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Okay week last week. That Monday night game hurt. Seattle gets a breakaway TD early and scores 3 the rest of the way (off a fumble), and the Saints still can't cover the line. I remember seeing "No TDs scored +800" on the live line and thinking that was pretty low, the lowest I've ever seen. But what can you do.
Lots of pickem games this week and tough to choose but here are some thoughts.
Plays:
New Orleans +4.5 vs. Tampa Bay. Funny that I put it on top right after complaining about how they didn't cover Monday. I actually googled the Payton off a bye and was surprised to see that he hadn't done that great. A lot of close games, but it was already in. Anyways, these division rivals played last year, and New Orleans beat them both times in the regular season. The second meeting was memorable cuz it was a thumping 38-3. But Tampa got their revenge in the playoffs as a short away dog. That was with Brees though, so completely different story. New Orleans has one of the better defenses in the league, and I like them in this spot with Tampa coming in hot and off destroying Chicago 38-3 last week, with everyone seeing how anemic New Orleans offense was on Monday. I can see why Payton went with the extremely conservative game plan considering Geno couldn't move the ball the ball for most of the game. That won't be the case here, and Jameis will have to air it out against that tough run defense. They were also missing Taysom Hill who is probably the most valuable gadget guy in the league. I just like the spot, but honestly it is a pretty high line giving 4.5-5 on the road vs. a team that's actually pretty good.
Almost forgot about the revenge spot for Jameis against his old team. So far the party that was cast away is 2-0 ATS this season I think. Brady didn't cover against New England. The Rams didn't cover against Jared Goff who they discarded and Matt Stafford didn't cover against his old team. Does this even count because Jameis has been in New Orleans for 2 seasons, and he got his revenge as a backup twice last season? Who knows.
Taysom Hill likely out for New Orleans. Michael Thomas still not close to returning. Gronkowski probably back for Tampa this week. They were missing a ton of key players last week though, so I'll have to check on that. They obviously didn't need them last week. Antonio Brown likely out again this week.
Also note that this is could be a must win game for New Orleans. If they lose, they fall 3 games behind Tampa. Tampa Bay is 0-3 ATS on the road this season. Rams, Philly, and New England all covered against them.
The Next 2 "Plays" were very difficult to narrow down. I could have gone with a few different combinations but ended up with these:
Miami +14.5 at Buffalo. When you're dealing with double digit underdogs, it's been a losing proposition for years, and especially this year. Double digit favorites are 9-3 ATS this season, hitting at 75%. Last 2 meetings Buffalo has won by 35 points and 30 points respectively. The line has been adjusted upwards compared to the first meeting this season as well. When you're dealing with this many pts it's kind of a crapshoot. Buffalo 6-0 ATS last 6 vs Miami.
The detailed angle here is that I expect a bit of a reversion to the historical average of past years this week. Also, Miami has been pretty good as a double digit dog in recent years. Miami didn't cover as a +11 dog vs. Tampa earlier this season, but that was with a backup QB. They were too good to be a double digit dog last year, but the year before they were 5-3 ATS as a DD dog.
The line is a bit inflated because they haven't covered 4 in a row. Looks like for now a Watson trade isn't gonna happen. The coach just stated Tua is the starter for the rest of the season. And Miami has been competitive in every game this season except Tampa where they pulled away late. Tampa is the most efficient offense I can remember. Buffalo is good, but not quite as good as Tampa.
Tenn +3 at Indy. Normally I'd be all over Indy in this spot. Both teams have played well coming into this game. Tenn has covered 3 in a row, including SU wins vs. Buffalo and Kansas City. Indy has covered 4 in a row as well, and 5 out of 6. It just seems like way too popular a pick. I do enjoy watching Wentz prove everyone wrong this season, but I dunno if I can back them again.
The Must-Win angle is used quite often in sports, but it doesn't usually pan out from what i remember. If Tennessee wins this game, they go up 3 games on Indy and they own the tiebreaker by winning both meetings. That essentially eliminates Indy from the playoffs sitting there at 3-5, unless they go about 7-2 the rest of the way.
Another angle is a probability angle. The last 3 weeks there has been an early game where the line opened at +1 and went to -2.5/3 at some point during the week. The team that the line moved towards has won 2 weeks in a row, and it's just a probability kinda thing to me. The ML on this game barely pays anything compared to other games, so I don't think the spread will matter.
Carson Wentz was picked up off the waiver wire in two of my fantasy leagues for the first time this season this week. That's usually a bad sign.
First Out Leans:
LA Chargers -4 vs. New England. I liked the Chargers off their bye week after getting destroyed by Baltimore previously, and New England off their throttling of the NY Jets. But I liked it at -6 when the line opened. It's already moved down to 4.5, so I'm pausing for a second. The Ravens killed the Chargers on the ground with AARP running backs last game. New England is pretty good vs. the pass, and if you were taking the chargers you would be taking them off Herbert, Mike WIlliams, and Keenan Allen obviously. Cleveland was ranked pretty high in pass defense a few weeks ago though, and Herbert put 47 points on them. I mainly just like the Chargers in a bounce back spot. I'm hearing that Mac Jones has performed the best of the rookie QBs so far, but he hasn't impressed me all that much. All of a sudden he's good because he put up some decent numbers against Dallas, Houston, and the NY Jets defense?
New England beat the Chargers 45-0 last season with Cam as the quarterback.
This game narrowly missed being in my top 3. I really like the bounceback angle from last year. But if you look at the Chargers recent games, they play very close games. Their winning margins this season have been 4, 6, 14, and 5. Last season 6, 3, 3, 3. and 17 when KC was resting starters.
The line seems kinda fair. Chargers have 1 more win, and are viewed as the better team. They were a media darling 2 weeks ago. And I don't really like that.
So lean to the Chargers. May put a parlay in with them later.
Washington +3.5 at Denver. Ryan Fitzpatrick could be coming off IR after Washington's bye week next week. Heinicke could be playing for his job this week. Ron Rivera is a puzzling guy though. Heinicke is obviously the better long term choice, but Ron is a short term guy who always plays who he thinks is likelier to get them the win this week, and Fitzpatrick is probably the better choice for the rest of the season. So possibly last start for Heinicke. Denver is reeling off 4 straight losses and ATS. I will no longer mention Bridewater's 73% ATS as a starter, because it's regressed to the mean is a big way.
For Washington Gibson's still banged up but expected to play. Mclaurin as well. Denver could be getting back Jerry Jeudy this week, so I dunno if that's gonna move the needle. I have Noah Fant on my fantasy team and i'm benching him this week, because I think Denver will be using him more as a blocker to assist with the pass rush. Washington is 1-6 ATS this season. I didn't realize it was that bad.
There is an angle on this game that I briefly have mentioned before, but I think I'll keep that to myself for now. Washington is one of those teams that are prone to ugly ATS losing streaks, so It's kinda scary trying to bet the streak to end. I'd like them to cover a game first, have a bye week, and maybe they get hot again when Fitzpatrick comes back.
Carolina +3.5 at Atlanta. This line actually opened at 2.5, meaning bookmakers actually priced in Carolina as the better team adjusted for home field. But it's moved to and past the key 3 number, so I'm thinking twice about this pick. Similar records, but Carolina has lost 4 in a row. Atlanta has won some games this season, but their defense is still pretty poor. Their 3 wins are against the Giants, Jets, and Miami, who only have 4 wins between the three of them. Can Sam Darnold even attack Atlanta's crap defense?
There's been leaks on the Deshaun Watson trade front about Carolina. It's possible he ends up there by Tuesday. Carolina may even need Watson to keep their coach who wants to head back to college.
Carolina has been so bad in the second half, maybe a better play is to take them in the first half.
Other Leans:
Jacksonville +3.5 at Seattle. Geno was so excited to get a shot, but I think now he realizes that he's at best a career backup. Jacksonville off a win in England and their bye week. I normally do not like taking Jacksonville as a short dog or favorite, but I believe Geno has only been good as a larger underdog during his career. I kinda like the over in this game too after that anemic offensive showing from Seattle on Monday, but Seattle's defense has randomly stepped up 3 games in a row, and I dunno if I can trust Geno to score anything.
No Plays:
Kansas City -9.5 vs. NY Giants. The rare good spot for Kansas City. Off a WTF happened 27-3 loss to the Titans last week, and the Giants off a 25-3 win over Carolina. The home team is 7-0 SU on Monday night football this season (5-2 ATS). Does the trend continue? Before I decide on this play I'll have to know the health of several players on the Giants. Primarily Kadarious Toney who is the most dangerous player I've seen in a long time. Toney has mainly been doing drills on the side this week, but we'll see on Friday. Monitoring Golloday's status as well. Sterling Shepard should be back. Saquon Barkley and Toney are kinda on the same boat.
Kadarius Toney practiced Friday. Saquaon Barkley did not. Toney's whole game is being able to cut and I'm not sure he can do what he usually does on a bum ankle. But if he plays I'd be very reluctant to back the Chiefs.
Kadarius Toney is on the good side of questionable at this point, and if he plays I wouldn't feel comfortable take the Chiefs and that defense. If you've never seen this guy play, he's an X factor. If he can get into space, he can take it to the house on any play, and I will be very reluctant to bet against the Giants any game he plays in.
Pittsburgh +4.5 at Cleveland. This would normally be a spot where I'd take Pittsburgh based on the revenge factor from the throttling they took in the playoff game last year. I think it was 28-0 after the first quarter or something. I may be drawing this too much off the last game played, but I said Big Ben looked completely done vs. Seattle a couple of weeks back. Totally uninterested and unable to complete a pass other than a checkdown. I said I wouldn't be betting Pitt anymore, and I won't in this spot. Plus maybe vegas is baiting you into taking the points with the hook and hoping the Big Ben of 3-4 years ago shows up again. The one that owned the Browns for so many years.
Baker Mayfield was declared the starter and he's playing with a torn labrum in his non throwing shoulder. He's in a contract year, so he's extra motivated right now. A good season could net him a good $40M extra or so on his next contract.
Detroit +3.5 vs. Philly. Detroit really pulled out all the stops last week to try to win against the Rams, but they couldn't do it. Philly looked bad last week, but almost made it interesting again. Second half/garbage time team there. I think it's funny that there's talk about benching Jalen Hurts, yet he's the second/third highest scoring QB in fantasy football right now. Just behind Tom Brady. It's one of those matchups you salivate over in fantasy, but Detroit's defense steps up somehow just like they did against the Ravens and Vikings.
Miles Sanders is out for Philly, but I don't think that matters. They barely use their RBs anyways.
Strike this. Detroit is too popular of a pick this week, and Philly giving 3.5 on the road is too much IMO. Philly should be no more than -1 in this matchup. I'm flipping the lean to Philly -3.5 on this one. - No Play Now.
San Fran -4 at Chicago. This game is too similar to the Phily game. It's probably a crapshoot and one of them will win and one will lose. Better to not play either one.
Actually, my initial lean was Chicago here because I thought it would be funny and poetic that Chicago wins and covers because Nagy is out with COVID I think. So if I had to pick a combo it would be the Philly/Chicago combo of these 2 picks.
Minnesota at Dallas. Initial lean was Minnesota here. They're both off their byes, but Dak Prescott is highly questionable for this game, and the line looks like it's pricing him out at the moment. Always lean over in the Dallas game, but can't know that until Saturday afternoon probably when the last injury report comes out. More on Dallas in the next separate post.
Last week 3-2 plays. Not sure how to count Atlanta because it lost with the spread I wrote on Thursday, but the line moved to 2 on Saturday and 1.5 on Sunday, which would have been a win. I just forgot to update the post. I'll count it as a no play. 3-2 on Leans.
As always, this post will be modified up until kickoff. I will be moving some of the leans to the plays column later on.
2021 Season
9-9 Plays
6-7 Leans
Lots of pickem games this week and tough to choose but here are some thoughts.
Plays:
New Orleans +4.5 vs. Tampa Bay. Funny that I put it on top right after complaining about how they didn't cover Monday. I actually googled the Payton off a bye and was surprised to see that he hadn't done that great. A lot of close games, but it was already in. Anyways, these division rivals played last year, and New Orleans beat them both times in the regular season. The second meeting was memorable cuz it was a thumping 38-3. But Tampa got their revenge in the playoffs as a short away dog. That was with Brees though, so completely different story. New Orleans has one of the better defenses in the league, and I like them in this spot with Tampa coming in hot and off destroying Chicago 38-3 last week, with everyone seeing how anemic New Orleans offense was on Monday. I can see why Payton went with the extremely conservative game plan considering Geno couldn't move the ball the ball for most of the game. That won't be the case here, and Jameis will have to air it out against that tough run defense. They were also missing Taysom Hill who is probably the most valuable gadget guy in the league. I just like the spot, but honestly it is a pretty high line giving 4.5-5 on the road vs. a team that's actually pretty good.
Almost forgot about the revenge spot for Jameis against his old team. So far the party that was cast away is 2-0 ATS this season I think. Brady didn't cover against New England. The Rams didn't cover against Jared Goff who they discarded and Matt Stafford didn't cover against his old team. Does this even count because Jameis has been in New Orleans for 2 seasons, and he got his revenge as a backup twice last season? Who knows.
Taysom Hill likely out for New Orleans. Michael Thomas still not close to returning. Gronkowski probably back for Tampa this week. They were missing a ton of key players last week though, so I'll have to check on that. They obviously didn't need them last week. Antonio Brown likely out again this week.
Also note that this is could be a must win game for New Orleans. If they lose, they fall 3 games behind Tampa. Tampa Bay is 0-3 ATS on the road this season. Rams, Philly, and New England all covered against them.
The Next 2 "Plays" were very difficult to narrow down. I could have gone with a few different combinations but ended up with these:
Miami +14.5 at Buffalo. When you're dealing with double digit underdogs, it's been a losing proposition for years, and especially this year. Double digit favorites are 9-3 ATS this season, hitting at 75%. Last 2 meetings Buffalo has won by 35 points and 30 points respectively. The line has been adjusted upwards compared to the first meeting this season as well. When you're dealing with this many pts it's kind of a crapshoot. Buffalo 6-0 ATS last 6 vs Miami.
The detailed angle here is that I expect a bit of a reversion to the historical average of past years this week. Also, Miami has been pretty good as a double digit dog in recent years. Miami didn't cover as a +11 dog vs. Tampa earlier this season, but that was with a backup QB. They were too good to be a double digit dog last year, but the year before they were 5-3 ATS as a DD dog.
The line is a bit inflated because they haven't covered 4 in a row. Looks like for now a Watson trade isn't gonna happen. The coach just stated Tua is the starter for the rest of the season. And Miami has been competitive in every game this season except Tampa where they pulled away late. Tampa is the most efficient offense I can remember. Buffalo is good, but not quite as good as Tampa.
Tenn +3 at Indy. Normally I'd be all over Indy in this spot. Both teams have played well coming into this game. Tenn has covered 3 in a row, including SU wins vs. Buffalo and Kansas City. Indy has covered 4 in a row as well, and 5 out of 6. It just seems like way too popular a pick. I do enjoy watching Wentz prove everyone wrong this season, but I dunno if I can back them again.
The Must-Win angle is used quite often in sports, but it doesn't usually pan out from what i remember. If Tennessee wins this game, they go up 3 games on Indy and they own the tiebreaker by winning both meetings. That essentially eliminates Indy from the playoffs sitting there at 3-5, unless they go about 7-2 the rest of the way.
Another angle is a probability angle. The last 3 weeks there has been an early game where the line opened at +1 and went to -2.5/3 at some point during the week. The team that the line moved towards has won 2 weeks in a row, and it's just a probability kinda thing to me. The ML on this game barely pays anything compared to other games, so I don't think the spread will matter.
Carson Wentz was picked up off the waiver wire in two of my fantasy leagues for the first time this season this week. That's usually a bad sign.
First Out Leans:
LA Chargers -4 vs. New England. I liked the Chargers off their bye week after getting destroyed by Baltimore previously, and New England off their throttling of the NY Jets. But I liked it at -6 when the line opened. It's already moved down to 4.5, so I'm pausing for a second. The Ravens killed the Chargers on the ground with AARP running backs last game. New England is pretty good vs. the pass, and if you were taking the chargers you would be taking them off Herbert, Mike WIlliams, and Keenan Allen obviously. Cleveland was ranked pretty high in pass defense a few weeks ago though, and Herbert put 47 points on them. I mainly just like the Chargers in a bounce back spot. I'm hearing that Mac Jones has performed the best of the rookie QBs so far, but he hasn't impressed me all that much. All of a sudden he's good because he put up some decent numbers against Dallas, Houston, and the NY Jets defense?
New England beat the Chargers 45-0 last season with Cam as the quarterback.
This game narrowly missed being in my top 3. I really like the bounceback angle from last year. But if you look at the Chargers recent games, they play very close games. Their winning margins this season have been 4, 6, 14, and 5. Last season 6, 3, 3, 3. and 17 when KC was resting starters.
The line seems kinda fair. Chargers have 1 more win, and are viewed as the better team. They were a media darling 2 weeks ago. And I don't really like that.
So lean to the Chargers. May put a parlay in with them later.
Washington +3.5 at Denver. Ryan Fitzpatrick could be coming off IR after Washington's bye week next week. Heinicke could be playing for his job this week. Ron Rivera is a puzzling guy though. Heinicke is obviously the better long term choice, but Ron is a short term guy who always plays who he thinks is likelier to get them the win this week, and Fitzpatrick is probably the better choice for the rest of the season. So possibly last start for Heinicke. Denver is reeling off 4 straight losses and ATS. I will no longer mention Bridewater's 73% ATS as a starter, because it's regressed to the mean is a big way.
For Washington Gibson's still banged up but expected to play. Mclaurin as well. Denver could be getting back Jerry Jeudy this week, so I dunno if that's gonna move the needle. I have Noah Fant on my fantasy team and i'm benching him this week, because I think Denver will be using him more as a blocker to assist with the pass rush. Washington is 1-6 ATS this season. I didn't realize it was that bad.
There is an angle on this game that I briefly have mentioned before, but I think I'll keep that to myself for now. Washington is one of those teams that are prone to ugly ATS losing streaks, so It's kinda scary trying to bet the streak to end. I'd like them to cover a game first, have a bye week, and maybe they get hot again when Fitzpatrick comes back.
Carolina +3.5 at Atlanta. This line actually opened at 2.5, meaning bookmakers actually priced in Carolina as the better team adjusted for home field. But it's moved to and past the key 3 number, so I'm thinking twice about this pick. Similar records, but Carolina has lost 4 in a row. Atlanta has won some games this season, but their defense is still pretty poor. Their 3 wins are against the Giants, Jets, and Miami, who only have 4 wins between the three of them. Can Sam Darnold even attack Atlanta's crap defense?
There's been leaks on the Deshaun Watson trade front about Carolina. It's possible he ends up there by Tuesday. Carolina may even need Watson to keep their coach who wants to head back to college.
Carolina has been so bad in the second half, maybe a better play is to take them in the first half.
Other Leans:
Jacksonville +3.5 at Seattle. Geno was so excited to get a shot, but I think now he realizes that he's at best a career backup. Jacksonville off a win in England and their bye week. I normally do not like taking Jacksonville as a short dog or favorite, but I believe Geno has only been good as a larger underdog during his career. I kinda like the over in this game too after that anemic offensive showing from Seattle on Monday, but Seattle's defense has randomly stepped up 3 games in a row, and I dunno if I can trust Geno to score anything.
No Plays:
Kansas City -9.5 vs. NY Giants. The rare good spot for Kansas City. Off a WTF happened 27-3 loss to the Titans last week, and the Giants off a 25-3 win over Carolina. The home team is 7-0 SU on Monday night football this season (5-2 ATS). Does the trend continue? Before I decide on this play I'll have to know the health of several players on the Giants. Primarily Kadarious Toney who is the most dangerous player I've seen in a long time. Toney has mainly been doing drills on the side this week, but we'll see on Friday. Monitoring Golloday's status as well. Sterling Shepard should be back. Saquon Barkley and Toney are kinda on the same boat.
Kadarius Toney practiced Friday. Saquaon Barkley did not. Toney's whole game is being able to cut and I'm not sure he can do what he usually does on a bum ankle. But if he plays I'd be very reluctant to back the Chiefs.
Kadarius Toney is on the good side of questionable at this point, and if he plays I wouldn't feel comfortable take the Chiefs and that defense. If you've never seen this guy play, he's an X factor. If he can get into space, he can take it to the house on any play, and I will be very reluctant to bet against the Giants any game he plays in.
Pittsburgh +4.5 at Cleveland. This would normally be a spot where I'd take Pittsburgh based on the revenge factor from the throttling they took in the playoff game last year. I think it was 28-0 after the first quarter or something. I may be drawing this too much off the last game played, but I said Big Ben looked completely done vs. Seattle a couple of weeks back. Totally uninterested and unable to complete a pass other than a checkdown. I said I wouldn't be betting Pitt anymore, and I won't in this spot. Plus maybe vegas is baiting you into taking the points with the hook and hoping the Big Ben of 3-4 years ago shows up again. The one that owned the Browns for so many years.
Baker Mayfield was declared the starter and he's playing with a torn labrum in his non throwing shoulder. He's in a contract year, so he's extra motivated right now. A good season could net him a good $40M extra or so on his next contract.
Detroit +3.5 vs. Philly. Detroit really pulled out all the stops last week to try to win against the Rams, but they couldn't do it. Philly looked bad last week, but almost made it interesting again. Second half/garbage time team there. I think it's funny that there's talk about benching Jalen Hurts, yet he's the second/third highest scoring QB in fantasy football right now. Just behind Tom Brady. It's one of those matchups you salivate over in fantasy, but Detroit's defense steps up somehow just like they did against the Ravens and Vikings.
Miles Sanders is out for Philly, but I don't think that matters. They barely use their RBs anyways.
Strike this. Detroit is too popular of a pick this week, and Philly giving 3.5 on the road is too much IMO. Philly should be no more than -1 in this matchup. I'm flipping the lean to Philly -3.5 on this one. - No Play Now.
San Fran -4 at Chicago. This game is too similar to the Phily game. It's probably a crapshoot and one of them will win and one will lose. Better to not play either one.
Actually, my initial lean was Chicago here because I thought it would be funny and poetic that Chicago wins and covers because Nagy is out with COVID I think. So if I had to pick a combo it would be the Philly/Chicago combo of these 2 picks.
Minnesota at Dallas. Initial lean was Minnesota here. They're both off their byes, but Dak Prescott is highly questionable for this game, and the line looks like it's pricing him out at the moment. Always lean over in the Dallas game, but can't know that until Saturday afternoon probably when the last injury report comes out. More on Dallas in the next separate post.
Last week 3-2 plays. Not sure how to count Atlanta because it lost with the spread I wrote on Thursday, but the line moved to 2 on Saturday and 1.5 on Sunday, which would have been a win. I just forgot to update the post. I'll count it as a no play. 3-2 on Leans.
As always, this post will be modified up until kickoff. I will be moving some of the leans to the plays column later on.
2021 Season
9-9 Plays
6-7 Leans
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