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Okay week last week going 3-1 on plays. Very angry at myself for playing the hot Chargers instead of following the new coach system with the Raiders who won easily.
Last week apparently Vegas had its worst week in like 25 or 35 years with top consensus picks Kansas City, LA Rams, and Dallas with the miracle OT all covering. Green Bay as well. Straights and Teasers all paid off on those.
I missed an angle on the Kansas City / Washington game because that Sean Taylor jersey retirement was so abrupt to deflect attention away from that Gruden e-mail. The team never wins when they’re celebrating like that.
I believe it was a clean sweep of favorites at 1 PM, then dogs went 3-1 at 4 PM, then Sunday Night and Monday Night.
I’m not saying vegas will necessarily get their equal but opposite revenge this week, but I’m definitely looking to lean and play dogs this week.
Plays:
NY Jets +7 at New England. I really like this play as it appears that New England steps up for good teams, but plays down to their completion the next game. The Jets are coming off a bye and had 2 weeks to review film of the first meeting where New England absolutely crushed the Jets 25-6 as a 5.5 pt road favorite back in week 2. Only a 7 point home favorite now huh? Okay.
Fundamentals wise, Zach Wilson has more experience under his belt, Jamison Crowder will be playing in this one, and Damien Harris is banged up on the Patriots side.
NY Giants +3 vs. Carolina. This line is actually a bit high considering Carolina has lost 3 in a row following that 3-0 start. But I like this spot for the Giants who are reeling from injuries to Saquon and Toney, and Daniel Jones coming off that concussion and two straight blowout losses by 24 and 27 points. The Giants are better than their 1-5 record looks on paper. Carolina just went to OT last week and had that heartbreaker after tying the game. I probably should look into how teams that went to OT have done this season. I’d like to see those stats.
Sterling Shepard was a late scratch today. Wow the Giants are gonna be thin on weapons.
New Orleans -4.5 at Seattle. Valiant effort by the veteran Geno Smith last week. He made some good throws, but I think the cover had more to do with the ineptitude of Big Ben than Geno. Big Ben should have had a field day on that defense, but instead it was checkdowns all game. Big Ben is obviously done and retiring after this season. He’s got nothing left and still won the game. I like Sean Payton off a bye, and I’ll fade the backup in his second game. Alvin Kamara should have no problems running on Seattle behind a better offensive line than Pittsburgh. And Jameis should be able to hit the big play against that poor pass defense.
Injuries wise, Alex Collins will probably be a gametime decision, and he’s already the backup. Carson is on IR. Rashaad Penny will be back.
I'm becoming a bit iffy on this one, as it's actually quite a high line. Need to revisit this one.
Atlanta -2.5 at Miami. The line movement is similar to Minnesota at Carolina last week where Minnesota opened as a 1 pt road dog and closed as a 2.5 pt favorite. Not the same situation though, and Atlanta has the better record and is coming off their bye. The Deshaun Watson trade does factor into this game. Will Tua even be the quarterback this week or is he getting shipped off before the game? Apparently Houston doesn’t even want Tua and he would go to a third team for a pick. Does that light a fire under the second year QB? Initial lean was Atlanta here, but I may flip depending on if/when a trade goes down.
I'll pull the trigger on Atlanta. No trade went down, and I think it was just hype. Whoever gets Watson may not even be able to play him this season. And they'll need a third team to give them a pick for Tua, and I heard no one really wants him.
Cincinnati +6.5 at Baltimore. Blowout victories for both teams last week, similar to Chargers/Baltimore game, but there’s nobody saying Cincinnati is a top team, or the better team in this scenario. But they’ve quietly gone 4-2 this season, and are a made kick against Green Bay away from being 5-1. I think the days of fading Cincy on the road are over. This is obviously a new regime with Burrow at QB. This reminds me of the Pittsburgh game last year when Baltimore was giving 7 at home and I took Baltimore because I thought the line was too high for similar teams in the division. Baltimore has their bye next week. Not sure if I can see them going 6-1 into that. Cincinnati has a franchise QB, franchise RB, young and productive WRs and a surprisingly good defense to stay competitive in this game.
Washington +8.5 at Green Bay. It may be too many dogs at this point, but I do like this game. Washington off two straight losses, and completely falling apart second half against KC. Looks kinda like a possible teaser buster here with GB giving 8.5 at home. I believe this line opened around 10.5 and was driven down pretty quickly. I read Aaron Rodgers’ completion percentage against pressure is way down this season. Time for Washington’s pass rushers to show up.
I said last week that Washington usually gets blown out by SB contenders, but they actually have played Green Bay well in the past. Maybe it’s because Rodgers hasn’t had any weapons outside of Davante Adams for a long time.
On the injuries side, Mclaurin is banged up again, but played on Sunday. Antonio Gibson is banged up as well, but still played last Sunday as well. Green Bay is developing a nice two headed attack with Aaron Jones and emerging AJ Dillon, but they’ve had that in the past with Jones and Jamaal Williams.
Leans:
Detroit +15.5 at LA Rams. 0-6 team vs a 5-1 team on the road. Line seems a bit high because Detroit isn’t that bad, but they were blown out last week and LA blew out the Giants. Does Goff’s inside knowledge of the Rams system help him exploit their defense this week? Or does McVay who was the brains behind Goff’s rise to the super bowl exploit his known weaknesses? The Rams have are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 following victories of 14 pts of more. Feels like a possible letdown spot here. A lot of emotions for Stafford.
Houston +17.5 at Arizona. I’m monitoring Tyrod Taylor’s status on this one, but it doesn’t look good for now. Not sure if I could bet Davis Mills again after that Buffalo debacle even if the line was 20+ in this situation. Deshaun Watson may get traded this week, but that’s been going on all season, and I don’t think it factors in here at all.
It's gonna take major cajones to take Houston is this spot. I don't think I will, but if you're ever gonna bet Davis Mills, this is not a bad spot to do it. Arizona has Green Bay next Thursday night, and this is the definition of a lookahead spot.
Tampa Bay -11.5 vs Chicago. I'm flipping my pick on this game. Last season TB lost at Chicago as a 3.5 point road dog, and the line is up above that. I do like that Tampa Bay has some key injuries bringing the game into question. Double Digits favorites have done well this season, and there's 4 of them this week. I like the other double digit dogs to cover more.
Correction, there's 3 double digit favorites this week. Green Bay opened at -10.5 and it now around -8 I believe.
Philly +3 at LV Raiders. Pickem game with a 4-2 team at home vs. a 2-4 team? Raiders looked good last week in their situational spot with the new coach. Philly with the long rest after the flukey 2 pt conversion backdoor cover against Tampa Bay. Sometimes a line reeks a little too much for my taste though. This one definitely gives me pause. Philly definitely has had their moments this season, and their offense can be explosive at times. I’ll need to look into this game some more.
Despite the write-up, I think I'm gonna flip this game to Raiders -2.5. Something feels wrong about it.
Kansas City -4 at Tennessee. Not my pick, but it's a system play and I'll give it a shot. Tennessee won a big game Monday night. But the winner of Monday Night is 5-0 ATS in their next game this season......
No Plays:
Chicago +12.5 at Tampa Bay. Surprisingly, Tom Brady committed a Cardinal sin and joked about how Aaron Rodgers owned the Bears last week. That’s what happens when Belichick isn’t around to take the fun away. Despite the loss and non-cover vs. Green Bay last week, Chicago has quietly been winning games with Justin Fields at QB. The defense has really shown up in their victories.
Chicago beat Tampa Bay last year as a 3.5 pt home dog, and it looks like the line has been adjusted above that currently. So this is a small lean but I’m probably going to take this one off as a no play.
Tampa Bay missing Gronkowski, Antonio Brown, Lavonte David, and Richard Sherman.
As always, plays are subject to change up until kickoff, and I will need to move some of these leans into the play column.
2020 Season
8-9 Plays
5-7 Leans
Last week apparently Vegas had its worst week in like 25 or 35 years with top consensus picks Kansas City, LA Rams, and Dallas with the miracle OT all covering. Green Bay as well. Straights and Teasers all paid off on those.
I missed an angle on the Kansas City / Washington game because that Sean Taylor jersey retirement was so abrupt to deflect attention away from that Gruden e-mail. The team never wins when they’re celebrating like that.
I believe it was a clean sweep of favorites at 1 PM, then dogs went 3-1 at 4 PM, then Sunday Night and Monday Night.
I’m not saying vegas will necessarily get their equal but opposite revenge this week, but I’m definitely looking to lean and play dogs this week.
Plays:
NY Jets +7 at New England. I really like this play as it appears that New England steps up for good teams, but plays down to their completion the next game. The Jets are coming off a bye and had 2 weeks to review film of the first meeting where New England absolutely crushed the Jets 25-6 as a 5.5 pt road favorite back in week 2. Only a 7 point home favorite now huh? Okay.
Fundamentals wise, Zach Wilson has more experience under his belt, Jamison Crowder will be playing in this one, and Damien Harris is banged up on the Patriots side.
NY Giants +3 vs. Carolina. This line is actually a bit high considering Carolina has lost 3 in a row following that 3-0 start. But I like this spot for the Giants who are reeling from injuries to Saquon and Toney, and Daniel Jones coming off that concussion and two straight blowout losses by 24 and 27 points. The Giants are better than their 1-5 record looks on paper. Carolina just went to OT last week and had that heartbreaker after tying the game. I probably should look into how teams that went to OT have done this season. I’d like to see those stats.
Sterling Shepard was a late scratch today. Wow the Giants are gonna be thin on weapons.
New Orleans -4.5 at Seattle. Valiant effort by the veteran Geno Smith last week. He made some good throws, but I think the cover had more to do with the ineptitude of Big Ben than Geno. Big Ben should have had a field day on that defense, but instead it was checkdowns all game. Big Ben is obviously done and retiring after this season. He’s got nothing left and still won the game. I like Sean Payton off a bye, and I’ll fade the backup in his second game. Alvin Kamara should have no problems running on Seattle behind a better offensive line than Pittsburgh. And Jameis should be able to hit the big play against that poor pass defense.
Injuries wise, Alex Collins will probably be a gametime decision, and he’s already the backup. Carson is on IR. Rashaad Penny will be back.
I'm becoming a bit iffy on this one, as it's actually quite a high line. Need to revisit this one.
Atlanta -2.5 at Miami. The line movement is similar to Minnesota at Carolina last week where Minnesota opened as a 1 pt road dog and closed as a 2.5 pt favorite. Not the same situation though, and Atlanta has the better record and is coming off their bye. The Deshaun Watson trade does factor into this game. Will Tua even be the quarterback this week or is he getting shipped off before the game? Apparently Houston doesn’t even want Tua and he would go to a third team for a pick. Does that light a fire under the second year QB? Initial lean was Atlanta here, but I may flip depending on if/when a trade goes down.
I'll pull the trigger on Atlanta. No trade went down, and I think it was just hype. Whoever gets Watson may not even be able to play him this season. And they'll need a third team to give them a pick for Tua, and I heard no one really wants him.
Cincinnati +6.5 at Baltimore. Blowout victories for both teams last week, similar to Chargers/Baltimore game, but there’s nobody saying Cincinnati is a top team, or the better team in this scenario. But they’ve quietly gone 4-2 this season, and are a made kick against Green Bay away from being 5-1. I think the days of fading Cincy on the road are over. This is obviously a new regime with Burrow at QB. This reminds me of the Pittsburgh game last year when Baltimore was giving 7 at home and I took Baltimore because I thought the line was too high for similar teams in the division. Baltimore has their bye next week. Not sure if I can see them going 6-1 into that. Cincinnati has a franchise QB, franchise RB, young and productive WRs and a surprisingly good defense to stay competitive in this game.
Washington +8.5 at Green Bay. It may be too many dogs at this point, but I do like this game. Washington off two straight losses, and completely falling apart second half against KC. Looks kinda like a possible teaser buster here with GB giving 8.5 at home. I believe this line opened around 10.5 and was driven down pretty quickly. I read Aaron Rodgers’ completion percentage against pressure is way down this season. Time for Washington’s pass rushers to show up.
I said last week that Washington usually gets blown out by SB contenders, but they actually have played Green Bay well in the past. Maybe it’s because Rodgers hasn’t had any weapons outside of Davante Adams for a long time.
On the injuries side, Mclaurin is banged up again, but played on Sunday. Antonio Gibson is banged up as well, but still played last Sunday as well. Green Bay is developing a nice two headed attack with Aaron Jones and emerging AJ Dillon, but they’ve had that in the past with Jones and Jamaal Williams.
Leans:
Detroit +15.5 at LA Rams. 0-6 team vs a 5-1 team on the road. Line seems a bit high because Detroit isn’t that bad, but they were blown out last week and LA blew out the Giants. Does Goff’s inside knowledge of the Rams system help him exploit their defense this week? Or does McVay who was the brains behind Goff’s rise to the super bowl exploit his known weaknesses? The Rams have are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 following victories of 14 pts of more. Feels like a possible letdown spot here. A lot of emotions for Stafford.
Houston +17.5 at Arizona. I’m monitoring Tyrod Taylor’s status on this one, but it doesn’t look good for now. Not sure if I could bet Davis Mills again after that Buffalo debacle even if the line was 20+ in this situation. Deshaun Watson may get traded this week, but that’s been going on all season, and I don’t think it factors in here at all.
It's gonna take major cajones to take Houston is this spot. I don't think I will, but if you're ever gonna bet Davis Mills, this is not a bad spot to do it. Arizona has Green Bay next Thursday night, and this is the definition of a lookahead spot.
Tampa Bay -11.5 vs Chicago. I'm flipping my pick on this game. Last season TB lost at Chicago as a 3.5 point road dog, and the line is up above that. I do like that Tampa Bay has some key injuries bringing the game into question. Double Digits favorites have done well this season, and there's 4 of them this week. I like the other double digit dogs to cover more.
Correction, there's 3 double digit favorites this week. Green Bay opened at -10.5 and it now around -8 I believe.
Philly +3 at LV Raiders. Pickem game with a 4-2 team at home vs. a 2-4 team? Raiders looked good last week in their situational spot with the new coach. Philly with the long rest after the flukey 2 pt conversion backdoor cover against Tampa Bay. Sometimes a line reeks a little too much for my taste though. This one definitely gives me pause. Philly definitely has had their moments this season, and their offense can be explosive at times. I’ll need to look into this game some more.
Despite the write-up, I think I'm gonna flip this game to Raiders -2.5. Something feels wrong about it.
Kansas City -4 at Tennessee. Not my pick, but it's a system play and I'll give it a shot. Tennessee won a big game Monday night. But the winner of Monday Night is 5-0 ATS in their next game this season......
No Plays:
Chicago +12.5 at Tampa Bay. Surprisingly, Tom Brady committed a Cardinal sin and joked about how Aaron Rodgers owned the Bears last week. That’s what happens when Belichick isn’t around to take the fun away. Despite the loss and non-cover vs. Green Bay last week, Chicago has quietly been winning games with Justin Fields at QB. The defense has really shown up in their victories.
Chicago beat Tampa Bay last year as a 3.5 pt home dog, and it looks like the line has been adjusted above that currently. So this is a small lean but I’m probably going to take this one off as a no play.
Tampa Bay missing Gronkowski, Antonio Brown, Lavonte David, and Richard Sherman.
As always, plays are subject to change up until kickoff, and I will need to move some of these leans into the play column.
2020 Season
8-9 Plays
5-7 Leans