. I’ll fade the numbers here.
But also factor in that the home team has killed it for most of the season on MNF. So maybe the best play is just the over. The total is pretty low though, I thought it was higher when I saw it before.
So where is the public playing the teaser that night? New England obviously with the +9-10, but do they go with over 38 or under 50?
New England has their bye next week***
So there's actually a couple of systems that like Buffalo in this spot, so I'm gonna roll with them and change my pick to Buffalo.
There is also suppose to be a snow storm or something for this game. When Brady was on the Patriots those games always went over. Dunno what Mac can do. But Mac is already 2-0 in primetime this season.
LA Chargers +3 (L3) at Cincinnati (W2). Does Cincinnati have their third letdown spot of the year this week? Week 3 they beat Pittsburgh, then go down 14-0 at home against Jacksonville, before pulling out the 3 pt win. Week 7 they blew out Baltimore, then proceeded to lose to the Jets with their then no name backup QB. Cincinnati has actually flipped the script this year. After being a bad road team for years, they’re 2-3 ATS at home, and 4-2 ATS on the road. This pick is less about the Chargers who played pretty crappy last week, and more about a young Cincinnati team that hasn’t really found a way to follow up big wins just yet. They give up big games to running backs, and Austin Ekeler is one of the most unappreciated backs in the league.
Washington +1.5 (W3) at Las Vegas (W1). I hesitate to take a team that has covered 3 in a row, but the line looks low to me. The Raiders are off a long week after just beating Dallas on Thanksgiving. The line opened at 2.5 and dropped to 1.5. I believe they may be accounting for Darren Waller being out for the game. This happened earlier in the season when the Raiders were playing Philly and they beat them pretty badly. It was only close at the end because of garbage time points. Washington won on MNF, but they didn't exactly look good doing it.
Washington has come out of their bye by cleaning up a lot of their mistakes. They've been in many games this season, but somehow don't come away with points in the red zone. Washington is dealing with injuries themselves. I believe Landon Collins is out. JD Mckissic is out as well. I would argue those two injuries are worse for Washington than the Waller injury is for the Raiders.
Leans:
LA Rams -12.5 (L5) vs. Jacksonville. #1 consensus pick which is usually a fade or a no play for me. But it can't lose every week right? I think we're up to like 7-8 weeks in a row that the top consensus pick has lost. Not a good spot for the Rams generally who usually play down to their competition, but they really need to start winning some games cuz they're in a rut. I see a 34-10 type game here.
Pittsburgh +4.5 (L1) vs. Baltimore (W2). I don't really like Pittsburgh all that much this week. Baltimore did not look good on SNF, yet they come in as a 4.5 pt road favorite against Pittsburgh who looked god awful last week. Heard a rumor that Big Ben is telling people privately that this is his last season. Well that's a big surprised. We've known Ben was done since like week 2. Small lean to Pittsburgh here, but I don't really like it.
Seattle +3.5 (L3) vs. San Francisco (W3). Yeah, I’m speechless to how bad Seattle has become. Geno Smith was 3-0 ATS before Wilson came back. If I were to take Seattle, it would merely be a chase. No other reason. I admire Russell Wilson for trying to play through that injury, but I read about what it was. I forget what it's called, but the tendons in his finger cause the finger to rest at a right angle or something. Explains why he's having so much trouble throwing a football.
Denver +9.5 (W1) at Kansas City (W2). Chiefs are back atop the division again. Maybe back to their non-covering ways again as well. People like Andy Reid off a bye, but he doesn't have to cover spreads. The Chiefs have won as small favorites lately, so this is probably inflated because of those wins. Bridgewater is banged up, but something about Drew Lock. He has those games that come out of nowhere, and I think if he has to come in they will find a way to cover somehow.
No Plays:
Miami -6.5 (W4) vs. NY Giants (W1). I see there’s a high consensus on Miami for this game. The line is about fair, Miami maybe should be giving the hook. I mentioned last week Miami’s tendency to go on these long ATS covering streaks. I’ll copy that here.
2016 they covered 5 in a row. 2017 they got 2 and then pushed. 2018 3 in a row. 2019 5 in a row. 2020 5 in a row and 4 in a row.
Is it time for the fade, or are they getting to 5 and then the fade? Miami rematches the Jets next week, and that will be a high consensus game as well, and a REVENGE game that is so due to hit.
The Giants are at least coming off a win against Philly who had been on a roll. It wasn’t one of their crappy weeks. So I’m not sure why the consensus is so high on this game.
Line went up 3 points because Mike Glennon is starting for the Giants. I still kinda like Miami. Glennon lost his first start, and he's been around a long time. He's okay, but he's not very good. Probably good for 13-17 points, but with a total of 39.5 that may be keeping it close for the cover.
I forgot that Glennon actually didn't start the game after Daniel Jones got a concussion. So this is his first start and would fall under the backup QB system. But the system generally is for relative unknown QBs, so I will move this to a no play.
Philly -5 (L1) at NY Jets (W1). I think over the years I’ve been caught trying to play the Jets after a week where they looked pretty good and have regretted it. I usually regret betting the jets in general. They haven’t been good since the Mark Sanchez days shockingly. Jets got the win last week again. Houston was in their letdown spot after the big Tennessee win. Hurts had an awful game last week throwing 3 picks and only completing 45% of his passes. He also came out of the game with an injured ankle, so that’s something to monitor as the week goes by.
The Jets are the worst in the league against the run though. And with Hurts, Sanders, and Scott, Philly actually has an excess of RB options. They actually made Gainwell inactive a couple of games ago. The Jets have lost a fumble in 5 straight games, and in those 5 games they’ve also thrown 9 interceptions. If you take out last game, they averaged 2.25 interceptions per game. Looks like the coast is clear from the public so far on this game, as there are other favorites on shorter lines that are more enticing.
Philly has their bye next week***
I made Philly a no play because Hurts is doubtful to play. The line has dropped 2 pts since the announcement, but I expect it to drop further when it's official tomorrow. Since I put my plays in on Saturday night, I'm not gonna stick myself like a crappy line.
My "No Plays" have been on fire lately though.
As always, post subject to change up until game time.
Last week 1-4 plays, 2-2 Leans, 1-0 No Plays.
2021 Season
22-18 Plays, 15-20 Leans
Detroit +7.5 (W3) vs. Minnesota (L1). Minnesota with the letdown loss after beating Green Bay. I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that I thought Detroit would probably win this game. Having a bit of second thoughts since Detroit covered the first meeting and the line has been adjusted higher when accounting for home field. But when a team is 0-10 I guess you can’t be giving too little points. 7 is a good number for a teaser buster. Detroit is 6-1 ATS as an underdog of 4 or more. They cover as long as they aren’t a chic pick to win the game. I’ll have to monitor whether too many people are calling for the upset this week. Just like the Chargers, Minnesota plays a ton of close games. They have 5 wins and only one is by more than 7 pts.
Detroit is also dealing with a shoulder injury to Deandre Swift, who is their best offensive weapon. So they can’t throw the ball, can’t run the ball, how are they gonna win? I dunno, but they probably cover somehow.
I’d really like to see how popular Minnesota teasers will be this week. Revenge games are usually my bread and butter, but I believe the team that covered the first game this season is like 5-0 in the second game. Something is going to change eventually. There will be a ton more revenge games towards the end of season.
Houston +10.5 (L1) vs. Indy (L1). Revenge Game. A rematch from earlier this season where Indy beat the snot out of Houston with Davis Mills 31-3. I’ve been high on Indy all season, and said they would keep coming for that division. They won’t be able to gain a game on Tenn his week as they’re on their bye. Indy plays New England next game, but they have their bye before. Indy is off that heartbreaking loss to Tampa Bay. My memory isn’t good enough to remember trends about the game after a loss like that.
I just hesitate to bet on Tyrod Taylor because you never know who will show up. Will Houston be the first revenge team to cover this season? The line is lower than the last game, but it’s higher when you adjust for home field. Even the public knows that though.
New England (W6) at Buffalo -2.5 (W1). The Patriots are atop of the division and playing on the road against many fans’ Super Bowl favorite. Is it too late to hop onto the Patriot’s covering train at 6 games? Perhaps it’s time to stop doubting New England. It’s a high powered offense vs. a smothering defense. People may point to the Miami and Jacksonville games where the defenses shut Buffalo down as reasons to take New England. But how about a shootout for once?
Lean New England, but also have a hunch about the over. Buffalo lost Tredavious White to a torn ACL last week. Who has the better offense? Obviously Buffalo. Who has the better defense? Buffalo is actually ranked higher, but New England is first in points allowed, Buffalo is second. I’ll fade the numbers here.
But also factor in that the home team has killed it for most of the season on MNF. So maybe the best play is just the over. The total is pretty low though, I thought it was higher when I saw it before.
So where is the public playing the teaser that night? New England obviously with the +9-10, but do they go with over 38 or under 50?
New England has their bye next week***
So there's actually a couple of systems that like Buffalo in this spot, so I'm gonna roll with them and change my pick to Buffalo.
There is also suppose to be a snow storm or something for this game. When Brady was on the Patriots those games always went over. Dunno what Mac can do. But Mac is already 2-0 in primetime this season.
LA Chargers +3 (L3) at Cincinnati (W2). Does Cincinnati have their third letdown spot of the year this week? Week 3 they beat Pittsburgh, then go down 14-0 at home against Jacksonville, before pulling out the 3 pt win. Week 7 they blew out Baltimore, then proceeded to lose to the Jets with their then no name backup QB. Cincinnati has actually flipped the script this year. After being a bad road team for years, they’re 2-3 ATS at home, and 4-2 ATS on the road. This pick is less about the Chargers who played pretty crappy last week, and more about a young Cincinnati team that hasn’t really found a way to follow up big wins just yet. They give up big games to running backs, and Austin Ekeler is one of the most unappreciated backs in the league.
Washington +1.5 (W3) at Las Vegas (W1). I hesitate to take a team that has covered 3 in a row, but the line looks low to me. The Raiders are off a long week after just beating Dallas on Thanksgiving. The line opened at 2.5 and dropped to 1.5. I believe they may be accounting for Darren Waller being out for the game. This happened earlier in the season when the Raiders were playing Philly and they beat them pretty badly. It was only close at the end because of garbage time points. Washington won on MNF, but they didn't exactly look good doing it.
Washington has come out of their bye by cleaning up a lot of their mistakes. They've been in many games this season, but somehow don't come away with points in the red zone. Washington is dealing with injuries themselves. I believe Landon Collins is out. JD Mckissic is out as well. I would argue those two injuries are worse for Washington than the Waller injury is for the Raiders.
Leans:
LA Rams -12.5 (L5) vs. Jacksonville. #1 consensus pick which is usually a fade or a no play for me. But it can't lose every week right? I think we're up to like 7-8 weeks in a row that the top consensus pick has lost. Not a good spot for the Rams generally who usually play down to their competition, but they really need to start winning some games cuz they're in a rut. I see a 34-10 type game here.
Pittsburgh +4.5 (L1) vs. Baltimore (W2). I don't really like Pittsburgh all that much this week. Baltimore did not look good on SNF, yet they come in as a 4.5 pt road favorite against Pittsburgh who looked god awful last week. Heard a rumor that Big Ben is telling people privately that this is his last season. Well that's a big surprised. We've known Ben was done since like week 2. Small lean to Pittsburgh here, but I don't really like it.
Seattle +3.5 (L3) vs. San Francisco (W3). Yeah, I’m speechless to how bad Seattle has become. Geno Smith was 3-0 ATS before Wilson came back. If I were to take Seattle, it would merely be a chase. No other reason. I admire Russell Wilson for trying to play through that injury, but I read about what it was. I forget what it's called, but the tendons in his finger cause the finger to rest at a right angle or something. Explains why he's having so much trouble throwing a football.
Denver +9.5 (W1) at Kansas City (W2). Chiefs are back atop the division again. Maybe back to their non-covering ways again as well. People like Andy Reid off a bye, but he doesn't have to cover spreads. The Chiefs have won as small favorites lately, so this is probably inflated because of those wins. Bridgewater is banged up, but something about Drew Lock. He has those games that come out of nowhere, and I think if he has to come in they will find a way to cover somehow.
No Plays:
Miami -6.5 (W4) vs. NY Giants (W1). I see there’s a high consensus on Miami for this game. The line is about fair, Miami maybe should be giving the hook. I mentioned last week Miami’s tendency to go on these long ATS covering streaks. I’ll copy that here.
2016 they covered 5 in a row. 2017 they got 2 and then pushed. 2018 3 in a row. 2019 5 in a row. 2020 5 in a row and 4 in a row.
Is it time for the fade, or are they getting to 5 and then the fade? Miami rematches the Jets next week, and that will be a high consensus game as well, and a REVENGE game that is so due to hit.
The Giants are at least coming off a win against Philly who had been on a roll. It wasn’t one of their crappy weeks. So I’m not sure why the consensus is so high on this game.
Line went up 3 points because Mike Glennon is starting for the Giants. I still kinda like Miami. Glennon lost his first start, and he's been around a long time. He's okay, but he's not very good. Probably good for 13-17 points, but with a total of 39.5 that may be keeping it close for the cover.
I forgot that Glennon actually didn't start the game after Daniel Jones got a concussion. So this is his first start and would fall under the backup QB system. But the system generally is for relative unknown QBs, so I will move this to a no play.
Philly -5 (L1) at NY Jets (W1). I think over the years I’ve been caught trying to play the Jets after a week where they looked pretty good and have regretted it. I usually regret betting the jets in general. They haven’t been good since the Mark Sanchez days shockingly. Jets got the win last week again. Houston was in their letdown spot after the big Tennessee win. Hurts had an awful game last week throwing 3 picks and only completing 45% of his passes. He also came out of the game with an injured ankle, so that’s something to monitor as the week goes by.
The Jets are the worst in the league against the run though. And with Hurts, Sanders, and Scott, Philly actually has an excess of RB options. They actually made Gainwell inactive a couple of games ago. The Jets have lost a fumble in 5 straight games, and in those 5 games they’ve also thrown 9 interceptions. If you take out last game, they averaged 2.25 interceptions per game. Looks like the coast is clear from the public so far on this game, as there are other favorites on shorter lines that are more enticing.
Philly has their bye next week***
I made Philly a no play because Hurts is doubtful to play. The line has dropped 2 pts since the announcement, but I expect it to drop further when it's official tomorrow. Since I put my plays in on Saturday night, I'm not gonna stick myself like a crappy line.
My "No Plays" have been on fire lately though.
As always, post subject to change up until game time.
Last week 1-4 plays, 2-2 Leans, 1-0 No Plays.
2021 Season
22-18 Plays, 15-20 Leans
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