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Another good week by most standards last week, but I can't seem to nail it unfortunately. Kind of pointless to start a post with no plays, but that's how I feel this week. I looked at the board and didn't find a single play that I liked. So i'll leave this post as a placeholder and revise it this weekend as I see fit.
Parenthesis are the current W/L streak ATS.
Plays:
Pittsburgh +3.5 (W1) at Cincinnati (W1). These teams played already and Cincinnati won as a road underdog. Revenge games were like 0-4 ATS this season last time I checked. The media and me think Pittsburgh sucks, but they find a way to stay around .500. Pittsburgh plays Baltimore next week, but it shouldn't be a look ahead, this is a division rival as well. And Cincy is fresh off their thrashing of the Raiders who just beat Dallas in Dallas.
Carolina -2.5 (L1) at Miami (W3). Bad teams do go on 3 game ATS covering streaks, but I think it usually ends around there. That's what we have with Miami, who is getting 2.5 against Carolina who is 2-6 in their last 8 games. Getting points against Cam Newton who probably doesn't even know the playbook yet. I think I like this -2.5 road favorite more than the Chargers, so I may drop that game.
Going through previous years, it appears that Miami does have these long ATS covering streaks. 2016 they covered 5 in a row. 2017 they got 2 and then pushed. 2018 3 in a row. 2019 5 in a row. 2020 5 in a row and 4 in a row. So despite the write-up, I think I'm flipping to Miami on this game. I'll fade the streak if they can get to 5.
Cleveland +3.5 (L2) at Baltimore (W1). I hate Cleveland games because it always feels like Vegas is overvaluing them, and they usually do. Last year Baltimore beat Cleveland at home 38-6 as a 7 pt. Favorite. Then beat them again by 5 in Cleveland. And Cleveland just got blown out by New England, then barely escaped winning at home against Detroit with Boyle as the QB. The Ravens just beat Chicago, who beat Detroit with their starting QB pretty badly, without Lamar Jackson and Hollywood Brown. Baltimore is about the same as last year talent wise, but Lamar was playing like crap often last season. The Browns are arguably worse than last year with Baker having that bad shoulder, Landry injured, and Odell no longer on the team. I guess the Brownies are gonna sucker me into putting my money on them this week.
Tampa Bay -3 (W1) at Indy (W1). I was gonna lean Indy here, because they've been good to me this season. But Indy as a 3 pt home dog? They have one less win than Tampa, and they just steamrolled the Bills by 26 pts last week on the road. Could be Brady inflation, but that line is kinda high. Should be a pickem game at best. But I think it should be more like Indy -1 TBH. So I guess small lean to Tampa here.
Last year despite winning the SB, Tampa went 11-5 in the regular season. They probably do about the same this season. They'll probably lose to Buffalo, and there's gonna be one more WTF game again this season. Probably to the Saints or at Carolina or something.
I'm realizing there's way too many road favorites this week, so maybe this is Vegas's gimme and you take Indy.
I'm switching my lean to Indy here.
Philly (W2) vs NY Giants +3.5 (L1). I may pair the two combos of this game and TB/Indy. It's a similar scenario. Team giving 3 on the road which seems kinda high. The Giants will be without Sheperd and Toney. Philly is the only one that can make it interesting in the division. If they win this week, they can pick up a game on Dallas and only be down 2 games with a rematch with Dallas a long way away in week 18.
I'm only taking Philly for probability sake since I'm taking Indy in the other game.
Leans:
NY Jets +2.5 (L3) at Houston (W1). Zach Wilson's first game back, and Michael Carter out. Line seems a bit low to me. Houston has played well with Tyrod Taylor. What are they 2-2 with him as a starter? 0-6 in other games. The Jets are 1-5 when Zach Wilson starts. And Houston is off that huge win at Tennessee. So why is Houston not even giving a field goal in this game?
I'll leave this as a lean, but I won't play it. I'm not that desperate to bet on the Jets. I've only done it once this season and lost.
Washington PICK (W2) vs. Seattle (L2). Normal instinct would be to take Seattle and think that they won't lose 3 in a row, but this line is dropping somehow. Amazing that Seattle's offense has been in a rut for several weeks with the Wilson, DK Metcalf, and Lockett. Home teams have done pretty well on MNF this season though. Maybe a reversion to the mean is coming, but I'm playing the line movement on this one.
LA Chargers -2.5 (L2) at Denver (L1). Yeah, seems like a square play. It's also the highest consensus game of the week. Well I think the top consensus pick has lost like 6-7 weeks in a row, so it's kinda due. I think the line is too high. Chargers giving pts on the road to a division rival who has one less win than they do? Should be Denver -1 or Pickem at worst. Lucky backdoor cover by Pittsburgh last week. But if you've been following, you know that the Chargers never wins big. When they win it's usually by 4 or less. This falls in that category. Denver is also off a bye, so that makes them being a home dog even more peculiar.
I take caution because it's such a high consensus play though. I also think the total is kinda high at 47 for a Denver game. But then again, Pitt and LA Chargers combined for 78 last game.
This would have been a play, but for some reason my book has this game of the board. So I put it as a lean.
San Fran -3 (W2) vs. Minnesota (W3). Minnesota keeping close games has been a theme all season. But when they were only catching 1-2 pts against Green Bay, even I was a little scared. Small lean to San Fran here. Minnesota plays Detroit next week, and they could lose, but if they don't they'll be back at .500 and still i nthe hunt.
No Plays:
New England -7 (W5) vs. Tennessee (L2). The Titans got caught looking ahead to New England last week in their defeat to the Texans. Sometimes you see these winning streaks like Green Bay (W9), Dallas (W7), and Arizona (W5), and wonder how you didn't hop on during the ride. I've only taken New England once during this win streak. Well Tenn has 1 more win than New England, beaten some very good teams, but they're still getting 7 on the road. Teams giving 7 at home have done horribly lately though. But I've said for weeks that Indy is going to keep coming. Tenn is up 2 games and holds the tiebreaker. I think Indy can maybe gain a game this week.
I'm going to pass on New England. I don't like that they've blown out 3 teams in a row. Last game was in primetime too. Also, Tenn is missing a bunch of players that I just realized.
Last week 4-2 Plays, 5-1 Leans, 2-1 No Plays. I'm not counting the Baltimore game because the line moved to pickem after Lamar Jackson was declared out and I didn't come back to revise the post.
2021 Season
21-14 Plays. 13-18 Leans
Parenthesis are the current W/L streak ATS.
Plays:
Pittsburgh +3.5 (W1) at Cincinnati (W1). These teams played already and Cincinnati won as a road underdog. Revenge games were like 0-4 ATS this season last time I checked. The media and me think Pittsburgh sucks, but they find a way to stay around .500. Pittsburgh plays Baltimore next week, but it shouldn't be a look ahead, this is a division rival as well. And Cincy is fresh off their thrashing of the Raiders who just beat Dallas in Dallas.
Carolina -2.5 (L1) at Miami (W3). Bad teams do go on 3 game ATS covering streaks, but I think it usually ends around there. That's what we have with Miami, who is getting 2.5 against Carolina who is 2-6 in their last 8 games. Getting points against Cam Newton who probably doesn't even know the playbook yet. I think I like this -2.5 road favorite more than the Chargers, so I may drop that game.
Going through previous years, it appears that Miami does have these long ATS covering streaks. 2016 they covered 5 in a row. 2017 they got 2 and then pushed. 2018 3 in a row. 2019 5 in a row. 2020 5 in a row and 4 in a row. So despite the write-up, I think I'm flipping to Miami on this game. I'll fade the streak if they can get to 5.
Cleveland +3.5 (L2) at Baltimore (W1). I hate Cleveland games because it always feels like Vegas is overvaluing them, and they usually do. Last year Baltimore beat Cleveland at home 38-6 as a 7 pt. Favorite. Then beat them again by 5 in Cleveland. And Cleveland just got blown out by New England, then barely escaped winning at home against Detroit with Boyle as the QB. The Ravens just beat Chicago, who beat Detroit with their starting QB pretty badly, without Lamar Jackson and Hollywood Brown. Baltimore is about the same as last year talent wise, but Lamar was playing like crap often last season. The Browns are arguably worse than last year with Baker having that bad shoulder, Landry injured, and Odell no longer on the team. I guess the Brownies are gonna sucker me into putting my money on them this week.
Tampa Bay -3 (W1) at Indy (W1). I was gonna lean Indy here, because they've been good to me this season. But Indy as a 3 pt home dog? They have one less win than Tampa, and they just steamrolled the Bills by 26 pts last week on the road. Could be Brady inflation, but that line is kinda high. Should be a pickem game at best. But I think it should be more like Indy -1 TBH. So I guess small lean to Tampa here.
Last year despite winning the SB, Tampa went 11-5 in the regular season. They probably do about the same this season. They'll probably lose to Buffalo, and there's gonna be one more WTF game again this season. Probably to the Saints or at Carolina or something.
I'm realizing there's way too many road favorites this week, so maybe this is Vegas's gimme and you take Indy.
I'm switching my lean to Indy here.
Philly (W2) vs NY Giants +3.5 (L1). I may pair the two combos of this game and TB/Indy. It's a similar scenario. Team giving 3 on the road which seems kinda high. The Giants will be without Sheperd and Toney. Philly is the only one that can make it interesting in the division. If they win this week, they can pick up a game on Dallas and only be down 2 games with a rematch with Dallas a long way away in week 18.
I'm only taking Philly for probability sake since I'm taking Indy in the other game.
Leans:
NY Jets +2.5 (L3) at Houston (W1). Zach Wilson's first game back, and Michael Carter out. Line seems a bit low to me. Houston has played well with Tyrod Taylor. What are they 2-2 with him as a starter? 0-6 in other games. The Jets are 1-5 when Zach Wilson starts. And Houston is off that huge win at Tennessee. So why is Houston not even giving a field goal in this game?
I'll leave this as a lean, but I won't play it. I'm not that desperate to bet on the Jets. I've only done it once this season and lost.
Washington PICK (W2) vs. Seattle (L2). Normal instinct would be to take Seattle and think that they won't lose 3 in a row, but this line is dropping somehow. Amazing that Seattle's offense has been in a rut for several weeks with the Wilson, DK Metcalf, and Lockett. Home teams have done pretty well on MNF this season though. Maybe a reversion to the mean is coming, but I'm playing the line movement on this one.
LA Chargers -2.5 (L2) at Denver (L1). Yeah, seems like a square play. It's also the highest consensus game of the week. Well I think the top consensus pick has lost like 6-7 weeks in a row, so it's kinda due. I think the line is too high. Chargers giving pts on the road to a division rival who has one less win than they do? Should be Denver -1 or Pickem at worst. Lucky backdoor cover by Pittsburgh last week. But if you've been following, you know that the Chargers never wins big. When they win it's usually by 4 or less. This falls in that category. Denver is also off a bye, so that makes them being a home dog even more peculiar.
I take caution because it's such a high consensus play though. I also think the total is kinda high at 47 for a Denver game. But then again, Pitt and LA Chargers combined for 78 last game.
This would have been a play, but for some reason my book has this game of the board. So I put it as a lean.
San Fran -3 (W2) vs. Minnesota (W3). Minnesota keeping close games has been a theme all season. But when they were only catching 1-2 pts against Green Bay, even I was a little scared. Small lean to San Fran here. Minnesota plays Detroit next week, and they could lose, but if they don't they'll be back at .500 and still i nthe hunt.
No Plays:
New England -7 (W5) vs. Tennessee (L2). The Titans got caught looking ahead to New England last week in their defeat to the Texans. Sometimes you see these winning streaks like Green Bay (W9), Dallas (W7), and Arizona (W5), and wonder how you didn't hop on during the ride. I've only taken New England once during this win streak. Well Tenn has 1 more win than New England, beaten some very good teams, but they're still getting 7 on the road. Teams giving 7 at home have done horribly lately though. But I've said for weeks that Indy is going to keep coming. Tenn is up 2 games and holds the tiebreaker. I think Indy can maybe gain a game this week.
I'm going to pass on New England. I don't like that they've blown out 3 teams in a row. Last game was in primetime too. Also, Tenn is missing a bunch of players that I just realized.
Last week 4-2 Plays, 5-1 Leans, 2-1 No Plays. I'm not counting the Baltimore game because the line moved to pickem after Lamar Jackson was declared out and I didn't come back to revise the post.
2021 Season
21-14 Plays. 13-18 Leans