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Horrible, horrible backdoor beat on Miami last week. I said I thought the double digit dogs would revert to the mean. Didn't know they would all cover except Miami 
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There's a ton of injuries to star players this week, so it's kinda crapshoot but here goes. Mostly leans for now until I can narrow it down this weekend.
I'm going to start a new labeling system, just for my own reference purposes. The (X) will be the current ATS Loss/Win Streak. I'll also be checking for lookahead spots when noteworthy.
Plays:
Chicago +6.5 (L3) at Pittsburgh (W1). The bears played a pretty good game last week against the San Fran defense, but they were playing a desperate team clinging to playoff hopes. Pittsburgh got their revenge from last year's playoff blowout against the browns in a sloppy game with Baker injured and Cleveland dysfunctional from that OBJ situation. The Steelers are not a good team, but have found themselves above .500. I like Chicago to keep it close. with Big Ben barely able to throw the ball these days. I'd have more faith in Chicago's defense if Khalil Mack wasn't still injured and not playing, but it shouldn't take much to slow Big Ben down.
Pittsburgh plays the Detroit Lions next week. That should be a competitive game. I'll definitely be on Detroit next week if Pittsburgh covers this game. Chicago plays Baltimore.
Big Ben is supposedly nursing a shoulder injury. Chicago ranks in the bottom 5 against the pass I believe. Middle of the pack against the run.
Denver +10.5 (W1) at Dallas (W7). Denver finally broke their 4 game losing streak last game. Dallas is basically playing with house money getting that unexpected win on SNF, but Dak will definitely be back this week. Denver was arguably the biggest seller at the trade deadline, trading away Von Miller. I like betting teams that look like sellers. People think Denver has given up on the season, despite being 4-4 and in the thick of the race for the division with KC and LA Chargers being so disappointing the last couple of weeks. I believe Ceedee Lamb hasn't practiced all week.
Denver is 0-4 when the defense allows more than 14 pts.
These next two games are almost identical. 5-2 home team vs. a 3-4 away team with the spread at -6. I feel based on probability that one team will win, and one team will lose, so I've chosen this combo.
Minnesota +6 (L1) vs. Baltimore (L1-Blown Out). Baltimore is coming off their bye after being blown out at home vs. Cincy. I've taken a new perspective about teams off bye weeks this season. According to recent trends, teams off by weeks are only covering at around 50%, so basically no advantage. It tilts a little bit if you've got a good coach, but we've already seen Sean Payton and Kyle Shanahan fail to cover off their byes.
There were 6 teams coming off a bye last week, and 3 of them covered (Buffalo, Dallas, Pittsburgh), and 3 of them lost (Jacksonville, LA Chargers, Minnesota). I guess you could say the good, well coached teams covered last week.
Minnesota hasn't lost by more than one possession the entire season though. The only loss by more than 4 was a 1 TD loss to the Browns. All their wins have been close as well.
I've said before I expect Minny to hang around .500 the entire season. They're 3-4 and their next 2 are at Baltimore and at LA Chargers (which is not as tough an out as it would have sounded a few weeks ago.)
Just heard a stat that Lamar Jackson is 11-0 vs. the NFC.
New Orleans -6 (W1) vs. Atlanta (L1). New Orleans is off that big win against Tampa last week. Atlanta is dealing with that Ridley mental health issue and lost to Carolina last week without him, so that technically already played out. Taysom Hill should be taking over for Jameis this week, but he's coming back for the first time in weeks from a concussion. Usually players come back the next week when they get a concussion, so what Taysom has been dealing with must be serious. He practiced, but it's still a possibility that Simien starts this week. Taysom's whole game is running the ball, and he may not be willing to do that as much coming off that concussion. Also, Taysom had a lot of success starting, but he had Michael Thomas who still had big games when he was quarterbacking. I think this line is a bit high, so lean New Orleans. This doesn't really fit the usual backup QB system because this is a guy that we've seen plenty of, and has had success.
Favorites in the -6.5 and 5.5 range have not been good ATS lately. The Saints have been extremely inconsistent this season. If you look, they have covered every other game for the entire season. Maybe you put that on Jameis, or maybe they will continue to be inconsistent. I got burned betting on them to end the streak on MNF against Seattle and they couldn't do it. Feeling nightmares of when I took New Orleans -7 against the Giants and they blew that lead.
Atlanta plays Dallas next week.
Sean Payton names Siemien the starter for this game, and said Taysom would play behind him. Will need to revisit this pick again. Not sure if I can do it now.
Fun Fact: Trevor Siemien is 9-3 at home as a starter. I went through his game logs for 2016-2017 and was pretty surprised.
Leans:
San Fran -1.5 (W1) vs. Arizona (L1). I like San Fran at +2.5 at the open, but it looks like Kyler Murray is very questionable this week. It's already Thursday and he still hasn't practiced yet. He was in a walking boot after Thursdays loss to Green Bay. Murray played his worst game of the season vs. San Fran earlier this year. They won 17-10 but covered LATE off a short field when Trey Lance was rushed into duty with Jimmy G hurt. I'll need to monitor Murray's health before I can pull the trigger on this one. Hopkins hasn't practiced all week either, but he's usually a go on Sundays.
Murray hasn't practiced all week and is listed as a game-time decision. Fantasy projections have him at 0, though he was expected to play. It's another Dak situation where the best thing may be for them to rest him. Deandre Hopkins hasn't practiced all week either. AJ Green has COVID and he's out. So it may be Colt Mccoy and Kirk, Rondale Moore, etc. this week.
I believe in the rematches of teams that have played this season already, the team that covered the first meeting is 3-0 so far (Patriots/Jets, Titans/Colts, Bills/Dolphins).
San Fran's new star RB Eli Mitchell is nursing a rib injury. He didn't practice until Thursday, and was wearing a non-contact jersey. Jeff Wilson Jr. was activated off IR, and he will play. Mitchell's injury must be serious.
San Fran plays the Rams next week. If they lose both games, they'll be 3-6 and the season will be pretty much over. It's barely still alive as it is.
LA Chargers (O1) / Philly (O2) OVER 49.5. When you've got the Chargers as a favorite, it is a painful thing to watch sometimes. Their defense is awful. Philly destroyed Detroit last week. I knew too many people were on Detroit as an underdog. Chargers are due for a bounceback, and that Philly defense should a good spot to get back on track again.
Carolina +4 (W1) vs. New England (W2).This one just made my radar because I wasn't aware that Darnold is dealing with a concussion and a shoulder injury. Therefore XFL star P.J. Walker may be getting the start. If I'm Carolina, I probably go with Walker regardless. You're gonna have to find out what you have on the roster for QBs sooner or later. New England on a roll klling the jets, beating the Chargers on the road, and giving Dallas all they could handle and losing in OT.
Darnold cleared concussion protocol but is still dealing with that shoulder injury. I think he doesn't play.
LV Raiders -3 (W2 - BYE) vs. NY Giants (W2). The line is a little high for the Giants who have covered a couple in a row. I typically don't like betting teams to cover 3 or more games straight. I bet on the Raiders the week Gruden got fired. They're still dealing with this Ruggs situation this week. This is usually a situation where I'd take the Raiders though. The Giants will be down some players again with Shepard out and Barkley coming down with COVID.
I flipped my lean from the Giants side to the Raiders side. Both teams have covered 2 in a row, so one of them will be covering a third.
It's tough for me to bet against Kadarius Toney, but he's obviously still hobbled. Still practicing limited. Virtually a non-factor last game. He can get healthy during the bye next week.
Teams off bye weeks cover around 50%, and I like Minnesota to cover vs. Baltimore, so this would be the other side of the 50%.
I usually don't even check for this nor do I usually care, but the Raiders play at home vs. KC next week.
No Plays:
Green Bay +7.5 (W7) at Kansas City (L2). I was all ready to slam the over this week, then Rodgers had to go and get COVID. I haven't seen much of Jordan Love, but this is your typical backup QB system that has done well as of late after a slow start to the season. The winner of MNF is still 7-0 ATS the following week though.
After a 2-6 start to the season, backup QBs have clawed their way back to 6-6 ATS while winning the last 4 (Geno, Keenum, White, Rush).
Very unlikely, but what a story it would be if Jordan Love lit it up, and there was a QB controversy. Rodgers is facing a mandatory 10 day quarantine for not being vaccinated, and he lied about it as well. So he wouldn't even be eligible to practice until the day before the Week 10 game. That's if the NFL doesn't suspend him for lying.
KC Plays the Raiders next week.
I watched Jordan Love preseason highlights. Didn't like what I saw. It's a no play, but I dunno maybe I'd lean Chiefs right now.
Cleveland +2.5 (L1).at Cincy (L1). Now that Cincy has come back to earth off the biggest upset of the season, we can talk about them as what they are. A good, not great team. Vegas is still giving Cleveland respect week after week because of last year. That team is reeling with Baker playing with a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder, and Odell drama. It's a bit too high consensus pick for me though. I'm looking to see if people will take Cleveland because of their rushing game, when the Jets punished Cincy on the ground last week.
This is a no play, but if I had to pick, it would be Cleveland at this point. Cincy being the high consensus pick, but Cleveland also dealing with the Odell drama. Peoples-Jones has been injured, so it really has to be a ball control game where they run the ball to protect Baker's shoulder.
As always, this post will be updated many times prior to Sunday kickoff.
Last week I went 2-1 on plays (Miami
) and 1-3 Leans.
2020 Season:
11-10 Plays
7-10 Leans
.There's a ton of injuries to star players this week, so it's kinda crapshoot but here goes. Mostly leans for now until I can narrow it down this weekend.
I'm going to start a new labeling system, just for my own reference purposes. The (X) will be the current ATS Loss/Win Streak. I'll also be checking for lookahead spots when noteworthy.
Plays:
Chicago +6.5 (L3) at Pittsburgh (W1). The bears played a pretty good game last week against the San Fran defense, but they were playing a desperate team clinging to playoff hopes. Pittsburgh got their revenge from last year's playoff blowout against the browns in a sloppy game with Baker injured and Cleveland dysfunctional from that OBJ situation. The Steelers are not a good team, but have found themselves above .500. I like Chicago to keep it close. with Big Ben barely able to throw the ball these days. I'd have more faith in Chicago's defense if Khalil Mack wasn't still injured and not playing, but it shouldn't take much to slow Big Ben down.
Pittsburgh plays the Detroit Lions next week. That should be a competitive game. I'll definitely be on Detroit next week if Pittsburgh covers this game. Chicago plays Baltimore.
Big Ben is supposedly nursing a shoulder injury. Chicago ranks in the bottom 5 against the pass I believe. Middle of the pack against the run.
Denver +10.5 (W1) at Dallas (W7). Denver finally broke their 4 game losing streak last game. Dallas is basically playing with house money getting that unexpected win on SNF, but Dak will definitely be back this week. Denver was arguably the biggest seller at the trade deadline, trading away Von Miller. I like betting teams that look like sellers. People think Denver has given up on the season, despite being 4-4 and in the thick of the race for the division with KC and LA Chargers being so disappointing the last couple of weeks. I believe Ceedee Lamb hasn't practiced all week.
Denver is 0-4 when the defense allows more than 14 pts.
These next two games are almost identical. 5-2 home team vs. a 3-4 away team with the spread at -6. I feel based on probability that one team will win, and one team will lose, so I've chosen this combo.
Minnesota +6 (L1) vs. Baltimore (L1-Blown Out). Baltimore is coming off their bye after being blown out at home vs. Cincy. I've taken a new perspective about teams off bye weeks this season. According to recent trends, teams off by weeks are only covering at around 50%, so basically no advantage. It tilts a little bit if you've got a good coach, but we've already seen Sean Payton and Kyle Shanahan fail to cover off their byes.
There were 6 teams coming off a bye last week, and 3 of them covered (Buffalo, Dallas, Pittsburgh), and 3 of them lost (Jacksonville, LA Chargers, Minnesota). I guess you could say the good, well coached teams covered last week.
Minnesota hasn't lost by more than one possession the entire season though. The only loss by more than 4 was a 1 TD loss to the Browns. All their wins have been close as well.
I've said before I expect Minny to hang around .500 the entire season. They're 3-4 and their next 2 are at Baltimore and at LA Chargers (which is not as tough an out as it would have sounded a few weeks ago.)
Just heard a stat that Lamar Jackson is 11-0 vs. the NFC.
New Orleans -6 (W1) vs. Atlanta (L1). New Orleans is off that big win against Tampa last week. Atlanta is dealing with that Ridley mental health issue and lost to Carolina last week without him, so that technically already played out. Taysom Hill should be taking over for Jameis this week, but he's coming back for the first time in weeks from a concussion. Usually players come back the next week when they get a concussion, so what Taysom has been dealing with must be serious. He practiced, but it's still a possibility that Simien starts this week. Taysom's whole game is running the ball, and he may not be willing to do that as much coming off that concussion. Also, Taysom had a lot of success starting, but he had Michael Thomas who still had big games when he was quarterbacking. I think this line is a bit high, so lean New Orleans. This doesn't really fit the usual backup QB system because this is a guy that we've seen plenty of, and has had success.
Favorites in the -6.5 and 5.5 range have not been good ATS lately. The Saints have been extremely inconsistent this season. If you look, they have covered every other game for the entire season. Maybe you put that on Jameis, or maybe they will continue to be inconsistent. I got burned betting on them to end the streak on MNF against Seattle and they couldn't do it. Feeling nightmares of when I took New Orleans -7 against the Giants and they blew that lead.
Atlanta plays Dallas next week.
Sean Payton names Siemien the starter for this game, and said Taysom would play behind him. Will need to revisit this pick again. Not sure if I can do it now.
Fun Fact: Trevor Siemien is 9-3 at home as a starter. I went through his game logs for 2016-2017 and was pretty surprised.
Leans:
San Fran -1.5 (W1) vs. Arizona (L1). I like San Fran at +2.5 at the open, but it looks like Kyler Murray is very questionable this week. It's already Thursday and he still hasn't practiced yet. He was in a walking boot after Thursdays loss to Green Bay. Murray played his worst game of the season vs. San Fran earlier this year. They won 17-10 but covered LATE off a short field when Trey Lance was rushed into duty with Jimmy G hurt. I'll need to monitor Murray's health before I can pull the trigger on this one. Hopkins hasn't practiced all week either, but he's usually a go on Sundays.
Murray hasn't practiced all week and is listed as a game-time decision. Fantasy projections have him at 0, though he was expected to play. It's another Dak situation where the best thing may be for them to rest him. Deandre Hopkins hasn't practiced all week either. AJ Green has COVID and he's out. So it may be Colt Mccoy and Kirk, Rondale Moore, etc. this week.
I believe in the rematches of teams that have played this season already, the team that covered the first meeting is 3-0 so far (Patriots/Jets, Titans/Colts, Bills/Dolphins).
San Fran's new star RB Eli Mitchell is nursing a rib injury. He didn't practice until Thursday, and was wearing a non-contact jersey. Jeff Wilson Jr. was activated off IR, and he will play. Mitchell's injury must be serious.
San Fran plays the Rams next week. If they lose both games, they'll be 3-6 and the season will be pretty much over. It's barely still alive as it is.
LA Chargers (O1) / Philly (O2) OVER 49.5. When you've got the Chargers as a favorite, it is a painful thing to watch sometimes. Their defense is awful. Philly destroyed Detroit last week. I knew too many people were on Detroit as an underdog. Chargers are due for a bounceback, and that Philly defense should a good spot to get back on track again.
Carolina +4 (W1) vs. New England (W2).This one just made my radar because I wasn't aware that Darnold is dealing with a concussion and a shoulder injury. Therefore XFL star P.J. Walker may be getting the start. If I'm Carolina, I probably go with Walker regardless. You're gonna have to find out what you have on the roster for QBs sooner or later. New England on a roll klling the jets, beating the Chargers on the road, and giving Dallas all they could handle and losing in OT.
Darnold cleared concussion protocol but is still dealing with that shoulder injury. I think he doesn't play.
LV Raiders -3 (W2 - BYE) vs. NY Giants (W2). The line is a little high for the Giants who have covered a couple in a row. I typically don't like betting teams to cover 3 or more games straight. I bet on the Raiders the week Gruden got fired. They're still dealing with this Ruggs situation this week. This is usually a situation where I'd take the Raiders though. The Giants will be down some players again with Shepard out and Barkley coming down with COVID.
I flipped my lean from the Giants side to the Raiders side. Both teams have covered 2 in a row, so one of them will be covering a third.
It's tough for me to bet against Kadarius Toney, but he's obviously still hobbled. Still practicing limited. Virtually a non-factor last game. He can get healthy during the bye next week.
Teams off bye weeks cover around 50%, and I like Minnesota to cover vs. Baltimore, so this would be the other side of the 50%.
I usually don't even check for this nor do I usually care, but the Raiders play at home vs. KC next week.
No Plays:
Green Bay +7.5 (W7) at Kansas City (L2). I was all ready to slam the over this week, then Rodgers had to go and get COVID. I haven't seen much of Jordan Love, but this is your typical backup QB system that has done well as of late after a slow start to the season. The winner of MNF is still 7-0 ATS the following week though.
After a 2-6 start to the season, backup QBs have clawed their way back to 6-6 ATS while winning the last 4 (Geno, Keenum, White, Rush).
Very unlikely, but what a story it would be if Jordan Love lit it up, and there was a QB controversy. Rodgers is facing a mandatory 10 day quarantine for not being vaccinated, and he lied about it as well. So he wouldn't even be eligible to practice until the day before the Week 10 game. That's if the NFL doesn't suspend him for lying.
KC Plays the Raiders next week.
I watched Jordan Love preseason highlights. Didn't like what I saw. It's a no play, but I dunno maybe I'd lean Chiefs right now.
Cleveland +2.5 (L1).at Cincy (L1). Now that Cincy has come back to earth off the biggest upset of the season, we can talk about them as what they are. A good, not great team. Vegas is still giving Cleveland respect week after week because of last year. That team is reeling with Baker playing with a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder, and Odell drama. It's a bit too high consensus pick for me though. I'm looking to see if people will take Cleveland because of their rushing game, when the Jets punished Cincy on the ground last week.
This is a no play, but if I had to pick, it would be Cleveland at this point. Cincy being the high consensus pick, but Cleveland also dealing with the Odell drama. Peoples-Jones has been injured, so it really has to be a ball control game where they run the ball to protect Baker's shoulder.
As always, this post will be updated many times prior to Sunday kickoff.
Last week I went 2-1 on plays (Miami
) and 1-3 Leans.2020 Season:
11-10 Plays
7-10 Leans
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